▲ Revolutionary Guard commandos naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz in 2015 [Wikipedia].

essay / Ana Salas Cuevas

The Islamic Republic of Iran, also known as Persia, is a country of great geopolitical importance. It is a regional power not only because of its strategic location, but also because of its large hydrocarbon resources, which make Iran the fourth country in proven oil reserves and the first in gas reserves[1].

Thus, we are talking about one of the most important countries in the world for three fundamental reasons. The first, mentioned above: its immense oil and gas reserves. Secondly, because Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, which is the key to entrance and the exit from the Persian Gulf and through which most of the hydrocarbon exports of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain pass[2]. 2] Finally, for the nuclear program in which it has invested so many years.

The Iranian republic is based on the principles of Shiite Islam, although there is great ethnic diversity in its society. It is therefore essential to take into account the great "strength of Iranian nationalism" in order to understand its politics. By appealing to its dominant position over other countries, the Iranian nationalist movement aims to influence public opinion. Nationalism has been building for more than 120 years, since the Tobacco Boycott of 1891[4] was a direct response to outside intervention and pressure, and today aims to achieve hegemony in the region. Iran's foreign and domestic policies are a clear expression of this movement[5].

Byproxy agent(proxy armies)

Subsidiary war ( war by proxy) is a war model in which a country uses third parties to fight or influence in a given territory, instead of confronting each other directly. As David Daoud points out, in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, "Tehran has perfected the art of gradually conquering a country without replacing its flag"[6]. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) is directly involved in this task, training or militarily favoring the forces of other countries.

The GRI was born with the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in order to maintain the achievements of the movement[7]. It is one of the main political and social actors in the country. It has great capacity to influence national political debates and decisions. It is also the owner of numerous companies within the country, which guarantees it a source of its own financing and reinforces its character as an internal power. It constitutes a body independent of the armed forces, and the appointment of its senior officers depends directly on the Leader of the Revolution. Among its objectives is the struggle against imperialism, and it expressly commits itself to try to rescue Jerusalem in order to return it to the Palestinians[8]. Their importance is crucial to the regime, and any attack on these bodies represents a direct threat to the Iranian government[9].

Iran's relationship with the Muslim countries around it is marked by two main facts: on the one hand, its Shiite status; on the other, the preeminence it achieved in the past in the region[10]. 10] Thanks to the fact that its external action is supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Iran has managed to establish strong links with political and religious groups throughout the Middle East. From there, Iran takes advantage of different resources to strengthen its influence in different countries. Firstly, by using soft power tools. Thus, among other actions, it has participated in the reconstruction of mosques and schools in countries such as Lebanon and Iraq[11]. 11] In Yemen, it has provided logistical and economic aid to the Houthi movement. In 2006, it was involved in the reconstruction of southern Beirut.

However, the methods used by these forces reach other extremes, moving to more intrusive mechanisms(hard power). For example, following the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Iran has been establishing a foothold there for three decades, with Hezbollah as a proxy, taking advantage of complaints about the disenfranchisement of the Shiite community. This line of action has enabled Tehran promote its Islamic Revolution abroad[12].

In Iraq, the GRI sought to destabilize Iraq internally by supporting Shiite factions such as the Badr organization during the Iranian-Iraqi war of the 1980s. Iran, on the other hand, involved the GRI in the uprising of Saddam Hussein in the early 1990s. Through this subject of influences and embodying the proxy army paradigm, Iran has been establishing very direct influences over these places. Even in Syria, this elite Iranian corps has great influence, supporting the Al Assad government and the Shiite militias fighting alongside it.

For its part, Saudi Arabia accuses Iran and its Guard of supplying weapons in Yemen to the Houthis (a movement that defends the Shiite minority), generating an important escalation of tension between the two countries[13].

The GRI is thus consolidating its position as one of the most important factors in the Middle East landscape, driving the struggle between two opposing camps. However, it is not the only one. Thus, we find a "cold war" scenario, which ends up transcending and becoming an international focus. On the one hand, Iran, supported by powers such as Russia and China. On the other, Saudi Arabia, supported by the US. This conflict is developing, to a large extent, in an unconventional manner, through proxy armies such as Hezbollah and the Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen[14].

Causes of a confrontation

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have spread throughout the Middle East (and beyond), creating two well-defined camps in the Middle East, both with claims to hegemony in the area.

To interpret this scenario and better understand civil service examination it is important, first of all, to distinguish two opposing ideological currents: Shiism and Sunnism (Wahhabism). Wahhabism is an extreme right-wing Muslim religious tendency of the Sunni branch, which is today the majority religion in Saudi Arabia. Shiism, as previously mentioned, is the current on which the Republic of Iran is based. However, as we shall see, the struggle developing between Iran and Saudi Arabia is political, not religious; it is based more on the ambition for power than on religion.

