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Entries with Categories Global Affairs World order, diplomacy and governance .

June 15, 2021

WORKING PAPER / Jon Paris Oses, Jokin de Carlos Sola and Túlio Dias de Assis

ABSTRACT

South Korea finds itself in the middle of the geopolitical ambitions of regional giants, while at the same time addressing their own conflictive relationship with their northern counterpart. Because of that, a global and also a peninsular overview of their characteristics from an international relations perspective has been analysed, with the objective in mind of identifying the main dynamics and driving factors that strategically influence South Korea in the present times with an eye into the future. Pursuing that analysis, a global perspective and an inter-Korean perspective were suitable to better address the main issues, with special attention to the influence of the two big powers in relation with Seoul, the US and China, as well as the constant uncertainty North Korea generates in the relations between both Koreas. Findings regarding key aspects such as the US military presence in South Korean soil, or the possibility of a Korean reunification suggest the primacy of continuity and controlled stability for the next ten years, as the stakes are too high for the actors involved to take high-risk high-benefit decisions. The main conclusions follow the same direction, with stagnation as present condition South Korea will have to find its way, always with the inter-Korean relations in mind, if it wants to survive and develop its own path under the shadow of two giants.

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Categories Global Affairs: Asia World order, diplomacy and governance Documents by work

[Pablo Pérez López, Charles de Gaulle, el estadista rebelde (Ciudadela: Madrid, 2020), 218 pp.]

review / Jairo Císcar

Coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the death of Charles de Gaulle and the 75th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II, Professor Pablo Pérez López publishes this new biography of "the most illustrious of the French", as he is sometimes referred to. When one undertakes the writing of a biography, and even more so when it is about a character about whom an infinite number of books and articles have been written, one runs the risk of becoming diluted in what has gone before and not contributing anything new. However, this volume presents the character from a different perspective: his rebelliousness. Rebelliousness understood as a struggle for what is believed to be just, as an active nonconformism that pushes to overcome mediocrity, as love and service to France in its darkest moments. Precisely, I believe that this is one of the greatest achievements of the book: to present, in barely 200 pages and with a kind and direct style, a new portrait of the French general, who is praised -beyond the excusable chiaroscuros of every person- as a model to follow and an example of bravery that counts with full actuality.

The book presents De Gaulle's life chronologically, from his childhood to his death. It is essential, in order to understand the great man he would later become, to analyze his early life. We are presented with a restless and dreamy young man, a devout Christian from a very early age. A young man who, at the age of 14, discovered a vocation, that of military life, which would mark his whole life and the lives of millions of his compatriots, and who would apply himself to it to the point of becoming a leader A . Also noteworthy in the book is the extensive use of passages from his memoirs or handwritten texts of the protagonist, which reveal the most unknown facet of the character: his psyche, his love, his devotion, his rebelliousness. Because it must be emphasized that sample is a self-conscious (but not overbearing) De Gaulle who is clear that he has a mission statement.

We soon move on to introduce the then captain, who stood out during the Great War for his wise analysis and foresight, whose love for France never clouded his judgment when it came to pointing out his own and others' failures. A young man who, despite the humiliation of being taken prisoner (despite his heroic efforts that earned him the Legion of Honor), never ceased to learn and examine the enemy, taking advantage of every moment of his 32 months of captivity.

His evolution is followed after the Great War, already as a promising member of Petáin's entourage. But not everything is success. De Gaulle's life is traced in the greatness of men who know how to overcome difficulties. Perhaps the most special, and where his true character is appreciated, is in the life of his daughter Anne, who suffered from Down syndrome, and with whom De Gaulle developed an extraordinary bond and closeness. It was with her that the thoughtful general dressed as an affable and affectionate father.

This training of his character seems to me essential to understand the rest of the book, and therefore the rest of his life. Without wanting to end up making a complete summary of the volume (which, as mentioned above, covers his entire life, with special and necessary emphasis on his "political life"), I felt it necessary to reflect the singular proposal and goal of this book, which is none other than to show that more unknown side of the French general, that rebelliousness and nonconformism that pushed him to have a very important weight in the creation of the current form of the French Republic and whose imprint, 50 years after his death, is still alive in Europe and in French politics.

Personally, I was very attracted to the style and organization of the writing. It makes the proposal enjoyable and easy to read, while at the same time a very serious and profound work , which invites constant reflection. sample the intimacy and loneliness of a man faced with the incomprehension of his contemporaries, with respect to whom he was always ahead. A man who, in final, always put the greater good, his beloved France, before his own good. An expert tankman who knew how to lead his country in such different moments: the Free French government in London, the parade on the Champs Elysées, the revolt of Algiers, the birth of the Fifth French Republic, May '68 and his last resignation, as a man of honor, after losing the referendum on the Senate and the regions that he called, in one of his last acts of rebellion, against all his advisors.

Finally, De Gaulle was a rebel until death, refusing any state funeral and resting, together with his beloved daughter, in a small French village. His tombstone - which simply reads: Charles de Gaulle, 1890-1970 - merely shows his final rebellion. The man died, but the myth was born.

Categories Global Affairs: European Union World order, diplomacy and governance Book reviews

[Juan Tovar Ruiz, La doctrina en la política exterior de Estados Unidos: De Truman a Trump ( Madrid: Catarata, 2017) 224 pages.]

review / Xabier Ramos Garzón

Every change in the White House leads to an analysis of the outgoing president's policies and to speculation about the policies of the incoming president. Given the weight of the United States in the world, the vision on international affairs of each administration is decisive for the world order. Juan Tovar Ruiz, professor of International Relations at the University of Burgos, deals in this book with the essence of the foreign policy of each president - mainly from Truman to Trump (Biden's, logically, is yet to be defined) - which in many cases follows a defined road map that has come to be called "doctrine".

Among the book's strengths are the fact that it combines several points of view: on the one hand, it covers, from the realist point of view, the structural and internal effects of each policy, and on the other, it analyzes the ideas and interactions between actors taking into account the constructivist point of view. The author explores the decision-making processes and their consequences, considers the ultimate effectiveness of American doctrines in the general context of international relations, and examines the influences, ruptures and continuities between different doctrines over time. Despite the relatively short history of the United States, the country has had an extensive and complex foreign policy which Tovar, focusing on the last eight decades, synthesizes with special merit, adopting a mainly general point of view that highlights the substantive.

The book is divided into seven chapters, organized by historical stages and, within each, by presidents. The first chapter, by way of introduction, covers the period following U.S. independence until the end of World War II. This stage is sample as an antecedent core topic in the future American ideology, with two particularly determining positions: the Monroe Doctrine and Wilsonian Idealism. The second chapter deals with the First Cold War, with the Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson doctrines. Throughout the chapter the different postulates are contextualized and the issues that were core topic in the creation of doctrines that only affected the foreign policy of the moment, but were imbricated in the core of American political thought are pointed out. The third chapter deals with the Distension, the period between 1969 and 1979 in which the doctrines of Nixon and Carter took place. The fourth chapter takes us to the Second Cold War and the end of the US-USSR confrontation, a time when we find the doctrines of Reagan and Bush senior. From this point, the following chapters (fifth, sixth and seventh) deal with the Post-Cold War period, with the doctrines of Clinton, Bush junior and the most recent ones - therefore still subject to study - of Obama and Trump.

In the conclusions the author summarizes each of the chapters on the basis of academic or political characterizations and makes some qualifications, such as warning that in his opinion Obama's foreign policy is rather a "non-doctrine", since it combines elements of different ideologies and is partly contradictory. Obama dealt with various conflicts in different ways: he dealt realistically with "wars of necessity" (Afghanistan) and agreement with the liberal internationalist approach to conflicts such as Libya. Although the flexibility carried out by Obama may be considered a weakness by some, as he did not follow a firm and marked policy, it can also be seen as the necessary adaptation to a continuously changing environment. There are many occasions when a U.S. president, such as Bush Jr. has pursued a rigid foreign policy, ideologically speaking, that ultimately written request achieved little practical success.

Another example of a variant of the conventional doctrine that sample the author is the "anti-doctrine" carried out by Trump. Whoever was president until 2021 executed a policy characterized by numerous contradictions and variations with respect to the role that the US had been exercising in the world, thereby casting doubts and uncertainties on the expected performance of the American superpower. This was due to Trump's political inexperience, both domestically and domestically, which caused concern not only among international actors but also in the core of Washington itself.

From the analysis of the different doctrines presented in the book, we can see how each one of them is adapted to a specific social, historical and political context, and at the same time they all respond to a shared political tradition of a country that, as a superpower, manifests certain constants when it comes to maintaining peace and guaranteeing security. But these constants should not be confused with universal aspects, since each country has its own particularities and specific interests: simply adapting U.S. positions to the foreign policy plans of other countries can lead to chaotic failures if these differences are not recognized.

For example, countries such as Spain, which depend on membership of the European Union, would not be able to enter into random wars unilaterally as the United States has done. However, Spain could adopt some elements, such as in subject of decision making, since this subject of doctrines greatly facilitates objectifying and standardizing the processes of analysis and resolutions.

Categories Global Affairs: North America World order, diplomacy and governance Book reviews

WORKING PAPER / Jokin de Carlos Sola

ABSTRACT

During and after the fall of the Soviet Block the three countries of Germany, Denmark and Sweden saw an opportunity to increase their influence on the region that centuries before they had possessed. They did this through diplomatic support of the opposition and communication strategies and once the new countries were either independent or liberal democracies, they used their economic and political power to attract them. This was done by buying and investing in the new privatized assets of these countries, soft power and in some cases diplomatic pressure. By this way Germany, Sweden and Denmark did not only got new investment hubs and markets for their products but also support in the Governance of the European Union.

 

 

 

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Categories Global Affairs: European Union World order, diplomacy and governance Documents by work

First high-level U.S.-China meeting of the Biden era, held in Alaska on March 18, 2021 [State Dept].

 

essay / Ramón Barba

President Joe Biden is cautiously building his Indo-Pacific policy, seeking to build an alliance with India on which to build an order to counter the rise of China. Following his entrance in the White House, Biden has kept the focus on this region, albeit with a different approach than the Trump Administration. While it is true that the main goal is still to contain China and defend free trade, Washington is opting for a multilateral approach that gives greater prominence to QUAD[1] and takes special care of the relationship with India. As the standard-bearer of the free world and democracy, the Biden Administration seeks to renew US leadership in the world and particularly in this crucial region. However, although the relationship with India is in a good moment, especially considering the signature of the agreement scholarship[2] reached at the end of the Trump Administration, the interaction between the two countries is far from consolidating an alliance.

The new US presidency is faced with a very complicated puzzle to solve in the Indo-Pacific, the main players being China and India. In general, we find that, of the three powers, only Beijing has successfully managed the post-pandemic status [3], while Delhi and Washington continue to face both a health and economic crisis. All this may affect the relationship between India and the United States, especially in terms of trade[4], however, and despite the fact that Biden has not yet demonstrated what his strategy in the region will be, it seems that the relationship between the two powers is set to grow[5]. However, although the United States wants to pursue a policy of multilateral alliances and deepen its relationship with India, the Biden Administration will have to take into account several difficulties before being able to speak of an alliance as such.

