[Michael E. O'Hanlon and James Steinberg, A Glass Half Full: Rebalance, Reassurance, and Resolve in the US-China Strategic Relationship. The Brookings Institution Press, Washington D.C., 2017, 104 pages]
REVIEW / María Granados
This short book follows a longer book published in 2014 by the same authors, Strategic Reassurance and Resolve. In the new publication, Michael E. O'Hanlon and James Steinberg -both academics and senior policy makers- update and review the policies they suggest in order to improve the relations between China and the United States. The relationship between both countries, established in the early 1970s, has been subject to changing times, and it has suffered several crises, but it has nonetheless grown in importance in the international sphere.
The short and straight-forward strategic review of the ongoing action provides an insight into the arsenals and plans of the two powers. Moreover, through graphs and numerical tables, it depicts the current situation in terms of strength, potential threat, and the likelihood of destruction if a conflict were to arise.
It also gives an overview of the diverse security matters that need to be monitored carefully, in the realms of space, cybernetics, and nuclear proliferation. These essential matters need not to be disregarded when planning defense strategies; instead officials should cast an eye over historical tensions such as Taiwan, North Korea and the South China Sea, and remember to use the tools that have already been established in the region to prevent the use of hard power, i.e.: ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations).
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Not only does the paper carefully consider the action taken by President Obama and his predecessors, but also cautiously suggests steps ahead in the path opened by Nixon four decades ago. O'Hanlon and Steinberg use bulletpoints to give directions for further developments in the Sino-American relationship, stressing the need for transparency, mutually beneficial exchanges, cooperation, and common ends in common projects.
Some of the ideas are summarised briefly in the following paragraphs:
-True rebalance moves away from mere 'containment' and into a trustworthy alliance. Joint operations that ensure cooperation and reassurance are a key aspect of that objective.
-Confidence building in the area of communications must be reinforced in order to prevent espionage and the spread of piracy, as well as other illegal tactics to gather private information.
-The neutral trend in the broad topic of space, cybernetics and nuclearisation has to advance into a firm and close cooperation, especially in view of the threat that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea poses to the global community as a whole. Intelligence and the recent accusations of Russia's manipulation through the use of the Internet and other technological means can be a target to pursue further negotiations and the signing of international treaties such as The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.
-To abstain from any risks of escalation, the following policies must be regarded: the leveling of military budget growth, and of the development and deployment of prompt- attack capabilities, restraining modernisation, in favor of dialogue and the exchange of information, providing notice of any operation.
The authors conclude that the relationship is not free from conflict or misunderstanding; it is indeed a work in progress. However, they are positive about that progress. The overall outlook of the Sino-American relation is, as the title suggests "A Glass Half Full": there is of course work to be done, and the path has plenty of potential problems that both countries will have to face and resolve in the least damaging way to advance on the common interest; in spite of the aforementioned, half of it has already been done: both China and the US have a goal to fight for: the prevention of war, which would be short and detrimental for all international actors alike.
Bulgaria's semester focuses on refugee crisis and Western Balkans
Bulgaria's presidency of the European Union, in addition to advancing in the concretization of the 'Brexit', puts on the table particularly sensitive issues for Central and Eastern Europe, such as the migratory routes that enter Europe through the southeast of the continent and the advisability of the future integration of the states born of the former Yugoslavia, of which so far only Croatia has joined the EU.
▲European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov [Nikolay Doychinov-Bulgarian Presidency].
article / Paula Ulibarrena García
During this first semester of 2018, for the first time, Bulgaria holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) committee . The Bulgarian presidency has as its main challenges the management of the migration crisis and the Brexit negotiations. A special goal is to focus on the Western Balkans. During the semester, Bulgaria hopes to take the final steps towards the euro and to join the Schengen area.
Under the slogan "Unity is strength", Bulgaria - the poorest country in the EU - has set itself an ambitious diary until June. The Bulgarian government, formed by the conservative populist GERB party and the ultra-nationalist Patriotic Front, has set out to help make the European bloc stronger, more stable and more united.
To this end, Sofia wants to foster consensus, cohesion and competitiveness, with the specific challenge of overcoming existing differences in the handling of the refugee crisis. Given the rejection by several partners of quotas for the relocation of asylum seekers, Bulgaria will seek "a sustainable system for managing immigration," with "common rules that are enforced," the Bulgarian presidency program highlights.
Migration crisis
Dialogue with third countries to facilitate the return of migrants without the right to asylum and the strengthening of external border control are some of the measures planned by the executive led by the Bulgarian Prime Minister, the conservative populist Boiko Borisov.
Bulgaria's position on the Syrian refugee crisis is that the adoption of a mechanism for relocating refugees is only a provisional solution. The government in Sofia believes that a lasting and solid solution must be found under which to limit the pressure on the EU's external borders and the secondary migration resulting from it. It proposes that the EU should work as a matter of priority and urgency together with its EU partners with a view to stabilizing the countries of origin and helping the transit countries. Bulgaria, which has Turkey as a neighbor, considers Turkey to be a core topic for the resolution of the problem and suggests that the EU should take urgent measures to strengthen Turkey's capacity to receive refugees. Bulgaria has always been keen that the agreements should provide for Turkey to take in refugees that the EU can refund from Greece.
For Sofia, it is necessary to clarify the distinction between economic migrants and refugees and to move towards "solidarity mechanisms" that are acceptable to all member states, recalling in this regard the failure of the mandatory quota system for the relocation of refugees in Italy and Greece.
Western Balkans
Another priority of the Bulgarian presidency is to place the countries of the Western Balkans in the sights of an EU that for the time being is not considering any further enlargement. Some countries in the region, such as Serbia and Montenegro, are actively negotiating their entrance, which they hope will take place within the next five years. Meanwhile, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Macedonia and Kosovo are still waiting to formally start negotiations.
Among the nearly 300 meetings planned during the Bulgarian EU presidency, a special summit on May 17-18 between EU leaders and these six aspirants stands out.
"The European project will not be complete without the integration of the Balkans," warned the Bulgarian Presidency's manager minister, Lilyana Pavlova. Bulgaria insists on the desirability of helping a European region still marked by the political instability of the new small states that emerged after the Yugoslav war.
After Croatia's integration into the European Union on July 1, 2013, it is logical that other countries of the former Yugoslavia intend to follow. Montenegro (which even has a bilateral agreement with Bulgaria for technical-political attendance on the topic) and Albania are already official candidates, and Serbia and Macedonia will probably soon be invited.
Economics, stability of institutions and democratic transparency have always been and will always be decisive factors in the integration process. For this reason, today, the question of the development of the Balkans and the region of Southeast Europe is very present in the European diary , since the big donors of the European budgets do not forget the problems caused by the integration of countries such as Poland, Hungary, Romania or Bulgaria itself. In fact, four countries in the area are subject to the economic policy of the Union: Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is still under European protectorate, and Kosovo, without official recognition by several governments, including two members of the Security committee (China and Russia) and five EU members (Spain, Greece, Slovakia, Cyprus and Romania), are excluded from this possible integration for the time being. In addition, the level of unemployment in the Western Balkans is quite high compared to Bulgaria and Romania, with the combined average for the four candidates being around 25%.
On the other hand, with the disintegration of the Soviet bloc and the war in the Balkans, the socioeconomic systems collapsed and the transition period resulted not only in growing inequalities, but also in the absence of legality and effective government. The consequence of all this has been in many countries of the area the important role played by black money in Economics. Bulgaria leads this sad record, with an informal sector accounting for 31% of the Economics, closely followed by Romania and Croatia, whose underground Economics accounts for 28%, and Greece, with 24%. The problem lies in the question of the extent to which underground Economics and illegal trafficking channels in southeastern Europe can pose a danger to the security of the other countries of the Union. For this reason, the efforts of the candidate countries to improve democratic Structures , governance, transparency and control of capital flows will be an important factor to be taken into account in the negotiations.
Brexit, Schengen and corruption
The decisive phase of negotiations on the UK's exit from the EU is expected to begin under the Bulgarian presidency, following the progress noted in early December by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Sofia wants to become acoordinator neutralcoordinator " in this process, according to Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.
The progress in the digital Economics of the continent after the impulse given to this topic by the outgoing Estonian presidency, as well as in the banking union, are other core topic of the Bulgarian diary . The Balkan country will also defend the cohesion policy and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which will be affected by the loss of funds due to the Brexit.
At the same time, Bulgaria aspires to enter during its EU presidency in the "anteroom" of the euro zone and join the Schengen area, of free community circulation, a step blocked until now due to the lack of progress made by Bulgaria in the fight against corruption and organized crime. The Balkan country, considered the most corrupt in the EU, took eleven years to approve its first anti-corruption law, adopted last December 20, less than two weeks before assuming its EU presidency. Unlike what happened in neighboring Romania, so far Bulgarian justice has not investigated or convicted any politician for corruption cases.
