It generates many of the raw materials needed for global technology production.

China not only has significant reserves of mineral resources, but also leads the world in the production of many of them. This gives it a geopolitical B as a source of essential resources for global technological production.

▲Satellite image [NASA].

article / Gabriel Ros Casis [English version] [English version].

With a vast territory like China's, it is obvious that it possesses a wealth of raw materials and natural resources. Throughout China's history, this has become a strong geopolitical asset, not only for the country's own development , but also for its trading partners through exports. Today, when we talk about these raw materials, China stands out in two main groups: base metals and technological elements.

The base metals group essentially comprises five metals from the periodic table, namely iron, copper, aluminum, magnesium and zinc (sometimes lead and tin are also included). There is no need to recall that we can find all these metals in everyday objects, and that they have been the backbone of industry for a long time. Therefore, every country needs them, placing those with the largest deposits of these metals at a strategic advantage. But a country's mineral wealth is not always given by this condition, as it can also be measured by the ease and feasibility of extracting the product. In the case of China, both arguments would be valid, since the country has the largest deposits of many of these minerals, with magnesium leading the way (79% of global extractions) followed by tin (43%) and zinc (31%).

As far as technological metals are concerned, it is important to note that they include various minerals, such as rare earths, precious metals, as well as semiconductors. From a quantitative approach , the required amount of these metals is minimal, even though their availability is crucial for the production of today's technology. For example, some of the most common technological metals include lithium, yttrium, palladium, cerium and neodymium, which can easily be found in cell phone batteries, medicines, magnets or catalysts. Once again, China leads the way with the largest deposits of several of these elements, especially tungsten (83%), followed by rare earths (78%) and molybdenum (38%).

From this we can conclude that China not only has the largest deposits, but is also the world's largest exporter. In addition to extraction, this country also refines and manufactures components with minerals such as aluminum, copper and certain rare earths, and in some cases even manufactures the final product.

Therefore, it must be taken into account that extraction brings with it certain consequences. Environmentally, extraction always has an impact on the land, perhaps less in China compared to other countries (due to the size of its territory), but equally significant. From an economic approach , these extractions entail a great cost, but which, properly managed, can generate an immense benefit. In the political scenario, they are seen as an important geopolitical advantage, creating dependence on the demand of other countries.

As a conclusion, it can be drawn from this that China has great power in terms of raw material resources, but this carries with it a great responsibility, since a substantial part of the raw materials used for almost all the world's technology production depends on this country, which provides the resources, but also manufactures them.

Bulgaria's semester focuses on refugee crisis and Western Balkans

Bulgaria's presidency of the European Union, in addition to advancing in the concretization of the 'Brexit', puts on the table particularly sensitive issues for Central and Eastern Europe, such as the migratory routes that enter Europe through the southeast of the continent and the advisability of the future integration of the states born of the former Yugoslavia, of which so far only Croatia has joined the EU.

▲European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov [Nikolay Doychinov-Bulgarian Presidency].

article / Paula Ulibarrena García

During this first semester of 2018, for the first time, Bulgaria holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) committee . The Bulgarian presidency has as its main challenges the management of the migration crisis and the Brexit negotiations. A special goal is to focus on the Western Balkans. During the semester, Bulgaria hopes to take the final steps towards the euro and to join the Schengen area.

Under the slogan "Unity is strength", Bulgaria - the poorest country in the EU - has set itself an ambitious diary until June. The Bulgarian government, formed by the conservative populist GERB party and the ultra-nationalist Patriotic Front, has set out to help make the European bloc stronger, more stable and more united.

To this end, Sofia wants to foster consensus, cohesion and competitiveness, with the specific challenge of overcoming existing differences in the handling of the refugee crisis. Given the rejection by several partners of quotas for the relocation of asylum seekers, Bulgaria will seek "a sustainable system for managing immigration," with "common rules that are enforced," the Bulgarian presidency program highlights.

Migration crisis

Dialogue with third countries to facilitate the return of migrants without the right to asylum and the strengthening of external border control are some of the measures planned by the executive led by the Bulgarian Prime Minister, the conservative populist Boiko Borisov.

Bulgaria's position on the Syrian refugee crisis is that the adoption of a mechanism for relocating refugees is only a provisional solution. The government in Sofia believes that a lasting and solid solution must be found under which to limit the pressure on the EU's external borders and the secondary migration resulting from it. It proposes that the EU should work as a matter of priority and urgency together with its EU partners with a view to stabilizing the countries of origin and helping the transit countries. Bulgaria, which has Turkey as a neighbor, considers Turkey to be a core topic for the resolution of the problem and suggests that the EU should take urgent measures to strengthen Turkey's capacity to receive refugees. Bulgaria has always been keen that the agreements should provide for Turkey to take in refugees that the EU can refund from Greece.

For Sofia, it is necessary to clarify the distinction between economic migrants and refugees and to move towards "solidarity mechanisms" that are acceptable to all member states, recalling in this regard the failure of the mandatory quota system for the relocation of refugees in Italy and Greece.

Western Balkans

Another priority of the Bulgarian presidency is to place the countries of the Western Balkans in the sights of an EU that for the time being is not considering any further enlargement. Some countries in the region, such as Serbia and Montenegro, are actively negotiating their entrance, which they hope will take place within the next five years. Meanwhile, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Macedonia and Kosovo are still waiting to formally start negotiations.

Among the nearly 300 meetings planned during the Bulgarian EU presidency, a special summit on May 17-18 between EU leaders and these six aspirants stands out.

"The European project will not be complete without the integration of the Balkans," warned the Bulgarian Presidency's manager minister, Lilyana Pavlova. Bulgaria insists on the desirability of helping a European region still marked by the political instability of the new small states that emerged after the Yugoslav war.

After Croatia's integration into the European Union on July 1, 2013, it is logical that other countries of the former Yugoslavia intend to follow. Montenegro (which even has a bilateral agreement with Bulgaria for technical-political attendance on the topic) and Albania are already official candidates, and Serbia and Macedonia will probably soon be invited.

Economics, stability of institutions and democratic transparency have always been and will always be decisive factors in the integration process. For this reason, today, the question of the development of the Balkans and the region of Southeast Europe is very present in the European diary , since the big donors of the European budgets do not forget the problems caused by the integration of countries such as Poland, Hungary, Romania or Bulgaria itself. In fact, four countries in the area are subject to the economic policy of the Union: Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is still under European protectorate, and Kosovo, without official recognition by several governments, including two members of the Security committee (China and Russia) and five EU members (Spain, Greece, Slovakia, Cyprus and Romania), are excluded from this possible integration for the time being. In addition, the level of unemployment in the Western Balkans is quite high compared to Bulgaria and Romania, with the combined average for the four candidates being around 25%.

On the other hand, with the disintegration of the Soviet bloc and the war in the Balkans, the socioeconomic systems collapsed and the transition period resulted not only in growing inequalities, but also in the absence of legality and effective government. The consequence of all this has been in many countries of the area the important role played by black money in Economics. Bulgaria leads this sad record, with an informal sector accounting for 31% of the Economics, closely followed by Romania and Croatia, whose underground Economics accounts for 28%, and Greece, with 24%. The problem lies in the question of the extent to which underground Economics and illegal trafficking channels in southeastern Europe can pose a danger to the security of the other countries of the Union. For this reason, the efforts of the candidate countries to improve democratic Structures , governance, transparency and control of capital flows will be an important factor to be taken into account in the negotiations.