Biden started to act in this direction from the very beginning. First there was in February the meeting of QUAD[6], which some consider a mini NATO[7] for Asia, where issues concerning vaccine distribution in Asia (aiming to distribute one billion doses by 2022), freedom of navigation in the region's seas, denuclearization of North Korea and democracy in Myanmar were discussed. In addition, the UK seems to be showing increased interest in the region and in this group dialogue. On the other hand, in mid-March there was a meeting in Alaska[8] between the Chinese and US diplomacies (headed, respectively, by Yang Jiechi, director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, and Antony Blinken, Secretary of State), in which both countries harshly reproached each other's policies. Washington remains firm in its interests, although open to certain partnership with Beijing, while China insists on rejecting any interference in what it considers its internal affairs. Finally, it is worth mentioning that Biden seems to be willing to organize a summit of democracies[9] in his first year in office.

Following contacts that also took place in Alaska between the Chinese and US defense chiefs, Austin Lloyd[10], head of the Pentagon, visited India to stress the importance of Indo-US cooperation. In addition, early April saw the participation of France in the La Pérouse[11] naval maneuvers in the Bay of Bengal, giving rise to the possibility of a QUAD-plus in which, in addition to the four original powers, other countries would also take part.

The Indo-Pacific, let us remember, is the present and the future of international relations due to its economic importance (its main players, India, China and the USA represent 45% of the world GDP), demographic (hosting 65% of the population of the entire globe) and, as we will see throughout this article, geopolitical[12].

U.S.-China-India relations

The Biden Administration seems to be continuing the line followed by Trump, since the objectives have not changed. What has changed is the approach to the object of the issue, which in this case is none other than the containment of China and freedom of navigation in the region, albeit on the basis of a strong commitment to multilateralism. As George Washington's new successor said at his inauguration[13], the United States wants to resume its leadership, but in a different way from that of the previous Administration; that is, through a strong policy of alliances, moral leadership and a strong defense of values such as dignity, human rights and the rule of law.

The new presidency sees China as a rival to be reckoned with[14], as does the Trump Administration, but it does not see this as a zero-sum game, since, while openly declaring itself to be against Xi's actions, it opens the door to dialogue[15] on issues such as climate change or healthcare. In general, in line with what has been seen in New tensions in Asia Pacific[16], the United States is committed to multilateralism that seeks to reduce tension. It should be remembered that the United States advocates the defense of free navigation and the rule of law, as well as democracy in a region in which its influence is being eroded by the growing weight of China.

A good understanding of the state of US-China-India relations goes back to 2005[17], when everything seemed to be going well. As far as the Sino-Indian relationship was concerned, the two nations had resolved their disputes over the 1998 nuclear tests; moreover, their presence in regional forums was growing and it seemed that the issue of cross-border disputes was beginning to be settled. For its part, the United States enjoyed good trade relations with both countries. However, the changing patterns in the world Economics , driven by the rise of China, the 2008 financial crisis in the United States and India's inability to maintain its growth rate upset this balance. Donald Trump's tightening attitude contributed to this. However, some argue that the breakdown of the post-Cold War order in the Asia Pacific began with the Obama Administration's "pivot to Asia"[18]. To this must be added the minor frictions China has had with both nations.

Briefly, it is worth mentioning that there are border problems between India and China[19] that have been flaring up again since 2013. In turn, India is opposed to Chinese hegemony; it does not want to be subjugated by Beijing and is clearly committed to multilateralism. Finally, there are problems regarding maritime domain because the Strait of Malacca is at the limit of its capacity. In addition, Delhi claims the Adaman and Nicobar Islands on the Malacca access route as its own. Moreover, as India is now far below China's military and economic power[20] - the balance between the two powers in 1980 has been broken - it is trying to hinder Beijing in order to contain it.

The United States has ideological subject frictions with China, due to the authoritarian nature of Xi Jinping's regime[21], and commercial frictions, in a dispute[22] that Beijing intends to take advantage of to reduce US influence in the region. In the midst of this conflict is India, which supports the United States because, although it does not seem to want to be completely against China[23], it rejects a Chinese regional hegemony[24].

According to the latest report of the CEBR[25], China will overtake the United States as a world power in 2028, earlier than expected in previous projections, partly thanks to the way it has managed the coronavirus emergency: it was the only major country to avoid a crisis after the first wave. On the other hand, the United States has lost the battle against the pandemic; economic growth between 2022-2024 is expected to be 1.9% of GDP and to slow to 1.6% in the following years[26], while China, according to report , will be growing at 5.7% between 2021-2025[27].

For China, the pandemic has been a way of signaling its place in the world[28], a way of warning the United States that it is ready to take over as leader of the international community. To this can be added China's belligerent attitude in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as its hegemonic growth in the area and its trade projects with Africa and Europe. All of this has led to imbalances in the region that involve Washington's QUAD moves. Recall that, despite its waning role as a power, the United States is interested in freedom of navigation for both commercial and military reasons[29].

Thus, the Chinese economic boom has led to a worsening of the relationship between Washington and Beijing[30]. Moreover, although Biden is committed to cooperation on the pandemic and climate change, there is talk from some quarters of American politics of inevitable competition between the two countries[31].

The Degree of the US-India alliance

In line with the above, we can see that we are in a delicate situation after the change in the White House. January and February have been months of small movements on the part of the United States and India, which have not left China indifferent. Although the Sino-US relationship has benefited both sides since its inception (1979)[32], with trade between the two countries growing by 252% since then, the reality is that trust levels are now at rock bottom, having suspended more than 100 dialogue mechanisms between them. Therefore, although a conflict is not foreseen, an increase in tension is predicted since, far from being able to cooperate in broad fields, only slight and limited cooperation seems feasible at the moment. At the same time, let us recall that China is very much affected by the Malacca Dilemma[33], and is therefore seeking other access to the Indian Ocean, giving rise to territorial disputes with India, with whom it already has the territorial problem of Ladakh[34]. In the midst of this Thucydides Trap[35], in which China seems to threaten to overtake the United States, Washington has been moving closer to New Delhi.

Consequently, both countries have been developing a strategic partnership [36], based essentially on security and defense, but which the United States is seeking to extend to other areas. It is true that Delhi's problems are in the Indian Ocean and Washington's in the Pacific; however, both have China[37] as a common denominator. Their relationship, moreover, is strongly marked by the already mentioned "tripartite crisis"[38] (health, economic and geopolitical).

Despite the intense cooperation between Washington and New Delhi, there are two different points of view regarding thispartnership. While the United States claims that India is a very important ally, with which it shares the same political system and an intense commercial relationship[39], India prefers a less strict alliance. Traditionally, Delhi has conveyed a policy of non-alignment[40] in international matters. In fact, although India does not want Chinese supremacy in the Indo-Pacific, neither does it wish to align itself directly against Beijing, with whom it shares more than 3,000 km of border. Nevertheless, Delhi sees a great need for cooperation with Washington at subject on security and defense. In fact, some say that today India needs the US more than ever.

Although last February, Washington began to review the US Global Positioning Strategy, everything suggests that the Biden Administration will continue Trump's line regarding the partnership with India as a way of containing China. However, although Washington speaks of India as its ally, on the part of Delhi there is certain reticence, thus speaking of an alignment[41] rather than an alliance. Although the reality we are living in is far from that of the Cold War[42], this new containment[43] in which Delhi is sought as a base, support and standard, is materialized in the following:

i) Intense cooperation in subject Security and Defense.

Here there are different forums and agreements. Firstly, the aforementioned QUAD[44]. This new multilateral cooperation alliance that began to take shape in 2006[45] agreed at its March meeting on the development of its vaccine diplomacy, with India at the center, in order to counteract the successful international campaign led by Beijing in this field. In fact, there was a commitment to use 600 million to deliver 1 billion vaccines[46] by 2022. The idea is that Japan and the USA will finance the operation[47], while Australia will be in charge of logistics. However, India is betting on greater multilateralism in the Indo-Pacific, giving entrance to countries such as England or France[48], which already participated in the last Raisina Dialogues together with QUAD. Other issues such as the denuclearization of Korea, the restoration of democracy in Myanmar and climate change[49] were also discussed at meeting .

India seeks to contain China, but without provoking a direct confrontation with China[50]. In fact, Beijing has given the impression that if things go further, it is not only India that knows how to play Realpolitik. Let us recall that New Delhi will chair this year's meeting with the BRICS. In addition, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will host joint military exercises between China and Pakistan, a country with a complex relationship with India.

On the other hand, during his March trip to India, the Pentagon chief[51] discussed with his counterpart Rajnath Singh increased military cooperation, as well as issues related to logistics, exchange of information, possible opportunities for mutual attendance and the defense of free navigation. Lloyd said he did not frown upon Australia and Korea participating as permanent members in the Malabar exercises. Since 2008 trade in military subject between Delhi and Washington totals $21 billion[52]. In addition, $3,000 has recently been spent on drones and other aerial equipment for reconnaissance and surveillance missions.

A week later this meeting, two Indian and one US ship conducted a maritime exercise of subject PASSEX[53] as a way to consolidate the synergies and interoperability achieved in last November's Malabar exercise.

accredited specialization In this context, a special mention should be made to the 2+2 dialogue platform and the aforementioned scholarship (agreement Basic exchange and Cooperation for cooperation in geospatial subject ). The first is a subject of meeting in which the Foreign and Defense Ministers of both countries meet every two years to discuss issues of interest to them. The most recent meeting took place in October 2020[54]. Not only was the scholarship agreed upon, but the United States reaffirmed its support for India regarding its territorial issues with China. Other memoranda of understanding were also signed on nuclear energy and climate issues.

The scholarship, signed in October 2020 during the last months of the Trump Administration, makes it easier for India to better locate enemies, terrorists and other subject threats coming from land or sea. This agreement is intended to cement the friendship that exists between the two countries, as well as help India technologically outperform China. This agreement concludes the "troika of foundational pacts" for deep security and defense cooperation between the two countries[55].

Prior to this agreement, in 2016 the LEMOA (Memorandum of agreement for exchange of Logistics), and in 2018 the COMCASA (agreement of Compatibility and Communications Security) were signed. The former allows both countries access to each other's instructions for supply and replenishment; the latter allows India to receive systems, information and encrypted communication to communicate with the United States. Both agreements affect land, sea and air forces[56].

ii) United for democracy

From Washington, special emphasis is placed on the fact that both powers are very similar, since they share the same political system, and it is emphasized with a certain grandiloquence that they are the oldest and the largest democracy (per issue inhabitants)[57]. Because this presupposes the sharing of a series of values, Washington likes to speak of "likeminded partners"[58].