Air connectivity
The International Air Transport association (IATA) called for a renewed policy approach to strengthen Europe's aviation competitiveness at the Bulgarian presidency of the EU. There is an urgent need to strategically plan for the capacity needed to meet the growing demand for global connectivity, environmental improvements and regulation of infrastructure costs.
IATA forecasts a 6 percent expansion of air travel demand in Europe in 2018. "Operating an airline in Europe is challenging. There are high costs and regulatory burdens. Infrastructure capacity is often not sufficient and charges for using airports have doubled across Europe in the last decade. The Bulgarian government has put competitiveness and connectivity at the center of its EU Presidency diary . This will drive greater competitiveness and prosperity for European economies, but only if individual EU member states follow through by adopting policies that promote air connectivity," said Rafael Schvartzman, regional vice president of IATA Europe, at the IATA Bulgaria Aviation Day in Sofia.
Bulgaria occupies a strategically important position as Europe's entrance to Turkey and beyond to Asia. It is also a fast-growing market in its own right, with passenger issue set to double in the next 20 years. This is a challenge for the country's air traffic management , and the Bulgarian air navigation services provider BULATSA.
A country with many conditions to have a great weight in Europe, but weighed down by the Russian neighborhood
If the border between the West and the area of Russian domination divided Germany during the Cold War, today that border passes through Ukraine. The open conflict with Russia hampers the objective conditions of great development that Ukraine has. The country is paying a high price for the desire to preserve its independence.
▲Pro-European demonstration in Kiev's central square at the end of 2013 [Evgeny Feldman].
ARTICLE / Alona Sainetska [English version].
Ukraine is a sovereign and independent state (since 1991) located in Eastern Europe, with the second largest area (after Russia) of European countries (576,550 km² without the Crimean Peninsula) and with a long history of struggle for preserve its identity. Ukraine is today the center of tensions between Russia and the West. In 2014 Moscow decided to compensate for the fall of the pro-Russian government of Kiev with the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. It was then that Ukraine aroused worldwide interest. The Ukrainians finally achieved a leading role according to the size of their country, although they undoubtedly would rather want to do so with other types of headlines.
1. WHAT DRIVES IT FORWARD
Considering its geographical position and its strategic, economic and military weight, it is difficult to justify that before the outbreak of the conflict, for many people Ukraine was not a common place on the map. The country is surrounded by Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, and has a direct access to the Black Sea. This central location makes very clear the fact that Ukraine should play an important role in the context of international relations.
Agriculture
The rich and fertile soil of Ukraine is known as black land or "Chornozem". The agricultural area used 70% of the farmland, around 42 million hectares, and is capable of feeding more than 500 million people. Consequently, the country, with its 46 million inhabitants, has considerable potential for the production, processing, consumption and export of agricultural and organic products. It is already one of the leading countries in the agricultural sector and can even become a "green vein" in the heart of Europe.
It is the leading producer and exporter of sunflower oil, 30% of exports go to India and 16% to China. It also produces large quantities of wheat, of which the sixth world exporter. It produces wheat flour and corn to manufacture food, which is then exported to France, Poland and Belarus, among others. It is among a number of leaders in the production of poultry, where it grew more than 55% between 2000 and 2011; its exports go mainly to Iraq and the EU and to another seventy countries.
Industry and logistics infrastructure
Ukraine also has an aeronautical industry, although lack of investment hinders its large-scale development. However, examples like Antonov's Mriya-225, the world's largest position plane, built during the Soviet era and capable of transporting up to 250 tons, speak of its huge potential which is waiting forward for some investments.
On the other hand, it is worth mentioning that Ukraine is ideal for an international trade center, mainly between the European Union, the Middle East and Asia. Five out of ten European transport corridors cross the Ukrainian territory; Ukraine has the most extensive railway networks in Europe that handle a substantial part of the traffic of passengers and merchandise; In addition, its road network covers the entire territory of the country and enables deliveries to any point of destination. Last but not least, there is the natural gas transmission system, led by the company Ukrtransgas, dedicated to the transmission and storage of natural gas in Ukraine. In 2013, it transported 132,000 million cubic meters (bcm), including 86 bcm for the EU and Moldova. Ukrtransgas has the largest underground gas storage network in Europe, with a total capacity of 31 bcm and consists of 14 subsidiary units operating in Ukraine.
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2. WHAT PREVENTS IT FROM DEVELOPMENT
However, the country is still underestimated by other actors on the international board and that exposes it to Russian ambitions. These are manifested in numerous obstacles to make it difficult for Ukraine to gain weight in the aforementioned sectors of commerce, industry, agriculture and transport. Likewise, there are other derived factors that hinder the development of the country.
Interest of Russia
Russia's interest in its neighbor to the west is mainly due to strategic reasons, since Ukraine is the key for expanding Russian imperial power. Therefore, Russia seeks to strengthen its influence in Ukraine through economic expansion, control over the maritime border, the installation of military instructions and occupation troops in the territory, the expansion of interference in the Ukrainian information space, the influence of the Russian church, etc. Another measure attributed to Moscow is to place young people in positions of power in Ukraine: the Kremlin wanted to take advantage of the presidency of V. Yanukovich, a pro-Russian politician.
Internal instability
Today the future of Ukraine is as uncertain as ever. Economic and political reforms have not been able to overcome the serious structural problems of the country, the fight against corruption is scarce and the insignificant international support further reduces the already low expectation that Ukraine can overcome the crisis in a short term. Given the absence of means that are not sanctions to put pressure on Russia and given that those that have been implemented have barely changed the attitude of the Kremlin, it is safe to say that the normalization of the situation is far on the horizon.
All this is reflected in the growing popular discontent. 90% of Ukrainians disapprove of the management of the current government, express the desire for new elections and show their rejection that the regions closest to Russia participate in the political life of the country. This discontent makes that the only institutions the Ukrainian people trust in are the army, the church and the volunteers.
The "frozen" conflict
On the other hand, the "frozen conflict" in the East of the country still remains and continues to undermine the state budget. Defence and security expenditures accounted for 5% of GDP last year, a high figure that includes the government's efforts to create a new army. According to President Petro Poroshenko, this was one of the multiple reasons for the failure to increase the standard of living of citizens. In general, the prospects of a victory for Ukraine in a war to regain full sovereignty over its eastern lands seem very low, given Russia's support for the rebels and Ukraine's fear of an internal counter-reaction. Thus a vicious circle is generated, so that until there is a successful end of the war, economic and political tension on the Kiev government will increase and could even lead to a new Maidan, the popular revolt that collapsed the government in 2014.
The geopolitical clash between Russia and the West in Ukraine has been detrimental to all parties involved, but above all to the Ukrainian State. The decline in cross-border trade, the weakening of currencies and stock markets, and the increase in security risks all have affected the entire region. Poverty is growing at the same rate that the standards of living of citizens decrease and prices in the markets increase. As a result, Ukrainians cannot take advantage of the opportunities granted to them, as is the clear example of the visa waiver between Ukraine and the European Union (approved in May 2017), which many have not been able to use because of lack of means.
3. THE NECESSARY BALANCE
The geopolitical priority of Ukraine is to obtain the independence of Russia, something that means breaking the economic bonds with the country. It is an unbalanced battle with a high cost for the Ukrainians, who face the destruction of their own economy, the defeat of the elites and the impoverishment of the population.
This development strategy of the Ukrainian state is increasingly based on the concepts of radical nationalism. But the memory of the historical background, such as the Holodomor (the great famine of the 1930s), warns about the enormous power of the Russian "hegemon" and suggests the need to serve the national interest through a kind of balance between final objectives and the medium term diplomacy.
A country with many conditions to have a great weight in Europe, but weighed down by Russia's proximity to it
If the border between the West and the area of Russian domination divided Germany during the Cold War, today that border runs through Ukraine. The open conflict with Russia hampers the objective conditions for Ukraine's great development . The country is paying a high price for the desire to preserve its independence.
▲Pro-European protesters in the central place in Kiev, during the riots in late 2013 [Evgeny Feldman].
article / Alona Sainetska [English version].
Ukraine, a sovereign and independent state (since 1991), located in Eastern Europe, with the second largest area (after Russia) of the European countries (576,550 km² without the Crimean peninsula) and with a long history of struggle to preserve its identity, is today the center of tensions between Russia and the West. In 2014 Moscow wanted to compensate for the fall of the pro-Russian government in Kiev by annexing the Crimean peninsula. It was then that Ukraine aroused global interest. The Ukrainians finally achieved a prominence commensurate with the size of their country, although they would undoubtedly have wanted to do so with a different headline subject .
1. WHAT DRIVES FORWARD
Considering its geographical position and its strategic, economic and military weight, it is difficult to justify that before the outbreak of the conflict Ukraine was not for many more a fuzzy place on the map. The country is surrounded by Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, and has direct access to the Black Sea. This central location makes it very clear that Ukraine should play an important role in the context of international relations.
Agriculture
Ukraine's rich and fertile soil is known as black soil or "Chornozem". The agricultural area used covers 70% of the arable land, or about 42 million hectares, and is capable of feeding 500 million people. The country, with its 46 million inhabitants, therefore has considerable potential for production, processing, consumption and export of agricultural and organic products. It is already one of the leading countries in the agricultural sector and can be considered a "green vein" in the heart of Europe.