Brexit, Schengen and corruption

The decisive phase of negotiations on the UK's exit from the EU is expected to begin under the Bulgarian presidency, following the progress noted in early December by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Sofia wants to become acoordinator neutralcoordinator " in this process, according to Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.

The progress in the digital Economics of the continent after the impulse given to this topic by the outgoing Estonian presidency, as well as in the banking union, are other core topic of the Bulgarian diary . The Balkan country will also defend the cohesion policy and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which will be affected by the loss of funds due to the Brexit.

At the same time, Bulgaria aspires to enter during its EU presidency in the "anteroom" of the euro zone and join the Schengen area, of free community circulation, a step blocked until now due to the lack of progress made by Bulgaria in the fight against corruption and organized crime. The Balkan country, considered the most corrupt in the EU, took eleven years to approve its first anti-corruption law, adopted last December 20, less than two weeks before assuming its EU presidency. Unlike what happened in neighboring Romania, so far Bulgarian justice has not investigated or convicted any politician for corruption cases.

Air connectivity

The International Air Transport association (IATA) called for a renewed policy approach to strengthen Europe's aviation competitiveness at the Bulgarian presidency of the EU. There is an urgent need to strategically plan for the capacity needed to meet the growing demand for global connectivity, environmental improvements and regulation of infrastructure costs.

IATA forecasts a 6 percent expansion of air travel demand in Europe in 2018. "Operating an airline in Europe is challenging. There are high costs and regulatory burdens. Infrastructure capacity is often not sufficient and charges for using airports have doubled across Europe in the last decade. The Bulgarian government has put competitiveness and connectivity at the center of its EU Presidency diary . This will drive greater competitiveness and prosperity for European economies, but only if individual EU member states follow through by adopting policies that promote air connectivity," said Rafael Schvartzman, regional vice president of IATA Europe, at the IATA Bulgaria Aviation Day in Sofia.

Bulgaria occupies a strategically important position as Europe's entrance to Turkey and beyond to Asia. It is also a fast-growing market in its own right, with passenger issue set to double in the next 20 years. This is a challenge for the country's air traffic management , and the Bulgarian air navigation services provider BULATSA.

A country with many conditions to have a great weight in Europe, but weighed down by Russia's proximity to it

If the border between the West and the area of Russian domination divided Germany during the Cold War, today that border runs through Ukraine. The open conflict with Russia hampers the objective conditions for Ukraine's great development . The country is paying a high price for the desire to preserve its independence.

▲Pro-European protesters in the central place in Kiev, during the riots in late 2013 [Evgeny Feldman].

article / Alona Sainetska [English version].

Ukraine, a sovereign and independent state (since 1991), located in Eastern Europe, with the second largest area (after Russia) of the European countries (576,550 km² without the Crimean peninsula) and with a long history of struggle to preserve its identity, is today the center of tensions between Russia and the West. In 2014 Moscow wanted to compensate for the fall of the pro-Russian government in Kiev by annexing the Crimean peninsula. It was then that Ukraine aroused global interest. The Ukrainians finally achieved a prominence commensurate with the size of their country, although they would undoubtedly have wanted to do so with a different headline subject .

1. WHAT DRIVES FORWARD

Considering its geographical position and its strategic, economic and military weight, it is difficult to justify that before the outbreak of the conflict Ukraine was not for many more a fuzzy place on the map. The country is surrounded by Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, and has direct access to the Black Sea. This central location makes it very clear that Ukraine should play an important role in the context of international relations.

Agriculture

Ukraine's rich and fertile soil is known as black soil or "Chornozem". The agricultural area used covers 70% of the arable land, or about 42 million hectares, and is capable of feeding 500 million people. The country, with its 46 million inhabitants, therefore has considerable potential for production, processing, consumption and export of agricultural and organic products. It is already one of the leading countries in the agricultural sector and can be considered a "green vein" in the heart of Europe.

It is the leading producer and exporter of sunflower oil, 30% of whose exports go to India and 16% to China. Ukraine also produces large quantities of wheat, of which it is the world's sixth largest exporter. It produces wheat and corn flour for food production, which it exports to France, Poland and Belarus, among others. It is also one of the leaders in poultry production, the issue of which grew by more than 55 % between 2000 and 2011; its exports go mainly to Iraq and the EU and to seventy other countries.

Industry and logistics infrastructure

Ukraine also has an aircraft industry, although lack of investment is holding back its large-scale development . However, examples such as Antonov's Mriya-225, the world's largest cargo aircraft built during the Soviet era and capable of carrying up to 250 tons, speak of its potential while awaiting investment.

On the other hand, it is worth mentioning that Ukraine is ideally suited to be a hub for international trade, mainly between the European Union, the Middle East and Asia. Five out of ten European transport corridors cross the Ukrainian territory; Ukraine has the most extensive railway networks in Europe that handle a substantial part of passenger and freight traffic; moreover, its road network covers the entire territory of the country and enables deliveries to any point of destination. Last but not least, there is the natural gas transmission system, led by the Ukrtransgasbusiness , dedicated to the transmission and storage of natural gas in Ukraine. In 2013 it transported 132 billion cubic meters (bcm), including 86 bcm for the EU and Moldova. Ukrtransgas owns Europe's largest subway gas storage network with a total capacity of 31 bcm and consists of 14 subsidiary units operating in Ukraine.

2. WHAT HOLDS BACK DEVELOPMENT

However, the country continues to be underestimated by other players on the international chessboard and this exposes it to Russian ambitions. These are manifested in numerous obstacles that make it difficult for Ukraine to gain weight in the aforementioned sectors of trade, industry, agriculture and transport. There are also other factors that hinder the country's development .

Interest from Russia

Russia's interest in its neighbor to the west is mainly due to strategic reasons, since Ukraine is a fundamental piece for any expansion of the former Russian imperial power. Therefore, Russia seeks to strengthen its influence in Ukraine through economic expansion, control over the maritime border, installation of Russian military instructions and Russian occupation troops in the territory, expansion of interference in Ukraine's information space, influence of the Russian church, etc. Another of the measures attributed to Moscow is the placement of people close to it in positions of power in Ukraine: the Kremlin wanted to take advantage of the presidency of V. Yanukovych, a pro-Russian politician.

Internal instability

Today the future of Ukraine is as uncertain as ever. Economic and political reforms have failed to overcome the country's serious structural problems, the fight against corruption is weak, and the insignificant international support further diminishes the already leave expectation that Ukraine can overcome the crisis in a short time. Given the absence of other means to put pressure on Russia than sanctions, and in view of the fact that those that have been applied have hardly changed the Kremlin's attitude, it is safe to say that normalization of the status is far away on the horizon.

All this is reflected in the growing popular discontent. 90% of Ukrainians disapprove of the current government's management , express the desire for new elections and show their refusal to allow the regions closest to Russia to participate in the country's political life. Desperation means that the only institutions the Ukrainian people trust are the army, the church and volunteers.

