Hungary's mission in Chad: What is a NATO and EU member doing in the Sahel?

In 2023 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán launched its 'Chad mission' proposal. At the end of that year the Hungarian National Assembly passed the related law and later the government took the decisions necessary for its implementation. According to the proposal, the Government of Hungary would provide military and humanitarian aid to the Sahelian nation, with a military deployment starting in November 2024. In Hungary as well as in the international community, the proposal's goals and scope are subject of intense discussion.

The proposal was presented to the Parliament on the 6th of November, 2023 by Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky. The question rightly arises as to what the Hungarian Defense has to do in one of the most unstable regions of the world. The Sahel region, which stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the network Sea, is given geopolitical weight by the fact that, in the spirit of the 'global neighborhood', the problems there also appear very quickly at the southern borders of Europe. All imaginable flashpoints that could push states into anarchy are present in the region at the same time. From systemic corruption and overpopulation to ethnic-based separatism with a radical Muslim jihadist hue, to water shortages and desertification caused by global climate change, each factor alone can render states inoperable, imagine if they occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The instability in the region has a direct effect on Europe, leading to security threats from radical jihadist groups, and disruptions in global trade and the flow of resources.

The expected effect of these destabilizing circumstances was not lost, a wave of coups swept through the region: coups have been committed in seven countries in the last three years. Military takeovers overthrew governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger and Gabon, while constitutional coups were carried out in Sudan and Chad. The succession of coups has dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape in the Sahel, forcing France and the EU to leave the countries where they were deployed with large military contingents executing stabilization and counterterrorist operations, only to be replaced by contingents of the old Wagner group and to put them into the Russian orbit.

What gives Chad its importance is that it is the only relatively stable country in the region. But now, the cafeteria is shaking here as well: in 2021, high-ranking army officers led by General Idriss Déby took power after his father, who had been at the head of the country for 30 years, was killed by opposition militants. After the dissolution of the parliament and the resignation of the government, the interim military council led by President Idriss Déby took power. However, the council did not keep its promise to call elections, so there are frequent demonstrations, which are beaten down bloody by the armed forces.

Chad is also under significant human security pressures. 7.5 million people are currently in need of humanitarian aid in a country with a population of 17 million; more than 40% of the country lives below the poverty line. Added to this, there are 1.2 million refugees living in the country, less than half of whom are internally displaced migrants.

Migration as justification

The domestic political tensions and its limited resources are exacerbating humanitarian needs in Chad, prompting many to seek safer, more stable conditions abroad. This would be mitigated by Hungarian aid: a complex support package that has both military and humanitarian elements, and which includes the deployment of 200 Hungarian soldiers in the country as well as 100,000 euros as non-reimbursable aid, and an aid loan worth of 200 million euros.

The main task of the Hungarian forces in Chad is the fight against terrorism and the protection of the Hungarian interests. The Defense ministers of the two countries had a detailed discussion about Hungary's independent engagement in the African country at their bilateral meeting in Budapest on the 22nd of November 2023.

The decision made by the Hungarian Government reflects Viktor Orbán's focus on autonomous national policy, challenging traditional EU foreign policy lines. The rationale presented is straightforward: by enhancing stability in Chad, Hungary aims to reduce migration flows from Africa to Europe. This aligns with Orbán's long-standing emphasis on curbing immigration into Europe, which has formed the bedrock of his domestic and foreign policies. Stabilizing Chad could theoretically prevent large-scale migrations from countries that use Chad as a transit point, thus pre-empting the arrival of refugees and migrants to European shores.

The effectiveness of this strategy can be questioned. Chad is not a primary departure point for migrants aiming to reach Europe. Instead, migrants from regions closer to Europe, such as the Maghreb nations, are more likely to contribute to the migratory pressures on Europe. Chad, though heavily affected by regional conflicts, serves more as a containment zone, housing refugees who are less likely to reach Europe due to geographic and financial barriers. This suggests that Hungary's involvement may have limited impact on reducing migration directly, potentially weakening Orbán's justification for such a costly engagement.

Strategic geopolitical positioning in the Sahel

Hungary has publicly emphasized migration control as its main priority, but the objective of the mission seems to be influenced by larger geopolitical dynamics, particularly when it comes to Hungary's historic relationship with Russia. The Sahel region has increasingly become a battleground for international influence, with powers such as Russia, China, and the United States competing as Western influence diminishes.

