▲The H6K of the People's Liberation Army Air Force of China flying over the Pacific

COMMENTARY / Ignacio Cristóbal Urbicain* [English version] [Spanish version].

Only three countries in the world have strategic or long-range bombers (USA, Russia and China). The mission of this type of weapons is to project force over very long distances, normally within enemy airspace, in order to destroy, using its important armament load, strategic objectives, such as industry, infrastructure and logistics. It is also an important deterrent weapon.

In the case of China, its strategic aviation has the mission, required by the defense of its national interests, of projecting a threat at very long distances in order to avoid the approach and entry of the US Navy battle groups (aircraft carriers and cruise ships) into the South China Sea.

For this purpose, China has the Xian H-6. This aircraft is a derivation of the Russian Tupolev Tu-16 developed 60 years ago. In 2007 the Chinese modernized their H-6 by changing the old engines in order to reach a greater range (3,500 km). They chose Russian engines, although some sources say that a new Chinese engine (WS-18) is being developed. Likewise, a general electronic and air-ground radar modernization was carried out. Their ability to search for targets is unknown. The bomb bay was downsized to put inside another fuel tank; it was modified as well to house the 2,200 km range CJ-10th cruise missiles. In this way the H-6K was created, much more modern than the previous version, which maintains the possibility of carrying nuclear weapons, as well as the anti-ship supersonic missiles YJ-12.

A squad of 15 of these planes (this is the number of aircrafts that Jane's Defense thinks are in service) can shoot around a hundred missiles, creating an important problem for a naval group with bad intentions. We must notice that in recent weeks the H-6K have been seen for the first time with bombs on the external supports of the wings.

In December 2016 Chinese Ministry of Defense sources confirmed the rumors about the development of a new long-range bomber. This new project is likely to be a stealth aircraft (very low detectability to radar), with a long range ("second line of islands" -from central Japan to east of Indonesia, crossing over the island of Guam, USA-), as well as being able to load large amount of conventional weaponry in an internal weapons bay. The bomber will improve the capacity of the Chinese air force to circumvent enemy radars.

At the moment its name is X, although Jane's Defense already calls it H-20. Apparently the bomber will not be able to carry nuclear weapons, since China has a nuclear policy of "not attacking first", which means that it will not be the one who initiates a conflict with nuclear weapons. For all these reasons, China has a nuclear arsenal that follows the idea that the country would survive a first attack and will be able to strike back.

The task of the new bomber will be to keep any American carrier force, with its very well defended battle group, out of China's areas of interest. These aircraft, armed with long-range air-surface missiles, will be one of the three legs of Chinese deterrence. The other two are the attack submarines and the ballistic missiles.

Probably its design, commissioned to Xian Aircraft Corporation, is similar to the American B-2 Stealth Bomber, following the Chinese tradition of practically copying western models (the J-20 fighter is similar to the American F-22). Its first flight could take place in 2025. A different question is when it will be operational; probably it is something very far in time, considering the delays for the first flight of the J-20 and its full operation. Hence the modernization of the H-6 commented at the beginning of the article.

The fighters are very complex weapons systems and it is not enough for them to fly. They must do so with the characteristics for which they were designed. In this case China historically has a great dependence on Russian engines. China's engines have not worked as expected. Not to mention the electronics, which it is a field the US still wins by far.

*Professor, School of Economics and Business, University of Navarra

▲Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force H6K in flight over the Pacific.

COMMENTARY / Ignacio Cristóbal Urbicain* [English version].

Only three countries in the world have strategic or long-range bombers (USA, Russia and China). The mission statement of this subject of weapon is to project force over very long distances, normally within enemy airspace, in order to destroy, with its important armament load, strategic targets, i.e. industry, infrastructure, logistics, etc. It is also an important deterrent weapon.

In the case of China, its strategic aviation has mainly the latter mission statement regarding the defense of its interests by projecting a threat at very far distances, i.e. to prevent the approach and entrance of US Navy battle groups (aircraft carriers and attack cruisers) to the South China Sea.

For this task, China has the Xian H-6. This aircraft is a derivation of the Russian Tupolev Tu-16 developed 60 years ago. In 2007, the Chinese upgraded their H-6 by replacing the old engines to achieve a longer range (3,500 km). Again Russian engines were chosen, although there are sources that have said that a new Chinese engine (WS-18) is being developed. A general electronic and air-to-surface radar modernization was also carried out. Its targeting capability is unknown. The bomb bay was reduced to accommodate another interior fuel tank and modified to accommodate the 2,200 km range CJ-10th Wayside Cross CJ-10th missiles. This created the H-6K, considerably more modern than the previous version, which retains the ability to carry nuclear armament, as well as the YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship missiles.

A squadron of 15 of these aircraft (this is the issue Jane's Defence thinks are in service) can fire around a hundred missiles, creating a major problem for a naval group with bad intentions. Note also that in recent weeks the H-6Ks have been seen for the first time with bombs on their external wing mounts.

The future

In December 2016, Chinese Defense Ministry sources confirmed rumors about the development of a new long-range bomber. This new project is likely to be stealthy (very leave detectability to radar), long-range ("second line of islands" - from central Japan to eastern Indonesia, crossing the island of Guam, USA) , as well as able to carry a large amount of conventional armament in an internal hold, which will improve stealthiness against enemy radars.    

