▲ Propaganda poster extolling the figure of Qaddafi, near Ghadames, in 2004 [Sludge G., Wikipedia].

May 11, 2020

essay / Paula Mora

On October 20, 2011, Colonel Muammar Muhamad Abu-Minyar Qaddafi was assassinated, ending a dictatorial regime that lasted more than forty years. That date signified hope, freedom and democracy, or at least those were the aspirations of many of those who contributed to change in Libya. However, the reality today, nine years later, is almost unimaginable for those rebels who on October 23, 2011 thought that their children could grow old in a democracy. The civil war that the country has been suffering since then has led to the disintegration of the nation. To understand this, it is paramount to understand the very nature of Libyan political power, totally different from that of its neighbors and its former metropolises: tribalism.

Libyan tribalism has three characteristics: it is contractual, since it is based on permanent negotiations; the territorial instructions of the peoples have been moving towards the cities, but the ties have not been loosened, and the territorial extension of these peoples exceeds the borders of Libya. The Libyan territory is composed of 90% desert, which has led to the persistence of tribal power. The native peoples have fought, and continue to fight, for territorial control and harmony of their territories, which is achieved through traditional alliances renegotiated from time to time between the three main regions of the country: Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezan.

Tuareg tropism

The Bedouin culture and its mythology from pre-colonial trans-Saharan cave times explain why Qaddafi focused his policy on the Sahara and North Africa. These peoples considered the desert as a means of communication, not as an obstacle or a border. Under the dictatorship, Berber customs and speech were protected and promoted.

The Tuareg are a Berber people of nomadic tradition spread over five African countries: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali and Niger. They have their own language and customs. In Libya, they occupy the southwestern territory, along the borders of Algeria, Tunisia and Niger. The dictator proclaimed on numerous occasions his affinity with this people, even claiming to belong to this lineage on his mother's side. He considered them allies of his Pan-Africanist project .

Qaddafi did not see himself as the leader of the movement, but as a "guide" of the revolution. However, with the passage of time, this revolutionary vision was tempered into a realistic and pacifying vision. This change was mainly due to the inability of the Tuareg to overcome internal divisions (tribes) and their willingness to abandon the armed struggle. The consequences were that what started as a national and social struggle degenerated into drug and arms trafficking.

Italian colonialism

In April 1881, France occupied Tunisia. This provoked resentment in Italy because the regency of Tunisia was intended as a natural extension of Italy, given that 55,000 Italians resided in the territory. In view of this status, and to avoid a confrontation with France, Italy then decided to create a Libyan project . In 1882, Italy, Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire created the Triple Alliance. As a consequence, France opposed Italy's Libyan project .

Faced with France's civil service examination its plans in Libya, Italy sought compensation in the Red Sea and in 1886 tried, unsuccessfully, to conquer Ethiopia. But the Italian nationalism of the time was not about to give up, as it aspired to create "a greater Italy". After the Ethiopian victory, only two African alternatives remained: Morocco, which had already been practically colonized by France, or the Turkish Regency in Tripoli, which had been established since 1858.

Finally, Italy decided in favor of the latter and in 1902 sought the support of France to carry out its project. Under the Triple Alliance compromise, it offered neutrality on the shared border of the Alps in case of war and the Withdrawal of the Moroccan project . Paris was not interested, but Russia offered in 1908 its support to Italy to weaken the Ottoman Empire. Thus began the Italo-Turkish war. The Italian pretext was the alleged mistreatment of the settlers in Libya by the Turkish regime, to which it gave an ultimatum. Under Austro-Hungarian mediators, the Turks agreed to transfer control of Libya to Italy, a move that Italy considered a Turkish maneuver that only sought to gain time to prepare for war. On September 29, 1911, Italy declared war on the Ottoman Empire. This had important consequences for the Triple Alliance, as Austria-Hungary feared that the Libyan conflict would escalate into a direct conflict with the Ottoman Empire, while Germany was faced with the dilemma of having to choose sides, as it enjoyed good relations with both sides. On October 18, 1912, due to the open dangers on different fronts, the Ottoman Empire decided to sign the Treaty of Lausanne-Ouchy through which it ceded Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and the Dodecanese islands to Italy.

During World War I, Italy was part of the Triple Entente, so the Ottoman Empire did not declare war on it. The threat to Italian control of Libya was not so much among its European enemies, but among the population of the African country itself. Taking advantage of the war, the Sanûsiya (a Muslim religious order founded under the Ottoman Empire that opposed colonization) began to attack the Italian army. These rebels were gaining territory, until Italy's allies went on the offensive. On August 21, 1915, the day Italy switched to the Allied side, the tactics changed. Although also offering support, Italy's new allies were dealing with insurgencies in their colonies, and were mainly concerned with guarding their borders to prevent insurgents from getting through and spreading independence ideas.

