Poland-Germany struggle to gain influence in the European region between the Baltic, the Adriatic and the Black Sea

The latest summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TMI) was attended by the President of the European Commission, which sample a hitherto incomplete endorsement from Brussels. It was also attendance by German representatives, although Germany is not part of this club of twelve Central and Eastern European nations. Poland, backed by the United States, wishes to lead the effort underway to reduce the region's energy dependence on Russian gas; in reaction, Germany has announced a bid, for the moment timid, to import liquefied gas from the United States.  

article / Paula Ulibarrena

On September 17 and 18, 2018, the third summit of the Three Seas Initiative, aimed at the economic development of the European Union (EU) area between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas, was held in Bucharest. The meeting was attended by nine heads of state, two presidents of national parliaments, a prime minister and a foreign minister, along with several senior European officials, led by the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker, and a large German representation, as well as U.S. leaders.

The Three Seas Initiative (TMI, known in English as BABS-Initiative: Baltic, Adriatic, Black Sea) was launched in 2015 and consists of twelve countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

According to the Polish Institute of Foreign Affairs, the European Union's initial reticence about the MTI seems to have been overcome, as the summit was endorsed by the European Commission and the Commissioner for Regional Policy of the European Parliament. The role of the MTI in cohesion and in strengthening the EU is thus recognized.

The importance of energy supply

One of the main aspects that ITM deals with is energy. Its goal is to have an agile access to energy, but also to ensure the supply from different points, so as not to depend on a single provider, and also to try to play a diversification role in the supply to other European regions. At present, its efforts are mainly focused on the so-called BRUA project , which aims to open up the possibility of transporting gas from the Caspian Sea area to Romania's southern border, and from there to Romania's northwestern border with Hungary.

BRUA is an acronym for Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria, and aims to diversify the natural gas supply system in the region. "We are creating a distribution network ," said Miguel Arias Cañete, European Commissioner for Energy and Climate Change; "it is not just a classic large pipeline but small reverse-flow pipelines that allow gas to be sent south, east, west, so the region will have more sources of energy and cheaper energy."

The BRUA pipeline would be, to some extent, a substitute for the failed Nabucco project . This project consisted in the development of a natural gas transport capacity between existing interconnection points with the natural gas transport networks of Bulgaria (in Giurgiu) and Hungary (Csanadpalota), through the construction of a new gas pipeline with a total length of 550 km, on the route Giurgiu-Podisor-Corbu-Hurezani-Hateg-Recas-Horia, and three compressor stations located along its route (in Corbu, Hateg and Horia). It expected to reach a gas flow of 4.4 million cubic meters per year in the direction of Hungary, and 1.5 million cubic meters to Bulgaria.

The BRUA pipeline will only account for one third of the flow that Nabucco would have provided, thus minimizing the risk of market loss for Russia. The route, which crosses Romania from east to west and from north to south, is estimated to cost a total of 560 million euros. Romania anticipates that the Black Sea exploration activities of OMV Petrom ExxonMobil could lead to the finding new natural gas fields. To this end, it is envisaged to extend the BRUA gas pipeline for another 300 kilometers, from Giurgiu to the Black Sea perimeters.

Germany sent its foreign minister to the summit as an observer. Germany's interest is to strengthen its economic presence in the eastern region of the EU, in order to prevent the growing weight of China, secure its energy supply and play an important role in the gas distribution network within Europe, in a context of conflict over the supply of Russian gas, and the dependence that this entails for European countries. The construction of the second North European pipeline, known as project NS2 (Nord Stream 2), which will carry liquefied gas from Vyborg (western Russia) to Greifswald, on the Baltic coast of Germany, is currently being finalized. This project has always had the civil service examination the United States, which views with displeasure the EU's energy dependence on Russia, which is why the US is inclined to promote the ITM as an area for the development and entrance of energy sources that are not dependent on Russia.

Poland enters the game

Poland aligns itself with the US and tries to reduce the economic and energy dependence of Eastern European countries on Russia. But it is also trying to reduce Germany's weight in the region; this is reminiscent of the Intermarium promoted by Poland in the years between the two world wars. Poland's aim is to become a new gas distribution hub for the EU, where its ports would be used for the landing of liquefied natural gas of U.S. origin. These ports would be connected to the BRUA project , replacing Ukraine as a gas entrance to the EU and in turn substituting Russian gas for American gas (9).

It is precisely this ITM project , together with pressure from the U.S. president, that has provoked a reaction from Berlin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel counterattacked in October with the advertisement that Germany is once again opening the door to US gas by deciding to co-finance the construction of a 500 million euro terminal for liquefied natural gas ships in the north of the country. Germany would thus strengthen its alliance with the United States, but could also reduce its dependence on nuclear energy and greenhouse gas emissions.

The TTI projects are financed by a financial fund provided by six of the member states (Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Latvia), but open to the participation of all the countries that make up the group. Its goal is to provide financial support for the development of trans-national infrastructures in which at least three ITM member states participate. The institutional contribution exceeds 5 billion euros, and aims to attract external investment, from private funds, to strengthen the fund itself. With a thirty-year perspective, the goal is to exceed 100 billion euros.