The designation is currently X, although Jane's Defense is already calling it H-20. Apparently the bomber will not be capable of carrying nuclear weapons, as China has a "no first strike" nuclear policy, which means that it will not be the one to initiate a conflict with nuclear weapons. For all that, it has a nuclear arsenal tied to the idea that the country would survive a first strike and be able to refund the blow.

The role of this new bomber will be to prevent a U.S. carrier force with its battle group from getting any closer than it should to its areas of interest. These aircraft carrying long-range air-to-surface missiles against such well-defended naval groupings will be one of the three legs of the Chinese deterrent. The other two are attack submarines and ballistic missiles.

Its design, commissioned to Xian Aircraft Corporation, will probably be similar to the American B-2 bomber, following the Chinese tradition of practically copying Western models (the J-20 fighter is similar to the American F-22) and its first flight could be in 2025. Another question is when it will be operational, but considering the cost of the first flight of the J-20 and its operability, it seems a long way off. Hence the modernization of the H-6 mentioned at the beginning of the article.

Combat aircraft are very complex weapon systems and it is not enough for them to fly. They must do so with the characteristics for which they are designed. In this case China has historically been very dependent on Russian engines. Theirs have not performed as expected. Not to mention electronics, in this field the US still beats them by a long way.

*Professor, School of Economics and Business Administration, Universidad de Navarra

This crucial shipping lane faces hard power pressures from both states as they yearn for naval control of contested waters

A thermometer to measure the future balance of power between China and India will be the Strait of Malacca, the key bottleneck that connects the northern Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific region. India is advancing positions towards the western mouth of the Strait in order to challenge the expansion of Chinese maritime interests, which pay greater attention to Malacca.

▲Map of the Indo-Pacific region [US DoD].   

ARTICLE / Alejandro Puigrefagut [English version] [Spanish version].

Maritime routes are the basis of trade and communication between more than 80% of the countries of the world. This fact makes the natural geographic location of the States a great strategic feature. An especially important point for maritime traffic is the Strait of Malacca, key for trade in the region with the largest population on the planet.

The Strait of Malacca, which connects the South China Sea with the Burma Sea on its way to the Bay of Bengal, is the busiest commercial crossing in the world and, therefore, is a strategic place. Through this corridor that surrounds the western coast of the Malay peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, approximately 60% of the world's maritime trade transits, exceeding one hundred and fifty ships per day and is the main source of oil supply for two of the main Asian consumers; the People's Republic of China and Japan. This geographical point is key for the entire Indo Pacific region, thus ensuring the free movement of ships becomes strategic. That is why many States in the region, including China and the United States, see the need for protection of this passage in order to be able to supply themselves, export their merchandise and not be blocked by the control of a third country over this area.

In relation to China it is not easy to think that a blockade of its supply due to problems in the Strait of Malacca will happen. In order for this to happen, an armed conflict of great dimensions would have to be generated, propitiating this blockade by a subject that could control - and potentially interrupt - the passage towards the other countries of the region. This potential risk, which today can only be generated by the United States Navy, forces China to be alert and have to develop sufficient military capabilities to protect what it considers its territories in the South China Sea and, by extension, the supply of vital resources that must necessarily cross the Strait of Malacca.

The positions and presence of the Asian giant in the South China Sea and in the areas adjacent to the Strait of Malacca have increased during the last years, in order to increase its influence on the States of the region. Moreover, to defend its oil and natural gas supplies (from the Persian Gulf), China has extended its presence to the Indian Ocean, although this is not enough. The reality is that in this area there is a great competition between two of the Asian powers with more influence in the region: China and India. Due to the increasing presence and influence of the People's Republic in the Indian Ocean, India has been forced to take proactive measures to improve peace and stability in the region, mobilizing and expanding its presence from its east coast towards the Strait, in order to rebalance the regional power. With this, India can dominate the western access to the Strait and, therefore, have a longer reaction time to maneuver in the Indian Ocean as in the Strait itself and, even, access to the waters of the South China Sea more agilely.

At the same time, this growing approximation of India to the South China Sea, is observed with concern in Beijing, and even, some analysts see India as a threat if an hypothetical case of a war between the two regional powers could occur and India were to block the Strait and, therefore, China's access to certain raw materials and other resources. For this reason, China has carried out various military maneuvers in the past three years together with third States in the Strait of Malacca, especially with Malaysia. During the first exercises in the area, the Ministry of Defence of the People's Republic of China concluded that bilateral relations with Malaysia were strengthened in terms of cooperation in security and defense and that "increase the capacity to jointly respond to real security threats and safeguard regional maritime security." In addition, for China, the protection of the Strait is a priority because of its great strategic value and because countries like the US or Japan also want to control it.

The busy passage, decisive in the strategies of the two countries to counteract each other

The Strait of Malacca, a core topic for the connection between the northern part of the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific region, will be a thermometer for measuring the future balance of power between China and India. India is responding to the further expansion of Chinese maritime interests, which are forcing Beijing to pay close attention to Malacca, by advancing its positions towards the western mouth of the strait.

▲Map of the Indo-Pacific [US DoD].

article / Alejandro Puigrefagut [English version].

Maritime routes are the basis for trade and communication between more than 80% of the world's countries. This fact makes the natural geographic location of states of great strategic importance. A particularly important point for maritime traffic is the Strait of Malacca, a core topic for trade in the most populated region of the world.

