From conflict to cooperation: Argentina and the UK, with Trump as master of ceremonies

The Malvinas War, which due to its political and symbolic nature seemed to close any possibility of rapprochement between Argentina and the United Kingdom, resurfaces today to take on a new meaning in an unexpected context: the growing influence of China in the Southern Cone and the consequent concern of the United States. Now, both Argentine and British seem to be rethinking their ties from a more strategic than historical logic.

 The South Atlantic is increasingly emerging as the geopolitical nerve center of the American continent. Not only because it offers the only alternative to a Panama Canal that is increasingly vulnerable to drought, but also because it is the entrance to the southernmost sea lanes of the planet, as well as the point of projection over a continent rich in resources and with a geostrategic location of utmost importance, and which, so far, remains outside the direct control of any country: Antarctica.

China's growing presence in the Southern Cone has become a serious concern for Washington. The instructions The Chinese instructions in the Antarctic, some of them in partnership with Russia; a Strait of Magellan increasingly transited and harassed by Chinese illegal fishing fleets, thus becoming one more of the important coercive cards of the Asian giant in its negotiations with the world, and a wave of millionaire investments in scientific and military instructions , ports and commercial factories extending across South America, turn Beijing not only into an uncomfortable partner , but also into the greatest threat to the balance of power in the region.

The Argentine military gap

Although the United States is doing enough to try to safeguard its interests in the western hemisphere, it could use some help, especially in the far south. It has been a long time since Washington had such a close ally on the continent as President Javier Milei, who in 2024 announced the installation of a joint military base in Tierra del Fuego. For its part, Great Britain has stationed in the Falklands the supersonic fighter Typhoon FGR4 and the ship HMS Forth Patrol.

However, among the Trump Administration's concerns, the poor state of Argentina's Armed Forces stands out as urgent. agreement to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute(SIPRI), Argentina is the South American country that spends the lowest proportion of its GDP on defense. Almost 90% of the budget that goes to the Armed Forces is used to pay the salaries and pensions of its nearly 72,000 members, which limits the capacity to invest in the maintenance and development of ships, aircraft (mostly transport and training) and vehicles. Milei has set a goal to change this budget structure, which reflects a military system that is administrative rather than operational. The president has pledged to increase military expense from 0.5% to 2.0% of GDP over the next seven years.

There are four main factors that explain the deterioration of the Argentine military: First, the refusal of past administrations to invest in the country's defense. Second, the priorities of the electorate: allocating significant resources to the Armed Forces is difficult when public attention is focused on health and Education. The average Argentine does not see the sense of having a developed army, since despite diplomatic disputes there are no conflicts with neighboring countries, and defending the legitimate right over the Malvinas by means of war seems an extremely remote possibility. Third, the historical perception of the military institution: the president has proposed to use the Navy to face internal threats such as drug trafficking and organized crime. However, for a country that suffered the violence and pain of the dictatorship, these proposals are reminiscent of old times and generate social distrust.

The fourth and last factor is perhaps the most decisive: isolation from the world military market. Since the Falklands War, the United Kingdom has blocked the sale of arms with British parts to Argentina. The five largest companies in the sector -Lockheed Martin, Boeing, BAE System, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman- have British materials, making this restriction a practically absolute veto. This has frustrated the southern country's efforts to modernize its capabilities and is slowly cornering it into looking for alternatives in Chinese production. The United States fears that the Argentine military gap could become a new entrance for Beijing in the South Atlantic. Alarmed by this status, Washington urges Great Britain to find conciliatory spaces with Argentina for the harmonization of military relations.

Now the planets seem to be aligning to find common ground for a new strategic agreement in the South Atlantic. Milei's unusual perspective on the determination of the Islands ("We seek to make Argentina such a power that they [the Malvinas] prefer to be Argentine and that it doesn't even take deterrence or persuasion to achieve that," he said in April 2025 at the Falklands Heroes Tribute), the U.S. interest in Argentine military modernization and the British desire to improve the islanders' way of life, makes for increasingly warm relations between the two sides.

New realities

A few months after Milei assumed the position, British defense attachés visited the Ministry of Defense in Buenos Aires for the first time in three years. Half a year later, the foreign ministers of the two countries met and organized a trip for the families of the fallen soldiers in the Malvinas to visit the graves there. They also undertook to share fishing data and to resume direct flights from Argentina to the islands. All this goes hand in hand with an intensified dialogue on defense subject . An Argentine delegation visited London in January and a reciprocal action is expected from the British to the Argentine capital.

