▲ US X-37B unmanned space plane, returning from its fourth mission, in 2017 [US Air Force].

GLOBAL AFFAIRS JOURNAL / Luis V. Pérez Gil

 

[10-page document. downloadin PDF]

 

INTRODUCTION

The militarization of space is a reality. The major powers have taken the step of putting satellites into orbit that can attack and destroy the space apparatus of the adversary or third States. The consequences for those who suffer these attacks can be catastrophic, because their communications, navigation and defense systems will be partially or totally disabled. This scenario raises, as in nuclear war, the possibility of a preemptive attack aimed at avoiding being in the hands of the adversary in an eventual war. The United States and Russia have the capability to carry out such actions, but the other powers do not want to lag behind. The rest are trying to follow the great powers, who dictate the rules of the system.

The great powers also compete in space to maintain their primacy in the global international system and try to ensure that, in the event of a confrontation, they can disable and destroy the adversary's command and control, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, because without satellites their ability to defend themselves against the demolishing power of precision-guided weapons is reduced. From this follows the rule that whoever dominates space will dominate the Earth in a war.

This is one of the fundamental tenets of Friedman's work on power in international relations in this century, when he states that the wars of the future will be fought in space because adversaries will seek to destroy the space systems that allow them to select targets and the navigation and communications satellites to disable their warfare capabilities.

As a result, both the United States and Russia, as well as China, are financing major space programs and developing new technologies aimed at obtaining unconventional satellites and space planes, so that we can speak unequivocally of the militarization of space, as we shall see in the following sections.

But, before continuing, we must remember that there is a multilateral international treaty, called the Outer Space Treaty, initially signed by the United States, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union on January 27, 1967, which establishes a series of limitations on operations in space. According to this treaty any country launching an object into space "shall retain jurisdiction and control over such object, as well as over all staff on it, while in space or on a celestial body" (article 8). It also states that any country "shall be manager internationally liable for damage caused to another State party (...) by such an object or its component parts on Earth, in airspace or outer space" (article 7). This means that any space satellite can approach a device of another country, follow it or make remote observations, but cannot alter or interrupt its operability in any way. It should be clarified that, although nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction are prohibited in space, there is no limitation on the installation of conventional weapons on space satellites. At the urging of Russia and China the United Nations General Assembly has been pushing since 2007 for a multilateral treaty project banning weapons in outer space, the use of force or the threat of use against space objects, but it has been systematically rejected by the United States.

▲ In addition to Moon return and Mars landings, asteroid travel programs also accelerate [NASA].

GLOBAL AFFAIRS JOURNAL / Javier Gómez-Elvira

 

[8-page document. downloadin PDF]

 

INTRODUCTION

Since time immemorial, human beings have imagined themselves outside the Earth, exploring other worlds. One of the first stories dates back to the second century A.D. Lucian of Samosata wrote a book in which his characters reached the Moon thanks to the impulse of a whirlwind and there they developed their adventures. Since then, numerous science fiction novels or stories can be found that take place on the Moon, Mars, other bodies of our Solar System or even beyond. Somehow all of them lost a bit of their fiction in the middle of the last century, with the first steps of an astronaut on our satellite. Unfortunately, what seemed to be the beginning of a new era did not go beyond 5 missions in 2 years.

The first stage began when President Kennedy uttered his famous phrase: "We choose to go to the Moon.... We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too". Although perhaps the end was written in the beginning: the only goal was to demonstrate that the US was the technological leader over the USSR, and when this was achieved the project stopped.

▲ Scene about anchoring on an asteroid to develop mining activity, from ExplainingTheFuture.com [Christopher Barnatt].

GLOBAL AFFAIRS JOURNAL / Emili J. Blasco

 

[8-page document. downloadin PDF]

 

INTRODUCTION

The new space degree program is based on more solid and lasting foundations -especially economic interest- than the first one, which was based on ideological skill and international prestige. In the new Cold War there are also space developments that obey the strategic struggle of the great powers, as occurred between the 1950s and 1970s, but today the aspects of exploration and defense are joined by commercial interests: companies are taking over in many aspects to the protagonism of the States.

However debatable it may be to speak of a new space age, given that since the emblematic launch of Sputnik in 1957, there has been no end to programmed activity in different regions of space, including human presence (although manned trips to the Moon have ended, there have been trips and stays in Earth's orbit leave ), the truth is that we have entered a new phase.

Hollywood, which so well reflects the social reality and generational aspirations of each time, serves as a mirror. After a time without special space-related productions, since 2013 the genre is experiencing a resurgence, with new nuances. Films such as Gravity, Interstellar and Mars illustrate the moment of takeoff of a renewed ambition that, after the short horizon of the shuttle program - recognized as a mistake by NASA, by focusing on the Earth's orbit leave -, connects with the logical sequence of the perspectives opened by the arrival of man on the Moon: instructions lunar, manned trips to Mars and space colonization.

At the level of the collective imagination, the new space age starts from the square where the previous one "ended", that day in December 1972 when Gene Cernan, Apollo 17 astronaut, left the Moon. Somehow, in all this time there has been "the sadness of thinking that in 1973 we had reached the peak of our evolution as a species" and that later it stopped: "while we were growing up we were promised rocket backpacks, and in exchange we got Instagram", states the graphic commentary of one of the co-writers of Interstellar.

Something similar is what George W. Bush had expressed when in 2004 he commissioned NASA to start preparing for man's return to the Moon: "In the last thirty years, no human being has set foot on another world or ventured into space beyond 386 miles [621 kilometers in altitude], roughly the distance from Washington, DC, to Boston, Massachusetts".

The year 2004 could be considered the beginning of the new space age, not only because manned trips to the Moon and Mars have been back in NASA's sights since then, but also because it was the first milestone in private space exploration with the experimental flight of SpaceShipOne: it was the first access of a private pilot to orbital space, something that until then had been considered the exclusive domain of the government.

The U.S. priority then went from the Moon to some of the asteroids and then to Mars, to return to the trip to our satellite to occupy the first place of the diary space. Returning to the Moon, the idea of a "return" to space exploration acquires a special significance.

GLOBAL AFFAIRS JOURNAL #2 / March 2020

 

[download the PDF of the complete Journal ]

 

The horizon is up again:

Powers and companies fight for space

PRESENTATION

We are witnessing a new space age, which is here to stay. This time it is serious. It will not be a one-flower crop, like the arrival of the human being on the Moon, which is soon to wither away. The return of geopolitical tension to Earth also has its projection in space, conceived no longer as a place of incursion or strategic support territory but as a domain in its own right, of the same importance and proximity as the others (land, sea, air... and network). Although the space priority of the superpowers may be modulated according to the ups and downs of international relations, humanity has become so dependent on artificial satellites that space is now a definitive part of our direct environment. However, it is the awakened economic interest in the business prospects of the space sector, manifested in the degree program of various private companies to take over activities that previously, due to the enormous budgetary requirements, were only undertaken by certain states, which ensures the continuity of a stage that is opening not to close.

The horizon returns to this one above - return to the Moon, flight to Mars, asteroid mining - after the unsustained efforts carried out half a century ago. To that horizon we wanted to dedicate this year's issue of Global Affairs Journal, following the launch of this monographic publication in 2019 with the focus on another issue of great strategic importance, the geopolitics of demography and the demographic challenges of the great powers. So welcome and bon voyage to the stars!

 

Index

THE HORIZON IS UP AGAIN:

POWERS AND COMPANIES FIGHT FOR SPACE

Presentation

p. 5[PDF version].

 

SPACE: NEW MILITARY AND ECONOMIC DOMINANCE

Introduction of GASS director

p. 6-13[PDF version].

 

BACK TO SPACE EXPLORATION

Javier Gómez-Elvira

Director from department of INTA Payloads

p. 14-21[PDF version].

 

MILITARIZATION OF SPACE:

DEVELOPMENT OF INSPECTING SATELLITES

Luis V. Pérez Gil

Expert in Space Force, University of La Laguna, Spain

p. 22-31[PDF version].

 

DEGREE PROGRAM FOR SPATIAL RESOURCES:

FROM MINING TO ROAD CONTROL

Emili J. Blasco

Professor of Applied Geopolitics, University of Navarra, Spain

p. 32-39[PDF version].

 

INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORKS RELEVANT TO

THE EXTRACTION AND USE OF SPACE RESOURCES

Mario Pereira

Professor of Law, University of Navarra

p. 40-54[PDF version].

 

RECOMMENDED READING

L. V. Pérez Gil, E. J. Blasco

Ramón Barba, Ángel Martos

p. 54-56[PDF version].

▲ Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur, also called Kartarpur Sahib, is a Sikh holy place in Kartarpur, in the Pakistani Punjab [Wikimedia Commons].

ESSAY / Pablo Viana

Punjab region has been part of India until the year 1947, when the Punjab province of British India was divided in two parts, East Punjab (India) and West Punjab (Pakistan) due to religious reasons. After the division a lot of internal violence occurred, and many people were displaced.

East and West Punjab

The partition of Punjab proved to be one of the most violent, brutal, savage debasements in the history of humankind. The undivided Punjab, of which West Punjab forms a major region today, was home to a large minority population of Punjabi Sikhs and Hindus unto 1947 apart from the Muslim majority[1]. This minority population of Punjabi Sikhs called for the creation of a new state in the 1970s, with the name of Khalistan, but it was detained by India, sending troops to stop the militants. Terrorist attacks against the Sikh majority emerged, by those who did not accept the creation of the state of Khalistan and wished to stay in India.