From the Brookings Institution think tank , Tanvi Mandan defends this idea of ideological bonding. The same system of government makes both countries see each other as natural allies, who think alike and also believe in the value of the rule of law. In fact, in all matters relating to the spread of democracy around the globe, there is strong cooperation between the two nations: for example, supporting democracy in Afghanistan or the Maldives, launching the US-India Global Democracy Initiative and providing other countries with legal and technical assistance on democratic issues at attendance . Finally, it should be noted that democracy and the values it entails have facilitated the exchange and flow of people from one country to another. As for the economic relationship between both countries, it becomes more viable, since both are open economies, share a language and their legal system has Anglo-Saxon roots.

iii) Growing economic cooperation

The United States is India's main trade partner , with whom it has a significant surplus[59]. Trade between the two has grown by 10% annually over the last decade, and in 2019 was $115 billion[60]. About 2,000 US companies are based in India, and about 200 Indian companies are based in the US[61]. Between the two there is a Mini-Trade Deal, believed to be signed shortly, which aims to deepen this economic relationship. On the occasion of the pandemic, everything related to the health field plays an important role[62]. In fact, despite the fact that both countries have recently adopted a protectionist attitude, the idea is to reach 500 billion dollars in trade[63].

Divergences, challenges and opportunities for India and the U.S. in the region

Briefly, between the leaders of both countries there are small frictions, opportunities and challenges to be nuanced in order to make this relationship a strong alliance. Among the sticking points, we highlight India's purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia, which is against CAATSA(Countering America's Adversaries trhough Sanctions Act) [64], for which India may receive a sanction, although in the meeting between Sigh and Lloyd, Lloyd seemed to overlook topic [65]. However, it remains to be seen what happens once the missiles arrive in Delhi. There are also minor divergences on freedom of expression, security and civil rights, and how to relate to non-democratic countries[66]. Among the challenges that both countries must take into account is the possible loss of support in some sectors of U.S. policy for the relationship with India. This is due to India's actions in Kashmir in August 2019, the protection of religious freedom and attention to dissent. On the other hand, the opposite case has not been without weakening of democratic norms, immigration restrictions and violence against Indian natives[67].

Lastly, let us recall that both are facing a deep health and therefore economic crisis, the resolution of which will be decisive in relation to the competition with Beijing[68]. The crisis has affected the bilateral relationship since, although trade in services has remained stable (around 50 billion), trade in goods declined from 92 billion to 78 billion between 2019 and 2020, increasing the Indian trade deficit[69].

Finally, it is worth mentioning the opportunities. First, both countries can develop democratic resilience in the Indo-Pacific as well as in a rules-based international order[70]. In security and defense, there are also opportunities such as the entrance of the UK and France as allies in the area, for example by trying to get both countries into the Malabar exercise or France chairing the Indian Ocean Naval Symposiumin 2022[71]. Although the medium-term trend is for cooperation between the United States and India, the skill with Russia will be a growing threat[72], so cooperation between the United States, India and Europe is very important.

The possibility of cooperation in MDA (Maritime Warning Environment) and ASW (Anti Submarine Warfare) mechanisms is also opened, as the Indian Ocean is of general importance for several countries due to the value of its energy transport routes. The possibility of cooperation through the use of the US P-8 "Poseidon" aircraft is opened up. Despite the disputes over the Chagos Archipelago, India and the United States should take advantage of the agreements they have over islands such as Andaman or Diego Garcia for the conduct of these activities[73]. Therefore, India should use the regional bodies and groups of work to cooperate with European countries and the United States[74].

Europe seems to be gaining increasing importance due to the possibility of entering the Indo-Pacific game through QUAD Plus. European countries are very much in favor of multilateralism, the defense of freedom of navigation and the role of rules in regulating it. While it is true that the EU has recently signed a trade treaty with China - the IAC - increasing the European presence in the region takes on greater importance, since Xi's authoritarianism and his actions in Tibet, Xinjiang, or central China are not to the liking of European countries[75].

Finally, it should be recalled that there are some voices that speak of a decline or weakening of globalization[76], especially after the coronavirus epidemic[77], so reviving multilateral exchanges through joint action becomes a challenge and an opportunity for both countries. In fact, it is believed that in the short term, protectionist tendencies, at least in the Sino-Indian relationship, will continue, despite the intense economic cooperation[78].

Conclusion

The geopolitical panorama of the Indo-Pacific is complex to say the least. Chinese expansionism clashes with the interests of the other major regional power, India, which, while avoiding confrontation with Beijing, takes a dim view of its neighbor's actions. In a bid for multilateralism, and with an eye on its regional waters, threatened by the Malacca Dilemma, India seems to be cooperating with the United States, but clinging to regional forums and groups to make its position clear, while seeming to open the door to European countries, whose interest in the region is growing, despite the recent trade agreement signed with China.

On the other hand, the United States is also threatened by Chinese expansionism and sees the moment of its rival's economic overtaking approaching, which the coronavirus crisis may even have brought forward to 2028. In order to avoid this status, the Biden Administration is betting on multilateralism at the regional level and is deepening its relationship with India, beyond the military aspect. Washington seems to have understood that US hegemony in the Indo-Pacific is far from being real, at least in the medium term, so that only a cooperative and integrating attitude is possible. On the other hand, in the midst of this supposed retreat from globalization, we see how Washington, together with India, and surely in the medium term with Europe, are defending the Western values that govern the international sphere, i.e. the defense of human rights, the rule of law and the value of democracy.

We are faced with two factors. On the one hand, India does not want to see an order imposed by any subject, neither American nor Chinese, hence its reluctance to confront Beijing directly and its preference to expand the QUAD. On the other hand, the United States seems to perceive that it is at a delicate moment, since its competition with China goes beyond the mere substitution of one power for another. Washington is still a traditional power which, for its presence in the Indo-Pacific, has relied above all on military power, while China has based the extension of its influence on the establishment of strong trade relations that go beyond the belligerent logic of the Cold War. Hence, the United States is trying to form a front with India and its European allies that goes beyond military cooperation.

 

REFERENCES 

[1] The QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is a dialogue group formed by the United States, India, Japan and Australia. Its members share a common vision on the security of the Indo-Pacific region contrary to that of China; they advocate multilateralism and freedom of navigation in the region.

[2] scholarship (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement). Treaty signed by India and the United States in October 2019 to enhance security in the Indo-Pacific region. Its goal is the exchange of tracking, tracing and intelligence systems.

[3]Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, "Trilateral Perspective." Chinawatch. Connecting Thinkers ... http://www.chinawatch.cn/a/202102/05/WS60349146a310acc46eb43e2d.html,(accessed February 5, 2021),

[4] Tanvi Madan, "India and the Biden Administration: Consolidating and Rebalancing Ties," in Tanvi Madan, "India And The Biden Administration: Consolidating And Rebalancing Ties,". German Marshal Found of the United States. https://www.gmfus.org/blog/2021/02/11/india-and-biden-administration-consolidating-and-rebalancing-ties,(accessed February 11, 2021).

[5]Darshana Baruah, Frédéric Grére, and Nilanthi Samaranayake, "diary 2021: A Blueprint For U.S.-Europe-India Cooperation", US-India cooperation on Indo-Pacific Security. GMF India Trilateral Forum. Pg:1. https://www.gmfus.org/blog/2021/02/16/us-india-cooperation-indo-pacific-security, (accessed February 16, 2021).

[6] "'QUAD' Leaders Pledge New Cooperation on China, COVID-19, Climate." Aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/12/quad-leaders-pledge-new-cooperation-on-china-covid-19-climate (accessed March 2021).

[7] Mereyem Hafidi, "Biden Renews 'QUAD' Alliance Despite Pressure From Beijing." Atalayar. https://atalayar.com/content/biden-renueva-la-alianza-de-%E2%80%98QUAD%E2%80%99-pesar-de-las-presiones-de-pek%C3%ADn.(accessed February 2021).

[8] "`Grandstanding`: US, China trade rebukes in testy talks." Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/19/us-china-top-diplomats-trade-rebukes-in-testy-first-talks (accessed, March 2021).

[9] Joseph R. Biden, "Why America Must Lead Again." Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again (accessed February, 2021).

[10] Maria Siow. "India Receives US Defence Secretary With China On Its Mind." South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3126091/india-receives-us-defence-secretary-lloyd-austin-china-its-mind.(accessed March 19, 2021).

[11] Seeram Chaulia, "France and sailing toward the 'QUAD-plus'". The New Indian Express. https://www. newindianexpress.com/opinions/2021/apr/06/france-and-sailing-toward-the-QUAD-plus-2286408.html (accessed, April 4, 2021).

[12] Juan Luis López Aranguren. "Indo-Pacific: The new order without China at the center." The Indo-Pacific as a new global geopolitical axis. Global Affairs Journal. Pg.:2. https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/indo-pacifico-el-nuevo-orden-sin-china-en-el-centro?_33_redirect=%2Fen%2Fweb%2Fglobal-affairs%2Fpublicaciones%2Finformes.(accessed, April 2021).

[13] Biden, "Remarks By President Biden On America's Place In The World | The White House"...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/

[14] Ibid.

[15] Derek Grossman, "Biden's China Reset Is Already On The Ropes." Nikkei Asia. https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Biden-s-China-reset-is-already-on-the-ropes.(accessed, March 14, 2021).

[16] Ramón Barba Castro, "New Tensions in Asia Pacific in a Scenario of Electoral Change." Global Affairs and Strategic Studies. https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/nuevas-tensiones-en-asia-pacifico-en-un-escenario-de-cambio-electoral-en-eeuu.(accessed, April 2021).

[17] Sankaran Kalyanaraman, "Changing Pattern Of The China-India-US Triangle." Manohar Parrikar Institute For Defence Studies And Analyses. https://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/changing-pattern-china-india-us-triangle-skalyanaram (accessed March 2021).

[18] Pang Zhongying, "Indo-Pacific Era Needs US-China Cooperation, Not Great Power Conflict." South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3125926/indo-pacific-needs-us-china-cooperation-not-conflict-QUAD (accessed March 19, 2021).

[19] Sankaran Kalayanamaran, "Changing Pattern of the China-India-US Triangle.

[20] Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, "Trilateral Perspective."

[21] Joseph R. Biden, "Remarks By President Biden On America's Place In The World

[22]Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, "Trilateral Perspective.

[23] Maria Siow, "India Receives US Defence Secretary With China On Its Mind."

[24]Tanvi Madan, "India and the Biden Administration: Consolidating And Rebalancing Ties."

[25] CEBR (Centre for Economics and Business Research) is an entity dedicated to the economic analysis and forecasting of companies and organizations. linkhttps://cebr.com/about-cebr/. Every year, this entity prepares a report graduate World Economic League Table¸in which it analyzes the positioning of each country in the world in terms of the state of its Economics. The latest edition(World Economic League Table 2021), published on December 26, 2020, presents a prediction of the state of the world's Economics in 2035, in order to know who will be the main world economic powers (CEBR, "World Economic League Table 2021". Centre for Economics and Business Research (12th edition), https://cebr.com/reports/world-economic-league-table-2021/ (accessed March 2021).

[26] Ibid., 231.

[27] Ibid., 71.

[28] Vijay Gokhale, "China Doesn't Want a New World Order. It Wants This One." The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/opinion/china-america-united-nations.html(accessed April 2021).

[29] Mereyem Hafidi, "Biden renews `QUAD` alliance despite pressure from Beijing.

[30] Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, "Trilateral Perspective."

[31] Ibid.