It is the leading producer and exporter of sunflower oil, 30% of whose exports go to India and 16% to China. Ukraine also produces large quantities of wheat, of which it is the world's sixth largest exporter. It produces wheat and corn flour for food production, which it exports to France, Poland and Belarus, among others. It is also one of the leaders in poultry production, the issue of which grew by more than 55 % between 2000 and 2011; its exports go mainly to Iraq and the EU and to seventy other countries.
Industry and logistics infrastructure
Ukraine also has an aircraft industry, although lack of investment is holding back its large-scale development . However, examples such as Antonov's Mriya-225, the world's largest cargo aircraft built during the Soviet era and capable of carrying up to 250 tons, speak of its potential while awaiting investment.
On the other hand, it is worth mentioning that Ukraine is ideally suited to be a hub for international trade, mainly between the European Union, the Middle East and Asia. Five out of ten European transport corridors cross the Ukrainian territory; Ukraine has the most extensive railway networks in Europe that handle a substantial part of passenger and freight traffic; moreover, its road network covers the entire territory of the country and enables deliveries to any point of destination. Last but not least, there is the natural gas transmission system, led by the Ukrtransgasbusiness , dedicated to the transmission and storage of natural gas in Ukraine. In 2013 it transported 132 billion cubic meters (bcm), including 86 bcm for the EU and Moldova. Ukrtransgas owns Europe's largest subway gas storage network with a total capacity of 31 bcm and consists of 14 subsidiary units operating in Ukraine.
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2. WHAT HOLDS BACK DEVELOPMENT
However, the country continues to be underestimated by other players on the international chessboard and this exposes it to Russian ambitions. These are manifested in numerous obstacles that make it difficult for Ukraine to gain weight in the aforementioned sectors of trade, industry, agriculture and transport. There are also other factors that hinder the country's development .
Interest from Russia
Russia's interest in its neighbor to the west is mainly due to strategic reasons, since Ukraine is a fundamental piece for any expansion of the former Russian imperial power. Therefore, Russia seeks to strengthen its influence in Ukraine through economic expansion, control over the maritime border, installation of Russian military instructions and Russian occupation troops in the territory, expansion of interference in Ukraine's information space, influence of the Russian church, etc. Another of the measures attributed to Moscow is the placement of people close to it in positions of power in Ukraine: the Kremlin wanted to take advantage of the presidency of V. Yanukovych, a pro-Russian politician.
Internal instability
Today the future of Ukraine is as uncertain as ever. Economic and political reforms have failed to overcome the country's serious structural problems, the fight against corruption is weak, and the insignificant international support further diminishes the already leave expectation that Ukraine can overcome the crisis in a short time. Given the absence of other means to put pressure on Russia than sanctions, and in view of the fact that those that have been applied have hardly changed the Kremlin's attitude, it is safe to say that normalization of the status is far away on the horizon.
All this is reflected in the growing popular discontent. 90% of Ukrainians disapprove of the current government's management , express the desire for new elections and show their refusal to allow the regions closest to Russia to participate in the country's political life. Desperation means that the only institutions the Ukrainian people trust are the army, the church and volunteers.
The "frozen" conflict
On the other hand, the "frozen conflict" in the east of the country continues to undermine the state budget . Defense and security spending accounted for 5% of GDP last year, a high figure that includes the government's efforts to create a new army. According to President Petro Poroshenko, this was one of the many reasons for the failure to raise citizens' living standards. Overall, the prospects for a Ukrainian victory in a war to regain full sovereignty over its eastern lands appear dim, given Russia's support for the rebels and Ukraine's fear of an internal counter-reaction. A vicious circle is thus generated, so that as long as there is no successful end to the war, economic and political tension on the Kiev government will increase and could lead to a new Maidan, the popular revolt that collapsed the government in 2014.
The geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West in Ukraine has been detrimental to all parties involved, but especially to the Ukrainian state. Declining cross-border trade, weakening currencies and stock markets, and increased security risks have affected the entire region. Poverty is growing at the same pace as the standard of living of citizens is declining and market prices are rising. As a result, Ukrainians are unable to take advantage of the opportunities granted to them, as is the clear example of the visa exemption between Ukraine and the European Union (approved in May 2017), which many have not been able to use as they have been unable to finance their travel.
3. THE NECESSARY BALANCE
Ukraine's geopolitical priority is to gain independence from Russia, which means breaking economic ties with it. This is an unbalanced and costly battle for the Ukrainians, who face the destruction of their own Economics, the defeat of the elites and the impoverishment of the population.
This strategy of Ukrainian state development is increasingly based on the concepts of radical nationalism. But the report historical antecedents, such as the Holodomor (the great famine of the 1930s), warns of the enormous power of the Russian "hegemon" and suggests the need to serve the national interest through a sort of balance between ultimate goals and medium-term diplomacy.
▲Transfer of immigrants arrived from North Africa to the Italian island of Lampedusa [Vito Manzani].
ANALYSIS / Valeria Nadal [English version] [Spanish version].
At the end of 2017 the Cable News Network (CNN) broadcast a video recorded anonymously with a hidden camera, showing the sale of four men in Libya, for 400 dollars each, to Libyan citizens to work or in exchange for a rescue, in the case of men, or as sex slaves, in the case of women. The scandalous images triggered a global response, with several Hollywood celebrities joining protests calling for the end of slave trade in Libya. France, Germany, Chad, Nigeria and other countries have long urged Libya to tackle this serious problem, through a program of repatriation of immigrants and the evacuation of detention camps, where many of the slave trade mafias operate. The circumstances, however, do not seem to have improved since the video was released due to the persistence of a lack of state coordination to tackle the problem alongside with other factors. How is it possible that slave trade has happened within Libya?
Libya is large country located in North Africa, with a long Mediterranean coastline. Until 2011, the year in which the Arab Spring broke out, Libya was one of the most stable countries in the region. It had one of the highest life expectancies in all of Africa, and an educational system - from primary to university studies - better than most of its neighboring countries. However, this situation of stability and relative prosperity came to an end in February 2011, when the revolts that began in Tunisia, and that had spread to countries such as Yemen, Jordan and Egypt, spilled over into Libya.
Unlike several other states in the region that experienced relatively peaceful resolutions to the protesters' demands, the immediately observable threat of civil war in Libya invited international intervention to the conflict. The United States (US) and the European Union (EU), with the support of the United Nations (UN), acted against the dictatorial regime of Muammar Gaddafi. With the capture and assassination of Gaddafi by the rebel troops, the war seemed to have ended. However, lacking a viable plan for a political transition, the situation further deteriorated as various political actors attempted to fill the power vacuum left behind, after the removal of Qaddafi.
Today, Libya continues to experience serious political instability and is considered a failed state. Although there is a government promoted and recognized by the UN, the Government of National Unity (GNU), it do not control the entire country and is challenged by various power groups, of which many are armed militias. Due to this lack of governmental authority, as well as its strategic location on the Mediterranean coast, Libya has become the base of operations of mafias trafficking people and taking advantage of refugees and migrants attempting to reach Europe via the Libyan land route. The open border policy launched by the EU in 2015 has facilitated the establishment of human trafficking routes by migrant smuggling networks. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that at least 400,000 people are currently in Libyan detention centers, where immigrants are an easy target for slave trade. The GNU has opened a formal investigation and met with European and African leaders to allow the emergency repatriation of refugees and immigrants. However, the effectiveness of the efforts of the Libyan authorities is limited. Notwithstanding, a larger issue is what role the international community can lay in alleviating the problem, of which non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been key voices in the discussion.
Testimonies
Since 2015, Oxfam has widely informed the international community about the migration crisis in Libya, and emphasized the need for European countries to seek and find a solution for the thousands of men, women and children who are suffering this situation. The cases documented in Libya of the slave trade, carried out by smugglers and militias, have made the search for a solution even more urgent.
In this regard, on August 9, 2017, Oxfam published a newsletter entitled "You are no longer human," in which it analyzed the facts of the Libyan situation and blamed the European countries for their "erroneous policies aimed to prevent people from reaching Italy." To develop this report Oxfam spoke "with men and women who have spent months being beaten, tied like animals and sold as cheap labor in the scandalous slave trade of Libya,' and is based on the '...anguished testimonies of immigrants who spent time in Libya before escaping to Italy."
The testimonies relate shocking scenes of sexual violence, torture and slave labor; they also present cases of people who have been held captive because of the impossibility of paying the price demanded by the smugglers. The latter happened to Peter, an 18-year-old Nigerian: "Once we had arrived in Sabah, in Libya, they took me to the 'Ghetto' (...) They gave us a telephone to call our families and they told us to ask them for money. If you could not pay the 1,500 Libyan dinars [about 100 euros] they would keep you captive and beat you."
