In the picture
Logo of the July 2023 summit in Lithuania
NATO is holding its 2023 summit in Vilnius in July, which is taking place again while the Alliance is busy lending financial aid material to Ukraine as it tries to repel the Russian invasion. With Finland's entrance already formalized in April, the Vilnius summit will finalize Sweden's membership, once the presidential elections in Turkey remove in principle the obstacles put in place by Turkish President Erdogan. Other issues, such as the strengthening of capabilities and resources or the threat from China, will also define the diary of meeting.
Almost a year after the NATO Summit in Madrid, the Atlantic Alliance is once again on the threshold of the next edition, to be held in the Lithuanian capital on July 12-14. While the 2022 Summit attracted special attention due to the publication of the latest Strategic Concept, this year's event will not be without equal importance.
Thus, close to the date of the summit, it is possible to establish the thematic axes on which the summit is expected to focus in a special way, and which will be the yardstick for measuring the success or failure of meeting.
diary of the summit
WAR IN UKRAINE. For the second year in a row, the Alliance is holding its annual summit during the war in Ukraine, making it one of the central issues. The consequences of this conflict, which has now lasted more than 450 days, have been particularly noticeable in economic terms. But they have also demonstrated to European countries the vulnerability to which they are still exposed by various actors.
As in the previous year, exploring new ways of strengthening Ukraine's position through aid deliveries is again expected to be a central theme in the discussions. Further strengthening of relations between NATO and Kiev, in various fields such as political and military, is also expected to be another key aspect, especially in view of Kiev' s demands for an accelerated process of NATO membership. Despite this request, it is not expected that the summit will result in a decision to accept Ukraine as a member.
FINNISH ACCESSION. The summit is expected to assess the geopolitical consequences of Finland's accession, in the case of Baltic maritime security and other areas, especially considering the implications of an increase of the land border between Russia and NATO by some 1300 km. Discussions are also expected on Finland's contributions to the Alliance, such as its participation in the various military bodies and organizations.
It is also expected that diary will follow up on Sweden's membership, whose accession is considered to have been cleared following the Turkish presidential elections. Sweden's entrance will also have important implications for NATO security, particularly in the Baltics. Recently, Sweden has announced its intention to allow the establishment of allied troops on its instructions prior to NATO membership, which is highly unusual but logical given the current status . All this makes it necessary to define as soon as possible the role to be played by the two new members.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES. Since the commitment to contribute 2% of GDPto the Alliance's defense budget was made firm, set at the 2014 Wales Summit to be achieved by all in a 10-year deadline (2024), only 7 countries have reached such a goal. President Trump came down hard on the lack of dedication of his allies, threatening to stop contributing if the others did not react. Although progress continues to be made, the process will be slower than desired.
In view of the needs generated by the conflict in Ukraine and the growing demand for capabilities against hybrid threats from abroad, the option has even been considered that 2% should not be a ceiling but a basis on which to continue increasing budgets. However, some countries will not be able to reach this goal for some years (as is the case of Spain, expected in 2029 at the earliest).
THE THREAT FROM CHINA. Although China is technically outside NATO's sphere of action, Beijing has become a factor of particular concern to the Alliance as result of its activities across several continents. One of the latest events attesting to the growing influence of the Asian giant has been the sponsorship of a historic agreement diplomatic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, whereby the two countries agree to re-establish diplomatic relations, and which is expected to reduce tensions in the countries of the region affected by their proxies in the coming months.
In particular, there are four aspects of China that concern NATO: Beijing's growing control over critical European infrastructures, its influence in different types of operations, its growing cooperation with Russia on security issues, and its constant challenges to the international order. Regarding the latter, B is the case of the South China Sea, whose waters are claimed by China as its own (in contravention of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS), and which have led its Navy to harass Philippine ships and those of other neighboring countries on some occasions.
Faced with such a challenge, which was first set out in the 2022 Strategic Concept, the Alliance still has the pending (and very important) task of adopting a concrete action plan to deal with the threat posed by China.
NEW model OF NATO FORCES. Last year's Madrid Summit authorized NATO's transition to a new force model in 2023, eloquently called the NATO New Force Model (NFM). This initiative, based on collective defense and replacing the current NATO Force Structure (NFS), will be a tool core topic to contribute to the Alliance's vision of providing 360˚ security.
Broadly speaking, the main core topic of the new model is the establishment of three different levels in its organization of forces, called TIERS. Each of them has a different response time, depending on the needs and threats that may arise for the member countries. Thus, TIER 1, of maximum availability, foresees the mobilization of troops in a deadline of 1 to 10 days. TIER 2, a deadline of between 10 and 130 days, and TIER 3, one of between 130 and 180 days, as a strategic reservation . As for issue of troops, about 100,000, 200,000 and 500,000 are envisaged for each of the TIERS, respectively.
STOLTENBERG'S FUTURE. Another aspect core topic concerns the leadership of the Alliance. The term of office of the current University Secretary, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, is due to expire in September this year. In view of this, the summit may consider extending it again, as it did in March 2022, or appointing a successor to take the reins. In the event that a change is deemed more opportune, considering the work Stoltenberg has done at a time of great change and challenges for the Alliance, his successor must be someone equally capable of leading in these times of conflict.
The road to Vilnius
At final, the Vilnius Summit next July will be pivotal in the Alliance's journey towards establishing stronger and more efficient collective security. With many and varied issues to be addressed in such a short space of time, member state leaders come to Lithuania with a heavy responsibility to ensure that this edition is as successful as Madrid in 2022. From the adoption of a new model of forces to better respond to existing challenges, to the decision on Stoltenberg's mandate, to the war in Ukraine or the growing threat from the Chinese giant, the Alliance finds itself going through a time of uncertainty.
In view of this reality, the work to be held at the summit will be a fundamental element to ensure that the Alliance remains on the right path to ensure a better future. This opportunity to adopt measures that will truly contribute to the Alliance's mission statement will have to be closely followed, as the path to be followed by the Allies in the coming months depends to a large extent on it; months that are already predicted to be far from easy.