▲signature of agreement of peace in Cartagena, in September 2016, before the referendum that rejected it and led to some modifications of the text [Government of Chile].

ANALYSIS / Camila Oliveros

The agreement Peace Agreement signed on November 26, 2016 between the Colombian Government and the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) is one of the most decisive issues in the elections of this June 17, in its second round, and of the next presidential term.

After lengthy negotiations between the Government and the FARC in Havana, and the introduction of modifications to the initially agreed text, following the triumph of the "no" vote in the plebiscite called, the peace agreement was finally signed in November 2016. The long duration of the negotiations and the result of the plebiscite demonstrate that the peace agreement is something especially controversial in Colombia, where this 52-year conflict involved the death of 220,000 people and the forced displacement of almost 6 million, in addition to 25,000 disappeared and almost 30,000 kidnapped.

Clearly, all Colombians long for a lasting peace, but while some believe that what was drafted in Havana is the solution to achieve that peace, others consider that there are still several modifications that can be made to the text. The decision on this and on the speed of implementation of agreement is in the hands of the next president.

Degree of implementation

For now, after more than a year of the signature of theagreement Final for the Termination of the Conflict, it is possible to highlight both negative and positive elements in the implementation of what was agreed in Havana. According to the Observatory for Monitoring the Implementation of the agreement of Peace, at the beginning of 2018, before the country entered the long electoral process in which it finds itself, only 18.3% of the agreement had been fulfilled. This is a relatively leave figure, which in part may be due to insufficient economic and human resources to implement the agreements quickly and effectively, and not so much to a lack of commitment on the part of the Government.

However, compared to this low percentage of what has already been implemented, there are other figures that show that agreement is having some positive results. This is the case of the decrease in the homicide rate in Colombia. This became one of the lowest in thirty years, with 24 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. In addition, the issue of displaced persons was reduced by almost half, from 91,045 displaced persons in 2016 to 48,335 in 2017, according to the Victims Unit. The issue of displaced persons had already been decreasing significantly the previous years, even at a faster pace: in 2002 the figure had been 757,240 people; in the following 14 years there was a decrease of 47,598 people on average per year, including the 8 years of presidency of Álvaro Uribe, who has been the great opponent to the terms of the peace agreement .

Also, the issue of landmine casualties has been reduced: it went from 72 in 2016 to 58 in 2017, which has helped generate a climate of greater confidence in rural communities.

It is important to highlight that in the areas that had been most affected by the armed conflict, from agreement as established by the peace agreement , it has been possible to form new companies that benefit from the mechanisms foreseen for the "zones most affected by the armed conflict" or Zomac. However, these companies are facing a complicated environment, since although FARC has completed the various phases of its demobilization, such as the submission of weapons and the return of recruited minors, FARC dissidents and other groups dedicated to drug trafficking continue to operate in several areas.

Although there has been some progress, the implementation of most of agreement still lies ahead. How are the two presidential candidates, Iván Duque and Gustavo Petro, dealing with it?

Duque or Petro

Iván Duque is a lawyer and politician who has been senator of the Republic for the Centro Democrático, a party headed by former president Uribe, a great opponent of the peace agreement . This has led many to think that if Duque becomes president, he will leave the Havana agreement on paper, without implementing it during his four years in office. His government proposal is aimed at improving the Economics, reducing taxes for large companies, financing youth entrepreneurship and favoring investment. In addition, he promotes a major reform of the Colombian justice system.

Gustavo Petro is an economist and politician, but also demobilized from the M-19 guerrilla. He belongs to the center-left Progressive Movement political party. Petro proposes an economic model with socialist tones that focuses on "changing the extractivist model " and promoting agricultural policies. The central axes of his government proposal are in the public sphere, fully guaranteeing the rights to health, to the Education of "quality, pluralistic, universal and free".

Colombia has never elected a leftist candidate to be president of the Republic, perhaps because the left is identified with communism and that associates it with the FARC. In any case, Petro has not been against the Havana agreements, and that makes him attractive to many Colombians who wish to preserve what was agreed in 2016, in the hope of ending the armed conflict experienced by the country.

The truth is that it is difficult to legally reverse the peace agreement , since a constitutional reform established that the next three governments are obliged to comply with the agreement. If Duque wins, the peace agreement may be subject to further changes, but in no way Duque is synonymous with war and Petro with peace. 