The Strait of Malacca, which links the South China Sea with the Burma Sea en route to the Bay of Bengal, is the busiest commercial passage in the world and is therefore a strategic location. Approximately 60% of the world's maritime trade passes through this corridor that surrounds the western coast of the Malaysian peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, with more than 150 ships per day, and it is the main oil supply route for two of Asia's main consumers: the People's Republic of China and Japan. This geographical point is a core topic for the entire Indo-Pacific region, so ensuring the free movement of ships is strategic. This is why many states in the region, including China and the United States, see the protection of this passage as necessary in order to be able to supply themselves, export their goods and not be blocked by the control of a third country over this area.

With regard to China, it is not easy to imagine that a blockade of its supplies due to problems in the Strait of Malacca would happen. For this to happen, an armed conflict of extraordinary dimensions would have to be generated, leading to such a blockade by a subject that could control -and potentially interrupt- the passage to the other countries in the region. This potential risk, which today can only be generated by the US Navy, forces China to be alert and to develop sufficient military capabilities to protect what it considers its territories in the South China Sea and, by extension, the supply of vital resources that must necessarily cross the Strait of Malacca.

The Asian giant's positions and presence in the South China Sea and in the areas around the Strait of Malacca have increased in recent years in order to increase its influence over the states in the region. Moreover, in order to defend its oil and natural gas supplies (from the Persian Gulf), China has extended its presence as far as the Indian Ocean, although this is not enough. The reality is that in this area there is a great skill between two of the most influential Asian powers in the region: China and India. Due to the growing presence and influence of the People's Republic in the Indian Ocean, India has been forced to take proactive steps to enhance peace and stability in the region by mobilizing and expanding its presence from its east coast to the vicinity of the Strait in order to rebalance the regional balance of power. In this way, India can dominate the western access to the Strait and, consequently, have greater reaction time to maneuver in the Indian Ocean as well as in the Strait itself and even gain more agile access to the waters of the South China Sea.

At the same time, India's growing closeness to the South China Sea is viewed with concern in Beijing, and some analysts even see India as a threat in the event of a hypothetical conflict between the two regional powers and India blocking the Strait and, therefore, China's access to certain raw materials and other resources. For this reason, over the past three years China has carried out various military maneuvers jointly with third states in the Strait of Malacca, especially with Malaysia. During the first exercises in the area, the Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of China concluded that bilateral relations with Malaysia in terms of security and defense cooperation were strengthened and that "joint response capability to security threats was enhanced". Moreover, for China the protection of the Strait is a priority because of its great strategic value and because countries such as the US and Japan also wish to control it.

[Admiral James Stavridis, Sea Power. The History and Geopolitics of the World's Oceans. Penguin Press. New York City, 2017. 363 pages]

REVIEW / Iñigo Bronte Barea [Spanish version].

In the era of globalization and its communication society, where everything is closer, and distances seem to vanish, the mass of water between the continents hasn't lost the strategic value it has always had. Historically, the seas have been as much a channel for human development as instruments of geopolitical dominance. It is no coincidence that the great world powers of the last 200 years have been great naval powers as well. We continue living the dispute over the maritime space at the present time and nothing suggests that the geopolitics of the seas will stop being crucial in the future.

Little have these principles changed on the importance of the maritime powers since they were expounded at the end of the 19th century by Alfred T. Mahan. Sea Power speaks of its validity today. The History and Geopolitics of the World's Oceans, by Admiral James G. Stavridis, retired in 2013 after having directed the U.S. Southern Command, the U.S. European Command and the supreme NATO leadership.

The book is the fruit of Mahan's early readings and a long career of almost four decades touring the seas and oceans with the US Navy. At the beginning of each explanation about the different marine spaces, Stavridis recounts his brief experience in that sea or ocean, to then continue with the history, and the development that they have had, until they reach their current context. Finally there is a projection about the near future that the world will have from the perspective of marine geopolitics.

Pacific: The emergence of China.

Admiral J. G. Stavridis begins his journey through the Pacific Ocean, which he categorizes as "the mother of all oceans" due to its immensity, since, by itself, it is larger than the entire combined planet's land surface. Another noteworthy point is that in its immensity there is no considerable land mass, although there are islands of all kinds, with very diverse cultures. That's why the sea dominates the geography of the Pacific as it does not anywhere else on the planet.

The great dominator of this marine space is Australia, which is very aware of what can happen politically in the archipelagos of nearby islands. However, it was the Europeans who explored the Pacific well (Magellan was the first, around 1500) and tried to connect it with their world in a way that was not merely transitory and commercial, but stable and lasting.

The United States began to be present in the Pacific since the acquisition of California (1840), but it was not until the annexation of Hawaii (1898) that the immense country was catapulted definitively towards the Pacific. The first time this ocean emerged as a zone of total war was in 1941 when Pearl Harbor was massacred by the Japanese. With the return of peace, the Japanese revival and the emergence of China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong made trans-Pacific trade surpass the Atlantic for the first time in the 1980s, and this trend continues. This is so, because the Pacific region contains the largest world powers on its coasts. In the geopolitical arena, a great arms race is taking place in the Pacific, with North Korea as a major source of tension and uncertainty worldwide.

Atlantic: from the Panama Canal to NATO

As for the Atlantic Ocean, Stavridis refers to it as the cradle of civilization, since the Mediterranean is included among its territories, and even more so if we consider it as the link between the people of all America and Africa with Europe. It has two great seas of great historical importance such as the Caribbean and the Mediterranean.

Undoubtedly the historical figure of this ocean is that of Christopher Columbus, since with his arrival in America (Bahamas 1492) began a new historical period that ended with virtually the entire American continent colonized by European powers in later centuries. While Portugal and Spain were concentrated in the Caribbean and South America, the British and the French did so in North America.

