▲ Protester throwing eggs at the image of President Xi Jinping during China's National Day [Studio Incendo, Wikipedia].

COMMENT / Albert Vidal

After spending a few weeks in the "Pearl of the Orient", one begins to realize how complex status is and the seemingly irreconcilable positions of the government and the protesters. Sadly, what started as a series of peaceful mass protests has turned, especially in the last few days, into pitched battles with police, looting of stores and public transport and clashes between mainlanders and protesters that has paralyzed the city and is seriously damaging much of the Economics of Hong Kong.

Images of protesters clearing the way for ambulances and picking up trash are no longer so common, and those chants in shopping malls are now accompanied by flag burning and vandalizing stores that (allegedly) have ties to people in the Hong Kong government or the Chinese Communist Party. Why have the protests evolved in this way?

1. The government's apparent passivity in the face of peaceful demands has contributed to this radicalization. Many think that, if peaceful demonstrations do not yield result, there is no choice but to resort to violence (a rather questionable conclusion).

2. Abuses by police and protesters have accelerated this escalation. In addition, clipped videos of police resorting to force, accompanied by powerful propaganda posters and hashtags have portrayed, and often exaggerated, the measures taken by the police.

3. Other factors include the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China (October 1, 2019) and the recently introduced EmergencyRegulationsOrdinance:ProhibitiononFaceCoveringRegulation, under which masks are prohibited at protests (with fines of USD 3,188 and 1 year imprisonment for those who violate it).

I think it may be useful to understand why people are protesting in Hong Kong. The mass demonstrations started in June 2019, as a movement initially opposing the project extradition law (Anti-ExtraditionLawAmendment Bill - ELAB). But it would be a mistake to fixate on that alone; the extradition bill was the straw that broke the camel's back. The glass was already quite full, before the summer of 2019.

I am going to refer to three causes that do not usually gain so much attention in the media. First, the price of housing in Hong Kong is exorbitant. A two-bedroom apartment sells for an average of HKD$6 million, or almost 1 million euros. No ordinary student is able to afford anything like that when they finish programs of study, and that means they can't leave home, get married and start a family. Or if they decide to do so, they go into debt for life. So many decide to rent government-subsidized apartments, but that's not such a pleasant option and usually causes quite a bit of stress because, after all, you don't live in your own property.

Second, many Hong Kong citizens are fed up with the slow pace of democratic reforms. The 2014 umbrella movement is intrinsically related to these frustrations.

Thirdly, many fear a date that is inexorably approaching: 2047. No one knows what will happen, but what is certain is that Hong Kong will lose its special status achieved in 1997. That means that China could absorb Hong Kong in its entirety, and there are people who fear a possible loss of freedoms and rights with the change of system. The vast majority of young people do not want that future, and understand that change will happen now, or never.

As for short-term future scenarios, different options are being considered. Some say that, given the economic impact the protests are having, many will eventually tire. Hotels are at rock-bottom levels, as are restaurants and Disneyland. Hong Kong relies heavily on the revenue that tourism brings in, so it is said that the protests will die on their own. I believe that, while the older people may eventually tire, the young people will not, because their future is at stake. There are surveys that say that up to 40% of students support the violent protests, and 90% view the central government with bad eyes.

Others say the violence will continue, especially after the escalation of October 1. That would invite an intervention by the Chinese army or the elite police (People'sArmedPolice), stationed in Shenzhen. This would be the solution "the hard way". In my opinion, it is unlikely that the army would intervene, as the Chinese Communist Party would be too discredited with "another Tiananmen". But the People'sArmedPolice is likely to intervene, as it is an elite and therefore non-lethal anti-riot force.

The third option is to divide the protesters. Carrie Lam conceded one of the five demands by withdrawing final the extradition law in September, and at the same time invited civil society representatives to voice their grievances in a series of ad hoc meetings. I believe this is a tool to separate the peaceful protesters, who would prefer dialogue with Lam. Meanwhile, the small group of radical protesters would lose the support of civil society, and the police would not have so many problems in repressing them, they would almost have carte blanche. This option is gaining relevance, especially after the blockade of the public transport system (MTR) for the first time in its 40 years of operation. Around 5 million people use it every day (Hong Kong has 7 million inhabitants), and the city has been literally paralyzed. This could even divide the protesters: those who prefer stability may begin to change their attitude and even confront the more radical ones.

Finally, it is important to avoid being a passive recipient of the media. From what I understand, the speech in China is that the U.S. and other Western countries are funding protesters to destabilize Hong Kong, especially to negotiate from a position of strength in the face of the trade war. I don't think it's entirely false that Western countries are funding some groups of protesters. But to say that this is the root of the protest seems to me to be an exaggeration. Of course, such an explanation is simple and attractive to uninformed people.

Regarding the Western point of view, it seems to me that emphasis is often placed on police violence and threats from China, preferring to ignore (not always!) the abuses committed by many protesters. Again, this is a biased view, and we should not accept it simply because it feels good. The real status is complex and more nuanced.

Despite the projections made, it is necessary to continue working on alternative solutions that will stop this chaos and present opportunities for dialogue and reconciliation among the actors involved: the government, the students, the violent and moderate protesters, the police and civil society in general. Patience, concessions and forgiveness: all this and much more will be necessary to rebuild this broken and fragmented society. Fortunately, it is never too late to start again.