The Trump Administration concludes its management in an assertive manner in the region and passes the baton to the Biden Administration, which seems to be committed to multilateralism and cooperation.

With the world at a standstill because of Covid-19, the Asian giant has taken the opportunity to resume a whole series of operations with the goal to expand its control over the territories bordering its coastline. Such activities have not left the United States indifferent, which despite its complex internal status has taken action. With Mike Pompeo's visits throughout the Asia Pacific, the American power is increasing the process of containment of Beijing, materialized in a quadruple alliance between the United States, Japan, India and Australia. The new executive that the White House will inaugurate in January may involve a renewal of US actions which, without breaking with the Trump Administration, will recover the spirit of the Obama Administration, i.e. guided by greater cooperation with the countries of the Asia-Pacific and a commitment to dialogue.

Airstrip installed by China on Thitu or Pagasa Island, the second largest of the Spratlys, whose administration has been internationally recognized for the Philippines [Eugenio Bito-ononon Jr].

article / Ramón Barba

During the pandemic, Beijing has taken the opportunity to resume its actions in Asia Pacific waters. In mid-April, China proceeded to designate land in the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Archipelago and Macclesfield Bank as new districts of the city of Sansha, a town on China's Hainan Island. This ascription management assistant caused the subsequent protest of the Philippines and Vietnam, who claim sovereignty over these areas. Beijing's attitude has been accompanied by incursions and sabotage of ships in the area. See the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing vessel, which China denies, arguing that it had suffered an accident and was carrying out illegal activities.

China's actions since the summer have been increasing instability in the region through military exercises near Taiwan or confrontations with India due to its border problems; on the other hand, in addition to the Philippine and Vietnamese civil service examination towards Chinese movements, there is the growing tension with Australia after the latter requested an investigation into the origin of the COVID-19, and the increase in maritime tensions with Japan. All this has led to a response from the United States, which claims to be the defender of free navigation in the Asia-Pacific, thus justifying its military presence and emphasizing that the People's Republic of China is not in favor of free transit, democracy or the rule of law.

US makes a move

Tensions between China and the United States in relation to the present dispute have been on the rise throughout the summer, with both increasing their military presence in the area (Washington has also sanctioned 24 Chinese companies that have helped to militarize the area). All this has recently resulted in the visits carried out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to the Asia Pacific throughout the month of October. Prior to this round of visits, he had made statements in September at the ASEAN Virtual Summit urging countries in the region to limit their relations with China.

The dispute over these waters affects Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia, countries which, together with India and Japan, were visited by Pompeo (among others) in order to ensure greater control over Beijing's actions. During his tour, the US Secretary of State met with the foreign ministers of India, Australia and Japan to join forces against the Asian giant. Washington then signed in New Delhi a military agreement of exchange of data satellites to better track Chinese movements in the area, and made a state visit to Indonesia visit . It should be recalled that Jakarta had been characterized until then by a growing friendship with Beijing and a worsening relationship with the United States due to a decrease in the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program aid. However, during Pompeo's visit , both countries agreed to improve their relations through increased cooperation in regional, military procurement, intelligence, joint training and maritime security.

Thus, this move by Washington has implied:

• The consolidation of a quadruple alliance between India, Japan, Australia and the United States that has been materialized in the joint military exercises in the Bay of Bengal in early November. It should be recalled that this is in addition to Washington's traditional allies in the area (the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). In addition, the possibility of closer ties with Vietnam remains open.

• The expansion of its military presence in the area, increasing the flow of material sold to Taiwan, also highlighting the visits of high-ranking officials from Washington throughout July and the following months.

• Return of the destroyer USS Barry to the waters of the South China Sea with the goal to serve as a symbol of civil service examination to Chinese action, and as a defender of freedom of navigation, peace and stability.

• Indonesia will move its Naval Combat Force (permanently based in Jakarta) to Natuna, islands bordering the South China Sea, rich in natural resources and disputed between the two countries.

• ASEAN takes a stand for peace and stability and in favor of UNCLOS 1982 (which establishes the governing legal framework for the law of the sea) during the summit held in Vietnam on November 12-15.

