Armenia and Azerbaijan face each other in a conflict in which Turkey and Russia are also involved.

▲ Monument to the Armenian capture of the city of Shusha in the war over Nagorno Karabakh in the 1990s [Wikipedia].

ANALYSIS / Irene Apesteguía

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh, traditionally inhabited by Christian Armenians and Muslim Turks, is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. However, its population is Armenian-majority, with a pro-independence sentiment. In Soviet times it became an autonomous region within the republic of Azerbaijan and it was in the war of the 1990s when, in addition to leaving some 30,000 dead and about one million people displaced, separatist forces captured additional Azeri territory. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, ethnic discrepancies between Azerbaijan and Armenia have deepened. Even a 2015 census of Nagorno Karabakh reported that no Azeris lived there, whereas, in Soviet times, Azeris made up more than one-fifth of the population. Since the truce between the two former Soviet republics in 1994, there has been a status stalemate, with the failure of several negotiations to reach a permanent peace agreement . The dispute has remained frozen ever since.

Last September 27, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan once again led to a military confrontation. The latest developments go far beyond the usual clashes, as there are reports of downed helicopters, use of combat drones and missile attacks. In 2016 there was a violent escalation of the conflict, but Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, was not occupied, nor was any martial law declared. If one thing is clear, it is that the current escalation is a direct consequence of the freezing of the negotiation process. Moreover, this is the first time that armed outbreaks have occurred at such short intervals, the last escalation of the conflict having taken place last July.

Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov threatened on September 27 with a "big attack" on Stepanakert if the separatists did not stop shelling its settlements. Nagorno Karabakh declared that it would respond in a "very painful" way. Armenia, for its part, warned that the confrontation could unleash a "full-scale war in the region".

The leaders of both countries hold each other responsible for this new escalation of violence. According to Azerbaijan, the Armenian Armed Forces constantly provoked the country, firing on the army and on crowds of civilians. Moreover, on multiple local Azerbaijani TV channels, President Ilham Aliyev has declared that Armenia is preparing for a new war, concentrating all its forces in Karabakh. Even the Azeri authorities have restricted the use of the internet in the country, mainly limiting access to social networks.

In its counter-offensive operation, Azerbaijan mobilized staff and tank units with the support of artillery and missile troops, front-line aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), said the Ministry's press statement . In addition, from agreement with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a number of Syrians from jihadist groups, from Turkish-backed factions, are fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh. This has been corroborated by Russian and French sources. In any case, it would not be surprising when Turkey sits side by side with Azerbaijan.

For its part, Armenia blames Azerbaijan for starting the fighting. Armenian authorities announced that the Azerbaijani army had attacked with rocket-propelled grenade launchers and missiles. Armenia has not stopped preparing, as in the weeks prior to the start of the battle, multiple shipments of Russian weapons had been detected in the country through heavy transport flights. On the other hand, Armenia's defense minister has accused Turkey of exercising command and control of Azerbaijan's air operations through Boeing 737 Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft , as Turkey has four of these planes.  

Triggers

Both powers were on alert due to the July clashes. Since then, they have not abandoned military preparedness at the hands of their external allies. Therefore, the current events cannot be described as coming out of the blue. After the July outbreak, the feeling has persisted that the armed confrontation had simply been left at Fail.

Hours after the outbreak of fighting, Armenia declared martial law and general mobilization. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, declared that such action was not necessary, but finally the parliament decided to impose martial law in some regions of the country. Not only was martial law decreed, but also the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense declared the liberation of seven villages, the establishment of a curfew in several cities and the recapture of multiple important heights. It is clear that all occupied territories have crucial strategic value: Azerbaijan has secured visual control of the Vardenis-Aghdara highway, which connects to Armenian-occupied Karabakh. The road was completed by Armenia three years ago in order to facilitate quick military cargo transfers, an indication that this is a strategic position for Armenia.

Drone warfare has also been present in the conflict with Turkish and Israeli drones used by Azerbaijan. The anti-drone measures that Armenia has to carry out are involving Iran in the matter.

An important factor that may have led to the conflict was the changes in the diplomatic leadership in Baku. Elmar Mammadyarov, Azerbaijan's foreign minister, left his position during the July clashes. He has been replaced by the former minister of Education, Jeyhun Bayramov, who does not have much diplomatic experience. Meanwhile, Hikmet Hajiyev, advisor foreign policy of Azerbaijan's president has seen his role in these areas increased.