During the First World War, the Atlantic became an essential transit area for the development of the war, since, through it, the United States brought its troops, war materials and goods to Europe during the conflict. It was here that the idea of a community of the Atlantic countries that would eventually lead to the creation of NATO began to take shape.

Regarding the Caribbean, the author considers it as a region installed in the past. Its colonization was characterized by the arrival of slaves to exploit the natural resources of the region for purposes of economic interest for the Spanish. In addition, this process was characterized by the desire to convert the indigenous population to Christianity.

The Panama Canal is an engine for the economy of the region, but in Central America it is also possible to sail along the coasts of the countries with the highest rates of violence on the planet. Admiral Stavridis considers the Caribbean coast as a kind of Wild West that in some places has evolved little since the times of the pirates, and in which the drug cartels are currently operating with total impunity.

Since the 1820s, with the Monroe Doctrine, the United States carried out a series of interventions through its navy to reinforce regional stability and leave Europeans out of places such as Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Central America. In the 20th century, politics was dominated by caudillos, and communism and the Cold War soon reached the Caribbean, with Cuba as a zone zero.

Indian and Arctic: from the unknown to the risk

The Indian Ocean has less history and geopolitics than the other two great oceans. Despite this, its tributary seas have been gaining geopolitical importance in the post-World War II era with the increase in global navigation and the export of oil from the Gulf region. The Indian Ocean could be considered nowadays as a region to exercise smart power rather than hard power. While the slave trade and piracy has declined to almost disappear almost everywhere, they are still present in parts of the Indian Ocean. It's a region in which countries from the whole world could collaborate all together in order to fight against these common problems.

The history of Indian Ocean doesn't inspire confidence in the potential for peaceful governance in the years to come. An important key to unlock the potential of the region should be to solve the existing conflicts between India and Pakistan (threatening the use of nuclear weapons) and the Shia-Sunni division in the Arabian Gulf, which make the region very volatile. Due to the tensions of the Gulf countries, the region is today a kind of cold war between the Sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia, and the Shiites, led by Iran; the U.S., with its Fifth Fleet, is in the middle of these two sides.

Finally, the Arctic is currently a mystery. Stavridis considers that it is both a promise and a danger. Over the centuries, all oceans and seas have been the site of epic battles and discoveries, but there is one exception: the Arctic Ocean.

It seems clear that this exceptionality is coming to an end. The Arctic is an emerging maritime boundary with increasing human activity, rapidly melting ice blocks and important hydrocarbon resources that are beginning to be within reach. However, there are great risks that will dangerously condition the exploitation of this region, such as weather conditions, confused governance due to the confluence of five bordering countries (Russia, Norway, Canada, the United States and Denmark), and geopolitical competition between NATO and Russia, whose relations are deteriorating in recent years.

[Admiral James Stavridis, Sea Power. The History and Geopolitics of the World's Oceans. Penguin Press. New York City, 2017. 363 pages]

January 19, 2018

review / Iñigo Bronte Barea [English version] [English version].

In the era of globalization and its communication society, where everything is closer and distances seem to fade away, the body of water between continents has not lost the strategic value it has always had. Historically, the seas have been both a channel for human development and an instrument of geopolitical domination. It is no coincidence that the great world powers of the last 200 years have themselves been great naval powers. The dispute over maritime space is still going on today and there is nothing to suggest that the geopolitics of the seas will cease to be crucial in the future.

These principles on the importance of maritime powers have changed little since they were set out at the end of the 19th century by Alfred T. Mahan. Their relevance is reflected today in Sea Power. The History and Geopolitics of the World's Oceans, by Admiral James G. Stavridis, who retired in 2013 after leading the U.S. Southern Command, the U.S. European Command and the supreme command of NATO.

The book is the result of Mahan's early reading and a long degree program of almost four decades of traveling the seas and oceans with the U.S. Navy. At the beginning of each explanation of the different marine spaces, Stavridis relates his brief experience in that sea or ocean, and then continues with the history and the development they have undergone, until reaching their current context. Finally, there is a projection of the near future of the world from the perspective of marine geopolitics.

Pacific: the emergence of China

Admiral J. G. Stavridis begins his journey through the Pacific Ocean, which he categorizes as "the mother of all oceans" due to its immensity, since it alone is larger than the entire land surface of the planet combined. Another remarkable point is that in its immensity there is no considerable land mass, although there are islands of every subject, with very diverse cultures. That is why the sea dominates the geography of the Pacific as it does nowhere else on the planet.

The great dominator of this marine space is Australia, which is very attentive to what might happen politically in the island archipelagos in its vicinity. However, it was the Europeans who explored the Pacific well (Magellan was the first, around 1500) and tried to connect it with their world in a way that was not merely transitory and commercial, but stable and lasting.

The United States began to be present in the Pacific from the acquisition of California (1840), but it was not until the annexation of Hawaii (1898) that the immense country was definitively catapulted into the Pacific. The first time this ocean emerged as a total war zone was in 1941 when Pearl Harbor was massacred by the Japanese.

With the return of peace, the Japanese revival and the emergence of China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong caused trans-Pacific trade to overtake the Atlantic for the first time in the 1980s, and this trend is still continuing. This is because the Pacific region contains the world's major powers on its shores.

In the geopolitical area , a major weapons degree program is underway in the Pacific, with North Korea as a major focus of tension and uncertainty worldwide.