The "frozen" conflict

On the other hand, the "frozen conflict" in the east of the country continues to undermine the state budget . Defense and security spending accounted for 5% of GDP last year, a high figure that includes the government's efforts to create a new army. According to President Petro Poroshenko, this was one of the many reasons for the failure to raise citizens' living standards. Overall, the prospects for a Ukrainian victory in a war to regain full sovereignty over its eastern lands appear dim, given Russia's support for the rebels and Ukraine's fear of an internal counter-reaction. A vicious circle is thus generated, so that as long as there is no successful end to the war, economic and political tension on the Kiev government will increase and could lead to a new Maidan, the popular revolt that collapsed the government in 2014.

The geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West in Ukraine has been detrimental to all parties involved, but especially to the Ukrainian state. Declining cross-border trade, weakening currencies and stock markets, and increased security risks have affected the entire region. Poverty is growing at the same pace as the standard of living of citizens is declining and market prices are rising. As a result, Ukrainians are unable to take advantage of the opportunities granted to them, as is the clear example of the visa exemption between Ukraine and the European Union (approved in May 2017), which many have not been able to use as they have been unable to finance their travel.

3. THE NECESSARY BALANCE

Ukraine's geopolitical priority is to gain independence from Russia, which means breaking economic ties with it. This is an unbalanced and costly battle for the Ukrainians, who face the destruction of their own Economics, the defeat of the elites and the impoverishment of the population.

This strategy of Ukrainian state development is increasingly based on the concepts of radical nationalism. But the report historical antecedents, such as the Holodomor (the great famine of the 1930s), warns of the enormous power of the Russian "hegemon" and suggests the need to serve the national interest through a sort of balance between ultimate goals and medium-term diplomacy.

The new EU cooperation program should lead to increased investment in security and defense.

After seven long years of hibernation, the European Union's Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), whose mission statement is to achieve greater convergence in security and defense matters, was launched on December 11. The initiative represents a leap forward in the process of European integration, overcoming the stage of stagnation and doubts brought about by the last economic and financial crisis.

▲Soldiers carrying the flag of the European Union in front of the EU institutions, in 2014 [European Parliament].

article / Manuel Lamela Gallego

The same year in which the 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome was commemorated ended with a certain sense of vindication and reaffirmation on the part of the European Union and its Member States, having succeeded against all odds in generating investment and cooperation in the areas of security and defense. The implementation of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) is the answer to the urgent need for investment in these two areas, a need that the EU has had for decades and that not even the failure in the Balkans managed to address.

We speak of reaffirmation in the face of the evident crisis that the European Union has suffered in recent years, in which it has seen how doubts have arisen about its own continuity. Despite this delicate status, the EU has acted with admirable flexibility and has considered its own role on the world stage with the goal continuing to make a positive difference in the world. It is in this context of reflection and change that we should frame the launch of PESCO.

To this recent loss of credibility must be added the collection of "failures" accumulated by the EU in generating a common defense strategy. The words of Javier Solana in 2003 when he acknowledged the failure and fracture of the Union in the management of the Iraq crisis generated a shadow of impotence and ineptitude that the EU has not been able to shake off so far. The implementation of PESCO is a great flash of light in the European action towards the outside world, since it shows the unity within the European project in such a delicate area as security and defense.   

In this way, and in compliance with the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty, on November 13, and after several months of insistence by the European committee , 23 Member States signed a notification that represents the first step towards the implementation of the Permanent Structured Cooperation. This moment was declared "historic" by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini. This is undoubtedly a turning point in the history of the European Union, since after several decades it has managed to break with the trend that reduced European cooperation to the field of economic integration. PESCO aspires to lay the foundations from which, with truly binding projects, common and shared strategies can be generated that will gradually shape the new Europe of security and defense. In its measure, Permanent Structured Cooperation is positioned like the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) Commission, whose decision-making dimension was one of the pillars for the expansion of European supranationalism into other, more ambitious areas.      

Legal basis

The legal basis for PESCO is found in Articles 42(6) and 46, together with protocol issue 10, of the Lisbon Treaty (2009).

article 42(6): "Member States which fulfil higher criteria of military capabilities and which have entered into more binding commitments in the subject to perform the most demanding tasks shall establish permanent structured cooperation within the framework the Union. This cooperation shall be governed by article 46 and shall not affect the provisions of article 43".

If anything should be emphasized about the Permanent Structured Cooperation, it is its binding nature, so that the States will be truly bound by their commitments, as we can see in article 46(4): "If a participating Member State no longer meets the criteria or can no longer assume the commitments referred to in Articles 1 and 2 of the protocol on Permanent Structured Cooperation, the committee may adopt a decision suspending the participation of that State".

PESCO's lack of influence over state sovereignty is one of its fundamental characteristics. This is clearly reflected in articles 46(5) and 46(6) of the Lisbon Treaty. The first clarifies the steps to be taken by a member state to leave the project: it need only notify the committee its withdrawal. The second deals with decision-making within the Permanent Structured Cooperation: decisions will be taken unanimously, in a unanimity constituted by the votes of the representatives of all the Member States participating in PESCO.

2% expense

On December 11, the European committee finally decided to launch PESCO, an initiative joined by Ireland and Portugal, bringing the issue of members to 25 countries. This led to the adoption of the first 17 projects on which the participating states are committed to cooperate and which will be formally adopted by the committee in 2018. These projects will cover various areas of European security and defense, such as troop training or the standardization and facilitation of cross-border military transport (the latter has been in high demand by NATO in recent years). Apart from this list of projects, it is worth mentioning the commitment of the States to steadily and continuously increase defense budgets in real terms. After several years of economic and financial recession in most European states, defense spending falls short of the 2% of GDP agreed at the NATO summit in Wales in 2014. This is undoubtedly one of the most important tasks that PESCO has to fulfill in order to continue with a stable development .

The Permanent Structured Cooperation initiative was taken by France, Germany, Spain and Italy, which confirms the functioning of the two-speed Europe, although the project has finally been joined by practically the entire Union, with the only absences being Malta, Denmark (which does not participate in European defense) and obviously the United Kingdom, which is planning to leave in March 2019. It remains to be seen whether this high participation does not jeopardize the initial ambition of the project. Although the very nature of PESCO facilitates the coexistence of the two Europes as long as the minimum commitments are met.

The friction that PESCO and NATO may have or the future position that the United Kingdom will hold in European defense after its exit from the EU are other questions that PESCO raises. Only its implementation will dispel these uncertainties. Leaving these doubts aside for a moment, what can be affirmed is that Permanent Structured Cooperation opens up a wide horizon and that it is exclusively in the hands of European citizens to take advantage of it.

As the current French Minister of Economics and Finance, Bruno le Maire, says: "Europe is not a certainty, it is a fight".

bibliography

Council of the EU. (11 December 2017). consilium.europa.eu. Retrieved from Cooperation in defense subject : press statement .

Council of the European Union, (2017). Legislative acts and other instruments (PESCO), (p. 20). Brussels.

European Union (2009). Treaty of Lisbon. Lisbon, Portugal.

The Council and the High Representative of foreign affairs and security policy (2017). Notification on Permanent Structured Cooperation, (p. 10).