The Sikh population is the dominant religious ethnicity in East Punjab (58%) followed by the Hindu (39%). Sikhism and Islamism are both monotheistic religions, they do believe on the same concept of God, although it is different on each religion. Sikhism was developed during the 16th and 17th century in the context of conflict in between Hinduism and Islamism. It is important to mention Sikhism if we talk about Punjab, as its origins were in Punjab, but most important in recent times, is that the Guru Nanak Dev[2] was buried in Pakistani territory. Four kilometers from the international border the Sikh shrine was conceded to Pakistan at the time of British India's Partition in 1947. For followers of Sikhism this new border that cut through Punjab proved especially problematic. Sikhs overwhelmingly chose India over the newly formed Pakistan as the state that would best protect their interests (there are an estimated 50,000 Sikhs living in Pakistan today, compared to the 24 million in India). However, in making this choice, Sikhs became isolated from several holy sites, creating a religious disconnection that has proved a constant spiritual and emotional dilemma for the community[3].

In order to let the Sikhist population visit the Gurdwara Darbar Sahib[4], the Kartarpur Corridor was created in November 2019. However, there is an incessant suspicion in between India and Pakistan that question Pakistan motives. Although it seems like a generous move work of the Pakistani government, there is a clear perception that Pakistan is engaged in an act of deception[5]. Thus, although this scenario might seem at first beneficial for the rapprochement of East and West Punjab, it is not at all. Pakistan is involved in a rhetorical policy which could end up worsening its relations with India.

The division of Punjab in 1947 was like the division of Pakistan and India on that same year. Territorial disputes have been an issue that defines very well India-Pakistan relations since the independence. In the case of Punjab, there has not been a territorial discussion. The division was clear and has been respected ever since. Why would Pakistan and/or India be willing to unify Punjab? There is no reason. East and West Punjab represent two different nations and three religions. If we think about reunifying Pakistan and India, the conclusion is the same (although more dramatic); too many discrepancies and recent unrest to think about bringing back together the nations. However, if the Kartarpur Corridor could be placed out of bonds for the territorial disputes between Pakistan and India (e.g. Kashmir), Islamabad and New Delhi could use this situation as a model to find out which are the pressure points and trying to find a path for identifying common solutions. In order to achieve this, there should be a clear behavior by both parties of cooperation. Sadly, in recent times both Pakistan and India have discrepancies regarding many topics and suspicious behaviours that clearly show that they won't be interested in complicating more the situation in Punjab searching for unification. The riots of 1947 left a terrific era on the region and now that both sides are established and no major disputes have emerged (except for Sikh nationalism), the situation should and will most likely remain as it is.

The Indus Water Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan with the help of the World Bank, which is also a signatory. Seen as one of the most successful international treaties, it has survived frequent tensions, including conflict, and has provided a framework for irrigation and hydropower development for more than half a century. The Treaty basically provides a mechanism for exchange of information and cooperation between Pakistan and India regarding the use of their rivers. This mechanism is well known as the Permanent Indus Commission. The Treaty also sets forth distinct procedures to handle issues which may arise: "questions" are handled by the Commission; "differences" are to be resolved by a Neutral Expert; and "disputes" are to be referred to a seven-member arbitral tribunal called the "Court of Arbitration." As a signatory to the Treaty, the World Bank's role is limited and procedural[6].    

Since 1948, India has been confident on the fact that East Punjab and the acceding states have a prior and superior claim to the rivers flowing through their territory. This leaves West Punjab in disadvantage regarding water resources, as East Punjab can access the highest sections of the rivers. Even under a unified control designed to ensure equitable distribution of water, in years of low river flow cultivators on tail distributaries always tended to accuse those on the upper reaches of taking an undue amount of the water, and after partition any temporary shortage, whatever the cause, could easily be attributed to political motives. It was therefore wise of Pakistan-indeed it became imperative-to cut the new feeder from the Ravi for this area and thus become independent of distributaries in East Punjab[7]. The Treaty acknowledges the control of the eastern rivers to India, and to the western rivers to Pakistan.

The main issue of water distribution in between East and West Punjab is then a matter of geography. Even though West Punjab covers more territory than East Punjab, and the water flow of West Punjab is almost three times the water flow of East Punjab rivers, the Indus Water Treaty gives the following advantage to India: since Pakistan rivers receive much more water flow from India, the treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unlimited use for power generation, domestic, industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture and this is where the disputes mainly came from, as Pakistan has objected all Indian hydro-electric projects on western rivers irrespective of size and layout.

It is worth mentioning that with the World Bank mediating the Treaty in between India and Pakistan, the water access will not be curtailed, and since the ratification of the Treaty, India and Pakistan have not engaged in any water wars. Although there have been many tensions the disputes have been via legal procedures, but they haven't caused any major cause for conflict. Today, both countries are strengthening their relationship, and the scenario is not likely to get worse, it is actually the opposite, and the Indus Water Treaty is one of the few livelihoods of the relationship. If the tensions do not cease, the World Bank should consider the possibility of amending the treaty, obviously if both Pakistan and India are willing to cooperate, although with the current environment, a renegotiation of the treaty would probably bring more complications. There is no shred of evidence that India has violated the Indus Water Treaty or that it is stealing Pakistan's water[8], although Pakistan does blame India for breaching the treaty, as shown before. This is pointed out by Hindu politicians as an attempt by Pakistan to divert the attention of its own public from the real issues of gross mismanagement of water resources[9].

Pakistan has a more hostile attitude regarding water distribution, trying to find a way to impeach India, meanwhile India focuses on the development of hydro-electric projects. India won't stop providing water to the West Punjab, as the treaty is still in force and is fulfilled by both parties. Pakistan should reconsider its role and its benefits received thanks to the treaty and meditate about the constant pressure towards India, as pushing over the limit could mean a more hostile activity carried out by India, which in the worst case scenario (although not likely to happen) could mean a breakdown of the treaty.

▲ Attack in Kashmir linked to groups of Pakistani origin [tweeted by @ANI].

ESSAY / Isabel Calderas [Ignacio Lucas as research assistant].

There is a myriad of security concerns regarding external factors when it comes to Pakistan: India, Afghanistan, the Saudi Arabia-Iran split and the United States, to name a few. However, there are also two main concerns that come from within: jihadism and organized crime. They are interconnected but differ in many ways. The latter is frequently overlooked to focus on the former, but both have the capacity of affecting the country, internally and externally, as the effectiveness of dealing with them impacts the perception the international community has of Pakistan. While internally disrupting, these problems also have international reach, as such groups often export their activities, adversely affecting at a global scale. Therefore, international actors put so much pressure on Pakistan to control them. Historically, there has been much scepticism over the government's ability, or even willingness to solve these risks. We will examine both problems separately, identifying the impact they have on the national and international arena, as well as the government's approach to dealing with either and the future risks they entail.

1. JIHADISM

Pakistan's education system has become a central part of the country's radicalization phenomenon[1], in the materialization of madrassas. These schools, which teach a more puritanical version of Islam than had traditionally been practiced in Pakistan, have been directly linked to the rise of jihadist groups[2]. Saudi Arabia, who has always had very close relations with Pakistan, played a key role in their development, by funding the Ahl-e-Hadith and Deobandi madrassas since the 1970s. The Iranian revolution bolstered the Saudi's imperative to control Sunnism in Pakistan, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan gave them the vehicle to do so[3]. In these schools, which teach a biased view of the world, students display low tolerance for minorities and are more likely to turn to jihadism.

Saudi and American funding of madrassas during the Soviet occupation helped the Pakistani army's intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), become more powerful, as they channelled millions of dollars to them, a lot of which went into the madrassas which sent mujahedeen fighters to fight for their cause[4]. The Taliban's origins can also be traced to these, as the militia was raised mainly from Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan and Saudi-funded madrassas[5].

Madrassas are especially popular in the poorer provinces of the country, where parents send their children to them for several non-religious reasons. First, because the Qur'an is written in Arabic and madrassas teach this language[6]. The dire situation of many families forces millions of Pakistanis to migrate to neighboring, oil-rich Arabic-speaking countries, from where they send remittances home to help support their families. Secondly, the public-school system in Pakistan is weak, often failing to teach basic reading skills[7], something the madrassas do teach.

Partly in response to the international pressure[8] it has been under to fight terrorism within its territory; Pakistan has tried to reform the madrassas. The government has stated its intention to bring madrassas under the umbrella of the education ministry, financing these schools by allocating cash otherwise destined to fund anti-terrorism security operations[9]. It plans to add subjects like science to the curriculum, to lessen the focus on Islamic teachings. However, this faces several challenges, among which the resistance from the teachers and clerical authorities who run the madrassas outstands[10].

Before moving on to the prominent radical groups in Pakistan, we would like to make a brief summary on a different cause of radicalization: the unintended effect of the drone strategy adopted by the United States.

The United States has increasingly chosen to target its radical enemies in Pakistan through the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which can be highly effective in neutralizing objectives, but also pose a series of risks, like the killing of innocent civilians that are in the neighboring area. This American strategy, which Pakistan has publicly criticized, has fomented anti-American sentiment among the Pakistanis, at a ratio on average of every person killed resulting in the radicalization of several more people[11]. The growing unpopularity of drone strikes has further weakened relations between both governments, but shows no signs of changing in the future, if recent attacks carried by the U.S. are any indication. Pakistan's efforts to de-radicalize its population will continue to be undermined by the U.S. drone strikes[12].

