Prepare to project "credible combat power" in new era of "strategic competition"
If the Arctic was an important theater in the Cold War, in the new geopolitical tension its progressive thawing even accentuates its strategic characteristics. The U.S. Defense department adapted in 2019 its Arctic strategy to the new approaches of rivalry with Russia and China, and then its concretization has corresponded to the forces most involved in that region: in 2020 the Air Force presented its own document and in this 2021 the Navy has done so, involving also the Marine Corps and the Coast Guard. The guidelines seek to ensure the projection of "credible combat power".
The crew of the submarine USS Connecticut at the ICEX 2020 exercises [US Navy].
February 17, 2021
article / Pablo Sanz
The Arctic is important because of the natural wealth still to be exploited in its subsoil (22% of the world's hydrocarbon deposits, which in terms of oil would be 90 billion barrels) and because of its strategic position on the globe: the two great continental masses of Eurasia and America converge there. The opening of new maritime routes thanks to the progressive thawing of the ice is not only a commercial advantage, but also makes it possible to act militarily more quickly in this and other scenarios.
There are many countries interested in promote cooperation and multilateralism in the region, and this is done from the committee Arctic; however, the complex security environment of the Arctic Circle has led the major powers to set strategies to defend their respective interests. In the case of the United States, the department of Defense updated in June 2019 the Arctic strategy it had developed three years earlier, in order to bring it into line with the new approach that emerged with the 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) and carried over to the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS), documents that leave behind the era of combating international terrorism and elevate to "rivalry" the relationship with China and Russia, in a new geopolitical status of "strategic competition".
The Pentagon's Arctic strategy has then been fleshed out by the Air Force in a report of its own, presented in July 2020, and then by the Navy, in January 2021. Along the same general lines, these approaches framework aim at three objectives:
1) As an "Arctic nation", because of its sovereignty over Alaska, the United States must guarantee security in its territory and prevent threats to other parts of the country from polar positions.
2) The United States intends to establish and lead alliances and agreements in the Arctic in accordance with international law to maintain a status of stability in the area.
3) The United States undertakes to preserve free navigation and free overflight in the Arctic Circle, while limiting Russian and Chinese interference contrary to such general freedom of access and transit.
To achieve these objectives, the Pentagon has defined three mechanisms for action:
(i) Raise awareness of the importance of the area: the ability of department Defense to detect threats in the Arctic is a prerequisite for deterring or responding to activities of strategic competitors in the region.
ii) Enhance and promote operations in the Arctic: department Defense will enhance the ability of its forces to operate in the Arctic through regular exercises and deployments to the region, both independently and with allies. Some exercises will be conducted within the NATO context while others will be bilateral or multilateral.
iii) Strengthen the rules-based order governing the Arctic: department Defense will continue to work with U.S. allies to maintain and strengthen the freedom of navigation and overflight regime. This will help deter aggressive acts in the area.
From the new NDS the Defense department states that the U.S. Armed Forces must be able to solve the main problem detected -the erosion of the competitive edge against China and Russia-, being able to "stop and, if necessary, defeat aggression from a great power". To this end, it must develop a "more lethal, resilient, agile and ready" force, which in the Arctic region must achieve "credible deterrent power".
U.S. military doctrine warns that the "strategic buffer" that the Arctic "is eroding," becoming "an avenue of threat to national territory due to the advances of competing great powers". In addition, it "hosts critical launching points for global power projection and increasingly accessible natural resources". However, it warns that "the immediate possibility of conflict is leave".
Thus, within the context of implementing the national defense strategy, the Pentagon proclaims that it will continue to prepare its units in order to ensure that the Arctic is a secure and stable region in which U.S. national interests, regional security, and the work joint efforts of the nations involved to address common problems are safeguarded.
The U.S. Air Force and Navy documents outline supporting measures to ensure the ability to deter hostile actions in the Arctic by all other regional competitors in the area, while prioritizing a cooperative and continuous approach that preserves the rules by which the Arctic is governed.
Air and sea
Because the Gulf of Mexico current is directed to the European side of the Arctic, the North American side suffers even harsher environmental conditions, with less maritime infrastructures and land routes. This makes the weight of the Air Force in the defense of this space clearly greater, contributing 80% of the resources that the Pentagon dedicates to the region.
