Georgian aspirations for European Union and NATO integration meet Western fears of Russian overreaction

▲ View of Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, with the presidential palace in the background [Pixabay].

ANALYSIS / Irene Apesteguía

In Greek times, Jason and the Argonauts set out on a journey in search of the Golden Fleece, with a clear direction: the current lands of Georgia. Later, in Roman times, these lands were divided into two kingdoms: Colchis and Iberia. From being a Christian territory, Georgia was conquered by the Muslims and later subjected to the Mongols. At this time, in the 16th century, the population was reduced due to the continuous Persian and Ottoman invasions.

In 1783, the Georgian kingdom and the Russian empire agreed on the Treaty of Georgiyevsk, by which both territories pledged mutual military support. This agreement failed to prevent the Georgian capital from being sacked by the Persians, which was allowed by the Russian Tsar. And it was the Russian tsar, Tsar Paul I of Russia, who in 1800 signed the corresponding incorporation of Georgia into the Russian empire, taking advantage of the moment of Georgian weakness.

After the disappearance of the Federal Democratic Republic of Transcaucasia and thanks to the Russian collapse that began in 1917, the first modern state of Georgia was created: the Democratic Republic of Georgia, which between 1918 and 1921 fought with the support of Germany and British forces against the Russian empire. The resistance did not last and the occupation of the Russian Red Army led in 1921 to the incorporation of Georgian territory into the Union of Soviet Republics. In World War II, seven hundred thousand Georgian soldiers had to fight against their former German allies.

In those Stalinist times, Ossetia was divided in two, constituting the southern part as an autonomous region belonging to Georgia. Later, the process was repeated with Abkhazia, thus forming today's Georgia. Seventy years later, on April 9, 1991, the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic declared its independence under the name of Georgia.

Every time has its "fall of the Berlin Wall", and this one is characterized by the disintegration of the former Russia. The major armed conflict that would unfold in 2008 as a result of the frozen conflicts between Georgia and South Ossetia and Abkhazia since the beginning of the last century came as no surprise.

Since the disintegration of the USSR

After the disintegration of the USSR, the territorial configuration of the country led to tension with Russia. With independence there was civil unrest and a major political crisis, as the views of the population of the autonomous territories were not taken into account and the laws of the USSR were violated in this regard. As twin sisters, South Ossetia wished to join North Ossetia, i.e. a Russian part, with Abkhazia again following in their footsteps. Moscow recognized Georgia without modification of borders, perhaps for fear of a similar action to the Chechen case, but for two long decades it acted as the protective parent of the two autonomous regions.

With independence, Zviad Gamsakhurdia became the first president. After a coup d'état and a brief civil war, Eduard Shevardnadze, a Georgian politician who in Moscow had worked closely with Gorbachev in the articulation of perestroika, came to power. Under Shevardnadze's presidency, between 1995 and 2003, ethnic wars broke out in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Around ten thousand people lost their lives and thousands of families fled their homes.

In 2003, the Rose Revolution against misgovernment, poverty, corruption and electoral fraud facilitated the restoration of territorial integrity, the return of refugees and the acceptance of different ethnic groups. However, the democratic and economic reforms that were proposed remained a longed-for dream.

One of the leaders of the Rose Revolution, lawyer Mikhail Saakashvili, became president a year later, declaring Georgian territorial integrity and initiating a new policy: friendship with NATO and the European Union. This rapprochement with the West, and especially with the United States, put Moscow on notice .

Georgia's strategic importance is due to its geographical centrality in the Caucasus, as it is in the middle of the route of new oil and gas pipelines. European energy security underpinned the EU's interest in a Georgia that was not subservient to the Kremlin. Saakashvili made nods to the EU and also to NATO, increasing the issue of military troops and the expense in armaments, something that in 2008 did not hurt him at all.

Saakashvili was successful with his policies in Ayaria, but not in South Ossetia. The maintenance of tension in that area and various internal disputes generated great political instability that led to the president's Withdrawal .

When Saakashvili's term ended in 2013, he was succeeded as president by the commentator and politician Giorgi Margvelashvili, as head of the Georgian Dream list. Margvelashvili maintained the line of rapprochement with the West, as has been done since 2018 by the current president, Salome Zurabishvili, a French-born politician, also from Georgian Dream.