Pakistan's anti-terrorism strategy is linked to its geostrategic and regional interests, especially dealing with its eastern and western neighbors[13]. There are many radical groups operating within their territory, and the government's strategy towards them shifts depending on their goal[14]. Groups like the Afghan Taliban, who target foreign invasions in their own country, and Al Qaeda, whose jihad against the West is on a global scale, have been allowed to use Pakistani territory to coordinate operations and take refuge. Their strategy is quite different for Pakistani Taliban group, Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) who, despite being allied with the Afghan Taliban, has a different goal: to oust the Pakistani government and impose Sharia law[15]. Most of the military's campaigns aimed at cracking down on radicals have been targeted at weakening groups affiliated with TTP. Lastly, there are those groups with whom some branches of the Pakistani government directly collaborate with.

Pakistan has been known to use jihadi organizations to advance its security objectives through proxy conflicts. Pakistan's policy of waging war through terrorist groups is planned, coordinated, and conducted by the Pakistani Army, specifically the ISI[16] who, as previously mentioned, plays a vital role in running the State.

Although this has been a longstanding cause of tension between the Pakistani and the American governments, the U.S. has made no progress in persuading or compelling the Pakistani military to sever ties with the radical groups[17], even though the Pakistani government has stated that it has, over the past year, 'fought and eradicated the menace of terrorism from its soil' by carrying out arrests, seizing property and freezing bank accounts of groups proscribed by the United States and the United Nations[18]. Their actions have been enough to keep them off the FATF's blacklist for financing terrorism and money laundering[19], which would prevent them from getting financing, but concerns remain about ISI's involvement with radical groups, the future of the relations between them, the overall activity of these groups from within Pakistani territory, and the risk of a future attack to its neighbors.

We will use two of Pakistan's main proxy groups, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, to analyze the feasibility of an attack in the near future.

1.1. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT)

Created to support the resistance against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, LeT now focuses on the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Kashmir, the highest priorities for the Pakistani military's foreign policy. The Ahl-e-Hadith group is led by its founder, Hafiz Saeed. Its headquarters are in Punjab. Unlike its counterparts, it is a well-organized, unified, and hierarchical organization, which has become highly institutionalized in the last thirty years. As a result, it has not suffered any major losses or any fractures since its inception[20].

Since the Mumbai attacks in 2008 (which also involved ISI), for which LeT were responsible, its close relationship with the military has defined the group's operations, most noticeably by restraining their actions in India, which reflects both the Pakistani military's desire to avoid international pressure and conflict with their neighbor and the group's capability to contain its members. The group has calibrated its activities, although it possesses the capability to expand its violence. Its outlets for violence have been Afghanistan and Kashmir, which align with the Pakistani military's diary: to bring Afghanistan under Pakistan's sphere of influence while keeping India off-balance in Kashmir[21]. The recent U.S.-Taliban deal in Afghanistan and militarization of Kashmir by India may change this. LeT has benefited handsomely for its loyalty, receiving unparalleled protection, patronage, and privilege from the military. However, after twelve years of restraint, Lashkar undoubtedly faces pressures from within its ranks to strike against India again, especially now that Narendra Modi is prime minister.

1.2. Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM)

The Deobandi organization, led by its founder Masood Azhar, has had close bonds with Al-Qaeda and the Taliban since they came into light in 2000. With the commencement of the war on terror in Afghanistan, JeM reciprocated by launching an attack on the Indian Parliament on December 2001, in cooperation with LeT. However, it ignored the Pakistani military's will in 2019 when it launched the Pulwama attack, after which the government of Pakistan launched a countrywide crackdown on them, taking leaders and members into preventive custody[22].

Risk assessment

Although it has gone rogue before, Jaish-e-Muhammad has been weakened by the recent government's crackdown. What remains of the group, consolidated under Masood Azhar, has repaired ties with the military. Although JeM has demonstrated it still possesses formidable capability in Indian Kashmir, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba represents the main concern for an attack on India in the near future.

Lashkar has been both the most reliable and loyal of all the proxy groups and has also proven it does not take major action without prior approval from the ISI, which could become a problem. Pakistan has adopted a policy of maintaining plausible deniability for any attacks in order to avoid international pressure after 9/11, thus LeT's close ties with the military make it more likely that its actions will provoke a war between the two countries.

The United States has tried for several years to get Pakistan to stop using proxies. There are several scenarios in which Lashkar would break from the Pakistani state (or vice versa), but they are farfetched and beyond foreign influence: a) a change in Pakistan's security calculus, b) a resolution on Kashmir, c) a shift in Lashkar's responsiveness and d) a major Lashkar attack in the West[23].

a) A change in Pakistan's security calculus is the least likely, as the India-centric understanding of Pakistan's interests and circumstances is deeply embedded in the psyche of the security establishment[24].

b) A resolution on Kashmir would trouble Lashkar, who seeks full unification of all Kashmir with Pakistan, which would not be the outcome of a negotiated resolution. More so, Modi's recent decision regarding article 370 puts this possibility even further into the future.

c) A shift in Lashkar responsiveness would be caused by the internal pressures to perform another attack, after more than a decade of abiding by the security establishment's will. If perceived as too powerful of insufficiently responsive, ISI would most likely seek to dismantle the group, as they did with Jaish-e-Muhammad, by focusing on the rogue elements and leaving Lashkar smaller but more responsive. This presents a threat, as the group would not allow itself to be simply dismantled but would probably resist to the point of becoming hostile[25].

d) The last option, a major Lashkar attack in the West, is also unlikely, as the group has not undertaken any major attack without perceived greenlight from ISI.

This does not mean that an attack from LeT can be ruled out. ISI could allow the group to carry out an attack if, in the absence of a better reason, it feels that the pressure from within the group will start causing dissent and fractures, just like it happened in 2008. It is in ISI's best interest that Lashkar remains a strong, united ally. Knowing this, it is important to note that a large-scale attack in India by Lashkar is arguably the most likely trigger to a full-blown conflict between the two nations. Even a smaller-scale attack has the potential of provoking India, especially under Modi.

If such an attack where to happen, India would not be expected to display a weak-kneed gesture, as PM Modi's policy is that of a tough and powerful approach in defense vis-à-vis both Pakistan and China. This has already been made evident by its retaliation for the Fidayeen attack at Uri brigade headquarters by Jaish-e-Muhammad in 2016[26]. It has now become evident that if Pakistan continues to harbour terrorist groups against India as its strategic assets, there will be no military restraint by India as long as Modi is in power, who will respond with massive retaliation. In its fragile economic condition, Pakistan will not be able to sustain a long-drawn war effort[27].

On the other hand, Afghanistan, which has been the other focus of Pakistan's proxy groups, is now undergoing a process which could result in a major organizational shift. The Taliban insurgent movement has been able survive this long due to the sanctuary and support provided by Pakistan[28]. Furthermore, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba's participation in the Afghan insurgency furthered the Pakistani military's goal of having a friendly, anti-India partner on its western border[29]. The development and outcome of the intra-Afghan talks will determine the continued use of proxies in the country. However, we can realistically assume that, at least in the near future, radical groups will maintain some degree of activity in Afghanistan.

It is highly unlikely that the Pakistani intelligence establishment will stop engaging with radical groups, as it sees in them a very useful strategic tool for achieving its security goals. However, Pakistan's plausible deniability approach will come into question, as its close ties with Lashkar-e-Tayyiba make it increasingly hard for it to deny involvement in its acts with any credibility. Regarding India, any kind of offensive from this group could result in a large-scale conflict. This is precisely the most likely scenario to occur, as Modi's history with Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and their twelve-year-long "hiatus" from impactful attacks could propel the organization to take action that will impact the whole region.

2. DRUG TRAFFICKING

Drug trafficking constitutes an important problem for Pakistan. It originates in Afghanistan, from where thousands of tonnes are smuggled out every year, using Pakistan as a passageway to provide the world with heroin and opioids[30]. The following concept map has been elaborated with information from diverse sources[31] to present the different aspects of the problem aimed to better comprehend the complex situation.

 

 

Afghanistan, one of the world's largest heroin producers, has supplied up to 60% and 80% of the U.S. and European markets, respectively. The landlocked country takes advantage of its blurred border line, and the remoteness and inaccessibility of the sparsely populated bordering regions with Pakistan, using it as a conduit to send its drugs globally. The Pakistani government is under a lot of pressure from the international community to fight and minimize drug trafficking from its territory.

Pakistan feels a special kind of pressure from the European Union, as its GSP+ status could be affected if it does not control this problem. The GSP+ is dependent on the implementation of 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, protection of the environment and good governance, including the UN Convention on Fighting Illegal Drugs[32]. Pakistan was granted GSP+ status in 2014 and has shown commitment to maintaining ratifications and meeting reporting obligations to the UN Treaty bodies[33]. However, one of the aspects of the scheme is its "temporary withdrawal and safeguard" measure, which means the preferences can be immediately withdrawn if the country is unable to control drug trafficking effectively[34]. This has not been the case, and the EU has recognized Pakistan's efforts in the fight on drugs; the UN has also removed it from the list of cannabis resin production countries[35]. Anti-corruption frameworks have been strengthened, along with legislation review and awareness building, but they have been advised that better coordination between law enforcement agencies is needed[36].

The GSP+ status is very important to Pakistan, as the European Union is their first trade partner, absorbing over a third of their total exports in 2018, followed by the U.S., China and Afghanistan[37]. The Union can use this as leverage to obtain concessions from Pakistan. However, the approach they have taken so far has been of collaboration in many areas, including transnational organized crime, money laundering and counter-narcotics[38]. In this sense, the EU ambassador to Pakistan recently stated that the new Strategic Engagement Plan of 2019 would "further boost their relations in diverse fields"[39].

Even with combined efforts, eradicating the drug trafficking problem in Pakistan has proven to be very difficult. This is because production of the drug is not done in its territory, and even if border patrols are strengthened, it will be very hard to stop drugs from coming in from its neighbor if the Afghan government doesn't take appropriate measures themselves.