Atlantic: from the Panama Canal to NATO

As for the Atlantic Ocean, Stavridis refers to it as the cradle of civilization, since the Mediterranean is included among its territories, and even more so if we consider it as the nexus between the peoples of all America and Africa with Europe. It has two great seas of great historical importance, the Caribbean and the Mediterranean.

Undoubtedly, the historical figure of this ocean is Christopher Columbus, since his arrival in America (Bahamas 1492) initiated a new historical period that ended with practically the entire American continent being colonized by the European powers in the following centuries. While Portugal and Spain concentrated on the Caribbean and South America, the British and the French did so in North America.

During the First World War, the Atlantic became an essential transit zone for the development the war, since the United States took its troops, war materials and goods to Europe through it during the conflict. It was here that the idea of a community of Atlantic countries began to take shape, which would eventually lead to the creation of NATO.

As for the Caribbean, the author considers it as a region settled in the past. Its colonization was characterized by the arrival of slaves to exploit the region's natural resources for purposes of economic interest to the Spaniards. In turn, this process was characterized by the desire to convert the indigenous population to Christianity.

The Panama Canal is a driving force for the region's Economics , but Central America is also sailing along the coasts of the countries with the highest fees of violence on the planet. Admiral Stavridis sees the Caribbean coast as a kind of Wild West, which in some places has evolved little since the days of the pirates, and where drug cartels now operate with impunity.

Since the 1820s, with the Monroe Doctrine, the United States carried out a series of interventions through its navy to reinforce regional stability and keep Europeans out of places such as Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Central America. In the 20th century, politics was dominated by caudillos, and soon communism and the Cold War came with them to the Caribbean, with Cuba as ground zero.

Indian Ocean and Arctic: from unknown to risky

The Indian Ocean has less history and geopolitics than the other two major oceans. Despite this, its tributary seas have gained geopolitical importance in the post-World War II era with the rise of global shipping and the export of oil from the Gulf region. The Indian could be seen today as a region for wielding smart power rather than hard power. While the slave trade and piracy have dwindled almost to extinction almost everywhere, they are still present in parts of the Indian Ocean. It is a region where countries around the world could collaborate together to fight these common problems.

The history of the Indian Ocean does not inspire confidence about the potential for peaceful governance in the years to come. An important core topic to unlock the region's potential would be to resolve the existing conflicts between India and Pakistan (a conflict with the risk of using nuclear weapons) and the Shiite-Sunni divide in the Persian Gulf, issues that make it a very volatile region. Due to the tensions in the Gulf countries, the region is today a kind of cold war between the Sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia, and the Shiites, led by Iran, and between these two sides, the United States, with its Fifth Fleet, is at the center.

Finally, the Arctic is currently an unknown quantity. Stavridis sees it as both a promise and a danger. Over the centuries, all oceans and seas have been the site of epic battles and discoveries, but there is one exception: the Arctic Ocean.

It seems clear that that exceptionality is coming to an end. The Arctic is an emerging maritime frontier with increasing human activity, rapidly melting blocks of ice and major hydrocarbon resources coming within reach. However, there are major risks that will dangerously condition the exploitation of this region, such as weather conditions, unclear governance due to the confluence of five bordering countries (Russia, Norway, Canada, the United States and Denmark), and geopolitical competition between NATO and Russia, whose relations have been deteriorating in recent years. 

The neighbors of the United States in the Western Hemisphere find it difficult to interpret the first year of the new administration

Donald Trump reaches his first anniversary as president of the United States having caused some recent fires in Latin America. His rude disregard for El Salvador and Haiti, due to the high figures of refugees sheltered in the U.S., and his harsh treatment of Colombia, for the increase in cocaine production, had damaged relations. Although they were already complicated in the case of Mexico, throughout the year they had some good times, such as the presidents' dinner that Trump summoned in September in New York in which a united action was drawn on Venezuela.

▲Trump in his first 100 days as president [White House].

ARTICLE / Garhem O. Padilla [English version] [Spanish version].

One year after the inauguration of the 45th President of the United States of America, Donald John Trump (the ceremony was on January 20), the controversy dominates the balance of the new administration, both in his domestic as well as international performance. The continental neighbors of the United States, in particular, show bewilderment about Trump's policies towards the hemisphere. On the one hand, they regret the American disinterest in commitments of economic development and multilateral integration; on the other hand, they note some activity in relation to some regional problems, such as the Venezuelan one. The actual balance is mixed, although there is unanimity that the language and many of Trump's forms threaten relationships.

From the TPP to NAFTA

In the economic field, the Trump era started with the definitive withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), on January 23, 2017. This made it impossible to enter into force since the United States is the market through which above all, this agreement emerged. The U.S. withdrawal affected the perspectives of the Latin American countries participating in the initiative.

Then, the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), demanded by Trump, was opened. The doubts about the future of the NAFTA, signed in 1994 and that Trump has described as "disaster", have stood out in what is going of the administration. Some of its demands, which Mexico and Canada oppose, are to increase the share of products manufactured in the United States, and the "sunset" clause, which would force the treaty to be reviewed methodically every five years and suspend it if any of its three members did not agree. All this, arises from the idea of the U.S. president to suspend the treaty if it is not favorable for his country.