After hearing these testimonies, Oxfam has come to the conclusion that European policies must take into account the experiences of people forced to leave their homes, as the information they provide clearly demonstrates that "Libya remains a country marked by systematic abuses against Human Rights and that (...) the EU's attempt to ensure that people cannot leave Libya only puts more men, women and children at risk of abuse and exploitation".
Some of the solutions that Oxfam has proposed are the promotion of search and rescue operations for humanitarian purposes, increasing the number of immigration applications that are accepted to be processed, the creation of safe routes to Europe, and ending the policy that prevent migrants from leaving Libya.
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Opening, closing borders
Another international agency that has actively denounced the inhuman situation in Libya is Amnesty International. According to this organization's data, the world is facing one of the most serious cases of slavery in the 21st century. Refugees and immigrants arriving in Libyan territory are forcefully held and tortured in detention centers before being sold as slaves. Those who succeed in escaping from such horrible conditions do not necessarily wind up in better circumstances: at least 3,000 people have died attempting to cross the Mediterranean.
Being one of the most active organizations regarding the situation in Libya, Amnesty International has called on the EU Member States to stop closing its borders to refugees and immigrants from Libya. It argues that this European policy only encourages and fuels violence and extortion in Libyan territory, which makes the EU an accomplice in this crisis.
Amnesty International recalls that since the end of 2016, the closure of European borders has favored an increase in control by the Libyan Anti-Immigration Department, which now oversees detention centers where refugees and immigrants are not only arbitrarily and indefinitely detained, but also frequently sold as slaves. In addition, according to organization, European inability or unwillingness to take action, mistakenly believing that what happens outside European borders bears no consequences on the EU's internal affairs, has allowed the Libyan Coast Guard to intercept people at sea. Instead of reaching the "promised land", migrants are forcibly taken back to Libya, where they are locked up and mistreated again in the detention centers. All this is aided by agreements reached by the EU and local Libyan authorities, supported by armed groups, with regards the control of migratory flows to Europe, which effectively sanctions violent repression.
International coordination
On December 7, 2017, the UN Security Council held an emergency session to take action regarding the slave trade situation in Libya. This situation was described as an "abuse of Human Rights that may also constitute crimes against humanity", in which case the Libyan authorities and all member states of the organization should act in accordance with public international law; taking those responsible to the International Criminal Court (ICC). In addition, the UN pointed to the Libyan authorities as one of the primary actors complicit in the growing slave trade phenomenon, due to their ineffectiveness investigating it and administering justice. The organization places special emphasis on the need for the Libyan Government to secure the borders and for its actions to be supported by various international instruments, so that effectively human trafficking can be effectively countered. Likewise, the UN also encourages cooperation with the EU and the African Union (AU) to guarantee the protection of refugees and immigrants, under the premise that success will only be achieved if all the actors involved collaborate.
Meanwhile, the UN is already operating in the territory through the International Organization for Migration (IOM), which has helped 13,000 people out of detention centers in Libya, and another 8,000 from those in Niger. But IOM's efforts do not end in Libya. Once the refugees and immigrants are safe, the organization stores their information and testimonies and offers them the possibility of returning home; guaranteeing the assistance of the IOM in the process.
Despite attempts to unify the efforts of all the organizations that are acting on the ground, the reality is that the UN today does not have an action plan that includes all parties to end slavery in Libya and look for a common solution. According to the reports of this organization, slavery in Libya could end in 2030, after 20 years of trial and error. It is, however, unsurprising, that most NGOs do not have action plans.
NGO solutions
NGOs play an important role in helping alleviate the humanitarian problems caused by migrations crises, yet the solutions they suggest oftentimes fail to take into consideration the complex political realities that make these very same solutions challenging - if not outright impossible - to achieve. As a result, many of the solutions offered by human rights agencies like Oxfam and Amnesty International are far too broad to be of any practical use. The migration crisis, reaching its peak in summer 2015 with the effective invitation of several European nations' heads to refugees to come to Europe - coupled with the relaxation of the Dublin regulations and an opening of borders inside the EU - paradoxically helped exacerbate the problem. It provided an incentive for the mass migration of individuals who fall out of the "refugee" category, encouraging risk-taking among migrants on the premise that the borders would remain open and everyone would be welcomed.
The result has been not only the rapid backtracking on this policy by a host of countries initially supporting it - like Austria - but also a dramatic internal, diplomatic conflict within the EU between countries for, and those against, mass migration into the EU. The crisis also shed light on the inability of the existing laws of both the EU and its member states in finding solutions to the migration problem. As such, the sweeping claim of opening borders as a solution to the problem may be well intentioned, yet does little to provide for a balanced solution to the problem.
Similarly, securing safe passages for migrants back to their home country rests on the assumption that there exists a functioning government in Libya with which such efforts can be coordinated, yet there exists no such entity as of yet. While the GNU does have a limited amount of control over certain swathes of territory, the problem remains to be that other parts of Libya do not fall under government control. While aiding (limited) migration and/or repatriation and securing the land and sea borders might be a first step in stemming the flow, the fact remains to be that it is political instability within Libya - as well as other nations - that breeds smuggling networks, of which the slave trade is one of many.
Thus, the policy of simply aiding more people into Europe through again relaxing the borders hardly solves the problem. At its height, the migration crisis saw hundreds of thousands of migrants stream through open borders in Europe, absent any realistic plans to deal with the numbers. What is seemingly less covered in the international news is the various hardships that migrants within their new host states have faced as a result of a utopian policy where the sky is the limit for migration. Most importantly, the open door policy for migration has similarly led to the proliferation of smuggling networks inside Europe that necessitated the establishment of new task forces to deal with them, although an increased control may result in the emergence of new routes and hotspots. Though the numbers involved are as large as those in Libya, the open door policy - pushed by a host of humanitarian organizations - has created smuggling networks involved in the smuggling of migrant men, women, and children, into prostitution among other things. Almost 90% of the migrants that arrive to Europe are facilitated by the smuggling multi-national business. The point being that illegal activities thrive as a result of failed policies, and the inability to find determinate policy solutions to the migrant crisis: a necessary ingredient for deriving successful practical ones.
A primary role of the states
The lack of governmental control over the territory in Libya, characteristic of a failed state, has made possible the proliferation of illegal and highly humiliating activities against human dignity, such as the slave trade. Images such as those of CNN, which provided evidence for how people were being sold as slaves in detention centers, have heightened international awareness of the problem. Numerous organizations, led by the UN, have intensified their work in recent months to try to put an end to such a disastrous situation. These efforts have achieved some results however, there is no meaningful method to upscale these efforts because they are not coordinated at the state level, and it is unlikely that the large-scale cooperation required by all parties involved is possible.
Further, the effects of the migration crisis are by no means unique to Libya or Africa, and have manifested in Europe as well. Although human trafficking, both into the slave trade as well as for other purposes, occurs on a much larger (and quite alarming) scale in the African theatre, the phenomenon has similarly come to plague Europe as a result of its failed (or non-existent) plan of action to manage migration, both internally and externally. The solution is necessarily political, and the reality is that - as well intentioned and necessary as they may be - the detached, rights-based, solutions of NGOs will not be determinate in solving the problem. Only states, working together with various NGOs, can put an end to this misery through well thought-out, coordinated, solutions. And, the sad reality is that not everyone can necessarily be saved in the process, nor will every migrant will be able to get their 'European dream."
▲Transfer of immigrants arriving from North Africa to the Italian island of Lampedusa [Vito Manzani].
ANALYSIS / Valeria Nadal [English version].
In late 2017, Cable News Network (CNN) published a video recorded anonymously with a hidden camera showing the sale of four men in Libya, for $400 each. It was an example of selling slaves to Libyan nationals for work or ransom, in the case of men, or as sex slaves, in the case of women. The shocking images triggered a global response; several Hollywood celebrities joined the protests calling for an end to the slave trade in Libya. France, Germany, Chad, Nigeria and other countries have urged Libya to address this serious problem through a repatriation program for migrants and the evacuation of detention camps, where many of the slave mafias operate. Circumstances, however, do not appear to have improved since the video was released, mainly because there continues to be a lack of state coordination to address the problem, along with other factors. How is it possible that a slave trade could have occurred inside Libya?
Libya is a large country located in North Africa, with a long Mediterranean coastline. Until 2011, when the Arab Spring broke out, Libya was one of the most stable countries in the region. It had one of the highest life expectancies in all of Africa, and an educational system - from primary Education to university - better than most neighboring countries. However, this status of stability and relative prosperity came to an end in February 2011, when the uprisings that began in Tunisia, and had spread to countries such as Yemen, Jordan and Egypt, reached Libya.
Unlike other states in the region, which were able to peacefully resolve the demands of the protesters, the immediate threat of civil war in Libya forced an international intervention to resolve the conflict. The United States (US) and the European Union (EU), with the support of the United Nations (UN), acted against the dictatorial regime of Muammar Gaddafi. With the capture and killing of Qaddafi by rebel troops, the war seemed to be over. However, in the absence of a viable plan for a political transition, the status deteriorated further as various political actors attempted to fill the power vacuum left by Qaddafi's demise.