[32] Wang Huiyao, "More cooperation, less competition". Chinawatch. Connecting Thinkers. http://www.chinawatch.cn/a/202102/05/WS6034913ba310acc46eb43e28.html(accessed March 2021).

[33] Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, "Trilateral Perspective."

[34]Darshana Baruah, Frédéric Grére, and Nilanthi Samaranayake, "US-India cooperation on Indo-Pacific Security." Page 5.

[35] Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, "Trilateral Perspective."

[36] Ibid.

[37]Darshana Baruah, Frédéric Grére, and Nilanthi Samaranayake, "US-India cooperation on Indo-Pacific Security." Page 5.

[38] Tanvi Madan, "India and the Biden Administration: Consolidating And Rebalancing Ties".

[39] Tanvi Madan, "Democracy and the US-India relationship". Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/democracy-and-the-us-india-relationship/ (accessed March 2021)

[40] Maria Siow, "India Receives US Defence Secretary With China On Its Mind."

[41] Bilal Kuchay, "India, US sign key military deal, symbolizing closer ties." Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/2/india-us-military-deal(accessed March 2021)

[42] Wang Huiyao, "More cooperation, less competition".

[43] Alex Lo, "India-the democratic economic giant that disappoints". South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3126342/india-democratic-economic-giant-disappoints(accessed March 21, 2021).

[44] Simone McCarthy, "QUAD summit: US, India, Australia and Japan counter China's 'vaccine diplomacy' with pledge to distribute a billion doses across Indo-Pacific." South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125344/QUAD-summit-us-india-australia-and-japan-counter-chinas.(accessed, March 13, 2021).

[45]Mereyem Hafidi, "Biden renews `QUAD` alliance despite pressure from Beijing.

[46] Simone McCarthy, "QUAD summit: US, India, Australia and Japan counter China's 'vaccine diplomacy' with pledge to distribute a billion doses across Indo-Pacific."

[47] Aljazeera, "'QUAD' leaders pledge new cooperation on China, COVID-19, climate".

[48]Darshana Baruah, Frédéric Grére, and Nilanthi Samaranayake, "US-India cooperation on Indo-Pacific Security." Page 2.

[49]Simone McCarthy, "QUAD summit: US, India, Australia and Japan counter China's 'vaccine diplomacy' with pledge to distribute a billion doses across Indo-Pacific."

[50] Maria Siow, "India Receives US Defence Secretary With China On Its Mind".

[51] "US defense secretary Lloyd Austin says US considers India to be a great partner." Hindustan Times. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/us-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-says-us-considers-india-to-be-a-great-partner-101616317189411.html.(accessed, March 21, 2021)

[52] Maria Siow, "India Receives US Defence Secretary With China On Its Mind."

[53] The term PASSEX is an abbreviation of the English military jargon, it comes from Passing Exercise. It consists of taking advantage of the fact that a Marine unit is passing through a given area to deepen the military cooperation of the army of the area through which it is passing. As an example we find the news cited in the present article: "India, US begin two-day naval exercise in eastern Indian Ocean region". The Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-us-begin-two-day-naval-exercise-in-eastern-indian-ocean-region/articleshow/81735782.cms (accessed March 28, 2021).

[54] Annath Krishnan, Dinakar Peri, Kallol Bhattacherjee; India-U.S. 2+2 dialogue: U.S. to support India's defence of territory. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-us-22-dialogue-rajnath-singh-raises-chinas-action-in-ladakh/article32955117.ece.(accessed March 2021).

[55] Maria Siow, "India Receives US Defence Secretary With China On Its Mind."

[56] Ibid.

[57] Tanvi Madan, "Democracy and the US-India relationship".

[58] Hindustan Times, "US defense secretary Lloyd Austin says US considers India to be a great partner".

[59] "Committed to achieving goal of $500 bn in bilateral trade with US: Ambassador Sandhu".The Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/committed-to-achieving-goal-of-500-bn-in-bilateral-trade-with-us-ambassador-sandhu/articleshow/80878316.cms.(accessed, March 2021).

[60] Joe C. Mathew, "India-US mini trade deal: Low duty on medical devices; pact in final stages." Business Today. https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/india-us-mini-trade-deal-low-duty-on-medical-devices-pact-in-final-stages/story/413669.html.(Accessed, March 2021).

[61] Economic Times, "Commited to achieving goal of $500 bn in bilateral trade with US: Ambassador Sandhu".

[62] Joe C. Mathew, "India-US mini trade deal: Low duty on medical devices; pact in final stages".

[63] Economic Times, "Commited to achieving goal of $500 bn in bilateral trade with US: Ambassador Sandhu".

[64] Darshana Baruah, Frédéric Grére, and Nilanthi Samaranayake, "US-India cooperation on Indo-Pacific Security". Page 2.

[65] Hindustan Times "US defense secretary Lloyd Austin says US considers India to be a great partner".

[66] Tanvi Madan, "Democracy and the US-India relationship."

[67] Ibid.

[68] Tanvi Madan, "India and the Biden Administration: Consolidating and Rebalancing Ties.

[69] Economic Times, "Commited to achieving goal of $500 bn in bilateral trade with US: Ambassador Sandhu".

[70] Tanvi Madan, "Democracy and the US-India relationship."

[71] Darshana Baruah, Frédéric Grére, and Nilanthi Samaranayake, "US-India cooperation on Indo-Pacific Security." Page3.

[72] IBIDEM page 3

[73] IBIDEM. Page 6

[74] IBIDEM. Page 7

[75] Seeram Chaulia, "France and sailing toward the 'QUAD-plus'". The New Indian Express

[76] Elisabeth Mearns, Gary Parkinson; "With a pandemic, populism and protectionism, have we passed peak globalization?". China Global Television Network. https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-28/With-a-pandemic-populism-and-protectionism-has-globalization-peaked--QOQMPg3ABO/index.html.(accessed, April 2021).

[77] Abraham Newman, Henry Farrel; "The New Age of Protectionism." Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2021-04-05/new-age-protectionism.(accessed April 5, 2021).

[78] Economic Times, "Commited to achieving goal of $500 bn in bilateral trade with US: Ambassador Sandhu".

Categories Global Affairs: Asia World order, diplomacy and governance Essays

[Mondher Sfar, In search of the original Koran: the true history of the revealed text (New York: Prometheus Books, 2008) 152pp].

 

REVIEW / Marina G. Reina

 

Not much has been done regarding research about the authenticity of the Quranic text. This is something that Mondher Sfar has in mind throughout the book, that makes use of the scriptural techniques of the Koran, the scarce research material available, and the Islamic tradition, to redraw the erased story of the transmission of the holy book of Muslims. The same tradition that imposes "a representation of the revelation and of its textual product-which (...) is totally alien to the spirit and to the content of the Quranic text."

The work is a sequencing of questions that arise from the gaps that the Islamic tradition leaves regarding the earliest testimony about the Koran and the biography of Prophet Muhammad. The result is an imprecise or inconclusive answer because it is almost impossible to trace the line back to the very early centuries of the existence of Islam, and due to an "insurmountable barrier" that "has been established against any historical and relativized perception of the Koran (...) to consecrate definitively the new orthodox ideology as the only possible and true one." 

As mentioned, Sfar's main sources are those found in the tradition, by which we mean the records from notorious personalities in the early years of the religion. Their sayings prove "the existence in Muhammad's time of two states of the revealed text: a first state and a reworked state that have been modified and corrected." This fact "imperils the validity and identity of Revelation, even if its divine authenticity remains unquestioned."

The synthesis that the author makes on the "kinds of division" (or alterations of the Revelation), reducing them to three from certain ayas in the Koran, is also of notorious interest. In short, these are "that of the modification of the text; that of satanic revelations; and finally, that of the ambiguous nature of the portion of the Revelation." The first one exemplifies how the writing of the Revelation was changed along time; the second is grounded on a direct reference to this phenomenon in the Koran, when it says that "Satan threw some [false revelations] into his (Muhammad's) recitation" (22:52), something that, by the way, is also mentioned in the Bible in Ezekiel 13:3, 6.

Another key point in the book is that of the components of the Koran (the surahs and the ayas) being either invented or disorganized later in time. The manuscripts of the "revealed text" vary in style and form, and the order of the verses was not definitively fixed until the Umayyad era. It is remarkable how something as basic as the titles of the surahs "does not figure in the first known Koranic manuscript", nor was it reported by contemporaries to the Prophet to be ever mentioned by him. The same mystery arises upon the letters that can be read above at the beginning of the preambles in the surahs. According to the Tradition, they are part of the Revelation, whilst the author argues that they are linked to "the process of the formation of surahs", as a way of numeration or as signatures from the scribes. As already mentioned, it is believed that the Koran version that we know today was made in two phases; in the second phase or correction phase surahs would have been added or divided. The writer remarks how a few surahs lack the common preambles and these characteristic letters, which leads to think that these elements were added in the proofreading part of the manuscript, so these organizational signals were omitted.

It may seem that at some points the author makes too many turns on the same topic (in fact, he even raises questions that remain unresolved throughout the book). Nonetheless, it is difficult to question those issues that have been downplayed from the Tradition and that, certainly, are weighty considerations that provide a completely different vision of what is known as the "spirit of the law." This is precisely what he refers to by repeatedly naming the figure of the scribes of the Prophet, that "shaped" the divine word, "and it is this operation that later generations have tried to erase, in order to give a simplified and more-reassuring image of the Quranic message, that of a text composed by God in person," instead of being "the product of a historical elaboration."

What the author makes clear throughout the book is that the most significant and, therefore, most suspicious alterations of the Koran are those introduced by the first caliphs. Especially during the times of the third caliph, Uthman, the Koran was put on the diary again, after years of being limited to a set of "sheets" that were not consulted. Uthman made copies of a certain "compilation" and "ordered the destruction of all the other existing copies." Indeed, there is evidence of the existence of "other private collections" that belonged to dignitaries around the Prophet, of whose existence, Sfar notes that "around the fourth century of the Hijra, no trace was left."

The author shows that the current conception of the Koran is rather simplistic and based on "several dogmas about, and mythical reconstructions of, the history." Such is the case with the "myth of the literal 'authenticity'," which comes more "from apologetics than from the realm of historical truth." This is tricky, especially when considering that the Koran is the result of a process of wahy (inspiration), not of a literal transcription, setting the differentiation between the Kitab ("the heavenly tablet") and the Koran ("a liturgical lesson or a recitation"). Moreover, Sfar addresses the canonization of the Koran, which was made by Uthman, and which was criticized at its time for reducing the "several revelations without links between them, and that they were not designed to make up a book" into a single composition. This illustrates that "the principal star that dominated the period of prophetic revelation was to prove that the prophetic mission claimed by Muhammad was indeed authentic, and not to prove the literal authenticity of the divine message," what is what the current Muslim schools of taught are inclined to support.