But the problem is not so much centered on the new appointments. For the past few years, Mammadyarov was the biggest optimist about the concessions Armenia might be willing to make under Nikol Pashinyan's new government. And that is because ever since Armenia's Velvet Revolution, which brought Pashinyan to the post of prime minister in 2018, Azerbaijan had harbored the hope that it could resolve the conflict. This hope was shared by many diplomats and experts in the West. Moreover, even within Armenia, Pashinyan's opponents called him a traitor because, they claimed, he was selling the country's interests in exchange for Western money. All this hope for Armenia disappeared, as the new Armenian Prime Minister's position on Nagorno-Karabakh was harsher than ever. He even declared on several occasions that "Karabakh is Armenia". All this led to the strengthening of Azerbaijan's position, which hardened after the July clashes. Baku has never ruled out the use of force to try to solve the problem of its territorial integrity.

In the 2016 conflict there were many efforts to minimize these armed disturbances, mainly by Russian diplomacy. These have been supported by the West, which saw Moscow's mediation as positive. However, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have not resumed, and the excuse of the coronavirus pandemic has not been very convincing, according to domestic media.

More points have led to the current escalation, such as increased Turkish involvement. After the July clashes, Turkey and Azerbaijan conducted joint military exercises. Ankara's representatives began talking about the ineffectiveness of the peace process, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking last month at the UN General Assembly, described Armenia as the biggest obstacle to long-term peace in the South Caucasus. This is not to say that Turkey provoked the new escalation, but it certainly helped push Azerbaijan into a more emboldened attitude. The Turkish president stated on Twitter that "Turkey, as always, stands with all its brothers and sisters in Azerbaijan." Moreover, last August, the Azeri defense minister said that, with the financial aid of the Turkish army, Azerbaijan would fulfill "its sacred duty," something that can be interpreted as the recovery of lost territories.

International importance

In a brief review of the allies, it is worth mentioning that the Azeris are a majority population of Turkish origin, with which Turkey has close ties, although unlike the Turks, most Azeris are Shiite Muslims. As for Armenia, Turkey has no relations with Armenia, since the former is a majority Orthodox Christian country that historically has always relied on Russia.

As soon as the hostilities began, several states and international organizations called for a cease-fire. For example, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a telephone conversation with his Armenian counterpart, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, called for an end to the fighting and declared that Moscow would continue its mediation efforts. Meanwhile, as it did after the July clashes, Turkey again expressed through various channels its plenary session of the Executive Council support for Azerbaijan. The Turkish Foreign Ministry assured that Ankara is ready to help Baku in any way. The Armenian president, hours before the start of the fire, mentioned that a new conflict could "affect the security and stability not only of the South Caucasus, but also of Europe". US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed serious concerns and called on both sides to stop the fighting.

On the other hand, there is Iran, which is mainly Shiite and also has a large ethnic Azeri community in the northwest of the country. However, it maintains good relations with Russia. Moreover, having borders with both countries, Iran offered to mediate peace talks. This is where Iran's current problem over the new conflict is centered. Azeri activists called protests in Iranian Azerbaijan, which is the national territory of Azeris under Iranian sovereignty, against Tehran's support for Armenia. The arrests carried out by the Iranian government have not prevented further protests by this social sector. This response in the streets is an important indicator of the current temperature in northwest Iran.

As for Western countries, France, which has a large Armenian community, called for a cease-fire and the start of dialogue. The United States claimed to have contacted both sides to urge them to "cease hostilities immediately and avoid words and actions of little financial aid".

Russia may have serious concerns in the resumption of full-scale hostilities. It has made it clear on multiple occasions that the important thing is to prevent the conflict from escalating. One reason for that insistence may be that the Kremlin already has open fronts in Ukraine, Syria and Libya, in addition to the current status in Belarus, and the poisoning of Alexei Navalni. Moreover, despite the current attempt by the presidents of Russia and Turkey to show that relations between their countries are going well, the discrepancies between them, such as their views on Syria or Libya, are becoming greater and more diverse. And now, Vladimir Putin could not leave Armenia in the hands of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The Minskgroup of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has as its main mission statement the mediation of peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and is co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States. In response to the present conflict, it called for a "return to ceasefire and resumption of substantive negotiations". Earlier this year, Armenia rejected the Madrid Principles, the main conflict resolution mechanism proposed by the Minsk group . Moreover, this initiative has been made increasingly impossible by the Armenian Defense Ministry's concept of "new war for new territories," as well as Nikol Pashinyan's idea of unification of Armenia and Karabakh. All this has infuriated the Azeri government and citizenry, which has increasingly criticized the Minsk group . Azerbaijan has also criticized the passivity of the group in the face of what it considers inflammatory actions by Armenia, such as the transfer of the capital of Karabakh to Susa, a city of great cultural importance for Azerbaijanis, or the illegal settlement of Lebanese and Armenians in occupied Azerbaijani territories.  