 

 

A "5 whys" exercise has led us to understand that the root cause of the problem is the fact that most farmers in Afghanistan are too poor to turn to different crops. A nearly two decade war has ravaged the country's land, leaving opium crops, which are cheaper and easier to maintain, as the only option for most farmers in this agrarian nation. A substantial investment in the country's agriculture to produce more economic options would be needed if any serious advance is expected to be made in stopping illegal drug trafficking. These investments will have to be a joint effort of the international community, and funding for the government will also be necessary, if stability is to be reached. Unless this is done, opium will likely remain entangled in the rural economy, the Taliban insurgency, and the government corruption whose sum is the Afghan conundrum.[40]. And as long as this does not happen, it is highly unlikely that Pakistan will be able to make any substantial progress in its effort to fight illicit drugs.

▲ Prime Minister Imran Kahn, at the United Nations General Assembly, in 2019 [UN].

ESSAY / M. Biera, H. Labotka, A. Palacios

The geographical location of a country is capable of determining its destiny. This is the thesis defended by Whiting Fox in his book "History from a Geographical Perspective". In particular, he highlights the importance of the link between history and geography in order to point to a determinism in which a country's aspirations are largely limited (or not) by its physical place in the world.[1] The geographical location of a country is capable of determining its destiny.

Countries try to overcome these limitations by trying to build on their internal strengths. In the case of Pakistan, these are few, but very relevant in a regional context dominated by the balance of power and military deterrence.

The first factor that we highlight in this sense is related to Pakistan's nuclear capacity. In spite of having officially admitted it in 1998, Pakistan has been a country with nuclear capacity, at least, since Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's government started its nuclear program in 1974 under the name of Project-706 as a reaction to the once very advanced Indian nuclear program.[2] The first factor we highlight in this sense is related to Pakistan's nuclear capacity.[2] The first factor we highlight is related to Pakistan's nuclear capacity.

The second factor is its military strength. Despite the fact that they have publicly refused to participate in politics, the truth is that all governments since 1947, whether civilian or military, have had direct or indirect military support.[3] The governments of Ayub Khan or former army chief Zia Ul-Haq, both through a coup d'état, are faithful examples of this capacity for influence.[4] The military is a key factor in the development of the country's political system.[5] The military is a key factor in the development of the country's economy.

The existence of an efficient army provides internal stability in two ways: first, as a bastion of national unity. This effect is quite relevant if we take into account the territorial claims arising from the ethnic division caused by the Durand Line. Secondly, it succeeds in maintaining the state's monopoly on force, preventing its disintegration as a result of internal ethnic disputes and terrorism instigated by Afghanistan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA region).[5] The existence of an efficient army provides stability in two ways: firstly, as a bastion of national unity.

Despite its internal strengths, Pakistan is located in one of the most insecure geographical areas in the world, where border conflicts are intermingled with religious and identity-based elements. Indeed, the endless conflict over Kashmir against India in the northeastern part of the Pakistani border or the serious internal situation in Afghanistan have been weighing down the country for decades, both geo-politically and economically. The dynamics of regional alliances are not very favorable for Pakistan either, especially when US preferences, Pakistan's main ally, seem to be mutating towards a realignment with India, Pakistan's main enemy.[6] The country's regional alliances are not very favorable for Pakistan either, especially when US preferences, Pakistan's main ally, seem to be mutating towards a realignment with India, Pakistan's main enemy.[6 

On the positive side, a number of projects are underway in Central Asia that may provide an opportunity for Pakistan to re-launch its economy and obtain higher standards of stability domestically. The most relevant is the New Silk Road undertaken by China. This project has Pakistan as a cornerstone in its strategy in Asia, while it depends on it to achieve an outlet to the sea in the eastern border of the country and investments exceeding 11 billion dollars are expected in Pakistan alone[7]. In this way, a realignment with China can help Pakistan combat the apparent American disengagement from Pakistani interests.

For all these reasons, it is difficult to speak of Pakistan as a country capable of carving out its own destiny, but rather as a country held hostage to regional power dynamics. Throughout this document, a review of the regional phenomena mentioned will be made in order to analyze Pakistan's behavior in the face of the different challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

History

Right after the downfall of the British colony of the East Indies colonies in 1947 and the partition of India the Dominion of Pakistan was formed, now known by the title of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The Partition of India divided the former British colony into two separate territories, the Dominion of Pakistan and the Dominion of India. By then, Pakistan included East Pakistan (modern day) Pakistan and Oriental Pakistan (now known as Bangladesh).

It is interesting to point out that the first form of government that Pakistan experienced was something similar to a democracy, being its founding father and first Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Jinnah. Political history in Pakistan consists of a series of eras, some democratically led and others ruled by the military branch which controls a big portion of the country.

-The rise of Pakistan as a Muslim democracy: 1957-1958. The era of Ali Jinnah and the First Indo-Pakistani war.

-In 1958 General Ayub Khan achieved to complete a coup d'état in Pakistan due to the corruption and instability.

-In 1971 General Khan resigned his position and appointed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto as president, but, lasted only 6 years. The political instability was not fruitful and rivalry between political parties was. But in 1977 General Zia-ul-Haq imposed a new order in Pakistan.

-From 1977 to 1988 Zia-ul-Haq imposed an Islamic state.

-In the elections of 1988 right after Zia-ul-Haq's death, President Benazir Bhutto became the very first female leader of Pakistan. This period, up to 1999 is characterized by its democracy but also, by the Kargil War.

-In 1999 General Musharraf took control of the presidency and turned it 90º degrees, opening its economy and politics. In 2007 Musharraf announced his resignation leaving open a new democratic era characterized by the War on Terror of the United States in Afghanistan and the Premiership of Imran Khan.

 

 

Human and physical geography

The capital of Pakistan is Islamabad, and as of 2012 houses a population of 1.9 million people. While the national language of Pakistan is English, the official language is Urdu; however, it is not spoken as a native language. Afghanistan is Pakistan's neighbor to the northwest, with China to the north, as well as Iran to the west, and India to the east and south.[8] The country has a population of 1.9 million people.

Pakistan is unique in the way that it possesses many a geological formation, like forests, plains, hills, etcetera. It sits along the Arabian Sea and is home to the northern Karakoram mountain range, and lies above Iranian, Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. There are three dominant geographical regions that make up Pakistan: the Indus Plain, which owes its name to the river Indus of which Pakistan's dominant rivers merge; the Balochistan Plateau, and the northern highlands, which include the 2nd highest mountain peak in the world, and the Mount Godwin Austen.[9] Pakistan's traditional regions are a consequence of progression. These regions are echoed by the administrative distribution into the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which includes FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) and Balochistan.

Each of these regions is "ethnically and linguistically distinct."[10] But why is it important to understand Pakistan's geography? The reason is, and will be discussed further in detail in this paper, the fact that "terror is geographical" and Pakistan is "at the epicenter of the neo-realist, militarist geopolitics of anti-terrorism and its well-known manifestation the 'global war on terror'..."[11] But why is it important to understand Pakistan's geography?

Punjabi make up more than 50% of the ethnic division in Pakistan, and the smallest division is the Balochi. We should note that Balochistan, however small, is an antagonistic region for the Pakistani government. The reason is because it is a "base for many extremist and secessionist groups." This is also important because CPEC, the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor, is anticipated to greatly impact the area, as a large portion of the initiative is to be constructed in that region. The impact of CPEC is hoped to make that region more economically stable and change the demography of this region.[12] The impact of the CPEC is expected to make that region more economically stable and change the demography of this region.[12

The majority of Pakistani people are Sunni Muslims, and maintain Islamic tradition. However, there is a significant number of Shiite Muslims. Religion in Pakistan is so important that it is represented in the government, most obviously within the Islamic Assembly (Jamāʿat-i Islāmī) party which was created in 1941.[13]

This is important. The reason being is that there is a history of sympathy for Islamic extremism by the government, and giving rise to the expansion of the ideas of this extremism. Historically, Pakistan has not had a strict policy against jihadis, and this lack of policy has poorly affected Pakistan's foreign policy, especially its relationship with the United States, which will be touched upon in this paper.

Current Situation: Domestic politics, the military and the economy

Imran Khan was elected and took office on August 18th, 2018. Before then, the previous administrations had been overshadowed by suspicions of corruption. What also remained important was the fact that his election comes after years of a dominating political power, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) surfaced as the majority in the Pakistan's National Assembly. However, there is some discussion by specialists on how prepared the new prime minister is to take on this extensive task.

Economically, Pakistan was in a bad shape even before the global Coronavirus-related crisis. In October 2019, the IMF predicted that the country's GDP would increase only 2.4% in 2020, compared with 5.2% registered in 2017 and 5.5% in 2018; inflation would arrive to 13% in 2020, three times the registered figure of 2017 and 2018, and gross debt would peak at 78.6%, ten points up from 2017 and 2018.[14] This context led to the Pakistani government to ask for a loan to the IMF, and a $6 billion loan was agreed in July 2019. In addition, Pakistan got a $2 billion from China. Later on, because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the IMF worsened its estimations on Pakistan's economy, and predicted that its GDP would grow minus 1.5% in 2020 and 2% in 2021.[15] The IMF also predicted that Pakistan's GDP would grow by 1.5% in 2020 and 2% in 2021.