France, the former colonizer of Chad, has been decreasing its military presence due to a rise in anti-Western sentiment. The withdrawal of French military personnel is a component of Emmanuel Macron's foreign policy, who has publicly stated that young Africans could support the West if France withdraws its troops. Most recently, on the 29th November 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Chad announced the termination of the defense cooperation agreement with France, signaling a significant shift in Chad's foreign policy. The 'bilateral' termination of the military cooperation raises questions about Chad's 'western-friendly' stance, as the withdrawal of western troops opens the door for other powers to expand their influence in the country.

Russia finds itself stretched in Africa because of its costly activities in Ukraine, limiting its ability to deploy only a few thousand ex-Wagner fighters in the continent whose purpose is to serve Russian geopolitical and economic interests. In regions where the ex-Wagner forces are not active, Hungary has the potential to intervene and provide support to juntas or other authoritarian regimes, like Chad, whose backing from Western nations is diminishing.

In addition to this, a report by a Central European security official cited that Hungary's intervention might establish a military intelligence base in Chad, potentially serving Russian interests. Such a base could help Hungary and Russia maintain a foothold in an area where Western influence is receding. Given Hungary's historical alignment with Russia, evident in its soft stance on the Ukraine war, suggests that its mission in Chad may be less about migration control and more about solidifying influence in regions where EU engagement is waning. For instance, Orbán's government has repeatedly sought to balance Western alliances with maintaining cordial relations with Moscow, reflecting a broader strategic ambivalence.

Capacities of the Hungarian Defense

Hungary's decision to deploy troops to Chad is undoubtedly a rare move into African geopolitics considering the fact that Hungary has limited historical or economic ties to the continent. The Hungarian military, which traditionally focuses on domestic and EU defense, will find themselves in a harsh environment since the forces lack the regional expertise and operational experience enjoyed by other international forces, such as France's seasoned troops, who have been deeply embedded in the Sahel for years.  

Since that the Hungarian contingent will be a standalone force, without being a part of a larger multinational operation, Viktor Orbán's ambitious commitment to combat terrorism and mitigate migration pressures may be perceived as less robust, raising questions about its actual impact on Chad's security environment. That is why the 'Chad mission' raises concerns about Hungary's military capacity to effectively combat or even contain these threats. Compared to the military capabilities of the Hungarian National Defense, the goals of the Hungarian contingent are diverse, but also vague, the tools and experience necessary for the mission are lacking, and the local conditions contain countless threats. For instance, Hungarian Defense spending, at approximately 1.5% of GDP, pales in comparison to NATO's operational leaders, raising doubts about its capacity to achieve the mission's ambitious goals.

The core of the military force will be special operations units, but due to the long distances, helicopters and light vehicles will also participate in the operation. The Hungarian soldiers will rotate in six-month cycles; the preparation of the first rotation has already begun. The start of the operation was planned for the end of 2024, and it is authorized to operate until December 31, 2025 allowing for a deployment period of up to two years.

Apart from the military presence and the financial support, Hungary also aims to foster the living conditions of the citizens of Chad, carried out through the Hungary Helps Program. The program is dedicated to tackle urgent humanitarian issues to assist vulnerable communities and foster sustainable development. A key component of the of the Hungary Helps Program is the construction and rehabilitation of clean water wells, which guarantees that remote populations facing water shortages have access to safe drinking water. The program also enhances local healthcare systems by supporting clinics and supplying essential medical resources, which is vital in the fight against widespread diseases and in improving public health overall.

Controversial

Hungary's mission in Chad marks a controversial and unique move in its foreign policy, combining military and humanitarian priorities in one of the world's least stable regions. Though the primary goal of the mission is the reduction of migration flows and fits one of Hungary's larger strategic interests, the immediate effect of this mission on European migration pressures is questionable, as Chad is a grouping and not a jump-off point for migrants. The ambitious goals showcase Hungary's willingness to conduct an independent foreign policy, even diverging from mainstream EU and NATO policies. Yet, questions about the practicality of its goals, the capacity of its military forces, and the potential alignment with larger geopolitical players such as Russia add complexity to this decision. Hungary's dual focus on combating terrorism and fostering humanitarian development through initiatives like the Hungary Helps Program shows a multifaceted approach, though success will depend on effective execution and long-term commitment.