EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Morocco enters 2026 with a relatively resilient macroeconomic profile, with GDP growth projected at 4.2%, driven by infrastructure investment, agricultural recovery, and strong performance in the automotive and phosphate sectors. However, structural vulnerabilities persist: youth unemployment stands at 21.9%, growth remains heavily dependent on European demand and rainfall patterns, and the current account deficit is gradually widening. Morocco’s ambitious infrastructure push, centered on Tanger Med, Nador West Med, and the Dakhla Atlantic port, reflects a clear strategic bid to become the principal logistics bridge between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, though several projects face B .
In terms of energy and resources, Morocco has made real progress in its solar power and green hydrogen initiatives but remains heavily dependent on gas imports. The abrupt suspension in February 2026 of the $1 billion Nador West Med LNG terminal exposed a persistent gap between strategic vision and execution. Its dominant 70% share of global phosphate reserves provides structural economic strength, but extraction in Western Sahara carries growing legal and reputational risks, particularly following the 2024 CJEU ruling and rising ESG scrutiny from European buyers.
Politically, Morocco operates under a system of engineered stability anchored by monarchical authority, with the 2026 elections expected to produce a fragmented parliament that prevents any challenge to royal prerogative. "Managed Stability" remains the most likely scenario. Nevertheless, the Gen Z 212 protest movement, fueled by high youth unemployment, rising living costs, and the perceived contrast between World Cup spending and neglected public services, signals a growing legitimacy gap that, while unlikely to trigger an immediate crisis, represents a significant medium-term risk to social cohesion.