In general, although the main argument of the author suggests that the "Vulgate" version of the Koran might not be the original one, his other arguments lead the reader to deduce that this first manuscript does not vary a lot from the one we know today. Although it might seem so at first glance, the book is not a critique to the historicity of Islam or to the veracity of the Koran itself. It rather refers to the conservation and transmission thereof, which is one of the major claims in the Koran; of it being an honorable recitation in a well-guarded book (56:77-78). Perhaps, for those unfamiliar with the Muslim religion, this may seem insignificant. However, it is indeed a game-changer for the whole grounding of the faith. Muslims, the author says, remain ignorant of a lot of aspects of their religion because they do not go beyond the limits set by the scholars and religious authorities. It is the prevention from understanding the history that prevents from "better understanding the Koran" and, thus, the religion.

Categories Global Affairs: Middle East World order, diplomacy and governance Book reviews

The former ECB president takes the helm of Italy with a diary of reforms and a return to Atlanticism.

After a few years of political instability, in mid-February Italy inaugurated a government that is stronger in principle, headed by Mario Draghi, former President of the European Central Bank. His technical profile , his prestige after eight years in European governance and the formation of a government with a certain national unity character are an opportunity for Italy to overcome the current health and economic crisis and to undertake the reforms that the country needs.

Mario Draghi, accepting the assignment to form a government in February 2021 [Presidency of the Republic].

article / Matilde Romito, Jokin de Carlos Sola

For more than a year, the government of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte had been strongly contested from within, especially due to the disagreements of Italia Viva, the party led by Matteo Renzi, at subject economic. The straw that broke the camel's back was Renzi's civil service examination to Conte's proposed plan for the use of aid from the Recovery Fund launched by the European Union to deal with the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Conte lost his majority on January 13 following the resignation of three ministers belonging to Italia Viva and on January 26 he presented his Withdrawal. On February 3, the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, entrusted the training of the new government to Mario Draghi, former President of the European Central Bank (ECB).

At the start of his mandate, Mario Draghi set out his objectives. He stressed the importance of the country maintaining a certain unity in such a difficult historical moment and indicated that his priority will be to offer more opportunities and fight against the status quo that prevents the implementation of reforms.

On February 17, Mario Draghi obtained the confidence of Parliament, recording one of the largest majorities since the Second World War. management Draghi then formed a government made up of different political forces, with the purpose to face the consequences of the pandemic in a framework of national unity: in addition to various technical ministers (8), the 5 Star Movement (4), the Democratic Party (3), the Lega (3), Forza Italia (3), Liberi e Uguali (1) and Italia Viva (1) are represented in the Cabinet. This internal diversity, which on some issues manifests itself in opposing positions, could lead to some governmental instability.

National policy: recovery and reforms

The Draghi Government has proposed as a priority the vaccination campaign and the economic reactivation, as well as reforms in the tax system and in the public administration and Justice system. The former President of the ECB has shown a certain capacity both for innovation in the organizational Structures and for delegating tasks, all of which will be tackled quickly, according to his maxim that "we will do it soon, we will do it very soon".

Accelerating vaccination

As for the vaccination campaign, Draghi is applying maximization and firmness. First of all, he reformed the administrative summits in charge of the vaccination plan and appointed General Francesco Paolo Figliuolo, a military expert in logistics, as the new extraordinary commissioner for the Covid-19 emergency. By then the daily doses supplied reached 170,000, but Figliuolo, together with the director of the Civil Protection, Fabrizio Curcio, and the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, have set as goal to triple that issue. To this end, new vaccination sites have been set up, such as companies, gyms or empty parking lots, and a mobilization of staff has been promoted for vaccination work.

The Draghi government has also adopted greater firmness at the international level, as was the decision to block the export to Australia of 250,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Although supported by the EU, the measure took many countries by surprise and made Italy the first EU member to apply such a legal mechanism. On March 12, the Government announced the possibility of future production in Italy of some of the vaccines already approved internationally.

Economicsstructural reforms

The new Government's economic diary will be characterized by structural reforms to promote productivity, as well as by the application of economic aid aimed at those most affected by the crisis, with the goal aim of relaunching the country and fighting against new social inequalities. The Government is finalizing the Recovery Plan to be submitted to Brussels in order to obtain the funds provided by the EU.

During his term as ECB President Draghi promoted structural reforms in several European countries; therefore, his leadership will be core topic for the promotion of reforms aimed at increasing productivity, reducing bureaucracy and improving the quality of Education. The Government promises more expense at Education and the promotion of a more sustainable and digitized Economics , as called for by the EU Green Deal.

Through the "Sostegni" legislative decree, the Government is implementing an aid plan. Some of them are aimed at defraying the modification of the framework layoffs implemented by Conte, but this requires a more consensual negotiation.

Streamlining of public administration and Justice

The reform of public administration has been entrusted to framework D'Alberti, lawyer and professor of Administrative Law at La Sapienza in Rome. The reform will follow two paths: greater connectivity and an update of the competencies of public officials.

In relation to Justice, the purpose is to implement several of the recommendations moved by the EU in 2019 and 2020. Among other measures, the EU calls for a greater efficiency of the Italian civil judicial system, through a faster work of the courts, a better distribution of the burden of work, the adoption of simpler procedural rules and an active crackdown on corruption.

Foreign Policy: Atlanticism and less enthusiasm for China

One of the first consequences of Draghi's election as Prime Minister has been the new image of stability and willingness to cooperate that Italy has come to project not only in Brussels but also in Washington, both politically and economically. Nevertheless, many aspects of Conte's foreign policy will be maintained, given the continuity of Luigi di Maio as Foreign Minister.

Beyond Europe, Draghi's priorities will be mainly two: the new rapprochement with Washington - in the framework of a convinced Atlanticism, within multilateralism - and the reinforcement of Italian policy in the Mediterranean. Draghi's arrival also has the potential to break with the rapprochement with China effected by Conte, such as the inclusion of Italian ports in the New Silk Road. While this may secure Italy as a major U.S. ally, any decision will have to take into account the Chinese investment that may be committed.

Contribution to European governance

Italy is the third Economics in the EU and the eighth in the world, so its economic performance has some international repercussions. Draghi has assured his commitment to the recovery and his contacts with European elites may help to ease the tension in discussions with other EU members on the distribution of funds, especially the so-called Next Generation EU. During the Euro Crisis Draghi was one of the main advocates of structural reforms and now these are again vital to avoid an increase in expense that could cause debt to grow too high or cuts from budget that would hurt growth.

Draghi has stated that "without Italy there is no Europe, but without Europe there is less Italy" and he intends to make Italy a more active and engaged subject in Europe, while trying to balance the interests of France, Germany and the Netherlands. Merkel's departure at the end of 2021 opens the possibility of a power vacuum in the European committee ; with France and Italy being the second and third Economics her partnership could bring stability and ensure the persistence of the Recovery Fund. This in turn may end up causing governance problems with Germany and the Netherlands should there be disagreements over the use of the funds. However, Draghi has been reticent about France's geopolitical proposals to establish Europe as an independent actor from the United States. This may end up poisoning the potential new special relationship between Rome and Paris.

The advertisement of willingness for dialogue and concord with both Turkey and Russia may end up causing problems in Brussels with other countries. In the Turkish case it may compromise relations with Greece in the Mediterranean. However, the strong criticism of Erdogan, whom he called a dictator, for having diplomatically humiliated Ursula von der Leyen in his visit to AnKara, seems to rule out counterproductive approaches. On the other hand, his desire for dialogue also with Moscow may end up sitting badly in the Baltic capitals, as well as in Washington. 

The Mediterranean: immigration, Libya and Turkey

Draghi also referred to strategic areas outside the EU close to Italy: the Maghreb, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Regarding the latter, Italy's priorities do not seem to change: the goal is to control immigration. To this end, Draghi hopes to establish cooperation with Spain, Greece and Cyprus.

In this area the stability of Libya is important, and the Italian support to the Government of agreement National (GNA) established in Tripoli, one of whose main advocates in the EU has been Luigi Di Maio, who remains at the head of Foreign Affairs, will follow. Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah has declared to be ready to collaborate on Immigration issues with Draghi, but the latter seems to be skeptical towards bilateral deals and will prefer it to be done in a European framework .

This goes against the policy of Greece and France, who support the Libyan National Army, based in Tubruk, because of the GNA's Islamist connections and Turkey's support for them. These differences in relation to Libya have already caused problems and made it difficult to establish sanctions against Ankara.

Seizing the opportunity

The new Draghi Government represents an opportunity for Italy to achieve a certain political stability after years of ups and downs. The integration in the same government of people from different ideological backgrounds can contribute to the national unity required by the present status. The emergency and exceptional nature of the Covid-19 crisis gives Italy an opportunity to implement not only anti-pandemic measures but also radical structural changes to transform Economics and public administration, something that would otherwise be too much of a hindrance.

On the other hand, although within a certain continuity, Draghi's government represents a change in the international strategic chessboard, not only for Brussels, Berlin and Paris but also for Washington and Beijing, given that the more Atlanticist tendencies will distance it from both Russia and China.

Italian governments are not known for their duration and neither does this one offer any guarantee of permanence, bearing in mind that the effort of unity made is due to the temporary nature of the crisis. Nevertheless, Draghi's own profile projects an image of seriousness and responsibility.

Categories Global Affairs: European Union World order, diplomacy and governance Articles

Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans and pending TPS termination for Central Americans amid a migration surge at the US-Mexico border

The Venezuelan flag near the US Capitol [Rep. Darren Soto].

ANALYSIS / Alexandria Angela Casarano

On March 8, the Biden administration approved Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for the cohort of 94,000 to 300,000+ Venezuelans already residing in the United States. Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti await the completion of litigation against the TPS terminations of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the US-Mexico border faces surges in migration and detention facilities for unaccompanied minors battle overcrowding.

TPS and DED. The case of El Salvador

TPS was established by the Immigration Act of 1990 and was first granted to El Salvador that same year due to a then-ongoing civil war. TPS is a temporary immigration benefit that allows migrants to access education and obtain work authorization (EADs). TPS is granted to specific countries in response to humanitarian, environmental, or other crises for 6, 12, or 18-month periods-with the possibility of repeated extension-at the discretion of the Secretary of Homeland Security, taking into account the recommendations of the State Department.

The TPS designation of 1990 for El Salvador expired on June 30, 1992. However, following the designation of Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) to El Salvador on June 26, 1992 by George W. Bush, Salvadorans were allowed to remain in the US until December 31, 1994. DED differs from TPS in that it is designated by the US President without the obligation of consultation with the State Department. Additionally, DED is a temporary protection from deportation, not a temporary immigration benefit, which means it does not afford recipients a legal immigration status, although DED also allows for work authorization and access to education.

When DED expired for El Salvador on December 31, 1994, Salvadorans previously protected by the program were granted a 16-month grace period which allowed them to continue working and residing in the US while they applied for other forms of legal immigration status, such as asylum, if they had not already done so.

The federal court system became significantly involved in the status of Salvadoran immigrants in the US beginning in 1985 with the American Baptist Churches v. Thornburgh (ABC) case. The ABC class action lawsuit was filed against the US Government by more than 240,000 immigrants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and former Soviet Bloc countries, on the basis of alleged discriminatory treatment of their asylum claims. The ABC Settlement Agreement of January 31, 1991 created a 240,000-member immigrant group (ABC class members) with special legal status, including protection from deportation. Salvadorans protected under TPS and DED until December 31, 1994 were allowed to apply for ABC benefits up until February 16, 1996.