Fight for South Ossetia

The 2008 war was initiated by Georgia. Russia also contributed to the previous bad relations, embargoing imports of Georgian wine, repatriating undocumented Georgian immigrants and even banning flights between the two countries. In the conflict, which affected South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Saakashvili had a modernized and prepared army, and also the full support of Washington.

The battles began in the main city of South Ossetia, Tskhinval, the majority of whose population is ethnic Russian. Air and ground bombardments by the Georgian Army were followed by entrance on the territory of Russian tanks. Moscow gained control of the province and expelled the Georgian forces. After five days, the war ended with a death toll of between eight hundred and two thousand, depending on the different counts of each side, and multiple violations of the laws of war. In addition, numerous reports commissioned by the European Union showed that South Ossetian forces "deliberately and systematically destroyed ethnic Georgian villages". These reports also stated that it was Georgia that initiated the conflict, although the Russian side had engaged in multiple provocations and also overreacted.

After the cease-fire of August 12, diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia were suspended. Moscow withdrew its troops from part of the Georgian territory it had occupied, but remained in the separatist regions. Since then, Russia has recognized South Ossetia as an independent territory, as do some Russian allies such as Venezuela and Nicaragua. The Ossetians themselves do not acknowledge having cultural and historical ties with Georgia, but with North Ossetia, i.e. with Russia. For its part, Georgia insists that South Ossetia is within its borders, and the same government will take care of it as a matter of public order, thus solving a problem described as constitutional.

Given Georgia's rapprochement with the EU, the war conflict prompted European diplomacy to play an active role in the search for peace, with the deployment of two hundred observers on the border between South Ossetia and the rest of Georgia, replacing Russian peacekeepers. In reality, the EU could have tried earlier to react more forcefully to Russia's actions in South Ossetia, which some observers believe would have prevented what later happened in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. In any case, despite starting the conflict, this did not affect Tbilisi's relationship with Brussels, and in 2014 Georgia and the EU signed a agreement of association. Currently we can be sure that the West has forgiven Russia for its behavior in Georgia.

The war, although short, had a clear negative impact on the Economics of the Ossetian region, which in the midst of difficulties became dependent on Moscow. However, Russian financial aid does not reach the population due to the high level of corruption.

The war is over, but not the friction. In addition to a refugee problem, there is also a security problem, with murders of Georgians on the borders with South Ossetia. The issue is not closed, but although the risk is slight, everything remains in the hands of Russia, which in addition to controlling and influencing politics, directs tourism in the area.

This non-resolution of the conflict hinders the stabilization of democracy in Georgia and with it the possible entrance to the European institution, as ethnic minorities claim lack of respect and protection of their rights. Despite the fact that governance mechanisms remain weak in these conflicts, it is clear that the reforms acquired lately in the South Caucasus have led to promote inclusive dialogue with minorities and greater state responsibility for the issue. 

Last elections

November 2018 saw the last direct suffrage presidential elections in the country, as from 2024 it will no longer be citizens who vote for their president, but legislators and certain compromisers, due to a constitutional reform transforming the country into a parliamentary republic.

In 2018, the United National Movement's candidate Grigol Vashdze and Georgian Dream candidate Salome Zurabishvili faced each other in the second round. With 60% of the vote, the center-left candidate became the first woman to hold the Georgian presidency. She won with a European bet: "more Europe in Georgia and Georgia in the European Union". Her inauguration was greeted with protesters alleging election irregularities. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) endorsed the electoral process, although it pointed out the lack of objectivity of the public media during the campaign.

Some Georgian media consider that Georgian Dream enjoyed an "undue advantage" because of the intervention in the campaign of former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, now a wealthy financier, who publicly announced a program of financial aid for 600,000 Georgians. It became clear that Ivanishvili pulls the strings and levers of power in the country. That questioning of the cleanliness of the campaign led to Georgia's downgrade in democratic quality in the 2018 indices.

Public event presided over in January by Salome Zurabishvili at the Georgian presidential palace [Presidency of Georgia].

