In the picture
entrance to the venue in Baku, Azerbaijan, where COP29 took place
After two weeks of intense negotiations, COP29 - the most important annual climate policy event lecture - ended with a questionable agreement , which is evidence of the international community's insufficient progress in addressing the climate crisis.
Thirty-five hours late, the result was a commitment of 300 billion dollars per year by developed countries by 2035. A new goal that takes us even further away from the goals set at the Parisagreement under the COP21 of 2015. The representative of India, after the hammering that brought the negotiations to a close, objected to the hasty procedure adopted by the presidency generating doubts about the validity of the text C due to the consensus nature of these decisions.
The controversies surrounding the choice of Baku (Azerbaijan) as the venue for this lecture has raised questions similar to those of COP28 in Dubai (United Arab Emirates). The dependence of both countries on fossil fuels raises doubts about the leadership capacity and the limited progress in the text towards the transition to clean energy sources.
Climate finance
The negotiations of this lecture were focused on climate finance, specifically on the definition of a new quantified collective goal (NCQG).
During the first week of negotiations, developed countries delayed the conversation regarding the new figure that would replace the current figure goal set in 2009 of $100 billion per year by 2020. The expectation from developing countries development, particularly vulnerable to climate change, was for an estimate of at least $1.3 trillion by 2035 in direct funding from developed countries.
The first offer of $250 billion, made hours before the end of the last day of the lecture, was met with widespread discontent from countries at development. The notorious delay by developed countries in submitting this initial offer is linked to the lack of U.S. leadership in the negotiations following Donald Trump's recent victory in the battle for the White House.
Climate denialism and the criticized withdrawal from the Paris agreement during former President Trump's presidency limited the current administration's financial commitments along the lecture. According to climate expert Brandon Wu, "this is the denouement of the United States' 10-year strategy to shirk its obligation to provide climate finance to the global south."
The negotiations on financing culminated in the 'agreement' of 300 billion dollars per year by 2035, plus the figure of 1.3 trillion dollars in public, private and multilateral sources of financing, including loans. This last measure, far from settling the historical debt of developed countries in the face of climate change, generates further indebtedness in vulnerable countries that are already struggling for fair and equitable access to the international financial architecture.
Global Stocktake
The last COP28 marked a momentous milestone with the first-ever global stocktake, including a call for States to ensure a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The Global Stocktake (GST), or also referred to as global stocktake, is a process that allows interested countries to measure where there has been collective progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris agreement .
The goal of this COP was to follow up and implement the Global Stocktake agreement reached at COP28 to inform the next generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), with deadline in 2025. However, discussions stalled due to divergent views on limiting the conversation to finance issues or addressing the full spectrum of the global stocktake, including the transition away from fossil fuels.
Because of these disagreements, negotiators failed to reach consensus on the negotiating text. A large number of countries argued that avoiding explicit references to 'fossil fuels' would be a setback to the progress made in past negotiations. The Azerbaijani presidency suggested resuming the UAE Dialogue talks in Bonn (Germany) during the sessions of the subsidiary bodies towards COP30 in November 2025.
Carbon markets
After years of waiting for significant progress, COP29 adopted important steps towards the operationalization of article 6 of the Paris agreement . In the negotiations of article 6.2, consensus was reached on guidelines on carbon emissions trading between countries, known as Internationally Transferable Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs). One of the technical guidelines adopted establishes that once a credit has been traded, its authorization cannot be modified by the emitting country without prior agreement, which prevents transactions from being retroactively altered by States.
agreement development protocol New standards for the generation of carbon credits between States and entities operating under the Paris Credit Mechanism (PACM), which replaces the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), adopted at framework of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, were approved at article 6.4. The provisions agreed include standards related to carbon removals, methodologies for the generation of credits, and social and environmental safeguards. In addition, the agreement states that if inconsistencies are found between the crediting information provided and the technical body reports, countries will not be able to include these credits in their NDCs' reflected achievements.
The measures adopted under this item of diary give hope for the stalled negotiations on the NCQG during this COP. These measures will make it possible to mobilize financing from developed countries that have not fulfilled their climate commitments to countries on development with limited resources and ample potential for emission reductions.
Adaptation
goal Global Adaptation Group (GGA)
Progress made during last year's negotiations in Dubai culminated in the agreement on the framework for global climate resilience. This measure included the definition of targets and a biannual work program to establish indicators to measure progress on the global goal adaptation.
During this COP29, the negotiations made discreet progress due to discussions on the possible creation of indicators for the means of implementation. Countries at development justified the inclusion of these indicators by highlighting the importance of capacity building, technology transfer and financial attendance in the development of climate adaptation policies.