Today, Libya continues to experience severe political instability and is considered a failed state. Although there is a government promoted and recognized by the UN, the Government of National Unity (GNU), it does not control the entire country and is challenged by various power groups, many of which are armed militias. Due to this lack of governmental authority, as well as its strategic location on the Mediterranean coast, Libya has become a base of operations for mafias, which take advantage of the willingness of refugees and migrants to reach Europe via the Libyan land route. The open borders policy launched by the EU in 2015 has not helped curb their activities, as it has facilitated the establishment of human smuggling routes. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that at least 400,000 people are currently held in Libyan detention centers, where migrants are an easy goal for the slave trade. The GUN has opened a formal research and has met with European and African leaders to enable emergency repatriation of refugees and migrants. However, the effectiveness of the Libyan authorities' efforts is limited. A more important issue, however, is the role that the international community can play in alleviating the problem, of which non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been core topic voices in the discussion.
Testimonials
Since 2015, Oxfam has reported extensively to the international community on the migration crisis in Libya, and has emphasized the need for European countries to seek and find a solution for the thousands of men, women and children suffering from this status. Documented cases of slave trafficking in Libya, carried out by smugglers and militias, have made the search for a solution even more urgent.
In the wake of this alarming status in Libya, on August 9, 2017, Oxfam published agraduate bulletin "You Are No Longer Human," in which it analyzed the facts of the status in Libya and blamed European countries for their "misguided policies aimed at preventing people from reaching Italy." To develop this report, Oxfam spoke "with men and women who have spent months being beaten, tied up like animals and sold as cheap labor in Libya's scandalous slave trade," and drew on the "...anguished testimonies of migrants who spent time in Libya before escaping to Italy."
The testimonies recount shocking scenes of sexual violence, torture and slave work ; they also recount cases of people who have been held captive because of the impossibility of paying the price demanded by the smugglers. The latter happened to Peter, an 18-year-old Nigerian: "Once we arrived in Sabah, in Libya, they took me to the 'Ghetto' (...) They gave us a phone to call our families and ask them for money. If you could not pay the 1,500 Libyan dinars [about 100 euros], you were held captive and beaten."
After hearing these testimonies, Oxfam has concluded that European policies must take into account the experiences of people forced to flee their homes, as the information they provide clearly sample that "Libya remains a country marked by systematic human rights abuses and (...) the EU's attempt to ensure that people cannot leave Libya only puts more men, women and children at risk of abuse and exploitation."
Some of the solutions Oxfam has proposed include promoting humanitarian search and rescue operations, increasing the issue of immigration applications that are accepted for processing, creating safe routes to Europe, and ending the policy that prevents migrants from leaving Libya.
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Open, close borders
Another international agency that has actively denounced the inhumane status in Libya is Amnesty International. According to this organization's data , the world is facing one of the most serious cases of slavery in the 21st century. Refugees and migrants arriving on Libyan territory are detained and tortured in detention centers before being sold into slavery. Those who manage to escape such horrible conditions do not necessarily end up in better circumstances: at least 3,000 people have died trying to cross the Mediterranean.
As one of the most active organizations regarding the status in Libya, Amnesty International has order EU member states to stop closing their borders to refugees and migrants from Libya. It argues that this European policy only encourages and fuels violence and extortion on Libyan territory, making the EU complicit in this crisis.
Amnesty International recalls that, since the end of 2016, the closure of European borders has favored increased control by the Libyan Anti-Immigration department , which now oversees detention centers where refugees and migrants are not only arbitrarily and indefinitely detained, but also often sold as slaves. Moreover, according to the organization, the European inability or unwillingness to act, mistakenly believing that what happens outside European borders has no consequences for the EU's internal affairs, has allowed the Libyan Coast Guard to intercept people at sea. Instead of reaching the "promised land", migrants are forcibly taken back to Libya, where they are locked up and mistreated again in detention centers. All this is favored by the agreements reached by the EU and the local Libyan authorities, backed by armed groups, regarding the control of migratory flows to Europe.
International coordination
On December 7, 2017, the UN Securitycommittee held an emergency session to take action on the status of the slave trade in Libya. This status was described as an "abuse of human rights that may also constitute crimes against humanity", in which case the Libyan authorities and all member states of the organization should act in agreement with International Public Law by bringing those responsible before the International Criminal Court (ICC). In addition, the UN pointed to the Libyan authorities as one of the main actors complicit in the growing phenomenon of slave trafficking, due to their ineffectiveness in investigating it and administering justice. The organization has also placed particular emphasis on the need for the Libyan government to secure its borders and for its actions to be supported by various international instruments, so that human trafficking can be effectively countered. The UN has also encouraged cooperation with the EU and the African Union (AU) to ensure the protection of refugees and migrants, on the premise that success will only be achieved if all actors involved work together.
Meanwhile, the UN is already operating in the territory through the International Organization for Migration (IOM), which has helped 13,000 people to leave detention centers in Libya, and another 8,000 from those in Niger. But IOM's efforts do not end in Libya. Once refugees and migrants are safe, the organization stores their information and testimonies and offers them the possibility of returning home, ensuring IOM's attendance in the process.
Despite attempts to unify the efforts of all organizations active on the ground, the reality is that the UN today does not have a plan of action that includes all parties to end slavery in Libya and seek a common solution. According to reports from this organization, slavery in Libya could end by 2030, after 20 years of test and error. Not surprisingly, however, most NGOs have no action plans.
NGO solutions
NGOs play an important role in helping to alleviate the humanitarian problems caused by migration; however, the solutions they suggest often do not take into account the complex political realities that make reaching those solutions, if not totally impossible, at least challenging. As a result, many of the proposals offered by human rights agencies such as Oxfam and Amnesty International are too broad to be useful internship. The migration crisis, which reached its peak in the summer of 2015 with the effective invitation by several European nations for refugees to migrate to Europe-coupled with the relaxation of Dublin regulations and the opening of borders within the EU-paradoxically helped to exacerbate the problem. These measures provided an incentive for mass migration of people who did not fall into the "refugee" category, encouraging risk-taking among migrants on the premise that borders would remain open and all would be welcome.
The result has not only been the rapid backtracking on this policy by a number of countries that initially supported it, such as Austria, but also a dramatic internal and diplomatic conflict within the EU between countries that are against mass migration to the territory of the Union. The crisis also shed light on the inability of the existing laws of both the EU and its member states to find solutions to the migration problem. Thus, the policy of open borders as a solution to the problem may be well intentioned, but ineffective in providing a balanced solution to the problem.
Similarly, ensuring safe passage for migrants back to their home country is based on the assumption that there is an actual functioning government in Libya with which such efforts can be coordinated; however, no such entity exists as yet. While the GUN has a limited amount of control over certain swaths of territory, the problem remains that in other parts of Libya this government exercises no control. While assisting (limited) migration and/or repatriation and securing land and sea borders could be a first step in stemming the flow, the fact remains that political instability in Libya - as well as in other nations - is what breeds smuggling networks, one of which is the slave trade.
Therefore, the European policy of helping more people by relaxing borders hardly solves the problem. At its height, the migration crisis saw hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing open borders in Europe, with no realistic plan to deal with the numbers. Moreover, the international press seems to be reporting less aggressively on the various difficulties migrants face within their new host states as a result of a utopian policy in which the sky is the limit for immigration. More importantly, the open-door policy for immigration - pushed by a number of humanitarian organizations - has also led to the proliferation of smuggling networks within Europe that have required the establishment of new work forces to deal with them, although the result of this measure could be worse as increased control may lead to the emergence of new routes and access points. Nearly 90% of migrants arriving in Europe are facilitated by the multinational smuggling business. The point is that illegal activities thrive as a result of failed policies and the inability to find determined political solutions to the migration crisis: a necessary ingredient for successful practical measures.
The primary role of the states
The lack of government control over territory in Libya, characteristic of a failed state, has made possible the proliferation of illegal and highly humiliating activities against human dignity, such as the slave trade. Images such as the one on CNN, which provided evidence of people being sold into slavery in detention centers, have raised international awareness of the problem. Numerous organizations, led by the UN, have intensified their work in recent months to try to put an end to such a disastrous status . These efforts have achieved some results, however, there is no meaningful method to improve them because they are not coordinated at the state level, and the large-scale cooperation required by all parties involved is unlikely to be possible.
Moreover, the effects of the migration crisis are not unique to Libya or Africa, and have manifested themselves in Europe as well. Although human trafficking, both in the slave trade and for other purposes, occurs on a much larger (and quite alarming) scale in the African theater, the phenomenon has similarly affected Europe as a result of its failed - or non-existent - plan of action to manage immigration, both internally and externally. The solution is necessarily political, and the reality is that, however well-intentioned and necessary, the independent, rights-based solutions advocated by NGOs will not be decisive in solving the problem. Only states, working together with various NGOs, can put an end to this misery through well thought out and coordinated solutions. And the sad reality is that not everyone can necessarily be saved in the process, nor will all migrants be able to obtain their "European dream".