Cuba and Venezuela

If the quarrels with Mexico have not yet reached to an end, in the case of Cuba, Trump has already retaliated against the Castro regime, with the expulsion in October of 15 Cuban diplomats from the Cuban Embassy in Washington in response to"the sonic attacks" that affected 24 U.S. diplomats on the island. The White House, in addition, has revoked some conciliatory measures of the Obama administration because the Castro regime is not responding with open-ended concessions.

As far as Venezuela is concerned, Trump has made strong efforts in terms of introducing measures and sanctions against corrupt officials, in addition to addressing the political situation with other countries, so that they support those efforts aimed at eradicating the Venezuelan crisis, thus generating multilateralism between American countries. However, this policy has detractors, who believe that the sanctions are not intended to achieve a long-term objective, and it is not clear how they would promote Venezuelan stability.

Although in those actions on Cuba and Venezuela Trump has alluded to the democratic principles violated by the governors of Havana and Caracas, his administration has not insisted especially on the commitment to human rights, democracy and moral values, as being usual in the argumentation of the U.S. foreign policy. Some critics point out that the Trump administration is willing to promote human rights only when they meet its political objectives.

This could explain the worsening of the opinion that exists in Latin America about the United States and about the relations with that country. According to the Latinobarómetro survey 2017, the favorable opinion has fallen to 67%, seven points below that at the end of the Obama administration, which was 74%. This survey shows a significant difference for Mexico, one of the countries that, without a doubt, has the worst levels of favorable opinion towards the Trump administration: in 2017 it was 48%, which means a fall of 29 points in comparison with 2016, in which it was 77%.

Immigration, withdrawal, decline

The restrictive immigration policies applied would also explain that rejection of the Trump administration by Latin American public opinion. In the immigration section the most recent is the decision not to renew the authorization to stay in the United States of thousands of Salvadorans and Haitians, who once entered the U.S. fleeing calamities in their countries.

We must also allude to Trump's efforts to achieve one of its main objectives since the beginning of his political campaign: to build a border wall with Mexico. The U.S. president has not had much success at this time, since although he has looked for ways to finance it, what he has managed to introduce in the budgets is very insignificant in relation to the estimated costs.

Trump's protectionism entails a withdrawal that may be accentuating the decline of the U.S. leadership in Latin America, especially against other powers. China has been increasing its economic and political performance in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru and Venezuela. Russia, for its part, has strengthened diplomatic and security relations with Cuba. It could be said that, taking advantage of the conflicts between Cuba and the United States, Moscow has tried to keep the island in its orbit through a series of investments.

Threats to security

This leads us to mention the new National Security Strategy of the United States, announced in December. The document presented by Trump addresses the rivalry with China and Russia, and also refers to the challenge posed by the regimes of Cuba and Venezuela, by the supposed threats to security they represent and the support of Russia they receive. Trump expressed great desire to see Cuba and Venezuela join "shared freedom and prosperity" and called for "isolating governments that refuse to act as responsible partners in advancing hemispheric peace and prosperity."

Similarly, the new U.S. Security Strategy refers to other challenges in the region, such as transnational criminal organizations, which impede the stability of Central American countries, especially Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. All in all, the document only dedicates one page to Latin America, in line with Washington's traditional attention given to the areas of the world that most affect their interests and security.

An opportunity for the United States to approach the Latin American countries will be the Summit of the Americas, which will be held next March in Lima. However, nothing is predictable given the characteristic attitude of the president, which leaves a large open space for possible surprises.

Continental U.S. neighbors are having a hard time interpreting the first year of the new Administration.

Donald Trump arrives at his first anniversary as president having sparked some recent fires in Latin America. His rude disregard for El Salvador and Haiti, for the Issue of refugees welcomed in the United States, and his intemperate attention to Colombia for the increase in cocaine production worsen relations that, although already complicated in the case of Mexico, have had some good moments throughout the year, such as the dinner of presidents that Trump convened in September in New York in which a united action on Venezuela was outlined.

▲Trump, on completing 100 days as president [White House].

article / Garhem O. Padilla [English version].

One year after the arrival of the 45th President of the United States of America, Donald John Trump, to the White House -the inauguration ceremony was on January 20-, controversy dominates the balance of the new Administration, both in its domestic and international performance. The continental neighbors of the U.S., in particular, show bewilderment over Trump's policies toward the hemisphere. On the one hand, they regret the U.S. disinterest in commitments to economicdevelopment and multilateral integration; on the other, they note some activity in relation to some regional problems, such as Venezuela. The balance for the moment is mixed, although there is unanimous agreement that Trump's language and many of his manners rather threaten relations.

From TPP to NAFTA

In the economic field, the Trump era began with the final withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) on January 23, 2017. This made it impossible for the TPP to entrance into force, as the United States was the market for which the agreement emerged, which has affected the prospects of the Latin American countries that participated in the initiative.

The renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), demanded by Trump, was immediately opened. Doubts about the future of NAFTA, signed in 1994 and which Trump has described as a "disaster", have been prominent so far in his administration. Some of his demands, which Mexico and Canada oppose, are to increase the quota for products manufactured in the United States and the "sunset" clause, which would oblige the treaty to be reviewed methodically every five years and would cause it to be suspended if any of its three members were not in agreement. All of this stems from the U.S. president's idea of fail the treaty if it is not favorable to his country. 

Cuba and Venezuela

If the quarrels with Mexico have not yet reached a conclusion, in the case of Cuba Trump has already retaliated against the Castro regime, with the expulsion in October of 15 Cuban diplomats from the Cuban embassy in Washington as a response to the "sonic attacks" that affected 24 U.S. diplomats on the island. The White House has also reversed some of the Obama Administration's conciliatory measures, when it realized that Castroism is not responding with open-minded concessions.