The UK is interested in an agreement, but is cautious in its moves. While it shares U.S. concerns about the South Atlantic, Argentina's insistence on its legitimate claim to the Malvinas makes the islanders wary of an agreement with Argentina. "We would not be too comfortable with the UK supplying military equipment to Argentina," said Leona Roberts of the Falklands Executive committee , according to 'The Economist'. Argentine acceptance of the British presence in the region would facilitate the process of cooperation, not only on security factors, but also on economic and scientific aspects. However, this is extremely difficult.

Despite the concerns of the Malvinas, few see Argentina as a real threat to the stability of the islands. "Argentina is still far from posing a serious threat to the Falkland Islands. A combination of obsolete equipment, limited resources and diplomatic constraints continues to hold it back," wrote the UK Defense Journal. Alejandro Corbacho, military historian at the University of CEMA in Buenos Aires, subscribes to these ideas: "Great Britain would wipe us off the planet", he answered when asked about a possible military altercation between both nations.

In light of these perceptions, it would appear that the reason for the British embargo is more aligned to political considerations than to the initial motive of the embargo: "not to harm the defense and security interests of the United Kingdom". There are three main reasons why Britain would be more willing to reconsider its restrictions. The first, the opportunity to gain a customer with projection and very close to the United States; the second, the increasing diversification of countries manufacturing military components; and the third, to pay attention to Washington, taking into account President Trump's constant economic and strategic radicalization.

U.S. pressure for a new agreement carries a lot of weight. From the now War department , strong support has been offered for the modernization of the Argentine Navy. "Argentina is once again a reliable actor and protagonist in the defense of peace, freedom and global security," declared Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, after the signature of the understanding for the acquisition of Stryker armored vehicles by Argentina. "Our relationship is at its best [...] fundamentally in defense", replied Defense Minister Luis Petri in his meeting at the Pentagon. In this context of rapprochement, a C-130H Hercules TC-60 was donated last year. Despite U.S. efforts to encourage the purchase of Western capabilities, the British embargo makes this difficult. This inflexibility could strengthen those who believe that, once the Milei stage is over, Argentina's future, in terms of armament and politics, lies with China and not with the West.

Alternatives to inflexibility

In the past, Argentina's rapprochement with China has presented real risks to the United States. In 2023, a Chinese business went so far as to present a memorandum of understanding to invest $1.25 billion in a port in Tierra del Fuego province, Argentina's entrance to the Strait of Magellan. This project fell through, but the Chinese, who operate a space station in Patagonia, insist on their interest in the region. Under the administration of Alberto Fernandez, Argentina was close to investing more than US$ 640 million in the purchase of 12 Chinese JF-17 Thunder fighters and 40 8x8 armored vehicles, an operation that fell through with the inauguration of Javier Milei. Likewise, in 2021, weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, the Kirchnerist government signed an agreement with the Russian Ministry of Defense for the training of Argentine troops.

Considering this scenario, then President Joe Biden pressured Britain to allow Argentina to buy a batch of the latest generation F-16 aircraft, however, since the ejection seats of these models were British-made, the British were reluctant and forced the parties to look for alternatives. Finally, Argentina purchased 24 F-16s that were 40 years old and without any British components for $301 million. In this exchange, the U.S. government also expressed interest in lifting export controls. However, a British government spokesman stated that, for the time being, there are no plans to review the UK's export policy for Argentina.

Milei's future

Argentina's domestic politics continues to be a major difficulty for the stability of relations, not only with the UK, but also with other Western countries. Although Argentina appointed a new Foreign Minister in October, with pro-NATO and pro-EU positions and very far from aligning with BRICS and China, the Government's priorities these days are focused on the ongoing electoral process. In September, Peronism crushed Milei, obtaining 47.28% over 33.71% in the legislative votes in the province of Buenos Aires. Argentine stocks on Wall Street registered drops of up to 10% and JP Morgan's country risk indicator exceeded 1,400 basis points.

Britain is worried about who will succeed Milei. In 2016, when Mauricio Macri was president, there was already an attempt to re-establish relations, but this failed after the Peronists returned to power, something that at first looked unlikely. London is probably hesitant to help Argentina modernize its Armed Forces only for this to happen again. Whether in 2027 or 2031, Milei will leave the position and the uncertainty as to whether his party will remain in power is great.

However, the second administration of Donald Trump, characterized by a style not very attached to orthodoxy, has found in Javier Milei an ideological and strategic partner of great proximity. Likewise, the predominant logic of the Argentine president's foreign policy is an unwavering alignment with the United States, something that also finds echoes in Great Britain. It will depend on the pressure that the White House decides to exert for a rapprochement between its two allies, which would be aimed at confronting the growing Chinese presence in the region.

* Ignacio Milman studied International Relations and works in the private sector, with an interest in transatlantic ties.