Throughout its history, Pakistan has been a classic example of a "praetorian state", where the military dominates the political institutions and regular functioning. The political evolution is represented by a routine change "between democratic, military, or semi military regime types." There were three critical pursuits towards a democratic state that are worth mentioning, that started in 1972 and resulted in the rise of democratically elected leaders. In addition to these elections, the emergence of new political parties also took place, permitting us to make reference to Prime Minister Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).[16]

Civilian - military relations are characterized by the understanding that the military is what ensures the country's "national sovereignty and moral integrity". There resides the ambiguity: the intervention of the military regarding the institution of a democracy, and the sabotage by the same military leading it to its demise. In addition to this, to the people of Pakistan, the military has retained the impression that the government is incapable of maintaining a productive and functioning state, and is incompetent in its executing of pertaining affairs. The role of the military in Pakistani politics has hindered any hope of the country implementing a stable democracy. To say the least, the relationship between the government and the resistance is a consistent struggle.[17] The military's role in Pakistani politics has hindered any hope of the country implementing a stable democracy.

The military has extended its role today with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The involvement of the military has affected "four out of five key areas of civilian control". Decision making was an area that was to be shared by the military and the people of Pakistan, but has since turned into an opportunity for the military to exercise its control due to the fact that CPEC is not only a "corporate mega project" but also a huge economic opportunity, and the military in Pakistan continues to be the leading force in the creation of the guidelines pertaining to national defense and internal security. Furthermore, accusations of corruption have not helped; the Panama Papers were "documents [exposing] the offshore holdings of 12 current and former world leaders."[18] These findings further the belief that Pakistan's leaders are incompetent and incapable of effectively governing the country, and giving the military more of a reason to continue and increase its interference. In consequence, the involvement of civilians in policy making is declining steadily, and little by little the military seeks to achieve complete autonomy from the government, and an increased partnership with China. It is safe to say that CPEC would have been an opportunity to improve military and civilian relationships, however it seems to be an opportunity lost as it appears the military is creating a government capable of functioning as a legitimate operation.[19] The military is creating a government capable of functioning as a legitimate operation.

▲ Propaganda poster extolling the figure of Qaddafi, near Ghadames, in 2004 [Sludge G., Wikipedia].

May 11, 2020

essay / Paula Mora

On October 20, 2011, Colonel Muammar Muhamad Abu-Minyar Qaddafi was assassinated, ending a dictatorial regime that lasted more than forty years. That date signified hope, freedom and democracy, or at least those were the aspirations of many of those who contributed to change in Libya. However, the reality today, nine years later, is almost unimaginable for those rebels who on October 23, 2011 thought that their children could grow old in a democracy. The civil war that the country has been suffering since then has led to the disintegration of the nation. To understand this, it is paramount to understand the very nature of Libyan political power, totally different from that of its neighbors and its former metropolises: tribalism.

Libyan tribalism has three characteristics: it is contractual, since it is based on permanent negotiations; the territorial instructions of the peoples have been moving towards the cities, but the ties have not been loosened, and the territorial extension of these peoples exceeds the borders of Libya. The Libyan territory is made up of 90% desert, which has led to the persistence of tribal power. The native peoples have fought, and continue to fight, for territorial control and harmony of their territories, which is achieved through traditional alliances renegotiated from time to time between the three main regions of the country: Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezan.

Tuareg tropism

The Bedouin culture and its mythology from pre-colonial trans-Saharan cave times explain why Qaddafi focused his policy on the Sahara and North Africa. These peoples considered the desert as a means of communication, not as an obstacle or a border. Under the dictatorship, Berber customs and speech were protected and promoted.

The Tuareg are a Berber people of nomadic tradition spread over five African countries: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali and Niger. They have their own language and customs. In Libya, they occupy the southwestern territory, along the borders of Algeria, Tunisia and Niger. The dictator proclaimed on numerous occasions his affinity with this people, claiming even to belong to this lineage on his mother's side. He considered them allies of his Pan-Africanist project .

Qaddafi did not see himself as the leader of the movement, but as a "guide" of the revolution. However, with the passage of time, this revolutionary vision was tempered into a realistic and pacifying vision. This change was mainly due to the inability of the Tuareg to overcome internal divisions (tribes) and their willingness to abandon the armed struggle. The consequences were that what started as a national and social struggle degenerated into drug and arms trafficking.

Italian colonialism

In April 1881, France occupied Tunisia. This provoked resentment in Italy as the regency of Tunisia was intended as a natural extension of Italy, given that 55,000 Italians resided in the territory. In view of this status, and to avoid a confrontation with France, Italy then decided to create a Libyan project . In 1882, Italy, Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire created the Triple Alliance. As a consequence, France opposed Italy's Libyan project .

Faced with France's civil service examination plans in Libya, Italy sought compensation in the Red Sea and in 1886 tried, unsuccessfully, to conquer Ethiopia. But the Italian nationalism of the time was not about to give up, as it aspired to create "a greater Italy". After the Ethiopian victory, only two African alternatives remained: Morocco, which had already been practically colonized by France, or the Turkish Regency in Tripoli, which had been established since 1858.

Finally, Italy decided in favor of the latter and in 1902 sought the support of France to carry out its project. Under the Triple Alliance compromise, it offered neutrality on the shared border of the Alps in case of war and the Withdrawal to the Moroccan project . Paris was not interested, but Russia offered its support to Italy in 1908 to weaken the Ottoman Empire. Thus began the Italo-Turkish war. The Italian pretext was the alleged mistreatment of the settlers in Libya by the Turkish regime, to which it gave an ultimatum. Under Austro-Hungarian mediators, the Turks agreed to transfer control of Libya to Italy, a move that Italy considered a Turkish maneuver that only sought to gain time to prepare for war. On September 29, 1911, Italy declared war on the Ottoman Empire. This had important consequences for the Triple Alliance, as Austria-Hungary feared that the Libyan conflict would escalate into a direct conflict with the Ottoman Empire, while Germany was faced with the dilemma of having to choose sides, as it enjoyed good relations with both sides. On October 18, 1912, due to the open dangers on different fronts, the Ottoman Empire decided to sign the Treaty of Lausanne-Ouchy through which it ceded Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and the Dodecanese islands to Italy.

During World War I, Italy was part of the Triple Entente, so the Ottoman Empire did not declare war on it. The threat to Italian control of Libya was not so much among its European enemies, but among the population of the African country itself. Taking advantage of the war, the Sanûsiya (a Muslim religious order founded under the Ottoman Empire that opposed colonization) began to attack the Italian army. These rebels were gaining territory, until Italy's allies went on the offensive. On August 21, 1915, the day Italy switched to the Allied side, the tactics changed. Although also offering support, Italy's new allies were dealing with insurgencies in their colonies, and were mainly concerned with guarding their borders to prevent insurgents from getting through and spreading independence ideas.

On April 17, 1917, the emir Idris As-Sanûsi, an ally of the Ottoman Empire, realizing the proximity of the Allied victory, signed with Italy the Pact of Acroma, by which Italy recognized the autonomy of Cyrenaica and in exchange the emir accepted Italian control of Tripolitania.

 

 

Geographical distribution of ethnicities in Libya [Wikipedia].

 

Colonial independence

The Second World War played a role core topic in Africa, as it encouraged nationalism on the continent. Italy, allied with Germany, tried between 1940 and 1942 to occupy the Suez Canal through the Libyan border, but the goal was not reached.

In 1943, Libya fell into the hands of the Free France (of Charles de Gaulle) and England: the former administered Fezán; the latter, Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. At the end of the war, and with Italy changing sides in the course of the war, Italy proposed a tripartite division of Libya. The United States and the Soviet Union opposed this, and stipulated that the territory would remain under the tutelage of the United Nations (UN). Two political positions were then opposed in Libya: on the one hand, the "progressives", who defended the creation of a unitary democratic state, and on the other hand, the original peoples of Cyrenaica, who defended a kingdom whose leader would be Mohammed Idris As-Sanûsi, the leader of the Sanûsiya.

On November 21, 1949, through Resolution 289, the United Nations set the independence of Libya for January 1, 1952. Without taking into account any geographical, historical, religious, cultural and political reality, the UN imposed the birth of a sovereign country made up of the three main independent regions. In 1950, the National Assembly was elected, composed of 60 deputies (20 per region). On December 2 of the same year, after arduous negotiations, the Assembly agreed that Libya would be a federal monarchy composed of three provinces, with Mohammed Idriss As-Sanûsi as King.

Initially the Kingdom was able to establish itself given the international recognition and the finding of oil fields that allowed Libya to become the richest country on the continent. This optimism, however, concealed the fact that the real Libyan problem lay within its borders: the country was ruled by the original peoples of Cyrenaica. To balance power, the king decided to appoint Mahmoud el-Montasser, a Tripolitanian, as prime minister.

However, the king made the mistake of not having based his monarchy on the Sanûsiya, but on his tribe, the Barasa. The regime became totalitarian. After pro-Nasser demonstrations, the king banned political parties in 1952, and dismissed more than ten governors, who were replaced by prefects. As for foreign relations, under the reign of Idriss, Libya signed with Great Britain a twenty-year alliance by which the British could use the Libyan military instructions . With the United States it signed a similar one which granted permission to the Americans to build the Wheelus Field base near Tripoli. Finally, he signed a peace treaty with Italy whereby the former metropolis undertook to pay reparations as long as Libya protected the property of the 27,000 Italians still residing there. These measures brought the kingdom to its doom, since its neighboring countries and its population considered that the king was not showing solidarity with Egypt by aligning himself with the Western countries.

The fall of the monarchy

On September 1, 1969, a coup d'état took place in the country to overthrow Idriss; the latter, seriously ill, announced his abdication for the following day. The committee Commander of the Revolution (CCR), constituted by the officers who had brought about this change of government, abolished the monarchy and proclaimed the Libyan Arab Republic. The military board that established itself in power was composed of a dozen members, mostly from the two main original peoples: the Warfalla and the Maghara. The latter were of Marxist ideology, which led to the regime of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.