As far as Venezuela is concerned, Trump has made forceful efforts to introduce measures and sanctions against corrupt officials, in addition to addressing the political status with other countries, so that they support those efforts aimed at eradicating the Venezuelan crisis, thus generating multilateralism among American countries. However, this policy has its detractors, who believe that the sanctions are not intended to achieve a long-term goal , and it is unclear how they would promote Venezuelan stability.

Although in these actions on Cuba and Venezuela Trump has alluded to the democratic principles violated by the rulers of Havana and Caracas, his Administration has not particularly insisted on the commitment to human rights, democracy and moral values, as had been usual in the argumentation of U.S. foreign policy. Some critics point out that the Trump Administration is willing to promote human rights only when they fit its political objectives.  

This could explain the worsening opinion in Latin America about the United States and relations with that country. agreement to theLatinobarómetro 2017 survey , the favorable opinion has fallen to 67%, seven points below the 74% at the end of the Obama Administration. This survey sample a relevant difference for Mexico, one of the countries that, without a doubt, has the worst levels of favorable opinion towards the Trump Administration: in 2017 it was 48%, a drop of 29 points compared to 2016, when it was 77%.

Immigration, withdrawal, decline

The restrictive immigration policies applied would also explain the rejection of the Trump Administration by Latin American public opinion. In the immigration section , the most recent is the decision not to renew the authorization to stay in the United States of thousands of Salvadorans and Haitians, who once arrived fleeing calamities in their countries.

It is also worth mentioning Trump's efforts to achieve one of his main objectives since the beginning of his political campaign: to build a border wall with Mexico. The U.S. president has not been very successful so far in this goal, since despite having sought ways to finance it, what he has managed to introduce in the budgets is very insignificant in relation to the estimated costs. On the other hand, his decision

Trump's protectionism entails a retreat that may be accentuating the decline of the United States as a leader in Latin America, especially vis-à-vis other powers. China has been increasing its economic and political engagement in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru and Venezuela. Russia, for its part, has strengthened its diplomatic and security relations with Cuba. It could be said that, taking advantage of the conflicts between the island and the United States, Moscow has sought to keep it in its orbit through a series of investments.

Security threats

This brings us to the new US National Security Strategy, announced in December. The document, presented by Trump, addresses the rivalry with China and Russia, and also refers to the challenge posed by the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes, because of the alleged security threats they pose and the Russian support they receive. Trump expressed his strong desire to see Cuba and Venezuela join in "shared freedom and prosperity" and called for "isolating governments that refuse to act as responsible partners in advancing hemispheric peace and prosperity.

Similarly, the new U.S. Security Strategy alludes to other challenges in the region, such as transnational criminal organizations, which impede the stability of Central American countries, especially Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. However, the document devotes only one page to Latin America, in line with Washington's traditional focus on the areas of the world that most affect its interests and security.

An opportunity for the United States to get closer to Latin American countries will be the Summit of the Americas, to be held next March in Lima. However, nothing is predictable given the President's characteristic attitude, which leaves a great deal of room for possible surprises.

[Graham Allison, Destined for War. Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Boston, 2017. 364 pages]

REVIEW / Emili J. Blasco [English version].

This is what has been called the Thucydides Trap: the dilemma facing a hegemonic power and a rising one that threatens that hegemony. Is war inevitable? When Thucydides recounted the Peloponnesian War, he wrote about the inevitability for the dominant Sparta and the emerging Athens to think of armed confrontation as a means of settling the conflict.

The fact that these two Greek polis necessarily thought about war -and finally they waged it-, does not mean that they did not have other options. History has shown that there are other alternatives: when Wilhemine Germany threatened to overcome Britain's naval force, the attempt of sorpasso (accompanied by several circumstances) led to the First World War, but when Portugal was overtaken by Spain in overseas possessions in the sixteenth century, or when the United States replaced Britain as the world's leading power in the late nineteenth century the power transfer was peaceful.

Destined for War. Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?, by Graham Allison, is a call to Washington and Beijing to do everything possible to avoid falling into the trap described by the Greek historian. In this book the founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government reviews several historical precedents. Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, of which Allison is director, has researched on them in a program called precisely Thucydides's Trap.

This concept is defined by Allison as "the severe structural stress caused when a rising power threatens to upend a ruling one. In such condition, not just extraordinary, unexpected events, but even ordinary flashpoints of foreign affairs, can trigger large-scale conflict".

The structural stress is produced by the clash of two deep sensibilities: the rising power syndrome ("a rising state's enhanced sense of itself, its interests, and its entitlement to recognition and respect"), and its mirror image, the ruling power syndrome ("the established power exhibiting an enlarged sense of fear and insecurity as it faces intimations of decline").

Along with those syndroms the two rival powers also experience a 'secutity dilemma': "A rising power may discount a ruling state's fear and insecurity because it 'knows' itself to be well-meaning. Meanwhile, its opponent misunderstands even positive initiatives as overly demanding, or even threatening."

The use of military force

Allison starts from the fact that China is already putting itself on par with the United States as a world power. It has done so in terms of the volume of its economy (China has already overtaken the U.S. in Purchasing Power Parity) and with regard to some aspects of military force (a report by Rand Corporation predicted that in 2017 China would have an "advantage" or "approximate parity" in 6 of the 9 areas of conventional capability). The author's assumption is that China will soon be able to wrest from the United States the scepter of main superpower. In this situation, how will both countries react?

