[Peter Frankopan, The New Silk Roads. The present and the future or the World, Alfred A. Knopf. New York, 2019, 285 p.]
review / Nerea Álvarez
The concept of the New Silk Road, with its English names of OneBeltOne Road (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has already settled among the international community. In a short time the project launched by Xi Jinping in 2013 has been established and all its foundations have been unfolding.
Peter Frankopan's book gives a detailed account of the countries participating in this global project and the economic, political and social aspects of the main initiatives that make it up. Although there are those who are still waiting for some developments to take place in order to assess whether the original Chinese idea has really taken shape, Frankopan considers it to be substantially underway, reaching a large part of the planet: "The Silk Roads (always in the plural) are everywhere, not only in Central Asia, but crossing the whole of Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas".
The young British historian does not focus on a single area of the globe, but addresses all those countries that have opened their doors to the project most ambitious communication networks of mankind. He begins by giving a brief history of the world economic development until globalization has reached all nations, and then analyzes the exceptional growth experienced by China between 1990 and 2017. With that we finally get into the strategy final of this global scale plan.
The New Silk Roads has a message to convey: the world is changing, and it is changing very fast. Part of Europe has been driven to the extreme right, migratory movements have caused a rise in nationalism and the Union is breaking up. The United States is adopting increasingly aggressive measures towards allied countries and has also closed its borders to citizens from Iran, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. The isolationism and fragmentation of the West is in alarming contrast to China's "win-win" path of cooperation and attendance mutual cooperation. And it is not just about cooperation with China. Asia is coming together, as evidenced by the cooperation projects between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, and especially the Azerbaijan-Eastern Europe pipeline. Afghanistan, Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan have already come together to collaborate in the future in the fight against extremism, terrorism, organized crime and drug trafficking.
However, Frankopan warns that this growing Asian union is sometimes based on promises that are not kept, due to logistical difficulties or to the economic, political and social weaknesses of the countries in the region. The problem of water scarcity, for example, which is a resource of great need in Central Asia, has caused various conflicts both nationally (Iran in 2018) and internationally (India and Pakistan).
"The roads to Beijing", the third chapter of the book, focuses on China as the orchestrator of this strategy, presented by Xi as international cooperation to promote friendship between nations and create a better future together. While, on the one hand, OBOR is seen as a product of rapid Chinese evolution, on the other hand, the incredible impact it has had nationally for all other countries is perceived. Frankopan pauses to analyze the impact within society itself, which truly sees a new future in the construction of so many infrastructure works.
One of the most interesting analyses offered by the author concerns China's real role in Africa. How does this giant invest in the continent? The "five-no" policy is what has given it the greatest cooperation in Africa: no interference, no imposition of wills or political conditions and no unfair profits from investments in African countries. It is worth mentioning the great communication work being carried out by China in this part of the world, much more efficient than what the bureaucratic European Union can offer.
Routes to rivalry
Now that the Silk Roads are beginning to become a material fact, the discussion about the new world order and the hegemony of the United States is more present than ever. It is not surprising that the American power has always looked askance at China, and this is exposed in the book.
President Trump's moves on Asia have provoked widespread criticism, such as his rejection of the Trans-Pacific association Treaty at the beginning of his term in office. Behind this agreement there is much at stake: the choice between two sides, major investments and a shift in forces in the region, cornering the red dragon or making it easier for it to have new outlets to the sea and greater access to natural resources. Every country counts in turning the balance. The existence of various regional organizations does not financial aid advance integration. If a merger of these organizations were to result in something like an Asian European Union, which would be in favor of China, the expansion of the OBOR would be simple. The big problem is India, the big neutral piece that is not in favor of either of the two adversaries, although it is more sympathetic to American protection. Frankopan evaluates the possibility of a project not so focused on China and its interests, in order to attract the Indians, an idea that other authors have also considered in recent years. However, India remains very alert to how China acts, and will not wait to be cornered. There have been a number of frictions between China and India, especially over the ocean outlet and agreements with countries such as Pakistan and the Maldives.
This major work offers a broad and detailed vision of the world panorama with respect to China's strategy. Critical of the isolationism of the West, which gives it a less relevant future, and enthusiastic about the idea of globalization in the world's communication channels, Frankopan does not allow himself to be carried away by appearances. He warns the reader that the Chinese are pursuing their own interests: the need to obtain natural resources, such as those from Africa, and to protect their trade routes are just some of the reasons that prompted them to take the Silk Roads a step further. The British historian is not fooled by unconditional loans to insolvent countries, nor does he turn a deaf ear to China's desire to expand its own worldview and become the leader of the new order. We are already in the century of Asia, and so China prepares us for the future.