Examination of the reformulation of Castro's economic model attempted by Fidel's successor

Next April, a year and a half after Fidel Castro's death, his brother Raul plans to leave the presidency of Cuba, where he has been for a decade. His bequest is the attempt to extend the Castro regime in time by means of the forced economic reorganization of the island. But the restrictions of the reforms themselves, the slowness of their implementation and the fact that they are not accompanied by greater political freedom, have limited the effect of the changes. In any case, they may be a good starting point for the next president, if he really wants to move towards a full opening.

article / Valeria Vásquez

Raúl Castro replaced his brother Fidel as president of Cuba's State committee in 2008. Since then, the island has undergone changes in its organization, although without abandoning its communist structure or the revolutionary principles set in motion in 1959. Upon his arrival to power, Castro made the decision to embark on a path of structural reforms to "update" the Cuban economic-social model and overcome the serious economic crisis.

As part of this program, Raúl Castro approved a series of social and economic reforms of a "transformative" nature, which tended to introduce market mechanisms, while maintaining adherence to socialist principles based on centralized planning (and without accompanying these changes with political liberalization). Revitalization was the main goal of the reforms in the economic sphere, turning around what had been a policy with a totally socialist approach and rejection of free market reforms.

Ten years after the changeover between the Castros brothers, the Cuban regime is preparing for the arrival in April of the first president from outside the family. Although it has not yet been confirmed who the new president will be, it is expected that the current vice-president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, will be the one appointed as part of a continuity.

The country is currently at a disadvantage, with the political uncertainty about the new stage that is opening, the serious economic difficulties that Venezuela (the main benefactor country of the island for more than a decade) is going through, and the truncated foreign expectations that the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House meant a year ago.

update of the economic model

Since 1959, the Cuban economic model has been based on revolutionary socialist principles. Since Raúl Castro came to power, however, a transformation process was undertaken, considered necessary to move forward an Economics that was stagnant and immersed in a serious crisis.

In reality, there was no substantial modification of the economic model , but rather an update it, maintaining the predominance of central state planning and state ownership over the laws of the free market. The goal of this process has been to guarantee the continuity and irreversibility of socialism, as stated by the Cuban authorities, as well as to promote the economic development of the country and improve the standard of living of the population.

The reform framework was approved at the VI congress of the Cuban Communist Party, held in 2011. Among other points, the approved agreements established the submission of a usufruct to peasants and cooperatives, and opened the door to the massive dismissal of hundreds of state employees. The reform guidelines, however, did not establish the specific role that the state and state-owned sector should play in the Economics.

The so-called update of the Cuban model has achieved the expansion of the market and of non-state properties, but in an Economics that continues to be conditioned by state planning, this measure continues to be inefficient, as it happened in China or Vietnam. Although state business continues to prevail (in a more decentralized form, through self-financing and without fiscal subsidies), the private sector has become more flexible, but the heavy taxes on this sector continue to hinder its development.

Land in usufruct

One of the main pillars of the Castro government's reforms was the submission in usufruct of idle state lands to peasants and cooperatives, with the purpose of reducing imports and increasing production. The usufructuaries have obtained the right to cultivate these lands and to keep what they harvest, but the State continues to maintain ownership and may terminate the contract for reasons of public interest.

The regulation was carried out through two laws: a first one, in 2008, subject to many restrictions and actually disadvantageous for farmers; and a second one, in 2012, more flexible, through which the government expanded the size of the plot (from 13 to 67 hectares), approved the planting of orchards and forests, and also allowed the construction of houses next to the land (previously prohibited).

In March 2011, the government reported that 128,000 usufructs, totaling 1.2 million hectares, had already been handed over. In any case, although the 2012 law was less restrictive than the previous one, as mentioned above, it still included certain obstacles that discouraged farmers' involvement: they recorded gains, but only after overcoming various obstacles.

Mass dismissal of civil servants and self-employment

At the beginning of 2011, the state payroll presented an "inflated" rate, with millions of state employees in precarious jobs and work conditions. For this reason, Raúl Castro promoted the dismissal of 500,000 surplus state workers between October 2010 and March 2011, which raised the unemployment rate to 12%. To counteract this measure, 250,000 self-employed jobs were created in a first stage and other private activities were also promoted.

This measure was necessary to raise labor productivity, reduce expenses and increase wages. The agreements of the 6th CCP congress allowed the approval of 178 self-employed activities: many of them were very specific and unskilled (such as forklift drivers or bath attendants), and a few were skilled (such as translators or insurance agents). This made private work more flexible.

Thus, in a country with a labor force of 5 million people, of the total of 11.2 million who reside on the island, a total of 4.2 million of those who work are state employees and the rest are located in the non-state sector, made up of agricultural cooperatives, private farmers and self-employed [1]. The latter now number 500,000 people. Despite this development of what is known in Cuba as "cuestapropismo", there are restrictions that prevent most professionals from working on their own in their profession, and this reduces the human capital available to boost the country's Economics .

Openness to foreign investment

The flow of investments from abroad has not accompanied the reforms promoted by Raúl Castro, which has been one of the major obstacles to the desired success. To attract these foreign investments, the Special development Zone Mariel (ZEDM) was inaugurated in 2013. The port of Mariel, located 45 kilometers west of Havana, was allocated a 465.4 square kilometer industrial zone and an advanced ship terminal. The purpose was to convert the ZEDM, through the existence of incentives to attract investment, into the main entrance for foreign trade and the largest industrial structure in Cuba [2]. However, four years after its inauguration, the results have not been as expected. In an administrative process that has followed an extraordinarily slow pace, today only 33 companies have C installed, which is far from the 2.5 billion dollars that the ZEDM planned to attract annually.

The restoration of diplomatic relations with Washington carried out at the end of the Obama Administration has not accelerated investments from the United States or other Western countries. In addition to the U.S. embargo remaining in place, the Trump Administration has reversed provisions passed by his predecessor that opened a timid door to greater economic engagement.

economic status

Raul Castro's reform plan has not been as successful as expected, mainly due to the Degree restriction that regulates them. The lack of the intended economic revitalization has manifested itself in the poor performance of Cuban Economics in recent years. In 2016, Cuba fell into recession, with an economic decrease of 0.9%. In 2017, it was able to recover slightly (figures not yet closed speak of a 1.6% increase in GDP) thanks to a boom in tourism and better agricultural results.

In the last decade, tourism has been precisely one of the assets of the Cuban Economics . agreement to an ECLACreport , tourism to the island grew by 11.9% in 2017, with 4.7 million visitors. This increase includes the largest issue of visits from the United States, made possible by the elimination of restrictions approved by Obama, but that Trump has reimposed.

On the other hand, Cuba maintains its chronic trade deficit. Although in 2016 it managed to reduce it to 9.6% of GDP, prospects are not good, given Venezuela's difficulties to continue supplying oil, practically on a sunk cost basis. In 2015, Venezuela was Cuba's main trading partner , with which it maintains 36% of its foreign trade, in an exchange valued at 4 billion dollars. It is followed by China, with 28%, a country that sells under soft credit conditions to the island.

bequest and new challenges

As Raúl Castro's presidency draws to a close, Cuba finds itself in an unfavorable status , with an Economics that is struggling to emerge from stagnation and a program of structural reforms that have been insufficient to solve the partner problems accumulated during more than 60 years of centralized state socialism. The timid nature and slow pace of economic reforms have not helped to revive Economics.