▲Lower course of the Nile River, in Egypt [Pixabay].
ANALYSIS / Albert Vidal [English version].
The disputes over the control of rivers, lakes and, definitely, water, are especially alive and will intensify in a near future, since, according to the World Health Organization, in 2025; half of the world population will live in areas with water scarcity. Currently, the countries with the biggest water reserves are Brazil, Russia, USA, Canada, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, India and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Most of the water available is either located underground, or concentrates in aquifers and superficial waters (rivers and lakes). The aquifers with the largest water reserves are the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (under the Sahara Desert), the Great Artesian Basin (in Australia) and the Guaraní Aquifer (in South America). However, there are some rivers whose importance is exceptional, because of the large amount of population and industries that depend on them. Problems arise when these rivers do not belong to a single state, but are contiguous rivers or cross-border ones, which cause disputes between some states.
Sources of tension in Asia
Asia is being especially affected by this problem. Currently, there are various tensions that revolve around water control. One of the most significant cases is the use of the Indus River water, which supports 300 million people and has caused problems between Pakistan and India. This river is a vital resource for both countries. With the independence of Pakistan, the Indus became a source of disputes. As an attempt to solve this problem, the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) was formed, which gave India the three eastern tributaries (the Sutlesh, the Ravi and the Beas) and Pakistan was given the three western rivers (the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab). But due to water shortages, Pakistan has recently protested against the construction of dams in the Indian part of the river (upstream section of the river, which is located in the Kashmir administered by India), which restrict the supply of water to Pakistan and reduce the flow of the river. India, for its part, defends itself by saying that these projects are contemplated in the Treaty; even then, the tensions do not seem to decrease. For this reason, Pakistan has asked the World Bank to appoint the president of an international arbitration tribunal, in order to resolve this conflict. This problem of water reserves is the core of the confrontation in Kashmir: without an adequate supply, Pakistan would not take long to become a desert.
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The Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins [Wikimedia Commons-Shannon I]. |
The Indus River basin [Wikiwand]. |
In Asia there is also the dispute over the Mekong River, which crosses Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. This conflict revolves around the construction of dams by various countries, as well as the exploitation of the resources provided by the Mekong River. The construction of 11 dams along the river is planned, which would produce a large amount of electricity and would be beneficial for some countries, but could threaten the food security of millions of people. The affected countries (Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand) formed in 1995 the Mekong River Commission (MRC). This commission was created in order to promote dialogue and foster the fair and equitable use of river waters. The MRC has mediated between countries several times; in 2010 for the construction of a dam by Laos and Thailand, and the same situation occurred in 2013. The talks have not been very effective, and there are concerns about the lives of millions of people, who could be affected if the conflict intensifies.
The ineffectiveness of this organization could be summarized as follows: decisions on the construction of the dams are taken directly without submitting them to the MRC, and the construction companies put such pressure on the governments, that it is very difficult to carry out evaluations on the environmental impacts. Furthermore, as it is not a binding treaty, members end up ignoring its guidelines and prefer to "cooperate" in a broad sense. In any case, the talks are still going on; although, for the time being, the MRC does not seem capable of taking on the weight of the negotiations. This gives the conflict an uncertain and dangerous future.
A third focus of friction is that which affects the ex-Soviet region of Central Asia. During the Cold War, these regions shared resources as follows: republics with mountainous terrain (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) had abundant water, and supplied it to the republics downstream (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) to generate electricity and irrigate the crops. In turn, the republics downstream supplied gas and coal to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan during the winter. But when the USSR collapsed, all of that changed. Water shortages and power cuts started being common, as these independent countries decided to stop sharing water and energy. As the think-tank International Crisis Group proclaims, "The root of the problem is the disintegration of the resource-sharing system the Soviet Union imposed on the region until its collapse in 1991."
Thus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have decided to build hydroelectric dams on the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers to produce their own energy and face the constant blackouts (potentially lethal in winter). This, of course, will limit access to water for millions of people living in the other three republics, which has led to small-scale conflicts. Threats have also abounded, such as that of the Uzbek President Islom Karimov, who in 2012 said: "Water resources could become a problem in the future that could escalate tensions not only in our region, but on every continent ". He added: "I won't name specific countries, but all of this could deteriorate to the point where not just serious confrontation, but even wars could be the result." Despite the threats, the projects have continued on their way, and therefore an increase in tension in the region can be expected.
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The course of the Nile River [Wikimedia Commons-Yale Environment 360]. |
The Mekong River basin [Wikimedia Commons-Shannon I]. |
The control of the Nile
The Nile River appears as a source of tension between different African countries. To understand the existing problem, we must go back more than a century ago. Already in 1868, Egypt tried to occupy Ethiopia to take control of the Nile riverbed. In 1929 an agreement was signed during the colonial era, in which the waters of the Nile were distributed. In this agreement (which was reaffirmed in 1959), Egypt obtained most of the water for its use, while Sudan obtained only a small part. The remaining nine countries of the Nile basin were ignored in the treaty. At the same time, Egypt was allowed to build projects on the Nile River while the rest of the riparian countries were forbidden to do the same without the permission of Egypt.
In 1999, the Nile Basin Initiative was created: it was a commission entrusted with the organization of a fair distribution of the water and the resources of the Nile River. But since it did not perform as expected, in 2010 was signed, as a consequence of the unequal distribution of water, the Entebbe Agreement (by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi). This agreement, deeply controversial and opposed by Egypt and Sudan, allows riparian countries to build dams and other projects without Egypt's permission, thus breaking the restrictions imposed by the colonial treaties. In addition, this has upset the balance in the region, as Egypt and Sudan have lost the monopoly over the resources of the Nile.
It is vital to understand the geographical situation of these actors. The Nile is born in several countries, and ends up going through Sudan and Egypt, finally flowing into the Mediterranean Sea. Egypt, in particular, is a country completely dependent on the Nile River. It receives more than 90% of its fresh water from this river, and its industry and agriculture need the Nile to have any chance of survival. Until a few years ago, and because of the colonial treaties, Egypt had exercised a monopoly on the use of water in the Nile; but still, the situation is changing.
The confrontation has arisen between Egypt and Ethiopia (where the Blue Nile is born). The latter is a country with more than 100 million inhabitants, which in 2011 had a project to build a dam: the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD). With an investment of $4.7 billion dollars, this dam would solve the energy deficit of Ethiopia, and would eventually convert this country into a net exporter of electricity (it would produce 6,000 MW per year). The drawback is that the dam will be fed with water from the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile River. The danger of evaporation of more than 3 billion cubic meters per year and the reduction of the flow to fill the reserve could affect Egypt in a catastrophic way. In addition to the dangers derived from the overuse of water, the growth of the population and the demand for a better redistribution of water among the riparian countries should be taken into account.
This problem has increased tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt: in 2010 an email from an Egyptian high command was leaked on Wikileaks, stating that they were discussing military cooperation with Sudan against Ethiopia, with plans to establish a base in Sudan for the Egyptian Special Forces with the intention of attacking the GERD. Egypt also thought about supporting proxy rebel groups in Ethiopia, to destabilize the government. Anyway, we must bear in mind that Egypt has always tended to use an aggressive rhetoric towards all problems related to the Nile (source of life in Egypt, the engine of its economy), but the nation of the Pharaohs is not in a position to launch a military offensive against Ethiopia, since their domestic problems have exhausted the country, losing its position of clear predominance in the region.
But the future is not so bleak. In March 2015, a preliminary agreement was signed in Khartoum between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the Renaissance dam and on the water allocation. Such agreement accepted Ethiopia's right to build the dam without damaging Sudan and Egypt's water supply. Although these two countries are alarmed at what will happen once the reservoir begins to fill, this is a first step towards an era of cooperation. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (President of Egypt) said at the convention: "let's not dwell in the past, we have chosen to move forward together, based on a relationship founded on trust". Finally, in November of 2015 the independent analysis commission to observe the consequences of the dam was not approved, because after Sudan accused Egypt of using part of the Sudanese quota, a war of declarations began, which put in danger the fragile cooperation between these countries.
Such cooperation in the field of water resources will have beneficial effects in many other areas and, although a failure in the negotiations cannot be ruled out, it is most likely that thanks to the construction of GERD and regional cooperation, the links between these countries will become stronger, meaning this a new era of peace and development in this region.
A case of cooperation: the Paraná
The Paraná, a cross-border river that starts in Brazil and crosses Paraguay to flow into Río de la Plata, is a very different example. Its basin is linked to the Guaraní Aquifer (one of the largest water reserves in the world), and that is a guarantee of the great volume of water that this river has throughout the year. For this reason, many hydroelectric plants have been built, taking advantage of the waterfalls and also the rapids. On the other hand, the importance of this river at a political and economic level is huge; the Paraná and the Plata Basin feed the most industrialized and populated area of South America. That is why cooperation has been especially important.