If any conclusion is to be drawn from this it is that, for many in both Azerbaijan and Armenia, the peace process has been discredited over the past three decades of failed negotiations, prompting increasing warnings that the status quo would lead to further escalation of the conflict.

Among some experts there is growing concern that Western countries do not understand the current status and the consequences that could result from the worst flare-up in the region in years. The director of the South Caucasus Office at the Heinrich Boell Foundation, Stefan Meister, has stated that the fighting between these two regions could go far. In his opinion, "the European Union and the West underestimate the conflict".

The European Union has also taken a stand. It has already order to Armenia and Azerbaijan to reduce cross-border tensions, urging them to stop the armed confrontation and to refrain from actions that provoke further tension, and to take measures to avoid further escalation.

The conflict in the Caucasus is of great international importance. There are regular clashes and resurgence of tensions in the area. The relevance centers on the fact that any escalation of violence could destabilize the global Economics , given that the South Caucasus is a corridor for gas pipelines running from the Caspian Sea to world markets, and more specifically, to Europe. If Armenia decides that Azerbaijan has escalated too far, it could attack Azerbaijan's South Caucasus Pipeline, which sends gas for Turkey's TANAP, and terminates with TAP, which supplies Europe. Another strategic aspect is the control of the city of Ghanai, as controlling it could connect Russia to Karabakh. In addition, control of that site could cut off connectivity between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey in relation to gas pipelines. There were already conflicts in this area last July, therefore, as a result of the new conflict Azerbaijan has been predisposed to close the airspace of the region.

In bright green, territory of Nagorno-Karabakh agreed in 1994; in soft green, territory controlled by Armenia until this summer [Furfur/Wikipedia].

A new war?

There are several possible outcomes for the current status . The most likely is a battle for small and not particularly important areas, allowing the symbolic declaration of a "victory". The problem centers on the fact that each opponent may have a very different view of things, thus making a new side of confrontation inevitable, raising the stakes of the conflict, and leading to a lower possibility of understanding between the parties.

Although unlikely, many analysts do not rule out the possibility that the current escalation is part of the preparations for negotiations and is necessary to shore up diplomatic positions and increase pressure on the opponent before resuming talks.

Whatever the reasoning behind the armed clashes, one thing is clear: the importance of military force in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is growing by the day. The absence of talks is becoming critical. If the Karabakh pendulum is not mended soon and does not swing from generals to diplomats, it may become irreparable. And it will be then that the prospects of another regional war breaking out once again will cease to be a mere scenario described by experts.

While Russia continues to insist that there is no other option but the peaceful way, the contact Line between the two sides in Nagorno Karabakh has become the most militarized area in Europe. Many experts have repeatedly shown as a possible scenario that Azerbaijan decides to launch a military operation to regain its lost territory. The country, whose main revenue source is its Caspian Sea oil wealth, has spent billions of dollars on new weaponry. In addition, it has been Azerbaijan that has replaced Russia as the largest carrier of natural gas to Turkey.

A major consequence of the conflict centers on potential losses for Russia and Iran. One more casualty of the conflict may be Russia's position as the leader of Eurasia. Another argument is based on the Turkish committee , which has demanded Armenia's withdrawal from Azerbaijani lands. The problem lies in the fact that the members of that committee, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, are also members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), led by Russia together with Armenia. On the other hand, moreover, Iran sample panics at the total solidarity expressed by Turkey to Azerbaijan, as more Azeris live in Iranian Azerbaijan than in the Republic of Azerbaijan.

We are facing one of the many conflicts exemplifying the new and current "style" of warfare, where great powers place themselves behind the backs of small conflicts. Nevertheless, the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh will be small in extension, but not in importance, since besides contributing to the continuity in the destabilization of the Caucasian area , it can affect nearby powers, and even Europe. The West should give it the importance it deserves, because if it continues in the same line, the door is open to a more violent, extensive and prolonged military conflict.