However, during his decade in power, Castro has led changes in the management of the model, something that should be taken into account even though in the political sphere he has perpetuated the lack of freedom and the persecution of opposition activity, without underestimating the moral guilt of the dictatorship. Among the changes that have taken place are the opening to foreign investment, new diplomatic relations, participation in Latin American forums and the immersion of Cubans in work .

Probably forced by circumstances, Raúl Castro was able to break some of the obstacles and ideological barriers that his brother Fidel had implemented on the island for more than 40 years in power. The bequest of the outgoing president marks a certain progress, but it will be the actions of the incoming president that will indicate whether Cuba is truly moving towards the economic -and political- opening longed for by Cubans.

[1] VIDAL, P. and PÉREZ Villanueva, Omar E. "Se extiende el cuentrapropismo en Cuba". Espacio Laical, vol. 6, n. 3 (2010), p. 53-58.

[2] HERSHBERG, E., & LEOGRANDE, W. M. (2016). A new chapter in US-Cuba relations: social, political, and economic implications. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Introduction to the cooperation project of 12 EU countries located between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas.

In addition to the East-West integration efforts inherent in the enlargement of the European Union, several North-South connection initiatives have been added between the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, such as the Three Seas Initiative. The goal is to overcome the deficit in road infrastructure and improve connections between these nations, which will enhance cooperation in the region and in the EU as a whole.

▲First meeting of the new forum, in the Croatian city of Dubrovnik, in August 2016 [i3].

article / Paula Ulibarrena

What is it and what is its purpose?

It is an initiative of Poland and Croatia that brings together 12 countries located between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas and is therefore also known as the Baltic, Adriatic, Black Sea (BABS) Initiative.

The main goal is to promote greater cooperation between these countries of the European Union in the development infrastructure, economic development , economic cooperation and, above all, in energy resources. Polish President Andrzej Duda expressed the hope that the Three Seas Initiative will contribute to the modernization, integration and unification of Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the entire European Union.

How and where was this forum born?

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, much progress has been made towards a united, free and peaceful Europe. The entrance of Central European countries entrance the European Union and NATO has contributed to the security, stability and prosperity of the entire continent. But this work is far from complete. And the cohesive role played by infrastructure will be crucial in achieving this.

For more than half a century, efforts to develop European connections and infrastructure focused on the East-West axis. After the fall of the Wall, governments in the region focused on integrating their economies into Western markets, leaving the development of a North-South interregional infrastructure on the back burner. After decades of disinvestment, a major effort has been made in the last twenty years to catch up: 5,600 kilometers of freeway have been built. But the imbalance between the two Europes is still notorious: a citizen of old Europe has, on average, twice as many kilometers of freeway as a citizen of Central Europe.

With the goal of reversing the status, the presidents of Poland and Croatia, Andrzej Duda and Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, respectively, launched in 2015 a project for the construction of energy, transport and telecommunications infrastructure in Central Europe. They called it the Three Seas initiative.

By whom is it formed?

The initiative aims to modernize economic links between the twelve EU nations located between the Baltic, the Black Sea and the Adriatic Sea (Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia). This region accounts for 28% of the European Union's territory and 22% of its population. But it accounts for only 10% of its GDP.

In 2016 Poland and Croatia were joined by most Eastern European countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and Romania. Thus a north-south axis that, with the exception of Austria, corresponds to the former communist countries.

The so-called Three Seas Initiative held its first session on August 25-26, 2016 in Dubrovnik and ended with a declaration of cooperation in economic subject , especially in the field of energy, transport and communications. In addition to the member countries, representatives of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the US National Security committee attended as guests.

The second meeting took place on July 6-7, 2017 in Warsaw, with US President Donald Trump as a guest. In fact this visit meant a certain snub to other EU countries.

The third meeting will take place in Romania in 2018, although the city has not yet been fixed.

How is it financed?

150 billion from the Structural Funds, plus additional money from the Connecting Europe Facility and the European Investment Bank. However, more than 384 billion still needs to be invested in another 2,000 projects to fill in or modernize these corridors.

An investment of this amount is beyond the possibilities of public institutions, so both infrastructure companies and financial institutions will have to play a fundamental role. To date, this subject of financing has been much less important than state contributions. However, the increase in public debt makes it increasingly interesting to rely on sources that minimize the impact on public accounts.

Projection

Faced with this magnitude of resource requirements, the question arises as to whether Central Europe is really an attractive market for investment. In this respect, two points can be made. This is a region with, firstly, very good economic growth prospects (it is expected to outpace Old Europe over the next five years), and secondly, with a construction sector that is expected to grow at an average annual average of 3.1% (compared to 2.3% for Western Europe), according data BMI Research. This is certainly attractive for investors.

The other side of the story is that we are still an emerging region. And, of course, this not only generates reserves, but also carries a higher level of risk. In this sense, we also have very different situations depending on which country in the region we are looking at. For example, Estonia is currently what investors call a "sweet spot", with very high returns and low risk. But it is the only country in the region in this category. There are countries - such as Lithuania, Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia - where the risks are equivalent to those of Greece or Italy, but the returns are relatively low. And others have the opposite problem: high returns but too much risk.

The experience of those players already present in this area -some of them Spanish, such as Ferrovial, Bankia or BBVA-, shows that although each country presents important peculiarities, some common risks can be mentioned. To mention them briefly: lack of political support; non-transparent regulatory regimes; very complex contracting processes -such as PPPs and concessions-; lack of projects with the necessary level of maturity to arouse the appetite of investors, and the lack of skill of the public sector in these countries to take advantage of private-sector funding schemes, among others.

In an increasingly competitive and global Economics , the prosperity and well-being of a united Europe will depend on how quickly it adapts to today's world. In this process, building a connected, safe, affordable and sustainable transport network that connects the EU from north to south is a core topic. Doing so will have a direct impact on increasing the competitiveness of all European countries and, consequently, on the economic growth of Europe as a whole.

Washington's Antilles energy diversification initiative moves forward

Given the success of Venezuela's oil diplomacy in the Caribbean countries (the islands account for 13 of the 35 votes in the OAS), the United States launched its own initiative in 2014 so that these small states have greater energy diversity and do not depend on Venezuelan crude. The Maduro regime's financial difficulties have reduced Chavista influence in the Caribbean, but Trump is also cutting back on U.S. aid. Diversification of energy sources, however, is moving forward because it is a real need for the islands.

▲ The tourism boom increases electricity consumption in the Caribbean islands, where there are hardly any energy sources of their own.

article / María F. Zambrano

In the Caribbean islands, energy security is at the center of national strategic concern, due to their high dependence on fossil fuels, mostly imported. Energy security is the focus where the geopolitical, diplomatic and economic interests of these small states converge, and not only of them: the great vulnerability due to the lack of their own energy sources was taken into account by Venezuela to promote the Petrocaribe cooperation agreement in 2005, which gave it great influence in the Antilles; since 2014, the United States has been trying to counteract that program with the Caribbean Energy Security Initiative (CESI), launched by the Obama Administration.

