From the success of super-minister Sérgio Moro to the failure of 'hugs, not bullets': two different signs in the first year of populist presidents in Brazil and Mexico

• AMLO promised to end the continuous annual rise in homicides recorded in the terms of his two predecessors, but throughout 2019 he accentuated it

• Improved figures in Brazil are overshadowed by an increase in accidental deaths in police operations and issue of temporary inmates in prisons

• In the first months of 2020 in both Mexico and Brazil homicides have increased, but confinement by Covid-19 could affect the annual statistic

▲ The Mexican president at the launch of the National Guard in June 2019 [Gov. of Mexico].

report SRA 2020 / Túlio Dias de Assis and Marcelina Kropiwnicka[PDF version].

MAY 2020-One of Latin America's best-known conflicts is its high level of violence, often as a consequence of the strong presence of organized crime. Within this regional paradigm, not all leaders face the problem of crime in the same way. While some opt for a more passive policy, others prefer to bet on the iron fist, despite the risks it may entail. 2019 was the first year in office of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Jair Bolsonaro, populist leaders of opposing ideologies, who came to power barely a month apart. In Brazil homicides went down, in Mexico they went up.

Mexico

Throughout 2019 there were a total of 35,588 victims of intentional homicide in Mexico. This means that, as 2019 came to an end, an all-time high in homicides at the national level was left behind. In doing so, President López Obrador, known by the abbreviation AMLO, failed to fulfill his electoral promise to reduce violence. Although he maintained his approval rating at 72% at the end of 2019, his acceptance has been damaged afterwards by his management of the coronavirus health crisis.

Three previous administrations had favored military combat against drug cartels, but López Obrador established a divergent security strategy upon his arrival, focusing more on the self-described approach of "abrazos, no balazos" (hugs, not bullets). This approach led to the release of Ovidio Guzman, son of Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman, which the government argued for the desire to avoid an escalation of cartel violence. In addition, AMLO created the National Guard, a new security force that has been deploying tens of thousands of troops, formerly belonging to the Army and Federal Police, to tackle organized crime in areas core topic throughout the country. While the new strategy aims to strengthen security and tackle violence in the cities, it has so far failed to curb the barbarism. The president has even reneged on another promise and announced that for the time being the Army will remain on the streets sharing the role of citizen security.

The issue of intentional homicides in 2019 was 34,582, up 2.5% from 33,743 the previous year; femicides reached 1,006, up 10.3% from 912 in 2018, according to the National Public Security System (SNSP). Although in previous years, during the term of Presidents Enrique Peña Nieto, there were greater increases - the previous increases were 15.7% (from 2017 to 2018), 26.5% (from 2016 to 2017) and 25.1% (from 2015 to 2016) - the 2019 homicides represent the highest overall figure recorded in the last two decades. The figures of Felipe Calderón's (PAN) term, the first to take the Army to the streets to fight the narco, were surpassed in Peña Nieto's (PRI) term and now there has been an increase again in López Obrador's (Morena) first year. All three criticized the management in security of their predecessors and all three failed in their purpose (AMLO at least for the moment).

On average, 2,881 murders were committed per month in 2019; the highest issue recorded was 2,993 murders in June and the lowest issue was 2,731 in April. The state with the most homicides was Guanajuato, followed by the state of Mexico and leave California. In terms of homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants, Colima ranked first, with 98.3, followed by leave California (80.6) and Chihuahua (68.7).

Much of the violence that has occurred across the country is directly related to gang formations and drug traffickers, and the struggle for dominance of local markets. It is therefore not surprising that Colima, home to the strategic port of Manzanillo, a hotbed of illicit activities, is the state at the top of the blacklist. In addition, there is partnership between criminal groups on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border for the mutual supply of drugs and weapons. Seventy percent of homicides are committed with firearms, many of which have been smuggled across the border. The status not only undermines security in Mexico but also in the United States. 

Donald Trump has urged Mexico to "wage war" against the cartels. In November he announced he was officially labeling them as terrorist organizations. "The United States is ready, willing and able to engage and do the work quickly and effectively," Trump tweeted at the time. However, he ended up postponing that proclamation at the request of the Mexican president.

In the first quarter of 2020, homicides continued their upward trend, with 269 homicides more than in the same quarter of the previous year. Although the social distancing measures adopted during the Covid-19 crisis may change the trend in the second semester, the lower investment in security to direct the public expense towards the health and economic sectors may push up the issue murder rate.

Brazil

In contrast to Mexico, Brazil has achieved a series of more positive results, following a trend to leave already experienced in the last year of Michel Temer's presidency. This is mainly due to the measures taken by the until recently Minister of Justice and Public Security Sérgio Moro, former federal judge in charge of Operation Car Wash. Bolsonaro's choice of Moro as minister was not random, since Moro is considered by a good part of the population as a hero in the fight against corruption, due to the several trials he led against members of Odebrecht and of the political class , including the one that would lead to the imprisonment of former president Lula da Silva. Having promised in the campaign a tough hand against crime and corruption, Bolsonaro decided to merge the Ministries of Justice and Public Security and offer Moro its leadership.

The decision was a wise one and one of those that best sustained the Brazilian president's popularity in his first year in office. test of this was the significant drop in the issue of violent crimes, among which a 19% drop of issue of homicides stands out. This is one of the most worrying indicators in Brazil, since it is the country with the highest issue gross annual homicides in the world. In 2018 homicides were 51,558, while in 2019 they dropped to 41,635, a decrease of 19.2%. Excluding larcenies from these figures, the decrease was from 49,120 to 29,750.

In addition, cargo thefts increased by 35% and drug seizures increased by 81%. In Rio de Janeiro, one of the most problematic states in terms of security, larcenies (robbery followed by death) were reduced by 34% and seizures of illegal weapons increased by 32%.

One of the measures that contributed most to this decline was the integration of the different state security force institutions at all levels: federal, state and municipal. This has allowed for a higher level of coordination, especially significant in the area of intelligence services, whose information now flows more easily between institutions. In addition, in this same area, it is worth noting the investments made in Big Data and intelligence systems. Main attention has been paid to facial recognition and video surveillance systems.

Another important policy has been the transfer of gang leaders to more isolated prisons, thus preventing them from communicating and coordinating with gang members on the outside.

Finally, mention should be made of the so-called "anti-crime package": a series of laws and reforms to the penal code that increase the power of the security forces to act, in addition to establishing harsher penalties for violent crime, organized crime and corruption. The project C finally approved by the Brazilian Parliament is far from Moro's original proposal , but it has contributed, albeit to a lesser extent, to the drop in crime.

On the other hand, these positive figures were accompanied by a worrying increase in accidental deaths in police operations, with several cases of children killed by stray bullets in shootouts between drug gangs and security forces going viral. Additionally, the issue number of provisional prisoners in Brazilian jails increased by 4.3% compared to the previous year. All this has encouraged criticism from most of the civil service examination and various human rights NGOs, both national and international.

In the first two months of 2020, 548 more deaths were recorded than in the same period of the previous year. This spike occurred in 20 of Brazil's 27 federal states, from which it can be inferred that this is a general trend rather than a sporadic episode. However, due to the mandatory quarantine library porter in several states and municipalities, homicides fell again, making any extrapolation for the current year as a whole difficult. Another factor to consider for 2020 is the recent resignation of Minister Moro; without him, the likelihood that the reforms initiated in the first year will continue is greatly reduced.