Venezuela and the 2020 Elections

The 1990's Salvadoran immigration saga bears considerable resemblance to the current migratory tribulations of many Latin American immigrants residing in the US today, as the expiration of TPS for four Latin American countries in 2019 and 2020 has resulted in the filing of three major lawsuits currently working their way through the US federal court system.

Approximately 5 million Venezuelans have left their home country since 2015 following the consolidation of Nicolás Maduro, on economic grounds and in pursuit of political asylum. Heavy sanctions placed on Venezuela by the Trump administration have exacerbated-and continue to exacerbate, as the sanctions have to date been left in place by the Biden administration-the severe economic crisis in Venezuela.

An estimated 238,000 Venezuelans are currently residing in Florida, 67,000 of whom were naturalized US citizens and 55,000 of whom were eligible to vote as of 2018. 70% of Venezuelan voters in Florida chose Trump over Biden in the 2020 presidential elections, and in spite of the Democrats' efforts (including the promise of TPS for Venezuelans) to regain the Latino vote of the crucial swing state, Trump won Florida's 29 electoral votes in the 2020 elections. The weight of the Venezuelan vote in Florida has thus made the humanitarian importance of TPS for Venezuela a political issue as well. The defeat in Florida has probably made President Biden more cautious about relieving the pressure on Venezuela's and Cuba's regimes.

The Venezuelan TPS Act was originally proposed to the US Congress on January 15, 2019, but the act failed. However, just before leaving office, Trump personally granted DED to Venezuela on January 19, 2021. Now, with the TPS designation to Venezuela by the Biden administration on March 8, Venezuelans now enjoy a temporary legal immigration status.

The other TPS. Termination and ongoing litigation

Other Latin American countries have not fared so well. At the beginning of 2019, TPS was designated to a total of four Latin American countries: Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti. Nicaragua and Honduras were first designated TPS on January 5, 1999 in response to Hurricane Mitch. El Salvador was redesignated TPS on March 9, 2001 after two earthquakes hit the country. Haiti was first designated TPS on January 21, 2010 after the Haiti earthquake. Since these designations, TPS was continuously renewed for all four countries. However, under the Trump administration, TPS was allowed to expire without renewal for each country, beginning with Nicaragua on January 5, 2019. Haiti followed on July 22, 2019, then El Salvador on September 9, 2019, and lastly Honduras on January 4, 2020.

As of March 2021, Salvadorans account for the largest share of current TPS holders by far, at a total of 247,697, although the newly eligible Venezuelans could potentially overshadow even this high figure. Honduras and Haiti have 79,415 and 55,338 TPS holders respectively, and Nicaragua has much fewer with only 4,421.

The elimination of TPS for Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti would result in the deportation of many immigrants who for a significant continuous period of time have contributed to the workforce, formed families, and rebuilt their lives in the United States. Birthright citizenship further complicates this reality: an estimated 270,000 US citizen children live in a home with one or more parents with TPS, and the elimination of TPS for these parents could result in the separation of families. Additionally, the conditions of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti-in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, recent natural disasters (i.e. hurricanes Matthew, Eta, and Iota), and other socioeconomic and political issues-remain far from ideal and certainly unstable.

Three major lawsuits were filed against the US Government in response to the TPS terminations of 2019 and 2020: Saget v. Trump (March 2018), Ramos v. Nielsen (March 2018), and Bhattarai et al. v. Nielsen (February 2019). Kirstjen Nielsen served as Secretary of Homeland Security for two years (2017 - 2019) under Trump. Saget v. Trump concerns Haitian TPS holders. Ramos v. Nielsen concerns 250,000 Salvadoran, Nicaraguan, Haitian and Sudanese TPS holders, and has since been consolidated with Bhattarai et al. v. Nielsen which concerns Nepali and Honduran TPS holders.

All three (now two) lawsuits appeal the TPS eliminations for the countries involved on similar grounds, principally the racial animus (i.e. Trump's statement: "[Haitians] all have AIDS") and unlawful actions (i.e. violations of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA)) of the Trump administration. For Saget v. Trump, the US District Court (E.D. New York) blocked the termination of TPS (affecting Haiti only) on April 11, 2019 through the issuance of preliminary injunctions. For Ramos v. Nielson (consolidated with Bhattarai et al. v. Nielson), the US Court of Appeals of the 9th Circuit has rejected these claims and ruled in favor of the termination of TPS (affecting El Salvador, Nicaragua, Haiti, Honduras, Nepal, and Sudan) on September 14, 2020. This ruling has since been appealed and is currently awaiting revision.

The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have honored the orders of the US Courts not to terminate TPS until the litigation for these aforementioned cases is completed. The DHS issued a Federal Register Notice (FRN) on December 9, 2020 which extends TPS for holders from Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti until October 14, 2021. The USCIS has similarly cooperated and has ordered that so long as the litigation remains effective, no one will lose TPS. The USCIS has also ordered that in case of TPS elimination once the litigation is completed, Nicaragua and Haiti will have 120 grace days to orderly transition out of TPS, Honduras will have 180, and El Salvador will have 365 (time frames which are proportional to the number of TPS holders from each country, though less so for Haiti).

The Biden Administration's Migratory Policy

On the campaign trail, Biden repeatedly emphasized his intentions to reverse the controversial immigration policies of the Trump administration, promising immediate cessation of the construction of the border wall, immediate designation of TPS to Venezuela, and the immediate sending of a bill to create a "clear [legal] roadmap to citizenship" for 11 million+ individuals currently residing in the US without legal immigration status. Biden assumed office on January 20, 2021, and issued an executive order that same day to end the government funding for the construction of the border wall. On February 18, 2021, Biden introduced the US Citizenship Act of 2021 to Congress to provide a legal path to citizenship for immigrants residing in the US illegally, and issued new executive guidelines to limit arrests and deportations by ICE strictly to non-citizen immigrants who have recently crossed the border illegally. Non-citizen immigrants already residing in the US for some time are now only to be arrested/deported by ICE if they pose a threat to public safety (defined by conviction of an aggravated felony (i.e. murder or rape) or of active criminal street gang participation).

Following the TPS designation to Venezuela on March 8, 2021, there has been additional talk of a TPS designation for Guatemala on the grounds of the recent hurricanes which have hit the country.

On March 18, 2021, the Dream and Promise Act passed in the House. With the new 2021 Democrat majority in the Senate, it seems likely that this legislation which has been in the making since 2001 will become a reality before the end of the year. The Dream and Promise Act will make permanent legal immigration status accessible (with certain requirements and restrictions) to individuals who arrived in the US before reaching the age of majority, which is expected to apply to millions of current holders of DACA and TPS.

If the US Citizenship Act of 2021 is passed by Congress as well, together these two acts would make the Biden administration's lofty promises to create a path to citizenship for immigrants residing illegally in the US a reality. Since March 18, 2021, the National TPS Alliance has been hosting an ongoing hunger strike in Washington, DC in order to press for the speedy passage of the acts.

The current migratory surge at the US-Mexico border

While the long-term immigration forecast appears increasingly more positive as Biden's presidency progresses, the immediate immigration situation at the US-Mexico border is quite dire. Between December 2020 and February 2021, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported a 337% increase in the arrival of families, and an 89% increase in the arrival of unaccompanied minors. CBP apprehensions of migrants crossing the border illegally in March 2021 have reached 171,00, which is the highest monthly total since 2006.

Currently, there are an estimated 4,000 unaccompanied minors in CBP custody, and an additional 15,000 unaccompanied minors in the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

The migratory CBP facility in Donna, TX designated specifically to unaccompanied minors has been filled at 440% to 900% of its COVID-19 capacity of just 500 minors since March 9, 2021. Intended to house children for no more than a 72-hour legal limit, due to the current overwhelmed system, some children have remained in the facility for more than weeks at a time before being transferred on to HHS.

In order to address the overcrowding, the Biden administration announced the opening of the Delphia Emergency Intake Site (next to the Donna facility) on April 6, 2021, which will be used to house up to 1,500 unaccompanied minors. Other new sites have been opened by HHS in Texas and California, and HHS has requested the Pentagon to allow it to temporarily utilize three military facilities in these same two states.

Political polarization has contributed to a great disparity in the interpretation of the recent surge in migration to the US border since Biden took office. Termed a "challenge" by Democrats and a "crisis" by Republicans, both parties offer very different explanations for the cause of the situation, each placing the blame on the other.

Categories Global Affairs: North America World order, diplomacy and governance Analysis Latin America

After referendums in 2018 and 2019, the Guatemalan government submitted its report to The Hague in 2020 and the Belizean government has one year to reply.

Guatemala presented its position before the International Court of Justice in The Hague last December, with a half year delay attributed to the emergency status of Covid-19; now Belize will have one year to respond. Although the ICJ will then take its time to draft a sentence, it can be said that the territorial dispute between the two neighbors has begun its final stretch, considering that the dispute over this Central American enclave dates back to the 18th century.

Coats of arms of Guatemala (left) and Belize (right) on their respective flags.

article / Álvaro de Lecea

The territorial conflict between Guatemala and Belize has its roots in the struggle between the Spanish Empire in America and the activity of England in the Caribbean during the colonial era. The inaction of the Spanish Crown at the end of the 18th century in the face of British invasions in what is now Belize, which at that time was Spanish territory, allowed the English to establish a foothold in Central America and begin to exploit continental lands in search of precious woods, such as palo de tinte and mahogany. However, the reservations placed by Guatemala on part of the Belizean land - it claims more than 11,000 km2, almost half of the neighboring country; it also claims the corresponding maritime extension and some cays - generated a status of tension and conflict that has been maintained to the present day.

In 2008, both countries decided to hold referendums on the possibility of taking the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), so that it could rule on the division of sovereignty. The Belizeans approved to take that step in 2018 and the Guatemalans the following year. The issue was formalized before the ICJ in The Hague on June 12, 2019.

Historical context

The territory of present-day Belize was colonized by Spain in the mid-16th century, as part of the Viceroyalty of New Spain and dependent on the captaincy of Guatemala. However, since there were no mineral resources there and there was hardly any population, the metropolis paid little attention to the area. This scarce Spanish presence favored the attack of pirates and to avoid them, the Spanish Crown allowed an increasing English exploitative activity in exchange for defense. England carried out a similar penetration in the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua, but while the Spaniards managed to expel the English from there, in the area of Belize they consolidated their settlement and finally obtained the territory by the Treaty of Paris of 1783, by which Spain disengaged itself from that Central American corner. That concession and another one three years later covered only 6,685 km2, a space close to the coast that England later enlarged, inland and to the south, since Spain was not active in the area. From then on, the enclave was known as "British Honduras".

The cession did not take into account the claims of the Guatemalans, who considered the space between the Sarstún and Sibún rivers as their own. Both with west-east course, the first draws, in the south of what is now Belize, the border with Guatemala; the other, further north, runs through the center of Belize, with mouth next to its capital, splitting the country in two. However, given the urgency for international recognition when it declared its independence in 1821, Guatemala signed several agreements with England, the great power of the time, to ensure the viability of the new state. One of them was the Aycinena-Wyke Treaty (1859), by which Guatemala accepted the Belizean borders in exchange for the construction of a road that would improve its access from its capital to the Caribbean. However, both parties blamed the other for not complying with the Treaty (the road was not built, for example) and Guatemala declared it null and void in 1939.

