Brasil como mediador global: Una oportunidad en la guerra de Ucrania

Brazil as a global mediator: An opportunity in the Ukrainian war

ARTICLE

20 | 12 | 2024

Texto

Putin has mentioned the South American country as one of the possible candidates for such a role; Trump's election may accelerate the cessation of hostilities

In the picture

President Lula da Silva speaks by video at the BRICS 2024 summit [Planalto].

The election of Donald Trump has put the possibility of progress in the cessation of hostilities in the Ukrainian war on the 2025 calendar. Conflict resolution usually relies on the attendance of one or more mediating countries that can count on the confidence of both contending sides. Lula da Silva's Brazil, interested in highlighting its own profile as a country that understands Russia and China and at the same time is part of the West, has offered its diplomatic services for this peace mission statement . So far Brazil has not been able to take steps in that direction, but says it is prepared for the changes that may occur as of January.

One of Donald Trump's promises to be reelected president of the United States has been to achieve a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Little is known at the moment about how he will raise the mechanisms of dialogue between the parties to achieve a resolution. For his part, Vladimir Putin has spoken about the possibility of mediating countries, and in September he referred to China, India or Brazil. All three have already indicated in the past their willingness to play such a role. Brazil sees itself as particularly well suited for such a role, as a power average.

Brazil's interest in becoming a mediator

Brazil has a reduced military capacity as it is located in a relatively safe geographical area due to the absence of external threats to its security. Within a multipolar international arena, Brazil presents itself as a power average and aspires to be one. This idea has been exploited by Lula da Silva through his 'Brazil is Back' strategy, which, wielding the concept of 'grande nação', defines Brazil as an agent with the capacity to actively address critical global issues and to be the architect of a rules-based international system. Rather, one of Brazil's major ambitions would be a reform of committee Security, claiming the lack of representativeness of the Global South and constituting part of the group of states requesting a permanent seat(G4).

To this end, Brazil has a approach based on non-alignment and strategic autonomy, so that it can position itself as a mediator in conflicts, displaying neutrality and credibility. Something it has already done both regionally and internationally (in 2010 it mediated in the Iran nuclear crisis, together with Turkey; although the negotiations did not culminate, Brazil gained a great deal of experience). During the 20th century, mediation efforts in global conflicts were almost reserved for European states. Today, the perception of their lack of neutrality (including Switzerland) encourages the countries of the Global South (in particular the IBSAs: India, Brazil and South Africa) to try to present themselves as shapers of the geopolitics of the new century.

On the other hand, Brazil is interested in stability in the multipolar scenario in order to have greater influence. Disagreements over the war in Ukraine undermine its regional leadership role, as divisions are created among those who are particularly aligned with Russia/China (see Venezuela) or with the United States (as is the case of Milei's Argentina). This also manifests itself on the Lusophony that Brazil wants to exploit to project itself internationally, since while Portugal or Cavo Verde support Ukraine, Russia is gathering support in Portuguese Africa; an example of this is the agreement defense with Sao Tomé.

Strengths and limitations of the mediator role

What most favors the role of mediator is Brazil's relationship with the parties involved. During the conflict, Brazil has been able to show itself as a neutral state, without dissociating itself from the defense of international law. Thus, it has voted in favor of the United Nations resolutions condemning the acts of aggression against Ukraine, but at the same time it has rejected the imposition of sanctions on Russia, considering them illegal because they were not approved by the Security Council ( committee ). As a member of the BRICS, Brazil maintains a good relationship with China and Russia, but at the same time its ties with the United States and the European Union are close, allowing it to present itself as a bridge between the West and the Global South.

The major limitation pointed out by some analysts would be the polarization within Brazil itself, alluding that while Lula thinks in a globalist way, Bolsonaro's more nationalist diary could confront that international role. In any case, although the lack of unity may translate into weakness, Brazil's foreign policy has always tended towards a continuity that other surrounding states cannot boast.

proposal Brazilian mediation agency

Brazil has made reference letter to follow a mediation strategy known as 'Friends of Peace' consisting of grouping states that together can advance peace. It did so in the regional framework itself, with the 1986 Rio group , which helped solve the crisis in Central America, or the 2003 Friends of Venezuela group at a time of institutional crisis of the Chavista regime. In an interview with CNN Lula seemed to want to establish a similar strategy regarding Ukraine: "We need to find interlocutors who can sit down with President Putin and show him the mistake he made in affecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine and we have to show Ukraine that it is necessary to learn to talk more so that we can avoid this war (...) it is necessary to create a group of countries to negotiate peace".

Lula's proposal was not of enthusiasm for the Kremlin, since it included accepting the territorial return. Neither was it for the United States or Ukraine, as the Brazilian president considered that Russia was responding to a NATO threat. However, Brazil could rethink its proposal by maintaining the 'Group of Friends' strategy, correctly choosing states that are perceived satisfactorily by the parties. However, Brazil should develop contacts at the highest level outside its own territory (in principle it could not host a final summit attended by Putin because Brazil ratified the Rome Statute and would be obliged to arrest the Russian president in case of his appearance there). One candidate to join the negotiating club is Turkey, given the precedent of the agreement del Grano, in the context of the same Ukrainian war; its good relationship with Russia despite being a NATO member, and the geographical proximity to the conflict.

Opportunity

Brazil's proposal to act as mediator in the Ukraine war represents a strategic opportunity to consolidate its global leadership and advance its ambition to reform the international order. Its neutral position, diplomatic experience and relations with the parties involved make it a plausible candidate , although it faces internal and external challenges that require careful approach .

By assuming a mediating role, Brazil could not only contribute to the resolution of one of the most serious conflicts of the century, but also strengthen its position as an actor core topic in the international system, demonstrating that the middle powers of the Global South can play a transformative role in 21st century global security.