As Duque has expressed, making certain modifications to the agreements is not the same as ending them. The candidate of the Democratic Center maintains that the agreement must have certain adjustments that allow reaching a "credible, sustainable and based on justice" peace. From agreement with his proposals, the main changes he would promote would be the following two:

Special Jurisdiction and political participation

The first has to do with the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), since Iván Duque in his government plan seeks to simplify the Colombian justice system, going from the current six courts to only one, with the purpose to achieve greater speed and efficiency in judicial processes. However, with this change power may be highly concentrated and centralized. A modification of the JEP foreseen in the peace agreement may cause some uncertainty among former guerrillas, with whom some leniency had been agreed.

On the other hand, the big change Duque could make has to do with political participation. He believes that former FARC members who have been responsible for crimes against humanity cannot go to congress without having served a sentence. Duque assures that he does not seek to do away with point 2 of the peace agreement , which talks about the political participation of former guerrillas in the congress. If a member of the congress is ratified for a conviction for a crime of this subject, he should leave his seat and be replaced by someone from the same group who does not have any crime against humanity.

Although in the event of winning the elections, Gustavo Petro will not propose special modifications to the agreements, whoever the next president is, he will face serious challenges in relation to the peace process.

Most important challenges in the next presidential mandate

The presence of FARC dissidents in border areas of the country is one of the challenges facing the next president; not only for security reasons, but also because of their links to drug production, which has increased by 52%. The government is aware that around 10% of the FARC's fighting force has remained in the armed struggle, amounting to at least 700 individuals, although other entities even double that figure. This dissidence operates in fifteen different groups, which have been concentrated in areas of the country such as Nariño, Norte de Santander and Cauca. In addition, another armed group, the ELN (National Liberation Army), has begun to increase its presence in certain border areas, such as Norte de Santander. This not only poses a threat to Colombian security but may also trigger a war between guerrilla and organized crime groups for control of the illegal coca production and drug trafficking business.

In view of the continued presence of armed groups in part of the Colombian territory, both candidates defend the increase of military troops in conflict zones. However, regarding the eradication of illegal crops, Iván Duque advocates the use of glyphosate, a strong herbicide whose employment is rejected by Gustavo Petro alleging its environmental effects. The use of this chemical, somewhat controversial in Colombia, could be assumed as an effective way to end illicit crops if its contamination is counteracted, for example, by planting new trees in the areas where coca production is eradicated. In any case, some environmentalists have used the negative image of glyphosate to ask for Petro's vote in the second round of elections.

Another of the great challenges that the next president will face is the topic of the Special Jurisdiction for Peace. The JEP is a body in charge of judging former guerrillas. It has judicial powers and "represents the backbone of the signed agreements". It is composed of five bodies, each one in charge of the fulfillment of essential parts of the agreement: "the conference room of Truth and Responsibility Acknowledgement, the conference room of Amnesty and Pardon, the conference room of Definition of Legal Situations, the Unit of research and accusation, and the Peace Tribunal". The JEP is a complex body on which the progress of the peace process depends. In fact, one of the reasons for the great delays suffered by the implementation of agreement has been the slowness in the constitution of this institution, which did not begin to function until last January. However, the obstacles suffered by the JEP have not only had to do with lack of activity, but also with issues such as the case of Jesús Santrich.

Santrich, one of the guerrilla leaders, who was a negotiator in Havana for the FARC and received one of the posts assigned to the new party at congress, was arrested in April, accused of participating in a plan to bring 10 tons of cocaine to the United States. Based on a research from the DEA, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency, U.S. judicial authorities requested his arrest and are now awaiting his extradition. However, taking into account that all FARC members must be tried by the JEP, and that this body does not provide for extradition, Jesús Santrich could not be handed over to the United States. In addition, there is currently no evidence as to when the alleged drug trafficking crimes were committed, so for now it has not been possible to determine whether they occurred before or after the creation of the JEP. The former guerrilla is being held in a Bogotá prison and the FARC is insisting that he be released. The next president will have to determine how to proceed with the case. This is also a sample that there are loopholes in the agreement, which generates a lot of uncertainty and gives room for the next president to take various courses of action.

Beyond peace

Next June 17, in the presidential runoff between Iván Duque and Gustavo Petro, the future of Colombia will be decided. Although many Colombians believe that it is a choice between war or peace, this is wrong. As has been discussed before, the peace agreement is very difficult to roll back legally. The substance of the agreement must be respected by the next three governments. Even if it is true that with the candidate of the Democratic Center in power the agreement may undergo more modifications than those that would be applied by the candidate of the Progressive Movement, the possibility of consolidating peace remains open with either of the two. Beyond peace, the economic and social model of Colombian society is also at stake. Even if peace is one of the most important issues, the next president should not leave behind other relevant elements such as corruption, security, trade and Economics in the 2018-2022 presidential term of the Republic of Colombia. The candidates' position on these issues should also influence voters.