WP02/20 Datos de mortalidad diarios durante la crisis del COVID-19: una propuesta de mejora
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WPnull/20 WP02/20 data daily mortality rates during the COVID-19 crisis: a proposal for improvement
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Authors
Abstract
When an epidemiological crisis flares up, the excess mortality published daily by MoMo (CNE-high school de Salud Carlos III) is severely biased at leave. The reason is that the usual delay in reporting deaths is prolonged precisely at those times when such estimates are of greatest social and epidemiological relevance. We propose to adjust the daily (or "real-time") data by applying projections into the future of observed revisions of already published data . Such revisions add deaths that are reported late to already announced excess mortality. We apply this method to excess mortality published by MoMo between 15 April and 25 May 2020 during the COVID-19 crisis in Spain. Corrections based on polynomial models reduce the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the data "real-time" by 18-25%.
Classification JEL:C22, I12, J11, C51, C53
Keywords:epidemiological monitoring, coronavirus, "nowcasting", epidemic, epidemiology, mortality, SAS-CoV-2, communicable diseases
Number of Pages:15
Creation Date:2020-03-01
Number:null/20
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