In the Constitution promulgated in 1946, Guatemala included the claim in the drafting, and has insisted on that position since the neighboring country, under the name of Belize, gained its independence from the United Kingdom in 1981. Already in 1978 the UN approved a resolution guaranteeing the rights to self-determination and territorial protection of the Belizean people, which also called for a peaceful resolution of the neighboring conflict. Guatemala did not recognize the existence of the new sovereign state until 1991 and even today continues to place some limits on the progressive coupling of Belize in the Central American Integration System. Because of its English matrix, Belize has historically maintained a closer relationship with the English-speaking Caribbean islands.

Map of Central America and, in detail, the territorial dispute between Guatemala and Belize [Rei-artur / Janitoalevic Bettyreategui].

Adjacency Line and the role of the OAS

Since 2000, the Organization of American States (OAS), of which both nations are members, has lent itself to mediate between the two countries. That same year, the OAS facilitated a agreement with the goal to foster trust and negotiations between the two neighbors. In order to achieve these objectives, the OAS, through its Peace Fund, actively supported the search for a solution, providing technical and political support. In fact, thanks to this rapprochement, talks on the dispute were resumed and the creation of the "Adjacency Line" was agreed upon.

This is an imaginary line that basically follows the line that from north to south has been "de facto" separating the two countries and is where most of the tensions take place. Over the years, both sides have increased their military presence there, in response to incidents attributed to the other side. Due to these frequent discussions, in 2015 Belize had to request financial aid military from the British navy. Precisely in that Adjacency Zone is located an OAS office, whose purpose is promote contacts between the communities and to verify certain transgressions to the agreements already signed.

One of the most promising advances that took place under the umbrella of the OAS was the signature in 2008 of what was called "agreement special between Guatemala and Belize to submit Guatemala's territorial, insular and maritime claim to the International Court of Justice". Under this agreement both countries undertook to submit to simultaneous popular consultations on the acceptance of the Court's mediation. However, i n 2015, through theprotocol of the agreement Special between Belize and Guatemala, it was allowed that such popular consultations would not be held at the same time. Both parties committed to accept the Court's decision as "decisive and binding" and to comply with and implement it "fully and in good faith."

The Hague and the impact of the future resolution

The referendums were held in 2018, in the case of Guatemala, and in 2019, in the case of Belize. Although the percentages of both popular consultations were somewhat disparate, the results were positive. In Belize, the yes vote obtained 55.37% of the votes and the no vote, 44.63%. In Guatemala, the results were much more favorable for the yes vote, with 95.88% of the votes, compared to 4.12% for the no vote.

These results show how the Belizeans look askance at the decision of The Hague because, although with the fixing of the border final they will close forever any claim, they risk losing part of their territory. On the other hand, the prospect of gain is greater in the Guatemalan case, because if its proposal is accepted -or at least part of it- it would strategically expand its access to the Caribbean, now somewhat limited, and in the case of losing, it would simply remain as it has been until now, which is not a serious problem for the country.

The definition of a clear and respected border is necessary at this point. The adjacent line, observed by the OAS peace and security mission statement , has managed to limit tensions between the two countries, but the reality is that certain incidents continue to take place in this unprotected zone. These incidents, such as the murders of citizens of both countries or mistreatment attributed to the Guatemalan military, cause the conflict to drag on and tensions to rise. On the other hand, the fact that there is no clear definition of borders facilitates drug trafficking and smuggling.

This conflict has also affected Belize's economic and trade relations with its neighbors in the region, especially Mexico and Honduras. Not only due to the lack of land boundaries, but also maritime. This area is very rich in natural resources and has the second largest coral reef reservation in the world, after Australia. In addition, this has, as expected, affected bilateral relations between the two countries. While regional organizations are betting on a more relevant regional integration, the tensions between Belize and Guatemala prevent any improvement in this aspect.

The President of Guatemala has stated that, regardless of the Court's result , he intends to strengthen bilateral relations, especially in areas such as trade and tourism, with neighboring Belize. For their part, the Caricom heads of state expressed in October 2020 their support for Belize, their enthusiasm for the ICJ's intervention and their congratulations to the OAS for its mediating work.

Categories Global Affairs: World order, diplomacy and governance Articles Latin America

Detainee in a Xinjiang re-education camp located in Lop County listening to "de-radicalization" talks [Baidu baijiahao].

ESSAY / Rut Noboa

Over the last few years, reports of human rights violations against Uyghur Muslims, such as extrajudicial detentions, torture, and forced labor, have been increasingly reported in the Xinjiang province's so-called "re-education" camps. However, the implications of the Chinese undertakings on the province's ethnic minority are not only humanitarian, having direct links to China's ongoing economic projects, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and natural resource extraction in the region. Asides from China's economic diary, ongoing projects in Xinjiang appear to prototype future Chinese initiatives in terms of expanding the surveillance state, particularly within the scope of technology. When it comes to other international actors, the Xinjiang dispute has evidenced a growing diplomatic split between countries against it, mostly western liberal democracies, and countries willing to at least defend it, mostly countries with important ties to China and dubious human rights records. The issue also has important repercussions for multinational companies, with supply chains of well-known international companies such as Nike and Apple benefiting from forced Uyghur labor. The situation in Xinjiang is critically worrisome when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly considering recent outbreaks in Kashgar, how highly congested these "reeducation" camps, and potential censorship from the government. Finally, Uyghur communities continue to be an important factor within this conversation, not only as victims of China's policies but also as dissidents shaping international opinion around the matter.

The Belt and Road Initiative

Firstly, understanding Xinjiang's role in China's ongoing projects requires a strong geographical perspective. The northwestern province borders Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, giving it important contact with other regional players.

This also places it at the very heart of the BRI. With it setting up the twenty-first century "Silk Road" and connecting all of Eurasia, both politically and economically, with China, it is no surprise that it has managed to establish itself as China's biggest infrastructural project and quite possibly the most important undertaking in Chinese policy today. Through more and more ambitious efforts, China has established novel and expansive connections throughout its newfound spheres of influence. From negotiations with Pakistan and the establishment of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) securing one of the most important routes in the initiative to Sri Lanka defaulting on its loan and giving China control over the Hambantota Port, the Chinese government has managed to establish consistent access to major trade routes.

However, one important issue remains: controlling its access to Central Asia. One of the BRI's initiative's key logistical hubs is Xinjiang, where the Uyghurs pose an important challenge to the Chinese government. The Uyghur community's attachment to its traditional lands and culture is an important risk to the effective implementation of the BRI in Xinjiang. This perception is exacerbated by existing insurrectionist groups such as the East Turkestan independence movement and previous events in Chinese history, including the existence of an independent Uyghur state in the early 20th century[1]. Chinese infrastructure projects that cross through the Xinjiang province, such as the Central Asian High-speed Rail are a priority that cannot be threatened by instability in the region, inspiring the recent "reeducation" and "de-extremification" policies.

Natural resource exploitation

Another factor for China's growing control over the region is the fact that Xinjiang is its most important energy-producing region, even reaching the point where key pipeline projects connect the northwestern province with China's key coastal cities and approximately 60% of the province's gross regional production comes from oil and natural gas extraction and related industries[2]. With China's energy consumption being on a constant rise[3] as a result of its growing economy, control over Xinjiang is key to Chinese.

Additionally, even though oil and natural gas are the region's main industries, the Chinese government has also heavily promoted the industrial-scale production of cotton, serving as an important connection with multinational textile-based corporations seeking cheap labor for their products.

This issue not only serves as an important reason for China to control the Uyghurs but also promotes instability in the region. The increased immigration from a largely Han Chinese workforce, perceived unequal distribution of revenue to Han-dominated firms, and increased environmental costs of resource exploitation have exacerbated the preexisting ethnic conflict.

A growing diplomatic split

The situation in Xinjiang also has important implications for international perceptions of Chinese propaganda. China's actions have received noticeable backlash from several states, with 22 states issuing a joint statement to the Human Rights Council on the treatment of Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang on July 8, 2019. These states called upon China "to uphold its national laws and international obligations and to respect human rights and fundamental freedoms".

Meanwhile, on July 12, 2019, 50 (originally 37) other states issued a competing letter to the same institution, commending "China's remarkable achievements in the field of human rights", stating that people in Xinjiang "enjoy a stronger sense of happiness, fulfillment and security".

This diplomatic split represents an important and growing division in world politics. When we look at the signatories of the initial letter, it is clear to see that all are developed democracies and most (except for Japan) are Western. Meanwhile, those countries that chose to align themselves with China represent a much more heterogeneous group with states from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa[4]. Many of these have questionable human rights records and/or receive important funding and investment from the Chinese government, reflecting both the creation of an alternative bloc distanced from Western political influence as well as an erosion of preexisting human rights standards.

China's Muslim-majority allies: A Pakistani case study

The diplomatic consequences of the Xinjiang controversy are not only limited to this growing split, also affecting the political rhetoric of individual countries. In the last years, Pakistan has grown to become one of China's most important allies, particularly within the context of CPEC being quite possibly one of the most important components of the BRI.

As a Muslim-majority country, Pakistan has traditionally placed pan-Islamic causes, such as the situations in Palestine and Kashmir, at the center of its foreign policy. However, Pakistan's position on Xinjiang appears not just subdued but even complicit, never openly criticizing the situation and even being part of the mentioned letter in support of the Chinese government (alongside other Muslim-majority states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE). With Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan addressing the General Assembly in September 2019 on Islamophobia in post-9/11 Western countries as well as in Kashmir but conveniently omitting Uyghurs in Xinjiang[5], Pakistani international rhetoric weakens itself constantly. Due to relying on China for political and economic support, it appears that Pakistan will have to censor itself on these issues, something that also rings true for many other Muslim-majority countries.

Central Asia: complacent and supportive

Another interesting case study within this diplomatic split is the position of different countries in the Central Asian region. These states - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan - have the closest cultural ties to the Uyghur population. However, their foreign policy hasn't been particularly supportive of this ethnic group with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan avoiding the spotlight and not participating in the UNHRC dispute and Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan being signatories of the second letter, explicitly supporting China. These two postures can be analyzed through the examples of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Kazakhstan has taken a mostly ambiguous position to the situation. Having the largest Uyghur population outside China and considering Kazakhs also face important persecution from Chinese policies that discriminate against minority ethnic groups in favor of Han Chinese citizens, Kazakhstan is quite possibly one of the states most affected by the situation in Xinjiang. However, in the last decades, Kazakhstan has become increasingly economically and, thus, politically dependent on China. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan implemented what some would refer to as a "multi-vector" approach, seeking to balance its economic engagements with different actors such as Russia, the United States, European countries, and China. However, with American and European interests in Kazakhstan decreasing over time and China developing more and more ambitious foreign policy within the framework of strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Central Asian state has become intimately tied to China, leading to its deafening silence on Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

A different argument could be made for Uzbekistan. Even though there is no official statistical data on the Uyghur population living in Uzbekistan and former president Islam Karimov openly stated that no Uyghurs were living there, this is highly questionable due to the existing government censorship in the country. Also, the role of Uyghurs in Uzbekistan is difficult to determine due to a strong process of cultural and political assimilation, particularly in the post-Soviet Uzbekistan. By signing the letter to the UNHCR in favor of China's practices, the country has chosen a more robust support of its policies.