Secondly, the control of oil traffic is another cause of this rivalry. To understand this reason, it is worth bearing in mind the strategic position that the countries of the Middle East play on the global map by hosting the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world. issue A large number of contemporary struggles are due, in fact, to the interference of the major powers in the region, trying to play a role in these territories. Thus, for example, the Sykes-Picot agreement [15] of 1916 for the sharing of European influences continues to condition current events. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran, as we have been saying, have a special role in these confrontations, for the reasons described above.

Under these considerations, it is important to point out, thirdly, the involvement of external powers such as the United States in these tensions.

The effects of the Arab Springs have weakened many countries in the region. Not so Saudi Arabia and Iran, which in recent decades have sought to consolidate their position as regional powers, largely thanks to the support provided by their oil production and large oil reserves. The differences between the two countries are reflected in the way they try to shape the region and in the different interests they seek to achieve. In addition to the ethnic differences between Iran (Persians) and Saudi Arabia (Arabs), their alignment on the international scene is also opposite. Wahhabism presents itself as anti-American, but the Saudi government is aware of its need for US support, and both countries maintain a reciprocal convenience, with oil as a base. The same is not true of Iran.

Iran and the US were close allies until 1979. The Islamic Revolution changed everything and since then, with the US embassy hostage crisis in Tehran as a particularly dramatic initial moment, tensions between the two countries have been frequent. The diplomatic confrontation has become acute again with President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 for Iran's nuclear non-proliferation, with the consequent resumption of economic sanctions towards Iran. Moreover, in April 2019, the United States placed the Revolutionary Guard on its list of terrorist organizations[16], holding Iran responsible for financing and promote terrorism as a government tool [17].

On one side, then, is the Saudi side, supported by the US and, within the region, by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel. On the other side, Iran and its allies in Palestine, Lebanon (pro-Shiite side) and recently Qatar, to which could be added Syria and Iraq (Shiite militias). Tensions increased after the death of Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. In the latter camp we could highlight the international support of China or Russia, but little by little we can observe a distancing of relations between Iran and Russia.

When speaking of the struggle for hegemony in the control of oil traffic, it is essential to mention the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial geographical point of this conflict, where both powers are directly confronted. This strait is a strategic zone located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Some 40% of the world's oil passes through it[18]. Control of these waters is obviously decisive in the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as for any of the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries of the Middle East (OPEC) in the region: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

One of the objectives of the economic sanctions imposed by Washington on Iran is to reduce its exports in order to favor Saudi Arabia, its major regional ally. To this end, the U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, is tasked with protecting commercial shipping at area.

The Strait of Hormuz "is the escape valve used by Iran to relieve the pressure exerted from outside the Gulf" [19]. From here, Iran tries to react to the economic sanctions imposed by the US and other powers; this is what gives it a greater voice on the international scene, as it has the capacity to block the strategic passage. Recently there have been attacks on oil tankers from Saudi Arabia and other countries[20], something that causes great economic and military destabilization in each new episode[21].  

At final, the skill between Iran and Saudi Arabia has an effect not only regionally but also globally. The conflicts that could be unleashed in this area are increasingly reminiscent of a well-known Cold War, both in terms of the methods on the battle front (and the incidence of proxy armies on this front), and the attention it requires for the rest of the world, which depends on this result, perhaps, much more than it is aware of.

Conclusions

For several years now, a regional confrontation has been consolidating that also involves the major powers. This struggle transcends the borders of the Middle East, similar to the status unleashed during the Cold War. Its main agents are the proxy armies, which promote struggles through non-state actors and unconventional warfare methods, constantly destabilizing relations between states, as well as within states themselves.

To avoid the fighting in Hormuz, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have tried to transport oil by other routes, for example by building pipelines. This tap is held by Syria, through which the pipelines must pass in order to reach Europe). In the end, the Syrian war can be seen from many perspectives, but there is no doubt that one of the reasons for the meddling of extra-regional powers is the economic interest in the Syrian coast.

From 2015 until now, Yemen's hushed civil war is being fought. At stake are strategic issues such as the control of the Mandeb Strait. Behind this terrible war against the Houthis(proxies), there is a latent fear that the latter will take control of access to the Red Sea. In this sea and near the strait is Djibouti, where the great powers have installed instructions military for better control over the area.

The most affected power is Iran, which sees its Economics weakened by constant economic sanctions. The status affects a population oppressed both by the government itself and by international pressure. The government itself ends up misinforming the society, causing a great distrust towards the authorities. This generates a growing political instability, which manifests itself in frequent protests.

The regime has publicized these demonstrations as protests against US actions, such as the assassination of General Soleimani, without mentioning that many of these revolts are due to the great dissatisfaction of the civilian population with the serious measures taken by Ayatollah Khamenei, more focused on seeking hegemony in the area than on solving internal problems.

Thus, it is often difficult to realize the implication of these confrontations for the majority of the world. Indeed, the use of proxy armies should not distract us from the fact of the real involvement of the major powers of the West and the East (in true Cold War fashion). Nor should the alleged motives for keeping these fronts open distract us from the true incidence of what is really at stake: nothing more and nothing less than the global Economics .