THE APPROACH TO THE WEST

Since the policies pursued by the Georgian presidency since Saakashvili came to power, Georgia has made a decisive entry into the Western world. Thanks to all the new measures that Tbilisi is implementing to conform to Western requirements and requests, Georgia has managed to profile itself as the ideal candidate for its entrance in the European Union. However, despite the Europeanist and Atlantist yearnings of the ruling Georgian Dream party and a large part of Georgian society, the country could end up surrendering to Russian pressure, as has happened with several former Soviet territories that had previously attempted a Western rapprochement, such as Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan.

Compliance with the European Union

Becoming the most favored country in the Caucasus to enter the European Union, with which it has a close and positive relationship, Georgia has signed several binding treaties with Brussels, following the aspiration of Georgian citizens for more democracy and human rights. In 2016, the agreement of association between the EU and Georgia came into force, something that allows for serious steps in political and economic integration, such as the creation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). This preferential trade regime makes the EU the country's main trade partner . The DCFTA financial aid encourages Georgia to reform its trade framework , following the principles of the World Trade Organization, while eliminating tariffs and facilitating broad and mutual access. This alignment with the EU's framework legal framework prepares the country for eventual accession.

As for agreement of association, it should be mentioned that Georgia is a member country of the association Eastern within the European Neighborhood Policy. Through this association, Brussels issues annual reports on the steps taken by a given state to reach closer alignment with the EU. The committee of association is the formal institution dedicated to monitoring these partnership relations; its meetings have highlighted the progress made and the growing closeness between Georgia and the EU.

In 2016 the committee of Permanent Representatives of the EU confirmed the agreement of the European Parliament on visa liberalization with Georgia. That agreement was based on visa-free travel for EU citizens crossing the country's borders, and for Georgian citizens traveling to the EU for stays of up to 90 days.

Georgia, however, has been disappointed in its expectations when the EU has expressed doubts about the advisability of its membership. Some member countries claimed the danger that Georgian criminal groups could pose, something that several pro-Russian parties in the country took advantage of to wage an energetic campaign against the EU and NATO. The campaign had its results and anti-Russian opinion declined, leading Moscow to further assertion with military maneuvers, although in the 2016 elections citizen support for Georgian Dream continued.

Although there is no prospect of forthcoming accession, the EU continues to offer hope, as in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's tour of the Caucasus last summer. On her visit to Georgia, Merkel compared the Georgian conflict to the Ukrainian conflict due to the presence of Russian troops in the country's separatist regions. She visited the town of Odzisi, located on the border with South Ossetia, and at a speech at the University of Tbilisi said that both that territory and Abkhazia are "occupied territories," which did not go down well with Moscow. Merkel pledged to do her best to keep this "injustice" on the international diary .

Georgian President Salome Zourachvili also believes that the UK 's exit from the European Union can be a great opportunity for Georgia. "It will force Europe to reform itself. And as I am an optimist I am sure it will open new doors for us," she has said.

Hope in the Atlantic Alliance

Russia's behavior in recent years, in addition to encouraging Georgia's rapprochement with the EU, has given a sense of urgency to its desire to join the Atlantic Alliance.

In 2016 there were several joint NATO-Georgia maneuvers in the Black Sea, where a coalition fleet made landfall. It was evidence of a growing mutual rapprochement that Georgia hoped would lead to its accession to the organization at the NATO summit in Warsaw later that year. But despite the great preparation the country received in terms of defense, security and intelligence, it was not invited to join the club: Russia was not to be inconvenienced.

NATO assured, however, that it would maintain its open-door policy towards the countries of the East and considered that Georgia remained an exemplary candidate . Pending future decisions, Tbilisi was left with strengthening military cooperation, offering as an incentive the "Black Sea format", a compromise solution involving NATO, Georgia and Ukraine and increasing NATO's influence in the Black Sea region.

Georgia, being the capital ally of NATO and the European Union in the Caucasus region, aspires to greater protection from Russia by the Atlantic Alliance. The European political center observes the efforts of the Georgian population to join the international organization and opts for a strategy of patience for the Caucasian zone, as in the years of the Cold War.