During the first weeks of government, the new leaders tried to take all possible precautions to avoid British and American intervention. They issued a statement guaranteeing the safety of foreigners' property and promising that the oil companies would not be nationalized. In view of these declarations, which were not in line with communism, the United States and the West recognized the new government on September 6.

The real intentions of the new government appeared soon after. Within a month of statement, the Libyan authorities announced that previous treaties relating to the military instructions would have to be renegotiated. They also called for a renegotiation of the taxation of oil companies. Finally, in 1971, a single party was created: the Arab Socialist Union.

Qaddafi's government

On April 15, 1973, almost four years after the coup of 69, Gaddafi pronounced a speech in which he invited the "popular masses" to retake the power seized by the party of the Arab Socialist Union. He imposed himself as head of the country, promoting a cultural and political revolution that proposed, on the one hand, a reform of the institutions with a stricter application of the precepts of the sharia, and on the other hand, the idea that the aggressors of the people were the Arab countries allied with the West and Israel.

Gaddafi based his power on a profound tribal recomposition. The first measure he took, the day after taking power, distrustful of Cyrenaica and its tribes loyal to King Idriss, was to form an alliance with the people of Hada, with which he sought to balance the power of the Barasa.

Secondly, he divorced his wife, of Turkish-Kouloughli origin, who constituted an obstacle to the alliances with the peoples that were necessary for him to expand his power base. He then married a Firkeche woman, a segment of the Barasa tribe. This marriage allowed him to build an alliance between the Qadhafa and the great tribes of Cyrenaica linked to the Barasa.

Third, he also built an alliance with the Misrata, a literate elite that subsequently occupied many of the regime's posts. However, over time, this alliance broke down and led to a growth of hatred towards the colonel that would play an important role in the revolution that brought down Qaddafi.

Fourthly, after having lost Misrata, Gaddafi recomposed his strategy by relying on his own confederation, that of the Awlad Sulaymans, enemies of Misrata since the time of Italian rule. This alliance covered the city of Tripoli and geographically extended the territory of the ruler.

Fifthly, the ruler's problem would be the result of the previous points: tribal alliances. Fractions of his allies conspired against him in 1973 to attempt a coup d'état. Gaddafi's army, however, prevented it and condemned the ringleaders to death. From this point on, the colonel began to distrust the tribes of this region, Tripolitania, and gradually began to break off relations with them. This would prove fatal to him.

Qaddafi facing the world

International activism under Gaddafi sought the fusion of the Arab peoples with the goal to create a transnational caliphate. In 1972, although he did not yet control the whole of Libyan territory, he contributed to the creation of the Union of Arab Republics (Libya, Egypt and Syria), which was dissolved in 1977. In 1984, he created the Libyan-Moroccan Union, which would disappear two years later. Four other attempts were made: with Tunisia in 1974, with Chad in 1981, with Algeria in 1988 and with Sudan in 1990; none of them succeeded. These attempts at union caused tensions on the continent, especially with Egypt, with which there was a border conflict from July 21 to 24, 1977. As a result, the mutual border was closed until March 1989.

As for the rest of the world, the dictator's support for terrorist movements during the 1980s made him enemies, especially the United States, Great Britain and France. committee Several attacks by the Libyan regime, such as the downing of an American plane over the Scottish town of Lockerbie and the assassination of ambassadors, led the UN Security Council in 1992 to adopt a policy of trade and financial sanctions and embargoes. Added to this was the socialist orientation of the colonel, who nationalized the oil companies and the assets of Italian residents on the grounds that they had been stolen during the colonial era.

The fall of the regime

As time went by, the regime lost power and national support. This decline was due to the march of the Economics, as the citizens benefited from the direct income from hydrocarbons: health care and Education were free, and agriculture was subsidized. In addition, there was the project to create a 4,000-kilometer "Great Man Made River" (GMMR). At summary, the five million inhabitants had an exceptional life, with a GDP per capita of 3,000 euros in 2011.

The main civil service examination came from Islamic milieus, more specifically from the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist groups (Sunni Islamic ultra-right movement), who from 1995 onwards were radicalized by the financial aid groups from Afghanistan. Their reasons for opposing Gaddafi were the westernization of the country: leaving behind to some extent the Tuareg tropism and a turn towards the countries of the North. That same year an Islamist rebellion broke out, initiated by the Front for the Liberation of Libya in Cyrenaica. Qaddafi responded with a major crackdown, establishing anti-Islamic laws that punished anyone who did not denounce the Islamists and the closure of most zawiya (religious schools and monasteries), especially those of the Sanûsiya.

In 2003, Libya acknowledged its involvement in the Lockerbie bombing and undertook to compensate all victims. This led to the lifting of sanctions by the UN Security Council committee . In December of the same year, the country renounced the production of weapons of mass destruction and in 2004 acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. With these new measures, the regime began to ally itself with Western countries, which in turn promoted the industrialization of the country. One example was the treaty signed between Gaddafi and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, whereby Italy undertook to reimburse Libya $5 billion over a 25-year period, provided that the African country opened up to the Italian market and avoided illegal immigration to Europe.

Libya did not experience "the Arab Spring", as it was suffering from a civil war born in Cyrenaica, which began as an uprising of a Berber minority living near the border with Tunisia. Qaddafi, fearful of spoiling the good image he had finally managed to build in the international community, decided not to use military force to re-establish his power in Cyrenaica, but as time went on he had no choice but to do so. This action led to what he already knew: international outcry.

The first country to oppose was Nicolas Sarkozy's France. Under the pretext of humanitarian interference, France, together with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries, decided to destroy the Qaddafi regime. In March 2011 they recognized the committee Transitional National (CNT). The African Union also wanted the change of government, but nevertheless advocated that this should be done through negotiation, in order to avoid negative consequences such as the disintegration of the state. 

During the month of February 2011, the colonel had to face a triple uprising. In Cyrenaica, by the jihadists (remember the anti-Islamic laws), who were also supported by Turkey and the local mafias, who felt threatened by the Italian-Libyan agreement on migration. In Tripolitania, by the Berbers, who now saw their identity denied in favor of the defense of Arab nationalism. Finally, also in Misrata, the zone had an account staff to settle with the dictator since 1975 (tribal conflict).

Gaddafi took preventive measures, such as banning demonstrations or suspending sporting events, and announced social reforms favorable to the population, thinking that these were grievances that would not transcend. His error of analysis was to think that the protest had a social motive, while its reasons were tribal, regional, political and religious subject .

The government was able to control the status for a month, until on February 15 the violence escalated into a full-blown civil war.

Foreign interference began on March 17, when the French Minister of Foreign Affairs promoted at the UN Security committee Resolution 1973, which authorized the creation of a no-fly zone over Libya, as well as the imposition of "necessary measures" to grant protection to civilians. This resolution excluded land occupation, and was supported by the Arab League, with military air support from Qatar.

A few days later, on March 21, the intervention of NATO countries went beyond the guidelines of Resolution 1973, as Qaddafi's residency program was bombed under the pretext that it served as a command center. The African Union, supported by Russia, then called for the "immediate cessation of all hostilities". For its part, the Arab League reminded NATO that it was deviating from its stated objectives. However, the Western countries paid no heed. On March 31, through his son Saif al-Islam, the colonel proposed a referendum on the establishment of democracy in Libya. NATO was willing to consider his proposals, but the National Transitional committee was strongly opposed, demanding simply the departure of Gaddafi from power.

On September 16, the committee Security Council, through Resolution 2009, created the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) mission statement . Its goal was attend to the national authorities for the restoration of security and the rule of law, through the promotion of political dialogue and national reconciliation.

The "liberation" of the country took place on October 23, 2011, when Qaddafi was captured on his way to Fezzan, accompanied by his son. His convoy was attacked by NATO air forces. He was taken prisoner and subsequently lynched by his compatriots. The president of the National Transitional committee , Mustapha Adbel Jalil, then proclaimed himself the new legitimate ruler of the country until new elections.

Libya after Gaddafi

The transitional president declared on his first day that Sharia would be the basis of the Constitution as well as the law, reestablished polygamy and outlawed divorce. The consequences of the civil war were tremendous: they led to the disintegration of the country. Qaddafi's death did not mark the end of the conflict, as the tribal, regional and religious militias that participated in the war defended different visions of what the new government should be like, making unification impossible.

Externally, territorial decontrol changed the geopolitics of the Sahara-Sahel region, offering new opportunities to jihadists.

Three periods can be distinguished. The first, between 2011 and 2013, could be considered as the time of uncertainty, but also the time of democratic hope and illusion. Despite wars between different peoples over different ideologies (defenders of the old regime against Muslim fundamentalists defending Islamic traditions) and a territorial proxy war (Cyrenaica against Tripolitania for the capital of the new state), what appeared to be democratic mechanisms were being put in place.

On October 31, 2011, Abdel Rahim al-Keeb, originally from Tripoli, was elected Prime Minister of the transitional government by 26 votes out of 51. Legislative elections took place on July 7, 2012; they were won by the congress General National (CNG), which replaced the committee Transitional National . But the status was far from consolidating. On September 11, 2012, the American ambassador, John Chistropher Stevens was assassinated by a Salafist group called Ansar al-Sharia.