In the case of China, its thousand-year perspective will probably lead to an attitude of patience, provided there is at least some small progress in its purpose of increasing its global weight. Since 1949 China has only resorted to force in three of 33 territorial disputes. In those cases, the Chinese leaders waged the war -they were limited wars, conceived as a warning to their opponents- even though the enemy was equal or greater, urged by a situation of domestic unrest.

For Allison, "As long as developments in the South China Sea are generally moving in China's favor, it appears unlikely to use military force. But if trends in the correlation of forces should shift against it, particularly at a moment of domestic political instability, China would initiate a limited military conflict, even against a larger, more powerful state like the US."

For its part, the United States can choose several strategies, according to Allison: accommodate to the new reality, undermine Chinese power (commercial war, fostering separatism of the provinces), negotiate a long peace, and redefine the relationship. The author does not give firm advice, but seems to suggest that Washington should move between the last two options.

He recalls how Britain understood that it could not compete with the United States in the Western Hemisphere, and how from there a collaboration between the two countries grew, as manifested in the First and Second World War. This should happen by accepting that the South China Sea is an area of Chinese influence. The United States should admit this, not out of mere condescension, but because it proceeds to a real clarification of its vital interests.

Despite its positive tone, Destined for War is one of the essays by the American establishment where the end of the American era and the passing of the baton to China are most openly announced (it does not seem to glimpse a multipolar or bipolar world, but rather a primacy of the Asian country). It is also one of those assays that puts less accent -clearly less than it should- on the remaining strengths of the U.S. and the problems that can undermine the coronation of China.

[Graham Allison, Destined for War. Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Boston, 2017. 364 pages]

review / Emili J. Blasco [English version].

It is what has been called the Thucydides trap: the dilemma faced by a hegemonic power and a rising power that threatens that hegemony. Is war inevitable? When Thucydides narrated the Peloponnesian War, he wrote of the inevitability for dominant Sparta and rising Athens to think of armed confrontation as a means of settling the conflict.

That these two Greek polis necessarily thought of war, and eventually came to it, does not mean that they had no other options. History has shown that there are: when Wilhelmine Germany threatened to overtake Britain's naval strength, the attempted sorpasso (accompanied by various circumstances) led to World War I, but when Portugal was overtaken by Spain in overseas possessions in the 16th century, or when the United States replaced Britain as the world's leading power in the late 19th century, the handover was peaceful.

The call for Washington and Beijing to do all they can to avoid falling into the trap described by the Greek historian is made by Graham Allison in Destined for War. Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? The founding Dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government reviews in his book several historical precedents. The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of the same University, of which Allison is director, has researched these precedents in a program called Thucydides's Trap.

This concept is defined by Allison as "the strong structural stress caused when an emerging power threatens to unseat a reigning power. In such a status, not only extraordinary or unexpected events, but even ordinary hotspots of tension in international affairs can trigger large-scale conflicts".

This structural stress is produced by the clash of two profound sensitivities: the emerging power syndrome ("the reinforced sense that an emerging state has of itself, its interests and its right to recognition and respect"), and its inverse image, the reigning power syndrome ("the established power exhibits a heightened sense of fear and insecurity as it faces signs of decline").

Alongside the syndromes both rival powers also experience a security dilemma: "a rising power may disregard the fear and insecurity of a leading state because it knows that it itself is well-intentioned. Meanwhile, its opponent misinterprets even positive initiatives, taking them as excessively demanding or even threatening".

The use of military force

Allison starts from the fact that China is already catching up with the US as a power. It has done so in terms of its Economics Issue (China has already surpassed the U.S. in Purchasing Power Parity) and in relation to some aspects of military strength (a Rand Corporation report predicted that in 2017 China would have "advantage" or "rough parity" in 6 of 9 areas of conventional capability. The author's assumption is that China will soon be in a position to wrest the scepter of major superpower from the United States. Faced with this status, how will both countries react?

In the case of China, its millennial perspective will probably lead it to an attitude of patience, provided that there is some small progress in its purpose to increase its specific world weight. Since 1949, China has resorted to force in only three out of 33 territorial disputes. In those cases, China's leaders waged war - limited wars, conceived as notice to their opponents - despite the fact that the enemy was equal or greater, urged on by a domestic unrest status .

For Allison, "as long as events in the South China Sea generally move in China's favor, it seems unlikely that China will use military force. But if trends in the correlation of power were to turn against it, particularly at a time of domestic political instability, China would initiate a limited military conflict against an even larger and more powerful state such as the United States.

For its part, the United States can opt for several strategies, according to Allison: adapt to the new reality, undermine Chinese power (trade war, encourage provincial separatism), negotiate a lasting peace and redefine the relationship. The author does not give a firm committee , but seems to suggest that Washington should move between the last two options.

He recalls how Great Britain realized that it could not compete with the United States in the Western Hemisphere, and how this led to a partnership between the two countries, which became evident in the First and Second World Wars. This would have to involve accepting that the South China Sea is an area of Chinese influence. And this is not out of mere condescension, but because the United States is proceeding with a real clarification of its vital interests.

Despite its positive tone, Destined for War is one of the essays of the American establishment that most openly announces the end of the American era and the passing of the baton to China (it does not seem to envision a multipolar or bipolar world, but rather the primacy of the Asian power). It is also one of those that places less emphasis - certainly less than it should - on the strengths of the United States and the problems that could undermine China's coronation.