Its performance is based on several locations. Six of them are in Alaska: the large airborne instructions at Elmendorf-Richardson and Eielson; Clear's early missile notice facility and Eareckson missile defense radar; and other points for coordination, training and survival school. Two others are in Greenland: the Raven training range for LC-130 aircraft and the Thule compound for early missile notice . In Canada, it has a system of some fifty radars shared by NORAD (North American Air Defense Command).
The Air Force intends to improve these capabilities, as well as command, control, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C3ISR) capabilities. It is also set to goal enhance refueling conditions. Once the F-35 deployment to Eielson is complete, Alaska will host more advanced fighters than any other location in the world.
For its part, the U.S. Navy is positioning itself around the concept of the "Blue Arctic", thus graphically expressing the progressive homologation of what has historically been an impassable white cap with the rest of the world's oceans. The Navy plans to increase its presence, both with manned ships and with new unmanned vessels. In its strategic document, it warns that the research in new capabilities "may not be fully realized and integrated into the naval force for at least a decade".
The increased naval presence in the region will also be realized through increased operations already routinely conducted in the Arctic by the Second and Sixth Fleets and through synchronization with the Marine Corps and Coast Guard based in Alaska. To ensure that operational increase, the Navy will undertake an upgrade of docking facilities and attendance of its ships.
The Navy document, which does not specify specific preparations, also does not include the Coast Guard's announced plans for a new fleet of icebreakers. There are currently only two in service and the plan is to build three medium and three heavy vessels by 2029.
With all this, Washington is trying to confront the accelerated effort being made by its most direct competitors. In July 2020, the State department warned about the growing interest in the Arctic by Russia and China, whom it accused of engaging in "increasingly aggressive" competition and lamented that those countries that want "peace, freedom and democracy", including the United States, have been "naïve".
Russia and China
Russia has the largest land mass and population within the Arctic Circle, a region from which Russia derives 25% of its GDP. No other country has such a permanent military presence above the 66th parallel; nor does any other nation have so many icebreaker ships, a fleet Moscow wants to increase with fourteen new ships, one of them nuclear-powered.
Russia formed its joint strategic command of the Northern Fleet in December 2014. "Since then, Russia has gradually strengthened its presence by creating new Arctic units, refurbishing old infrastructure and airfields and establishing new military instructions along the coast. There is also a concerted effort to establish a network of air and coastal defense missile systems, early notice radars, rescue centers and variety of sensors," as report strategic Arctic department of the U.S. Defense notes. The United States also warns that Russia is attempting to regulate maritime traffic in the Northern Route in ways that may exceed its authority under international law.
China, on the other hand, without being an Arctic nation (Mohe, its northernmost city is at the same latitude as Philadelphia or Dublin) wants to be a major player in the region. It is an observer country of the committee Arctic and claims a "near-Arctic nation" status that Washington does not recognize. In 2018 it produced the first white paper on its Arctic policy and has integrated that area into its New Silk Road initiative.
China's diplomatic, economic and scientific activities in the Arctic have grown exponentially in recent years. At the moment its operational presence is limited: it has one Ukrainian-built polar-capable icebreaker (the Xuelong; it has recently built the Xuelong 2), which has sailed Arctic waters on operations that China describes as research expeditions.
The opening of Arctic sea routes is in China's interest, as it could shorten trade shipment times to Europe and reduce its dependence on flows through the Strait of Malacca, a particularly vulnerable point.
Lately, China has been engaging in increasing diplomatic activities with the Nordic countries and has research stations in Iceland and Norway; it also exploits mineral resources in Greenland. This highlights Beijing's growing interest in consolidating its presence in the Arctic despite its remoteness from the region.
Its great financial capacity, moreover, means that Russia is counting on China to develop energy and infrastructure projects in the region, as in the case of a liquefied natural gas facility in Yamal. According to Frédéric Laserre, an expert in Arctic geopolitics at Laval University, Russia has no choice but to accept Chinese capital to build and develop the infrastructure needed to exploit the resources because of Western economic sanctions.