The rivalry between the two energy diplomacy initiatives will not really be settled by a political pulse between Caracas and Washington, but by the real need of the Caribbean islands to diversify their energy sources. This will reduce Venezuela's influence in the region and open the way for the U.S. offer, focused precisely on promoting alternative sources.

The main risk to national security in the Antilles lies in the high costs of Caribbean electricity. On the one hand, the islands have replaced historically agricultural economies with others driven by tourism, which forces them not only to meet the needs of their citizens but also to rely on the fixed cost of an industry with high levels of electricity consumption. On the other hand, production does not have diversified generation Structures . With the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname and Belize, the islands are supplied by oil as the only installed production capacity; in addition, 87% of primary energies (basically crude oil) are imported. We are facing a problem of high consumption and another of oil dependence.

In view of this status, and given the demands posed by energy security, understood as the physical protection of infrastructure and also the effort to guarantee the continuity of supply, Petrocaribe became a clear option for Antillean interests. Generous financing credits -from 5% to 70% for a 25-year period- contributed to the extension of the program. During the first 10 years of Petrocaribe's existence, agreement to data from the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System (SELA), Venezuela covered on average 32% of the energy demand of the participating States; the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Nicaragua and Haiti received 87% of the supplies. The agreement also involved investments in the islands' refineries, which increased their processing capacity: up to 135,000 barrels of crude oil per day between the Cuban Camilo Cienfuegos refinery (65,000), the refinery near Jamaica's capital (36,000) and the Dominican Petroleum refinery (34,000).

The alliance alleviated the rise in crude oil prices for these countries, but the region was left in the hands of the volatility of market prices and those of the main supplier. A November 2017 IMFreport estimates that real crude oil price movements affect GDP growth in the Caribbean by 7%, with wide variations by country: 15% in Dominica, 9% in Jamaica and less than 1% in Guyana. At the same time, the continued drop in Venezuela's production, which began to allocate fewer barrels to Petrocaribe, left the area predisposed to new approaches to reduce its exhibition to market shocks.

Caribbean Energy Security Initiative

This expectation was addressed in a new energy security framework that sought to increase independence and reduce vulnerability through diversification. Taking advantage of the steep drop in crude oil prices in 2014, which relaxed energy costs for the islands and gave them more room to maneuver, Washington launched the Caribbean Energy Security Initiative (CESI). The program has focused on supporting countries in diversifying electricity generation, addressing their significant renewable energy potential. Thus, through CESI, US$2 million in technical support has been allocated to C-SERMS (Caribbean Sustainable Energy Roadmap and Strategy), a roadmap developed by CARICOM's energy policy division. This roadmap had already harmonized the goals of the 15 member states with subject to energy efficiency and the implementation of renewable energies: two strategies that sought to solve the problems previously mentioned.

The Inter-American development Bank (IDB) estimated that for the implementation of the C-SERMS roadmap, the Caribbean energy sector would require an investment of 7% of the regional GDP between 2018 and 2023. Countries with stronger financial sectors would have the capacity to finance the projects without altering debt sustainability, with these projects being self-financed over a 20-year period.

In the framework of the U.S. initiative, energy efficiency was materialized in the CHEER program (Caribbean Hotel Energy Efficiency and Renewables program), which has provided technical attendance to the hotel industry, the main source consumption. However, in this field, the IMF urges the implementation of broader public policies to further reduce oil imports and increase GDP in the long term.

In the implementation of renewable energy, the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) has promoted infrastructure with public-private financing. Among other projects, it financed the construction of a 36 MW wind power plant and a 20 MW solar power plant, both inaugurated in 2016 in Jamaica. These projects also have macroeconomic influences on reducing dependence on crude oil; in the case of Jamaica, however, dependence has been decreased mainly by the expansion of natural gas receiving capacity, which has allowed that country a reduction from 97% to 80% dependence on imported oil (in fact, it no longer imports Venezuelan crude oil). Since 2016, the business New Fortress Energy has been working on the submission of liquefied natural gas to the Bogue plant in Jamaica.

Since its launch, OPIC has financed up to $120 million in energy agreements. To this must be added those promoted by the CEFF-CCA fund, also from the U.S. Government, which provided $20 million non-refundable for projects in initial phases; in 2015 the "Clean Energy in the Caribbean" project began, with a duration of five years and with special incidence in Jamaica.

Venezuela... and Trump's clippings

The U.S. initiative for energy diversification in the Caribbean had its response from Venezuela. In 2015, Petrocaribe held a special summit where it quadrupled the ALBA Caribe fund, raising it from $50 million to $200 million, destined to finance mainly social projects, along the lines of what Javier Corrales and Michael Penfold have called "social power diplomacy". However, Venezuela's severe economic crisis and the reduced finances of its national oil company, PDVSA, have forced the government of Nicolás Maduro to cut back on Venezuelan oil diplomacy.

For its part, the arrival of the Trump Administration has led to a significant decrease in the investment earmarked for CESI. In the framework of a generalized cutback in financial aid programs abroad, Washington reduced to $4.3 million the amount earmarked to promote new sources of energy in the Caribbean.

The United States, in any case, is not the only one trying to occupy the energy space previously filled by Venezuela. In 2015, the Renewable Energy and Efficient Energy Center was inaugurated in Barbados, promoted by UNID (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) with the support of Austrian and German funds. In addition, last year Russia made fuel shipments to Cuba, replacing supplies that Venezuela had not been able to cover.

Moscow continues militarization of the peninsula to prevent other forces from entering the region

Since the turn of the century, Russia had been losing economic, political and military influence in several Black Sea littoral countries; the seizure of Crimea attempted to correct the status. The Kremlin has just deployed a new missile group on the peninsula, in the framework of a long-term rearmament program that seeks to ensure that operationally the Black Sea is a Russian 'lake'.

▲Putin in Sevastopol during the 2014 celebration of the victory in World War II [Kremlin].

article / Vitaliy Stepanyuk

"The bear will not ask anyone's permission." This was the allegory used by Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in October 2014, to reflect that Russia will not seek anyone's permission when pursuing its national interests and those of its people.

These words were pronounced a few months after the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The process of change of government had been initiated and troops had been mobilized to the newly incorporated territory, making any subject Ukrainian intervention to regain their land impossible. Approximately four years later, the militarization of the peninsula continues its course by the Russian Federation.

Thus, the deployment of a new defense system in Crimea has just become known, an action justified by Moscow as a measure to protect the airspace over the Russian-Ukrainian border, and also to deal with continued threatening activity on the border, arising mainly from the presence of NATO.

Since the occupation of Crimea, the Kremlin has initiated a long-term rearmament program to achieve a zone (A2/AD) that would prevent other forces from accessing the region. This zone would limit the freedom of both air and ground maneuver for potential invaders. Together with other missile systems in Armenia, Krasnodar and elsewhere, this establishes a truly comprehensive anti-access zone. The establishment of advanced defense systems, the update of radars, the modernization of the Black Sea Fleet and the deployment of fighter aircraft are some of the initiatives undertaken to create such a blockade zone against any outside advance. In the coming years, six new attack submarines and six new surface ships are planned to be added to that Fleet, which could operate beyond the Black Sea, even supporting military operations in Syria.