The ratio decidendi behind the Chinese performance

As a first approach to the ratio decidendi behind China's actions, it should be recalled that since 2012, taking advantage of the regional instability, the Asian giant alluded to its historical right over the South Sea territories to justify its actions, arguments dismissed in 2016 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague. On the basis of the argument that Chinese fishermen once frequented the area, the appropriation of more than 80% of the territory has been justified and has since pitted Beijing against Manila.

On the other hand, Luis Lalinde, in his article China and the importance of dominating the Surrounding Sea (2017) gives a more complete view of the matter, alluding not only to historical reasons, but also to economic and geopolitical reasons. First of all, more than half of the hydrocarbons from which China is supplied transit through the Asia Pacific region, which in turn constitutes the world's main economic hub. In addition, Beijing has been deeply affected by the "century of humiliations", characterized by a lack of Chinese control over its territory due to maritime invasions. Finally, the dominion of the seas together with the already achieved continental weight, are vital for the hegemonic projection of China in a area of increasing economic weight at world level. For this reason, the so-called "string of pearls" has been established for the defense of strategic, security and energy supply interests from the Persian Gulf to the South Sea.

Lalinde's arguments justify China's actions in recent years, however, Bishop (2020), states in the Council on Foreign Relations that the reason behind the recent Chinese attitude is due to issues of internal instability while a small sector of the Chinese intelligentsia is sample critical and distrustful of Xi's leadership. Arguing that the pandemic has weakened the Economics and the Chinese government so that through foreign policy actions it must appear strong and vigorous. Finally, it is worth considering the importance of control of the seas in relation to the project of the Silk Road. On its maritime side, China is investing heavily in Indian and Pacific ports which it does not rule out using for military purposes (see ports in: Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan). Among the main opponents of this alliance are the United States, Japan and India, also against China's belligerent attitude, as we have seen.

Biden era: opportunities in a complicated scenario

Joe Biden's presidency will be marked by great challenges, both internal and external. We are facing a United States marked by a health crisis, with an increasingly polarized society and with a Economics whose recovery, despite the measures adopted, raises doubts as to whether it will be "in V" or "in W". In addition, relations with Latin America and Europe have been deteriorating as a result of the measures taken by President Trump. 

The relationship between China and the US has been fluctuating in recent years. The Obama Administration, aware of the importance that the Asia-Pacific region has been gaining, coupled with the opportunity that the Silk Road presents for Beijing to expand its economic and military dominance, proposed in its second term its Pivot to Asia policy, beginning to finance and provide aid to countries in the region. During the years of the Trump Administration, the relationship with Beijing has deteriorated quite a bit, putting Biden in a scenario where he will have to deal with a trade war, the degree program technology in the battle for 5G, as well as regional security and human rights issues.

The countries of the region are demanding an effective response from the American giant to contain China in which Washington's promise of a free and open navigation zone is realized. However, the United States has to be cautious, since, with the exception of Vietnam, the Philippines, and partly Indonesia and Singapore, the rest of the countries in the region do not feel the need for an American intervention with any urgency. However, with the exception of Cambodia, the rest of the countries do not approve of the possibility of Chinese hegemony either.

In general, experts suggest that in the midst of this storm, the new US president will adopt a cautious but continuist attitude, to say the least. Probably, in line with the Obama Administration, he will tend to bet on multilateralism, the alliances of subject economic and regional integration without exercising an authoritarian attitude, lowering the aggressiveness of the Trump Administration, but being firm in his stance. All this implies looking for different areas in which to cooperate, such as climate change, the reduction of Freedom of Navigation Missions or the increase in activities of Capacity Building.

A look into the near future

We will have to be attentive to the latest developments of the Trump Administration in relation to this conflict, as well as to the measures that Biden will adopt during his first months in office. However, everything points to the fact that Washington will adopt a cautious stance in this status of growing tension. As we have seen, Pompeo's trips have served the United States to reaffirm its presence in the area, assuming a leadership role, providing the response that some countries such as the Philippines desire. However, although, as has been said, it will be necessary to keep an eye on the coming months, with the instructions already established, it is most likely that Biden will continue the line of the Trump Administration, but with a bet on regional integration, multilateralism, diplomacy and economic cooperation in order to gain new support, strengthen its alliances and contain Beijing, thus justifying its presence in the area as the only power capable of uniting regional forces to avoid a feared Chinese hegemony.