Approaching Russia's borders is problematic, and multiple criticisms have arisen towards NATO about the easy Georgian membership due to its geostrategic status . Russia has repeatedly expressed concern about such joint cooperation between the U.S., NATO and its neighbor Georgia.

President Zurabishvili's speech at the Holocaust remembrance events in Jerusalem in January [Presidency of Georgia].

A VIGILANT RUSSIA

The wounds of the 2008 South Ossetia war have not yet healed in Georgian society. Despite Georgia's political attempts at rapprochement with Western institutions, Russia remains suspiciously on guard, so that relations between the two countries continue to be conflictive. Thus, last summer saw the latest episode of tension, which led the Georgian president to describe Russia as an "enemy and occupier".

After some rapprochement in 2013 that saw an increase in food trade and Russian tourism coming to the country, Moscow has moved to a strategy of attempting rapprochement at the religious and political level. With that intention, a small group of Russian lawmakers traveled to the Georgian capital for the Orthodox Interparliamentary Assembly. This international organization, led by Greece and Russia, is the only one that brings together the legislative bodies of Orthodox countries. The meeting took place in the plenary hall of the Georgian Parliament, where the Russian deputy Sergei Gabrilov, took the seat of the Speaker of the House. Several politicians from the civil service examination did not take kindly to this and mobilized thousands of citizens, who staged serious public disorder in an attempted storming of the Parliament. The Russian delegation was forced to leave the country, but the attempt of Russian influence through religion was clear, when until then the Church had kept away from all political controversies.

The riots, in which numerous people were injured, prompted members of the government to cancel all their trips abroad and the president to interrupt her trip to Belarus, where she was going to attend to the opening of the European Games, a presence considered important in Western eyes. Demonstrators protested against the Georgian Dream headquarters, where they burned and stormed outbuildings. The ten days of riots were not only justified by the incident at the Assembly, but also as a reaction to the Russian occupation. In addition, the conflict between Georgian Dream and the opposing parties led by Saakashvili, currently in exile in Ukraine, may also have contributed.

The crisis ended with the departure of Prime Minister Mamuka and the appointment of Georgi Gaharia as his successor, despite the criticism he had received for his management of the unrest as Minister of the Interior.

The riots, although they may be well-intentioned, are against Georgia's interests, according to the country's president, because what the country needs is "tranquility and internal stability", both to progress internally and to gain sympathy among EU members, who do not want more tension in the region. Salome Zurabishvili warned of the risks of any internal destabilization that Russia could provoke.

On the occasion of the June protests, the Kremlin issued a decree banning the transport of nationals to Georgia by Russian airlines. It claimed to want to ensure "national security and protection of citizens", but it was clear that Moscow was reacting to an anti-Russian tinged revolt. The decision reduced the arrival of visitors from Russia, who had been accounting for one out of every four tourists, which according to the Government could mean a loss of one billion dollars and a 1% reduction in GDP.

The tension reached the television media in the Georgian capital. Days after the riots, the host of the "Post Scriptum" program on Rustavi 2 channel intervened in the broadcast speaking Russian and made several insults against President Vladimir Putin, which Russia called unacceptable and "Russophobic". The channel apologized, admitting that its ethical and editorial standards had been violated, while several Georgian politicians, including the president, condemned the episode and regretted that such events only increase tensions between the two nations.

The events of last summer show the Georgians' rejection of an enmity with Russia which, in addition to accentuating the tension with the great neighbor to the north, may affect Georgia's relationship with the EU and other Western international organizations, since they are not going to tread on quicksand, and even less so with the great Russia in front of them.

REFERENCES

Asmus, Ronald D. A Little War That Shook the World. London: Palgrave MacMillan, 2010.

Cornell S. E. & Starr, F. The Guns of August 2008. Russia's War in Georgia. London: M.E. Sharpe, 2009.

De la Parte, Francisco P. The returning empire. The Ukrainian War 2014-2017: Origin, development, international environment and consequences. Oviedo: Ediciones de la Universidad de Oviedo, 2017.

Golz, Thomas. Georgia Diary: A Chronicle of War and Political Chaos in The Post-Soviet Caucasus.New York: Taylor and Francis, 2006.