The second period began in early 2013. Libya was on the path to normalization through democratic elections and the reactivation of oil and gas exports. However, the following year saw the beginning of lawlessness and attempts to recompose internal order. The "democratic advances" had not been enough, as the regions had a great deal of autonomy and there was no border security. No one had been able to control Libyan territory in its entirety. The President of Chad, Idriss Déby, who had already warned about these consequences at the time of the Western intervention in the civil war, called the new Libyan status a "Somalization".

From February 2014 onwards, this lawlessness resulted in a series of resignations of "government" officials due to threats by the various militias in the country and protests in front of the NGC, as the government was not dissolved after the expiration of the mandate. On February 20, elections were held for the 60 members of the Constituent Assembly that was to goal draft a new constitution, but only 15% of the voters participated. Meanwhile, on March 6, in Rome, at the lecture International on Libya, the Italian Foreign Minister considered that the main problem was the "overlapping of legitimacy".

The third period, took place at the end of 2014, when the so-called "second Libyan war" started. From 2015 onwards, the Islamic State entered the scene, which changed the Libyan political picture. The UN created a transitional executive body called the Government of agreement National (GNA for short), with the goal to steer Libyan politics in this new status. It was formed by the union of the congress National General and the House of Representatives. It is composed of 32 ministers, and Fayez-al Sarraj holds the position of president of the Presidential committee and prime minister of the GNA.

Libya then found itself with two parliaments, one in Tripoli, under the control of the Islamists, and the other, recognized by the international community, in Tobruk, Cyrenaica, near the Egyptian border, which had been forced to desist from action by jihadist forces. This led to the start of another conflict, which is still ongoing today. In Cyrenaica, a confused and multiform war is taking place, involving jihadists and supporters of General Khalifa Haftar, who leads the Libyan National Army (LNA) and opposes both the jihadists and the agreement National Government. Through his army, the general launched air strikes against Islamist groups in Benghazi in May, with the goal aim of seizing the parliament. He also accuses Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg of cooperating with Islamist groups. In June, Maiteg resigned after the Supreme Court ruled that his appointment was illegal.

In 2014, Haftar launched "Operation Dignity" against the Islamists, trying to remove from power Colonel Moktar Fernana, commander of the military police and elected by Misrata and the Muslim Brotherhood. This mission statement failed due to the power of the different Muslim militias throughout the territory of Tripolitania, divided into different areas: there is the city of Misrata, which is jihadist territory under the command of the Muslim Brotherhood; to the West, the Arabic-speaking Berber militia of Zenten reigns; in the capital, the Islamist militia Farj Lybia is in control, while Fezzan and the Great South have become almost autonomous territories, where the Tuareg are fought.

In June 2014, parliamentary elections took place. The Islamist parties were defeated, there was a leave turnout due to insecurity and the boycott of the dominant parties, and a confrontation emerged between the forces loyal to the CNT and those of the new Parliament or House of Representatives (HoR). Finally, the National Salvation Government emerged, with Nouri Absuhamain, an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, as president.

In July, national security deteriorated severely following several events. Tripoli International Airport was destroyed due to conflicts between the Misrata militia and its Dawa Libya operation against the Zintan militia; the HoR moved to Tobruk after the Tripoli Supreme Court (composed of the NTC) dissolved it; the NTC voted itself a replacement for the House of Representatives; Asar al-Sharia moved to control Benghazi; and UN envoys left the country due to increasing insecurity.

On January 29, 2015, the LNA and its Tripoli allies declared a ceasefire following the "Libyan Dialogue" organized by the UN in Geneva to encourage reconciliation between the different sides. On December 17 of the same year, the Libyan Political agreement , or agreement Skhirat, promoted by UNSMIL, took place. Its goal was to resolve the dispute between the legitimate House of Representatives, based in Tobruk and al-Bayda, and the NTC, based in Tripoli. A 9-member Presidency committee was created to form a unity government that in two years would lead to elections. The HoR was to be the sole parliament and would act as such until the elections.

On March 30, 2016, the GNA arrived in Tripoli by sea due to the air blockade. The settlement of the legitimate government prompted the UN to return to the territory after two years in April. In addition, the GNA, together with U.S. air forces, liberated Sirte from ISIS in December 2016. However, the LNA continued to gain territory, counting in September with the control of the eastern oil terminals.

In July 2017, the LNA drove ISIS out of Benghazi. A year later, it controlled Derna, the last western territory under terrorist groups. On December 17, Haftar declared the Libyan Political agreement null and void, as elections had not taken place, highlighting the obsolescence of the UN-created Libyan government. The general then began to gain traction in the national and international context: "All the institutions created under this agreement are null and void, as they have not obtained full legitimacy. Libyans feel that they have lost their patience and that the promised period of peace and stability has become a distant fantasy," Haftar declared.

April 19, 2019 was the date on which the Libyan National lecture was to be held in Ghadamas to advance agreements and close a date on which the presidential and parliamentary elections would be held. However, days before the convening of lecture was cancelled due to the LNA's "Operation Dignity Flood" with the goal of the "liberation" of the country.

 

 

Correlation of forces in the Libyan civil war, February 2016 [Wikipedia].

 

Foreign interference

The current Libyan status is worrying. The international community fears that the country could become the next Syria. The National Liberation Army, led by Haftar, is supported by the United Arab Emirates, hoping to stop the advance of the Muslim Brotherhood, which it considers a terrorist organization. It is also supported by Egypt and Russia, interested in controlling the country's energy resources. The Government of agreement National, with Fayez al-Sarraj as leader, represents the legitimate government for the international community (the UN recognizes it). Moreover, it is supported by the US and EU countries (except France), as well as Turkey and Qatar, which provide military support (especially the Turks). However, the United States and the EU defend the maritime borders of Greece and Israel against the Turkish desire project to build gas pipelines across the Mediterranean to supply itself.

The rapprochement between Haftar and France began in 2015. The European country tried to transform the LNA into a legitimate actor by assisting him with clandestine operatives, special forces and advisors. On July 20, 2016, Holland's France officially declared its military support for him after the killing of three French special forces soldiers in Benghazi at the hands of the GNA, which argued that it was a "violation of its national sovereignty." On July 25, 2019, the Paris Summit took place. Macron invited the two leaders to dialogue on peace and unity. France's greatest interest is to eradicate terrorism.

On March 6, 2019, the Abu Dhabi agreement brought together the leaders of the most important sides in the Libyan war and emphasized several aspects: Libya as marital status, shortening of the transitional period of government, unification of state institutions (such as the Central Bank), cessation of hatred and its incitement, holding presidential and parliamentary elections by the end of the year, peaceful transfer of power, separation of powers and UN follow-up of the agreed points. The location of the meeting sample the strong involvement of the United Arab Emirates in this war, especially as an ally of General Haftar. The Persian Gulf country denied support for the attack in Tripoli that took place on March 31, 2020 by the LNA. However, several Libyan media outlets stated that two military cargo planes arrived at the Emirati Al-Khadim airbase in the east of the Libyan city of Marj from Abu Dhabi's Sweihan airbase.

On November 27, 2019, the agreement Maritime Border between the GNA and Turkey took place. Turkish President Erdogan and Fayez al-Sarraj signed two memorandums of understanding. They agreed on an 18.6 nautical mile limit, as a shared maritime border between Turkey and Libya and signed a military cooperation agreement whereby Ankara would send soldiers and weaponry. Instead of creating a new troop, which would take longer, Turkey offered a salary of $200 a month to fight in Libya as opposed to the $75 it gave for fighting in Syria.

The problem with the maritime border is that it ignores the islands of Cyprus and Greece and violates their rights under the 1994 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, although neither country has gone to the Law of the Sea Tribunal. The Turkish interest lies in the possibility of the presence of oil and natural gas off the southern coast of Crete. The agreement will for the time being last as long as the GNA lasts, in a status of instability to which the unpopularity of the military intervention in Turkey also contributes.

On January 2, 2020, the presidents of Algeria and Tunisia met with Khalifa Haftar. The Algerian President, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, insisted that the solution to the Libyan problem must be internal and not depend on the influx of arms brought about by foreign interference. He proposed the creation of new institutions allowing the organization of general elections and the establishment of the new instructions of the Libyan democratic state with the approval of the UN.

On January 6, the LNA took control of Sirte. This city is strategic as it is close to Libya's "average oil moon", a coastal strip where several important oil export terminals are located.

On January 12, Russia and Turkey declared a truce in Syria and Libya. This agreement was a quid pro quo, since Russia has greater interests in Syria than in Libya, as it seeks a port in the Mediterranean, and Turkey, as explained above, wishes to build a gas supply system across the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. However, the agreement is not being fulfilled, especially in the Libyan scenario. UN envoys allege that both countries continue to provide weaponry to the guerrillas.

On January 19 took place the lecture of Berlin, which constituted an attempt to appease the status of the country. The United States, Russia, Germany, France, Italy, China, Turkey and Algeria participated and expressed their commitment to put an end to political and military interference in the country. Without the intervention of third parties, the country would not be able to sustain a civil war because none of the sides has sufficient strength. On the lecture, the non-compliance with the arms embargo established by the UN Security committee in 2011 was also discussed. The problem is that no power, especially Turkey and Russia, acknowledges their involvement, so there are no responsibilities and no sanctions.

A week later the first violation of the pact took place. As for the truce, the Haftar government, with the goal to regain the capital, launched an offensive in the direction of the city of Misrata, where an important base of the National agreement government is located. In addition, the UN Special mission statement in Libya (UNSMIL) stated that material continues to reach the fighting sides by air.