Moving away from the old satellites

The increase in NATO troops and their presence in countries bordering Russia is seen by Russia as a threat to its security. Countries such as Poland, where NATO mobilized in January 2017 about 3.500 soldiers, and others such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary see the deployment necessary in view of the status occurred in Ukraine and Russian military exercises near their borders: a clear example is Zapad 2017, a set of strategic and military exercises carried out jointly by Russian and Belarusian troops, in Belarus, in the Kaliningrad Oblast and along the entire northern strip bordering NATO countries.

Looking back over the recent history of the last 20 years, we can see how Russia has been losing economic, political and military influence over the territories bordering the Black Sea since the beginning of the century. Thus, in Georgia (2004) and Ukraine (2005), more pro-Russian presidents were replaced by more pro-Western ones. In addition, Bulgaria and Romania had become members of NATO, while Georgia and Ukraine were working on it.

Operations in the Black Sea area

Threatened by this status, Russia decided to do everything possible to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from becoming NATO members, while at the same time developing strategies to remove the remaining states from NATO's influence.

With the invasion of Georgia in 2008, the Kremlin showed its determination to contain NATO, maintaining to this day a military B in various regions of that country. The same happened in Ukraine after the flight of former President Viktor Yanukovych, when Russia invaded Crimea in March 2014. In this way, it secured control over the naval base of its Black Sea Fleet located in Sevastopol (Crimea). It also militarily supports pro-Russian separatists in the war in Eastern Ukraine, destabilizing the country.

In other countries bordering the Black Sea, Russia has acted differently. In the case of Bulgaria and Romania, the only countries bordering the Black Sea that are members of the European Union, Russian influence prevails in supporting pro-Russian political parties and establishing strong business ties subject However, Romania is another of the regions that constitute a challenge to Russian foreign policy, due to its impetus in defending NATO's presence in the Black Sea.

In the case of Turkey, which unlike several of the countries mentioned above was not part of the USSR or the Soviet bloc, the Kremlin has supported the authoritarianism carried out by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seeking mainly two basic objectives: to disassociate Turkey from NATO, to which it has belonged almost since its inception (1952), and to ensure its friendship with the country that exercises control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, which allow access to the Mediterranean Sea. If Turkey were to close the straits, the Russian fleet would be isolated and unable to exert its influence beyond the Black Sea. This could happen if Turkey and Russia were to find themselves at odds with each other in a conflict. In such a case, as the second strongest military power in the region, Turkey could be a clear threat to isolated Russian troops. On the other hand, the relationship with Turkey presents numerous challenges for Moscow: one example is the disagreement over the Syrian conflict, where Turkey opposes the Assad regime, while Russia supports it. 

Importance of the Black Sea

In the final, Russia seeks to consolidate its influence and dominance over the Black Sea. This is mainly due to some essential characteristics: firstly, this sea is an important strategic point, as it would allow access to the various adjoining territories; secondly, control over ports and trade routes would give the power to obstruct trade and energy supplies (it is a territory crossed by a multitude of energy transport pipelines); finally, Russia could greatly influence regions that share a common history with Russia, infringing on its relationship with NATO.

Immediate challenge

In conclusion, it is interesting to understand that the main challenge facing Russia is to maintain the status quo, according to Yuval Weber, a professor at Harvard University. To do so, Russia has to be able to maintain the separatist group in the Ukrainian war, until the Kiev government falls and can then engage in talks with a possible puppet government that accepts a solution on Russian terms. However, maintaining such a state of affairs implies having to deal simultaneously with international intervention and Russia's own weak internal economic status , where there is growing social dissatisfaction regarding wages, cutbacks in services, poverty in some regions, among other problems.

Both Russia's internal and external status , as well as that of its territories of influence, are contingent on the results of the upcoming Russian presidential elections, which will be held on March 18, 2018. The World Cup is not the only thing at stake.

High levels of corruption and impunity in the region make it difficult to eradicate millionaire bribes in public procurement contracts

The confession of the construction and engineering company Odebrecht, one of the most important in Brazil, of having delivered large sums as bribes to political leaders, parties and public officials for the awarding of works in several countries in the region has been the biggest corruption scandal in the history of Latin America. The budget B during the "golden decade" of raw materials occurred in a framework of little improvement in the effectiveness of the rule of law and control of corruption, which led to high levels of illicit deviations in public contracts.

article / Ximena Barría [English version].

Odebrecht is a Brazilian company that conducts business in multiple industries through several operating sites. It is engaged in areas such as engineering, construction, infrastructure and energy, among others. Its headquarters in Brazil are located in the city of Salvador de Bahia. The business operates in 27 countries in Latin America, Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Over the years, the construction company has participated in public works contracts in most Latin American countries.

In 2016, the U.S. department Justice published an research alleging that the Brazilian company had bribed public officials in twelve countries, ten of them Latin American: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Dominican Republic and Venezuela. The research was developed from the confession made by Odebrecht's top executives themselves once they were discovered.

The company provided officials in these countries with millions of dollars in exchange for obtaining public works contracts and benefiting from the payment for their execution. The business agreed to submit millions of dollars to political parties, public officials, public candidates or persons related to the government. Its purpose was to have a competitive advantage that would allow it to retain public business in different countries. 

In order to cover up these illicit capital movements, the business created fictitious corporations in places such as Belize, the Virgin Islands and Brazil. The business set up a secret financial structure to cover up these payments. The research by the U.S. department Justice established that the bribes in the aforementioned countries totaled US$788 million (almost half in Brazil alone). Using this illegal method, contrary to all business and political ethics, Odebrecht obtained the commission of more than one hundred projects, which generated profits of US$ 3,336 million.

Lack of an effective judiciary

This matter, known as the Odebrecht case, has created consternation in Latin American societies. Its citizens consider that in order for acts of this subject not to go unpunished, countries must have greater efficiency in the judicial sphere and take more accelerated steps towards a true rule of law. 

agreement World Bank indicators, none of the ten Latin American countries affected by this bribery network reaches 60% of effectiveness of the rule of law and corruption control. This would explain the success of the Brazilian construction company in its bribery policy.

Judicial independence and its effectiveness is essential for the resolution of facts of these characteristics. The proper exercise of justice shapes a proper rule of law, preventing the occurrence of illicit acts or other political decisions that may violate it. Although this is the ideal, the countries involved in the Odebrecht case do not fully comply with this due judicial independence.

Indeed, according to the Global Competitiveness Report for 2017-2018, most of the affected countries obtain a leave grade with respect to the independence of their courts, which indicates that they lack an effective judiciary to judge those allegedly involved in this case. This is the case, for example, with Panama and the Dominican Republic, ranked 120th and 127th, respectively, in terms of judicial independence, out of a list of 137 countries.