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The Parana River, axis of the Rio del Plata basin [Wikimedia Commons-Kmusser]. |
The Itaipú dam (the second largest dam in the world and the first one in world production) is a binational dam, built by Paraguay and Brazil. It was the result of intense negotiations (which were not always easy), and it now produces an average of 90 million MWh (megawatt-hour) per year. Even so, there was not always harmony between Paraguay and Brazil: in 1872, disputes about borders began. After many unsuccessful agreements, it was agreed to flood the disputed territories and create a hydroelectric dam. The reluctance that the initiative raised in Argentina (because the regulation affected the flow that continued downstream until Río de la Plata) resulted in a three-way deal in 1979. In 1984, the dam became fully operational. Today it is managed by the Itaipú Binational Entity, a public-private company between Paraguay and Brazil, and supplies more than 16% of the total energy consumed in Brazil, and more than 75% of that consumed in Paraguay. Although the environmental impact was intense, Itaipu has promoted campaigns to maintain biological reserves and protect the fauna and flora. In addition, it has reforested large areas around the reservoir, and continues to ensure the quality of the water.
This is a clear example of the benefits that a reasonable and shared use of water can bring between countries that decide to cooperate. Thus, countries that are involved in some of the current controversies should look at these examples of behavior which, although not perfect, a lot can be learned from them.
Although water may be the origin of disputes between peoples and nations (as the cases mentioned), it also offers very advantageous opportunities (what happened in the Paraná River, or in the Nile) for countries that manage to cooperate. This cooperation, initiated to avoid conflicts over water, can lead to new stages of harmony and strengthen commercial, political and security relations. It is vital to show how an attitude of predisposition to negotiate and cooperate will always have positive consequences for countries that share river flows.
▲Lower course of the Nile River, Egypt [Pixabay].
March 9, 2018
ANALYSIS / Albert Vidal [English version].
Disputes over the control of rivers, lakes and, final, water, are particularly intense today and will intensify in the near future, since, according to the World Health Organization, by 2025 half of the world's population will be living in areas with water shortages. Currently, the countries with the most water reserves are Brazil, Russia, USA, Canada, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Most of the available water is underground, concentrated in aquifers, or is surface water (rivers and lakes). The aquifers with the largest reserves are the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (under the Sahara Desert), the Great Artesian Basin (in Australia) and the Guarani Aquifer (in South America). On the other hand, there are a number of rivers in the world whose importance is exceptional, simply because of the huge amount of population and economic activity that depends on them. Problems arise when these rivers are not part of a single State, but are contiguous or transboundary rivers, and this leads to disputes between some States.
Tension hotspots in Asia
Asia is being particularly affected by this problem. There are currently several tensions revolving around the control of water. One of the most significant cases is the use of water from the Indus River, which supports 300 million people and has caused tensions between Pakistan and India. This river is a vital resource for both countries. With Pakistan's independence, the Indus became a source of dispute. This was addressed by the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), which gave India the three eastern tributaries (the Sutlesh, the Ravi and the Beas) and Pakistan the three western rivers (the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab). But due to water scarcity, Pakistan has recently protested against the construction of dams on the Indian side of the river (in Indian-administered Kashmir), which restrict water supply to Pakistan and reduce the river's flow. India, for its part, defends itself by saying that these projects are covered by the Treaty; even so, tensions do not seem to be easing. Pakistan has therefore asked the World Bank order appoint the president of an international arbitration tribunal to settle the dispute. This problem of water reserves is at the heart of the Kashmir dispute: without adequate supplies, Pakistan would soon become a desert.
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Basins in Central Asia [Wikimedia Commons-Shannon I]. |
Indus River Basin [Wkiwand]. |
In Asia, there is also a dispute over the Mekong River, which flows through Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. This conflict revolves around the construction of dams by various countries, as well as the exploitation of the resources provided by the Mekong River. Eleven dams are planned to be built along the river, which would produce a large amount of electricity and would be beneficial for some countries, but could threaten the food security of millions of people. The countries concerned (Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand) formed the Mekong River Commission (MRC) in 1995. This commission was formed to promote dialogue and encourage fair and equitable use of the river's waters. The MRC has mediated between countries several times; in 2010 over the construction of a dam by Laos and Thailand, and the same status was given in 2013. The talks have not result very effective, and there are fears for the lives of millions of people, who could be affected should the conflict escalate.
The ineffectiveness of this body could be summarized as follows: decisions on dam construction are made directly without being submitted to the MRC, and construction companies put so much pressure on governments that it is very difficult to carry out environmental impact assessments. Moreover, since it is not a binding treaty, members end up ignoring its guidelines and prefer to "cooperate" in a broad sense. In any case, the talks continue even though, at present, the MRC does not seem capable of taking on the weight of the negotiations. This gives the conflict an uncertain and dangerous future.
A third source of friction concerns the ex-Soviet region of Central Asia. During the Cold War, these regions shared resources as follows: the mountainous republics (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) had abundant water, which they supplied to the downstream republics (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) to generate electricity and irrigate crops. In turn, the downstream republics supplied gas and coal to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan during the winter. But with the collapse of the USSR all that changed and there began to be water shortages and power cuts, as these independent countries decided to stop sharing water and power. As the think-tank International Crisis Group proclaims, "the root of the problem lies in the disintegration of the source-sharing system imposed by the Soviet Union in the region until its collapse in 1991".
Thus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have decided to build hydroelectric dams on the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers to produce their own power to cope with constant blackouts (potentially lethal in winter). This, of course, will limit access to water for millions of people living in the other three republics, which has led to small-scale conflicts. Threats have also abounded, such as that of Uzbek President Islom Karimov, who in 2012 said: "Water resources could become a future problem that could lead to an escalation of tensions not only in our region, but in the whole continent"; he added: "I will not name specific countries, but all this could deteriorate to the point where the result would not only be a confrontation, but wars. Despite the threats, the projects have continued on their way, and therefore an increase in tension in the region is to be expected.
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The course of the Nile [Wikimedia Commons-Yale Environment 360]. |
Mekong River Basin [Wikimedia Commons-Shannon I]. |
Control of the Nile
The Nile River appears as a source of tension between several African countries. To understand the existing problems, we must go back more than a century. As early as 1868, Egypt attempted to occupy Ethiopia in order to take control of the Nile River. In 1929, agreements were signed during the colonial era, in which the waters of the Nile were shared. In these agreements (which were reaffirmed in 1959), Egypt got most of the water for its use, while Sudan got a small share. The remaining 9 countries of the Nile Basin were removed from the treaty. At the same time, Egypt was allowed to build projects on the Nile River while the other riparian countries were prohibited from doing the same without Egypt's permission.
In 1999, the Nile Basin Initiative was created: a commission in charge of organizing a fair sharing of the water and resources of the Nile River. But not having the expected effect, the Entebbeagreement (by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi) was signed in 2010 as a consequence of the unequal sharing of water. This agreement, deeply disputed by Egypt and Sudan, allows riparian countries to build dams and other projects, thus breaking with the restrictions imposed by colonial treaties. Moreover, this has altered the balance in the region, as Egypt and Sudan have lost their monopoly over the Nile's resources.
It is vital to understand the geographical status of these actors. The Nile rises in several countries, and ends up passing through Sudan and Egypt to flow into the Mediterranean Sea. Egypt, in particular, is a country totally dependent on the Nile River. It receives more than 90% of its fresh water from this river, and its industry and agriculture need the Nile to survive. Until a few years ago, thanks to colonial treaties, Egypt had a monopoly on the use of the water, but recently the status has been changing.
Therefore, the confrontation has basically arisen between Egypt and Ethiopia (where the Blue Nile rises). The latter is a country with a population of over 100 million inhabitants, which in 2011 set up a dam construction project : the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD). With an investment of $4.7 billion, this dam would solve Ethiopia's energy deficit, and would turn the country into a net exporter of electricity (it would produce 6,000 MW per year). The drawback is that the dam will be fed by water from the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile River. The danger of evaporation of more than 3 billion cubic meters per year and the reduction of the flow to fill the reservation could have a catastrophic effect on Egypt. In addition to the dangers arising from the overuse of water, there is also population growth and the demand for a better redistribution of water among the riparian countries.
This issue has led to tensions between the two countries: in 2010 an email from a senior Egyptian commander was leaked on Wikileaks stating: "we are discussing military cooperation with Sudan against Ethiopia, with plans to establish a base in Sudan for Egyptian Special Forces to attack the GERD project ". Egypt also thought of preparing support for proxy rebel groups in Ethiopia, to destabilize the government. Anyway, we must keep in mind that Egypt has always tended to use an aggressive rhetoric towards any issue related to the Nilesource of life, engine of its Economics), but really the nation of the Pharaohs is not in a position to launch armed actions, since its domestic problems have worn the country down, thus losing its position of clear predominance in the region.