On March 31, the European Union launched "Operation Irini" ("peace" in Greek). It replaces the 2015 "Operation Sophia", which had goal to combat human trafficking off the Libyan coast. The new operation has changed its main goal , as it will fight to enforce the arms embargo. In addition, it has other secondary tasks such as the control of oil smuggling, the continuation of the training of Libyan coastguards and the control of human trafficking through intelligence gathering with the use of air patrols. This initiative is born above all by Italy, the first country to which Libyan refugees arrive and therefore concerned about immigration. This leadership is manifested in the development of the operation, since the headquarters is in Rome and the operational direction is at position of Italian Rear Admiral Fabio Agostini. For the time being, it has a duration of one year.

On April 5, the UN called for a cessation of hostilities to combat Covid-19. It called for a humanitarian truce involving not only the national sides but also foreign forces. The virus claimed the life of Mahmoud Jibril, former prime minister and leader of the rebellion against Gaddafi.

New regional geopolitics and conclusion

We can define the new Libyan geopolitics through the following points. First, the spread of arms throughout the Sahara-Sahel region, the area of old and current conflicts. Secondly, the border threat felt by Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia due to the internal conflict. Finally, the disinterest of the new Libyan authorities in the Greater South, as it has practically become independent, controlling almost all trade through the Sahara. Al-Qaeda, through subgroups such as Fajr Lybia, is trying to establish an Islamic State of North Africa imitating that of Iraq. To this end, in the conquered areas, Daesh destroys the tribal paradigm by liquidating the tribal chiefs who do not want to ally with them with the goal to terrorize the rest. It is through these practices that all jihadist militias were able to ally themselves at the end of 2015. Faced with this, the United Nations sponsored as Prime Minister Fayez Sarrraj, who was installed in Tripoli in April 2016. 

Libya is a privileged state in terms of natural wealth. However, in its history it has suffered a lot and continues to do so. It has gone through monarchies, colonization and dictatorships until finally becoming today a failed state. Its political structure is complicated, as it is tribal, and that is why none of the political systems has succeeded completely because it has not been able to harmonize the internal organizations. Today the country consists of three rival governments and hundreds of militias and armed groups that continue to compete for power and control of territory, trade routes and strategic military sites. For the status to be resolved, the countries actively involved in the conflict (Russia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Qatar) need to comply with the UN arms embargo. In addition, foreign powers must increase their understanding of the country to be successful in bringing about the best possible solution. Even if Libya is on the verge of becoming the next Syria, there are still opportunities to save status and give the country what it has long lacked: stability.

 

REFERENCES

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Al Jazeera, A. (April 3, 2020,). Workers in Libya struggle under oil blockade. 

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Andrew Seger (2018). Can Libya's Division be healed? Section: Middle East and North Africa, subsection: Libya.

Assad, A. (2020). Attacks on civilians in Tripoli continue as Haftar receives more support from UAE.. The Libya Observer.

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BBC World (2020). Libya: why so many international powers are involved in the North African nation. BBC - Section: News World.

Bernand Lugan (2016). Histoire de l'Afrique du Nord. Monaco: Rocher.

Daniel Rosselló (2016). The Libyan Tuaregs: the fighters without a homeland. Think Tank el Órden Mundial - Section: Politics and Society - Subsection: Middle East and Maghreb.

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Joanna Apap (2017). Political developments in Libya and prospects of stability.. European Parliament Think Tank. Section: Foreign Affairs, subsection: briefing.

Kali Robinson (2020). What's at stake in Libya's War? Council on Foreign Relations. Section: Middle East and North Africa, subsection: Libya.

Karim Mezran - Emily Burchfield (2020). The context of today's Libya crisis and what to watch for. Think Tank Atlantic Council. Section: Politics and Diplomacy - Security and Defense, subsection: Libya.

La Vanguardia (2020). Haftar breaks truce in Libya and UN says embargo violated. La Vanguardia - Section: international.

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María Paz López (2020). No more military interference in Libya. La Vanguardia - Section: International.

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[Joseph S. Nye. Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump.. Oxford University Press. New York, 2020. 254 pp]

review / Emili J. Blasco

The question that serves as degree scroll for the new book by Jospeh Nye, known to the general public for having coined the expression soft poweris not a concession to secularized thinking, but rather a lack of boldness to assert from entrance the convenience of ethical reflection in foreign policy decisions, an importance that, despite the question mark, is intuitively defended by the author.

In fact, the question, in itself, is an approach core topic in the discipline of international relations. A common approach is to see the world scenario as a conjunction of states that fight among themselves, in an anarchic dynamic where the law of the strongest prevails. Internally, the state can move according to criteria of the common good, attending to the different needs of its inhabitants and making decisions at the national or local level through democratic processes. But beyond its own borders, does the legitimacy granted by its own voters not require the president to guarantee the security of its citizens against external threats and to safeguard the national interest against that of other states?

The fact that the state is the basic subject in international relations marks, of course, a dividing line between the two spheres. And therefore the question of whether the ethical discernment demanded of the leader in the domestic sphere should also be demanded of him in the foreign sphere is fully pertinent.

Only from extreme positions that consider that the state is a wolf for the state, applying the Hobbesian principle to international order (disorder) (and here there would be no supra-state to discipline this tendency of the state-individual), can it be defended that amorality governs all against all. On a lower rung is the so-called offensive realism and, on a lower rung, defensive realism.

Nye, a scholar of international relations, believes that realist theory is a good starting point for any president when defining a country's foreign policy, given that he must be guided especially by the ethics of responsibility, as he fulfills a "fiduciary role." "The first moral duty of a president is that of a trustee, and this begins with ensuring the survival and security of the democracy that elected him." But from here it should also be explored what possibilities exist for partnership and international mutual benefit, not closing the door to approaches of liberalism or cosmopolitanism from entrance .

"When survival is at stake, realism is a necessary basis for a moral foreign policy, though not sufficient," says Nye, for whom it is a "question of Degree". "Since there is never perfect security, the moral question is what Degree security should be assured before other values such as welfare, identity or rights become part of a president's foreign policy." He adds, "Many of the most difficult moral decisions are not all or nothing [...] The difficult moral decisions are in the middle. While it is important to be cautious about the dangers of a slippery slope, moral decisions rest on matching ends and means with each other." He concludes that "the maintenance of international institutions and regimes is part of moral leadership".

From the very beginning of the book, Nye uses the three conditions that have traditionally been used in moral treatises to judge an action as ethically good: that the intention, the means and the consequences are good at the same time.

Using these three scales, the author analyzes the foreign policy of each of the U.S. presidents since World War II and establishes a final ranking in which he combines both the morality of their actions on the international scene and the effectiveness of their policies (because an ethical foreign policy may be the case, but one that does little to further a country's national interests).

Thus, of the fourteen presidents, he considers the four with the best grade in that combination to be Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower and Bush I. In the middle he places Reagan, Kennedy, Ford, Carter, Clinton and Obama. And as the four worst he mentions Johnson, Nixon, Bush II and ("tentatively for incompleteness") Trump. Having made the ranking, Nye warns that he may have given precedence to the Democratic administrations for which he worked.

The book is a quick review of the foreign policy of each presidency, highlighting the presidents' doctrines, their successes and failures (as well as examining the ethical component), so it is also interesting as a succinct history of U.S. international relations over the past eighty years.

The aspect of morality perhaps lacks a greater academic foundation, since it is a discipline especially studied since the scholastic era. But Nye's purpose was not intended to delve into this subject, but to offer a brief study of applied morality.

Reading Nye is always thought-provoking. Among other reflections he makes, one might highlight the idea of the new prospects that would have opened up for the world if particularly propitious times had coincided in the calendar. In particular, he suggests that if Brezhnev and his gerontocratic generation had left earlier and the USSR had also been beset by serious economic problems earlier, Gorbachev might have come to power coinciding with Carter's presidency; what they would have achieved together is, however, the realm of speculation.

▲ A view of the Badshahi Mosque, in Lahore, capital of the Punjab province [Pixabay].

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS REPORT / Naomi Moreno, Alejandro Puigrefagut, Ignacio Yárnoz

 

Download the document [pdf. 1.4MB]

 

May 2020

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report has been aimed at examining the future prospects for Pakistan in the 2025 horizon in relation to other States and to present various scenarios through a prospective strategic analysis.

The research draws upon the fact that, despite the relatively short space of time, Pakistan is likely to undergo several important changes in its international affairs and thus feel forced to rethink its foreign policy. This strategic analysis suggests there could be considerable estrangement between the U.S. and Pakistan and, therefore, the American influence will decrease considerably. Their security alliance could terminate, and Pakistan would cease to be in U.S.' sphere of influence. Moreover, with the new BRI and CPEC projects, China could move closer to Pakistan and finally become its main partner in the region. The CPEC is going to become a vital instrument for Pakistan, so it could significantly increase Chinese influence. Yet, the whole situation risks jeopardizing Pakistan's sovereign independence.

India-Pakistan longstanding dispute over Kashmir seems to be stagnated and will possibly remain as such in the following years. India has taken steps to annex its administered territory in Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan could potentially follow. The possibility of an open conflict and a nuclear standoff remains possible as both nuclear powers have very different strategies and conceptions which could lead to misinterpretation and a nuclear escalation. 

In the quest to rethink its foreign policy, the U.S.-Taliban peace and the empowerment of the group has come as a bolt from the sky for Pakistan. Through its ties with the Taliban, Pakistan could gain itself a major presence in the region namely by reaching out to Central Asia and advance its interest to curtail India's influence. Amid a dire economic crisis, with regards to the Saudi Iranian Cold War, Pakistan could seek a way in which it can recalibrate its stance in favor of the resource-rich Saudi alliance while it appeases sectarian groups who could strongly oppose this potential policy.

 Pakistan ought to acknowledge that significant changes ought to be made in both the national and international sphere and that decisive challenges lay ahead.