One of the problems that the Judicial Branch of the Republic of Panama suffers from is the high issue of cases handled by the Supreme Court of Justice. This congestion makes it difficult for the Supreme Court to work effectively. The high number of processed files doubled between 2013 and 2016: the Criminalconference room of the Court processed 329 files in 2013; in 2016 there were 857. Although the Panamanian Judiciary has improved its budget, this has not represented a qualitative increase in its functions. These difficulties could explain the Court's decision to reject an extension of the research, although this could mean a certain impunity. In 2016, only two people were arrested in the Odebrecht case. In 2017, of the 43 defendants who could have been involved in the acceptance of bribes valued at US$60 million, only 32 were prosecuted.

The Dominican Republic is also in a similar status . According to a survey of 2016, only 38% of Dominicans trust the judicial institution. This low percentage may have been contributed to by the fact that active members of political parties were elected to serve as Supreme Court judges, something that tarnishes the credibility of the judiciary and its independence. In 2016, the Dominican courts only inquired about one person, when the US Supreme Court estimated that the Brazilian business had given US$92 million in political bribes, one of the highest amounts outside Brazil. In 2017, the Supreme Court of the Dominican Republic ordered the release from prison of 9 of 10 allegedly implicated in the case due to insufficient evidence.

Need for greater coordination and reform

In October 2017, public prosecutors from Latin America met in Panama City to share information on money laundering, especially in relation to the Odebrecht case. Officials expressed the need to leave no case unpunished, thereby contributing to solving one of the biggest political, economic and judicial problems in the region. Some prosecutors reported having suffered threats in their investigations. All of them valued the meeting positively, as it highlighted the need for greater fiscal coordination and legislative harmony in Latin America. However, it is important to note that the Dominican Republic was absent from the meeting.

Any awareness of Latin American public ministries is essential given the correlation observed between the countries affected by Odebrecht's bribes and their poor ranking in indexes provided by different international organizations and research centers. The ineffective rule of law and the lack of control of corruption allow companies like Odebrecht to succeed in their bribery policy to gain a competitive advantage. 

The shortcomings of the judicial systems in countries such as Panama and the Dominican Republic, in particular, may make it possible for public officials to go unpunished for crimes committed. In addition, the Odebrecht case, of great magnitude in the region, could further congest judicial activity if effective reforms are not made in each country. 

The constant expansion of the crop in Mercosur countries has led them to exceed 50% of world production.

Soybean is the agricultural product with the highest commercial growth in the world. The needs of China and India, major consumers of the fruit of this oleaginous plant and its derivatives, make South America a strategic granary. Its profitability has encouraged the extension of the crop, especially in Brazil and Argentina, but also in Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay. Its expansion is behind recent deforestation in the Amazon and the Gran Chaco. After hydrocarbons and minerals, soybeans are South America's other major subject .

article / Daniel Andrés Llonch [English version].

Soybean has been cultivated in Asian civilizations for thousands of years; today its cultivation is also widespread in other parts of the world. It has become the most important oilseed grain for human consumption and animal feed. With great nutritional properties due to its high protein content, soybean is marketed both as a grain and in its oil and meal derivatives.

Of the eleven largest soybean producers, five are in South America: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay. In 2016, these countries were the origin of 50.6% of world production, which totaled 334.8 million tons, according to FAO data . The leading producer was the United States (34.9% of world production), followed by Brazil (28.7%) and Argentina (17.5%). India and China follow on the list, although what is significant about the latter country is its large consumption, which in 2016 forced it to import 83.2 million tons. A large part of these import needs are covered from South America. South American production is centered in the Mercosur nations (in addition to Brazil and Argentina, also Paraguay and Uruguay) and Bolivia.

Strong international demand and the high relative profitability of soybeans in recent years have fueled the expansion of soybean cultivation in the Mercosur region. The commodity price boom, in which soybeans also participated, led to profits that were directed to the acquisition of new land and equipment, allowing producers to increase their scale and efficiency.

In Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, the area planted with soybean is the majority (it constitutes more than 50% of the total area planted with the five most important crops in each country). If to the group we add Uruguay, where soybean has enjoyed a later expansion, we have that the production of these five South American countries has gone from 99 million tons in 2006 to 169.7 million in 2016, which constitutes an increase of 71.2% (Brazil and Bolivia have almost doubled their production, somewhat surpassed by Paraguay and Uruguay, a country where it has tripled). In the decade, this area of South America has gone from contributing 44.7% of world production to account for 50.6%. In that time, the cultivated area increased from 40.6 million hectares to 58.4 million hectares.

Countries

As the second largest soybean producer in the world, Brazil reached in 2016 a production of 96.2 million tons (28.7% of the world total), with a cultivated area of 33.1 million hectares. Its production has known a constant increase, so that in the last decade the Issue of the crop has increased by 83.5%. The leap has been especially significant B the last four years, in which Brazil and Argentina have experienced the highest rate of increase in the crop, with an annual average of 936,000 and 878,000 hectares, respectively, agreement to the United States department Agriculture (USDA).

Argentina is the second largest producer in Mercosur, with 58.7 million tons (17.5% of world production) and a cultivated area of 19.5 million hectares. Soybean began to be planted in Argentina in the mid 1970s, and in less than 40 years it has made unprecedented progress. This crop occupies 63% of the areas of the country planted with the five most important crops, compared to 28% of the area occupied by corn and wheat.

Paraguay, meanwhile, had a 2016 harvest of 9.1 million tons of soybeans (2.7% of world production). In recent seasons, soybean production has increased as more land has been allocated to soybean cultivation. agreement to the USDA, over the past two decades, land devoted to soybean cultivation has increased steadily by 6% per year. There are currently 3.3 million hectares of land dedicated to soybean cultivation in Paraguay, which constitutes 66% of the land used for the main crops.

In Bolivia, soybeans are grown mainly in the Santa Cruz region. According to the USDA, it accounts for 3% of the country's Gross Domestic Product, and employs 45,000 workers directly. In 2016, the country harvested 3.2 million tons (0.9% of world production), on an area of 1.3 million hectares.

Soybean plantations occupy more than 60 percent of the arable land in Uruguay, where soybean production has been increasing in recent years. In fact, it is the country where production has grown the most in relative terms in the last decade (67.7%), reaching 2.2 million tons in 2016 and a cultivated extension of 1.1 million hectares.

Increased demand

Soybean production represents a very important fraction of the agricultural GDP of South American nations. The five countries mentioned above, together with the United States, account for 85.6% of global production, making them the main suppliers of the growing world demand.

This production has experienced a progressive increase since its insertion in the market, with the exception of Uruguay, whose expansion of the product has been more recent. In the period between 1980 and 2005, for example, total world soybean demand expanded by 174.3 million tons, or 2.8 times. During this period, the growth rate of global demand accelerated from 3% per year in the 1980s to 5.6% per year in the last decade.

In all the South American countries mentioned above, soybean cultivation has been especially encouraged, due to the benefits it brings. Thus, in Brazil, the largest regional producer of the oleaginous grain, soybeans contribute revenues estimated at 10 billion dollars in exports, representing 14% of the total products marketed by the country. In Argentina, soybean cultivation went from representing 10.6% of agricultural production in 1980/81 to more than 50% in 2012/2013, generating significant economic benefits.

The outlook for growth in demand suggests that production will continue to rise. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that global production will exceed 500 million tons in 2050, which is double the Issue harvested in 2010. Much of this demand will have to be met from South America.