All in all, the countries in Central Asia appear to have chosen to tolerate and even support Chinese policies, sacrificing cultural values for political and economic stability.

Forced labor, the role of companies, and growing backlash

In what appears to be a second stage in China's "de-extremification" policies, government officials have claimed that the "trainees "in its facilities have "graduated", being transferred to factories outside of the province. China claims these labor transfers (which it refers to as vocational training) to be part of its "Xinjiang Aid" central policy[6]. Nevertheless, human rights groups and researchers have become growingly concerned over their labor standards, particularly considering statements from Uyghur workers who have left China describing the close surveillance from personnel and constant fear of being sent back to detention camps.

Within this context, numerous companies (both Chinese and foreign) with supply chain connections with factories linked to forced Uyghur labor have become entangled in growing international controversies, ranging from sportswear producers like Nike, Adidas, Puma, and Fila to fashion brands like H&M, Zara, and Tommy Hilfiger to even tech players such as Apple, Sony, Samsung, and Xiaomi[7]. Choosing whether to terminate relationships with these factories is a complex choice for these companies, having to either lose important components of their intricate supply chains or face growing backlash on an increasingly controversial issue.

The allegations have been taken seriously by these groups with organizations such as the Human Rights Watch calling upon concerned governments to take action within the international stage, specifically through the United Nations Human Rights Council and by imposing targeted sanctions at responsible senior officials. Another important voice is the Coalition to End Forced Labour in the Uyghur Region, a coalition of civil society organizations and trade unions such as the Human Rights Watch, the Investor Alliance for Human Rights, the World Uyghur Congress, and the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, pressuring the brands and retailers involved to exclude Xinjiang from all components of the supply chain, especially when it comes to textiles, yarn or cotton as well as calling upon governments to adopt legislation that requires human rights due diligence in supply chains. Additionally, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the same organization that carried out the initial report on forced Uyghur labor and surveillance beyond Xinjiang and within the context of these labor transfers, recently created the Xinjiang Data Project. This initiative documents ongoing Chinese policies on the Uyghur community with open-source data such as satellite imaging and official statistics and could be decidedly useful for human rights defenders and researchers focused on the topic.

One important issue when it comes to the labor conditions faced by Uyghurs in China comes from the failures of the auditing and certification industry. To respond to the concerns faced by having Xinjiang-based suppliers, many companies have turned to auditors. However, with at least five international auditors publicly stating that they would not carry out labor-audit or inspection services in the province due to the difficulty of working with the high levels of government censorship and monitoring, multinational companies have found it difficult to address these issues[8]. Additionally, we must consider that auditing firms could be inspecting factories that in other contexts are their clients, adding to the industry's criticism. These complaints have led human rights groups to argue that overarching reform will be crucial for the social auditing industry to effectively address issues such as excessive working hours, unsafe labor conditions, physical abuse, and more[9].

Xinjiang: a prototype for the surveillance state

From QR codes to the collection of biometric data, Xinjiang has rapidly become the lab rat for China's surveillance state, especially when it comes to technology's role in the issue.

One interesting area being massively affected by this is travel. As of September 2016, passport applicants in Xinjiang are required to submit a DNA sample, a voice recording, a 3D image of themselves, and their fingerprints, much harsher requirements than citizens in other regions. Later in 2016, Public Security Bureaus across Xinjiang issued a massive recall of passports for an "annual review" followed by police "safekeeping"[10].

Another example of how a technologically aided surveillance state is developing in Xinjiang is the Integrated Joint Operations Platform (IJOP), a big data program for policing that selects individuals for possible detention based on specific criteria. According to the Human Rights Watch, which analyzed two leaked lists of detainees and first reported on the policing program in early 2018, the majority of people identified by the program are being persecuted because of lawful activities, such as reciting the Quran and traveling to "sensitive" countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Additionally, some criteria for detention appear to be intentionally vague, including "being generally untrustworthy" and "having complex social ties"[11].

Xinjiang's case is particularly relevant when it comes to other Chinese initiatives, such as the Social Credit System, with initial measures in Xinjiang potentially aiding to finetune the details of an evolving surveillance state in the rest of China.

Uyghur internment camps and COVID-19

The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for Uyghurs in Xinjiang are pressing issues, particularly due to the virus's rapid spread in highly congested areas such as these "reeducation" camps.

Currently, Kashgar, one of Xinjiang's prefectures is facing China's most recent coronavirus outbreak[12]. Information from the Chinese government points towards a limited outbreak that is being efficiently controlled by state authorities. However, the authenticity of this data is highly controversial within the context of China's early handling of the pandemic and reliance on government censorship.

Additionally, the pandemic has more consequences for Uyghurs than the virus itself. As the pandemic gives governments further leeway to limit rights such as the right to assembly, right to protest, and freedom of movement, the Chinese government gains increased lines of action in Xinjiang.

Uyghur communities abroad

The situation for Uyghurs living abroad is far from simple. Police harassment of Uyghur immigrants is quite common, particularly through the manipulation and coercion of their family members still living in China. These threatening messages requesting staff information or pressuring dissidents abroad to remain silent. The officials rarely identify themselves and in some cases these calls or messages don't necessarily even come from government authorities, instead coming from coerced family members and friends[13]. One interesting case was reported in August 2018 by US news publication The Daily Beast in which an unidentified Uyghur American woman was asked by her mother to send over pictures of her US license plate number, her phone number, her bank account number, and her ID card under the excuse that China was creating a new ID system for all Chinese citizens, even those living abroad[14]. A similar situation was reported by Foreign Policy when it came to Uyghurs in France who have been asked to send over home, school, and work addresses, French or Chinese IDs, and marriage certificates if they were married in France[15].

Regardless of Chinese efforts to censor Uyghur dissidents abroad, their nonconformity has only grown with the strengthening of Uyghur repression in mainland China. Important international human rights groups such as Amnesty International and the Human Rights Watch have been constantly addressing the crisis while autonomous Uyghur human rights groups, such as the Uyghur Human Rights Project, the Uyghur American Association, and the Uyghur World Congress, have developed from communities overseas. Asides from heavily protesting policies such as the internment camps and increasing surveillance in Xinjiang, these groups have had an important role when it comes to documenting the experiences of Uyghur immigrants. However, reports from both human rights group and average agencies when it comes to the crisis have been met with staunch rejection from China. One such case is the BBC being banned in China after recently reporting on Xinjiang internment camps, leading it to be accused of not being "factual and fair" by the China National Radio and Television Administration. The UK's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab referred to the actions taken by the state authorities as "an unacceptable curtailing of average freedom" and stated that they would only continue to damage China's international reputation[16].  

One should also think prospectively when it comes to Uyghur communities abroad. As seen in the diplomatic split between countries against China's policies in Xinjiang and those who support them (or, at the very least, are willing to tolerate them for their political interest), a growing number of countries can excuse China's treatment of Uyghur communities. This could eventually lead to countries permitting or perhaps even facilitating China's attempts at coercing Uyghur immigrants, an important prospect when it comes to countries within the BRI and especially those with an important Uyghur population, such as the previously mentioned example of Kazakhstan.

REFERENCES

[1] Qian, Jingyuan. 2019. "Ethnic Conflicts and the Rise of Anti-Muslim Sentiment in Modern China." Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3450176.

[2] Cao, Xun, Haiyan Duan, Chuyu Liu, James A. Piazza, and Yingjie Wei. 2018. "Digging the "Ethnic Violence in China" Database: The Effects of Inter-Ethnic Inequality and Natural Resources Exploitation in Xinjiang." The China Review (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) 18 (No. 2 SPECIAL THEMED SECTION: Frontiers and Ethnic Groups in China): 121-154. Accessed November 15, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26435650

[3] International Energy Agency. 2020. Data & Statistics - IEA. Accessed November 14, 2020. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=CHINA&fuel=Energy%20consumption&indicator=TotElecCons.

[4] Yellinek, Roie, and Elizabeth Chen. 2019. "The "22 vs. 50" Diplomatic Split Between the West and China." China Brief (The Jamestown Foundation) 19 (No. 22): 20-25. Accessed November 14, 2020. https://jamestown.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Read-the-12-31-2019-CB-Issue-in-PDF.pdf?x91188.

[5] United Nations General Assembly. 2019. "General Assembly official records, 74th session : 9th plenary meeting." New York. Accessed October 18, 2020.

[6] Xu, Vicky Xiuzhong, Danielle Cave, James Leibold, Kelsey Munro, and Nathan Ruser. 2020. "Uyghurs for sale: 'Re-education', forced labour and surveillance beyond Xinjiang." Policy Brief, International Cyber Policy Centre, Australian Strategic Policy Paper. Accessed November 14, 2020. https://www.aspi.org.au/report/uyghurs-sale

[7] Ibid.

[8] Xiao, Eva. 2020. Auditors to Stop Inspecting Factories in China's Xinjiang Despite Forced-Labor Concerns. 21 September. Accessed December 2020, 16. https://www.wsj.com/articles/auditors-say-they-no-longer-will-inspect-labor-conditions-at-xinjiang-factories-11600697706.

[9] Kashyap, Aruna. 2020. Social Audit Reforms and the Labor Rights Ruse. 7 October. Accessed December 16, 2020. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/10/07/social-audit-reforms-and-labor-rights-ruse.

[10] Human Rights Watch. 2016. China: Passports Arbitrarily Recalled in Xinjiang. 21 November. Accessed November 15, 2020. https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/11/22/china-passports-arbitrarily-recalled-xinjiang

[11] Human Rights Watch. 2020. China: Big Data Program Targets Xinjiang's Muslims. 9 December. Accessed December 17, 2020. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/09/china-big-data-program-targets-xinjiangs-muslims.

[12] National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. 2020. How China's Xinjiang is tackling new COVID-19 outbreak. 29 October. Accessed November 14, 2020. http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-10/29/c_81994.htm.

[13] Uyghur Human Rights Project. 2019. "Repression Across Borders: The CCP's Illegal Harassment and Coercion of Uyghur Americans."

[14] Allen-Ebrahimian, Bethany. 2018. Chinese Cops Now Spying on American Soil. 14 August. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://www.thedailybeast.com/chinese-police-are-spying-on-uighurson-american-soil.

[15] Allen-Ebrahimian. 2018. Chinese Police Are Demanding staff Information From Uighurs in France. 2 March. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/02/chinese-police-are-secretly-demanding-staff-information-from-french-citizens-uighurs-xinjiang/.

[16] Reuters Staff. 2021. BBC World News swept in mainland China, radio dropped by HK public broadcaster. 11 February. Accessed February 16, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-britain-bbc/bbc-world-news-barred-from-airing-in-china-idUSKBN2AB214.

Categories Global Affairs: Asia World order, diplomacy and governance Analysis