These discussions resulted in a commitment to develop 'implementation enablers' for non-quantifiable adaptation, which include means of implementation along with other issues such as transparency and governance. Negotiations on this item of diary were postponed to resume at future meetings.
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
agreement Despite the significant progress made during the talks, the Parties were not able to agree on a negotiating text, which was not included in the final decision. This text is intended to be used as the basis for discussions in Bonn in June 2025.
One of the most prominent announcements during the lecture occurred when Germany pledged a new contribution of 60 million euros to the Adaptation Fund, which, with this contribution, now totals 117 million euros. Demands on contributions to this fund have been categorical due to the difficulties it faces in reaching its annual goal of $300 million by 2024.
Losses and damages
Negotiators during this COP were called to undertake a review of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM). However, disagreements over two key issues - voluntary guidelines for incorporating loss and damage into NDCs, and the proposal of a report on the Status of Loss and Damage - prevented the adoption of a agreement.
The Loss and Damage Response Fund, which has a balance of US$674 million to date, has also received pledges of US$85 million from various States. However, this figure is still far short of the $580 billion in annual loss and damage projected for 2030.
Just transition
During COP28, progress on the recognition of labor rights was notable, despite stalled discussions on the scope of approach towards a just labor transition.
The language on human rights, its relationship to previously agreed mitigation targets and the goal of 1.5 Degrees were some of the issues that generated broad disagreements in the negotiations. This was compounded by differences regarding the work schedule for the development of plans and workshops, as well as the prioritization of mitigation plans over adaptation and finance measures.
Discussions related to the work Program on Just Transition closed without a agreement between the parties, an outcome that reveals the failure of the international community to ensure support for communities, workers and vulnerable sectors, such as agriculture, in the face of climate change.
Genre
Discussions on gender during this COP29 urged the extension of the Lima Agenda of work , agreed in 2014 during COP20. In principle, negotiations focused on the mandate renewal period with a duration of 5 or 10 years. In addition, developed countries showed particular interest in moving discussions on financing equity policies to the negotiation rooms on financing.
The large issue of clauses in the negotiating text, along with the terms 'intersectionality', men and women 'in all their diversity' and references to human rights, generated the rejection of Russia, Indonesia and the African group to the inclusion of these mentions. The final text, negotiated by the Chair hours before the end of the lecture, included the extension of the Lima Agenda work for a period of 10 years. However, the latter omitted references to the concepts listed above, retaining only specific mentions of human rights.
Presidential initiatives
The COP29 presidency launched a series of initiatives aimed at boosting the collective action of States in the face of the climate crisis. Despite the absence of major projects, the Azerbaijani presidency presented a program that gives continuity to the climate coalitions established by previous presidencies and international organizations, in order to avoid duplication of efforts in these plans.
During the lecture, it was announced the signature of the Declaration on Methane Reduction from Organic Waste, signed by approximately 50% of the methane emitting countries. This agreement represents a significant step forward in relation to the Global Commitment on Methane, launched during COP26 in Glasgow, which now has more than 100 signatories.
In addition, nearly 100 countries agreed to increase global energy storage capacity sixfold, following the recommendations of the COP28 global stocktake on the need to strengthen renewable energies and improve energy efficiency.
Conclusions
The election of Brazil to the presidency of COP30 in Belém generates high hopes for discussions less influenced by the oil interests that have defined the last two venues of lecture. Among the priorities of this next presidency are expected to be meeting expectations in the negotiations on the UAE Dialogue and advancing the transition away from fossil fuels, according to the conclusions of the first global stocktaking produced after COP28. It is also expected to address urgent issues, such as the adoption of the Gender Action Plan, following the extension of the mandate of the Lima Program of work reached at this COP29.
In the coming weeks, discussions on the development of a binding legal instrument to combat plastic pollution, including its impact on the marine environment, are expected to advance in the negotiations to be held in Busan (South Korea). It is crucial that decisive steps are taken towards the adoption of a agreement that addresses the production process within the plastic production cycle, setting clear limits on the amount of plastic that companies can produce.
On the other hand, it is also expected that during the first week of December the oral hearings of the International Court of Justice related to the advisory opinion of the Court on the responsibility of States, under international law, in the face of climate change will begin. This is a decisive step in the direction of recognizing the obligations of States in the face of the climate crisis.
In final terms, the results of this lecture are disappointing for the developing countries development, especially those vulnerable to climate change. In the face of high expectations regarding the definition of the new quantified collective goal , the responsibility assumed by developed countries through their offer is a mockery for the most affected nations, which have reacted with the slogan #NoAgreementIsBetterThanABadAgreement. The historical debt of these countries in mobilizing funds for the global south will remain an imminent obligation that must be paid sooner rather than later.