But not all the future is so black. In March 2015, a preliminary agreement was signed in Khartoum between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the Renaissance Dam and water sharing, accepting Ethiopia's right to build the dam without damaging the water supply of Egypt and Sudan. Although these two countries are alarmed at what will happen once the reservation begins to fill, this is a first step towards an era of cooperation. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (President of Egypt) himself said at the convention: "we have chosen to cooperate and trust each other, for the sake of development". Finally, in November of the same year, an independent analysis commission to observe the consequences of the dam could not be approve , because after Sudan accused Egypt of using part of the Sudanese quota, a war of declarations started, which endangered the fragile cooperation between these countries.
This cooperation in the field of water resources will have beneficial repercussions in many other areas and, although a failure of the negotiations cannot be ruled out, it is most likely that thanks to the construction of the GERD and regional cooperation, ties between these countries will become stronger, which may mark the starting point of a new era of peace and development in this region.
A case of cooperation: the Paraná
The Paraná, a border and transboundary river that originates in Brazil and crosses Paraguay to flow into the Río de la Plata, is a very different example. Its basin is linked to the Guarani Aquifer (one of the largest water reserves in the world), and that is a guarantee of the great water Issue that this river has throughout the year. For this reason, many hydroelectric power plants have been built, taking advantage of the waterfalls and rapids. On the other hand, the importance of this river at a political and economic level is a core topic; the Paraná and the La Plata Basin feed the most industrialized and populated area of South America. For this reason, cooperation has been especially important.
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The Paraná, central axis of the La Plata basin [Wikimedia Commons-Kmusser]. |
The Itaipu dam (the second largest in the world and first in world production) is a bi-national dam, built by Paraguay and Brazil. It was the result of intense negotiations (not always easy), and now produces an average of 90 million MWh (megawatt-hours) per year. Even so, there was not always harmony between Paraguay and Brazil: in 1872, border disputes began. After many unworkable agreements, it was agreed to flood the disputed territories and create a hydroelectric dam. The reluctance that the initiative aroused in Argentina, because the regulation affected the flow downstream to the Rio de la Plata, resulted in a three-way agreement in 1979. In 1984 the dam came into operation. Today it is managed by the Itaipu Binational Entity, a public-private business between Paraguay and Brazil, and supplies more than 16% of the total energy consumed in Brazil, and more than 75% of that consumed in Paraguay. Although the environmental impact was great, Itaipu has promoted campaigns to maintain biological reserves and protect the fauna and flora. In addition, it has reforested large areas around the reservoir, and cares for the quality of the water.
This is a clear example of the benefits of reasonable and shared use between countries that decide to cooperate. Thus, countries that are party to some of the current controversies should look at these examples of behavior which, while not perfect, can learn a lot from them.
Although water can be the source of disputes between peoples and nations (as in the cases cited above), it also offers very advantageous opportunities (as in the case of the Parana or Nile rivers) for countries that manage to cooperate. This cooperation, initiated to avoid conflicts over water, can lead to new stages of harmony and strengthen commercial, political and security relations. It is core topic, then, to show how an attitude of willingness to negotiate and cooperate will always have positive consequences for countries sharing river flows.
[Michael Reid, Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America. Yale University Press, New Haven, 2017. 425 pages]
review / María F. Zambrano
Latin America's recent history is full of progress, even if at times only a few steps backward. In addition to the important changes that have taken place since the 1980s, when the region embraced democracy, began to overcome economic protectionism and tamed the problem of inflation, more recently there has been a period of economic acceleration - known as the golden decade, due to the boom in raw materials - which between 2002 and 2012 has meant a social B : 60 million people escaped poverty in those years, so that, although great inequalities continue to exist, at least theaverage class now extends to 50% of the population. This has generated better educated societies, which have recognized the primacy of law over the paternalism of the caudillo. But the large revenues that many states obtained in that golden decade also led to negative courses.
This moderate optimism about Latin America -without ignoring the difficulties, but without ignoring the progress made- is what is conveyed in the book Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America, by Michael Reid, Latin America publisher of The Economist, where he writes the Bello column. A correspondent for almost 35 years in the region, where he has lived most of this time, Reid is one of the voices with the best knowledge of the multiple continental realities. The result of that staff experience is Forgotten Continent, which Reid published in 2007 (then with the subtitle "The Battle for the Soul of Latin America") and which he now offers again in a revised and updated edition, with extensive changes with respect to the first version.
What has happened in Latin America in the last ten years to make Reid see the need for a new presentation of his book? Although there are various elements, such as the end of the commodities boom, which has brought economic difficulties to some countries, and certain changes in political orientation (Kirschner for Macri, or Temer for Rousseff), perhaps the most notable thing is that, in democratic terms, Latin America today looks less hopeful than it did a decade ago. Ten years ago, the new left-wing populism might have seemed a mere parenthesis in the progressive democratic consolidation of Latin American societies; today, Bolivarianism has certainly already shown signs of failure, but it may have greater continuity than expected when inserted with the current of populism of various kinds that is emerging in many other parts of the world.
Reid notes the failed path taken by Chávez, also followed by other neighboring leaders of the same ilk: "There are lessons for the region in the catastrophic failure of Chavismo. An accident in history -the rise in oil prices from 2001 onwards- gave for a time spurious plausibility in some places to an alternative course to which Latin Americans seemed to have turned their backs not long ago. The 'Bolivarian alternative' was based on erroneous premises (...) In its enchantment with Bolivarianism and renewed regard for Cuba, much of the left forgot the enduring lessons of the end of the Cold War: that central planning had failed and that communism was tyranny, not liberation." In any case, the Bolivarian experience has shown that Latin America did not enter an era of assured democracy at the end of its military dictatorships, as we now see that neither did the rest of the world with the fall of the Berlin Wall, despite the perception at the time. The risk in the region is perhaps greater, due to the persistence of strong social differences: as Reid says, Chavismo is "another reminder that extreme inequality provides fertile ground for populism".
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Challenges ahead
In a post-Chávez and post commodity price boom era, Latin America faces a series of challenges, which are certainly long-standing but in some cases more urgent. The double goal of achieving strong institutions and sustainable economic development requires solving important challenges, among which Reid highlights several.
One of them is security. Crime and violence have become an epidemic. In 2013, eight of the ten countries and 42 of the 50 most violent cities in the world, outside theaters of war, were in the region. Reid points to the need for territorial control by the armed forces, the professionalization of police forces, closer cooperation between police and judges, and clear accountability of these bodies to society.
Another challenge is the consolidation of the new class average. There has been progress in primary and secondary Education , but the preparation of both students and teachers is far below that of their peers in developed countries. In the 2015 PISA report , Latin American 15-year-old students were in the bottom third of the world ranking. If the status does not evolve favorably with an increase in the quality of public teaching , warns Reid, private entities would become the first alternative for the new social stratum, which would even be subjected to indebtedness without quality guarantees. This is a phenomenon that also occurs in health care.
In the fight against social inequality, many governments have promoted various Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) formulas, which are social attendance programs that seek to raise attitudinal standards, such as school enrollment of children, in exchange for subsidies. Some programs have been successful in contributing to social development , but in many cases they transfer resources without achieving long-term progress, and in some countries they have become a clear cultivation of a captive vote. By having two parallel social security systems, the government is taxing the formal sector while subsidizing the informal sector.
Esperanza
To overcome these challenges, Forgotten Continent proposes the need to advance regional integration, diversify the Economics and overcome political dogmatism. Thus, true regional integration would allow for skill that would stimulate economies of scale and regional supply chains. To overcome, at least in part, the natural barriers that hinder such integration, real investment in infrastructure beyond the current 3% of GDP is needed.
Raw materials will continue to be an important economic driver in the region, but they should not be the only one. Agricultural production should provide added value, derived from the application of innovative technologies, such as the advances being made in Argentina and Brazil with "no-till farming" and "precision agriculture". This requires an increase in investment in research and development, which currently accounts for only 0.5% of GDP. Latin America also has many natural resources that are conducive to the development of tourism and the expansion of manufacturing industries.
The author proposes to break with the historical discussion between unrestricted free market and protectionism, and to stop nurturing the corporatist culture of seeing power as a staff patrimony. "To get there requires a new subject of politics: instead of the polarization and confrontation offered by populists (and sometimes by their opponents), Latin America needs consensus building, where the state, the private sector and civil society work together to set medium-term goals and hold the government accountable for their fulfillment".
These propositional elements by Reid come at the end of a book that is above all a description of the soul of Latin America. It is a continent that has not been poor or dangerous enough, nor has it grown fast enough economically, to attract international attention. Hence the degree scroll of the book. It begins by outlining the structural, geographic and cultural difficulties that the region has had to face in its attempt to establish lasting democracies and overcome its imbalances. It continues with an analysis of the political and economic cycles, from independence to the latest dictatorships. And finally concludes with a diagnosis. Although the problems of Latin America were already well diagnosed in the first edition, ten years ago, it is in this final part of the book where the author has changed more pages. His conclusion does not vary much, but the tone is slightly more somber; nevertheless, Reid prefers to end the story with the same hopeful quotation of the Argentine liberal Bautista Alberdi: "Nations, like men, have no wings; they make their journeys on foot, step by step".