On April 17, 1917, the emir Idris As-Sanûsi, an ally of the Ottoman Empire, realizing the proximity of the Allied victory, signed with Italy the Pact of Acroma, by which Italy recognized the autonomy of Cyrenaica and in exchange the emir accepted Italian control of Tripolitania.

Geographical distribution of ethnicities in Libya [Wikipedia].

Colonial independence

The Second World War played a core topic in Africa, as it encouraged nationalism on the continent. Italy, allied with Germany, tried between 1940 and 1942 to occupy the Suez Canal through the Libyan border, but the goal was not achieved.

In 1943, Libya fell into the hands of the Free France (of Charles de Gaulle) and England: the former administered Fezán; the latter, Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. At the end of the war, and with Italy changing sides in the course of the war, Italy proposed a tripartite division of Libya. The United States and the Soviet Union opposed this, and stipulated that the territory would remain under the tutelage of the United Nations (UN). Two political positions were then opposed in Libya: on the one hand, the "progressives", who defended the creation of a unitary democratic state, and on the other hand, the original peoples of Cyrenaica, who defended a kingdom whose leader would be Mohammed Idris As-Sanûsi, the leader of the Sanûsiya.

On November 21, 1949, through Resolution 289, the United Nations set the independence of Libya for January 1, 1952. Without taking into account any geographical, historical, religious, cultural and political reality, the UN imposed the birth of a sovereign country made up of the three main independent regions. In 1950, the election of the National Assembly took place, composed of 60 deputies (20 per region). On December 2 of the same year, after arduous negotiations, the Assembly agreed that Libya would be a federal monarchy composed of three provinces, with Mohammed Idriss As-Sanûsi as King.

Initially, the Kingdom was able to establish itself given the international recognition and the finding oil fields that allowed Libya to become the richest country on the continent. This optimism, however, concealed the fact that the real Libyan problem lay within its borders: the country was ruled by the original peoples of Cyrenaica. To balance power, the king decided to appoint Mahmoud el-Montasser, a Tripolitanian, as prime minister.

However, the king made the mistake of not having based his monarchy on the Sanûsiya, but on his tribe, the Barasa. The regime became totalitarian. After pro-Nasser demonstrations, the king banned political parties in 1952, and dismissed more than ten governors, who were replaced by prefects. As for foreign relations, under the reign of Idriss, Libya signed with Great Britain a twenty-year alliance by which the British could use Libyan military instructions . With the United States it signed a similar one which granted permission to the Americans to build the Wheelus Field base near Tripoli. Finally, he signed a peace treaty with Italy whereby the former metropolis undertook to pay reparations as long as Libya protected the property of the 27,000 Italians still residing there. These measures brought the kingdom to its doom, since its neighboring countries and its population considered that the king was not showing solidarity with Egypt by aligning himself with the Western countries.

The fall of the monarchy

On September 1, 1969, a coup d'état took place in the country to overthrow Idriss; the latter, seriously ill, announced his abdication for the following day. The Revolutionary Command committee (RCC), constituted by the officers who had brought about this change of government, abolished the monarchy and proclaimed the Libyan Arab Republic. The military board that established itself in power was composed of a dozen members, mostly from the two main original peoples: the Warfalla and the Maghara. The latter were of Marxist ideology, which led to the regime of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.

During the first weeks of government, the new leaders tried to take all possible precautions to avoid a British and American intervention. They issued a statement guaranteeing the safety of foreigners' property and promising that the oil companies would not be nationalized. In view of these statements, which were not in line with communism, the United States and the West recognized the new government on September 6.

The real intentions of the new government appeared soon after. A month after the statement, the Libyan authorities announced that the previous treaties concerning military instructions would have to be renegotiated. They also called for a renegotiation of the taxation of oil companies. Finally, in 1971, a single party was created: the Arab Socialist Union.

Qaddafi's government

On April 15, 1973, almost four years after the coup d'état of '69, Gaddafi gave a speech in which he invited the "popular masses" to take back the power seized by the Arab Socialist Union party. He imposed himself as head of the country, promoting a cultural and political revolution that proposed, on the one hand, a reform of the institutions with a stricter application of the precepts of the sharia, and on the other hand, the idea that the aggressors of the people were the Arab countries allied with the West and Israel.

Gaddafi based his power on a profound tribal recomposition. The first measure he took, the day after taking power, distrustful of Cyrenaica and its tribes loyal to King Idriss, was to form an alliance with the people of Hada, with which he sought to balance the power of the Barasa.

Secondly, he divorced his wife, of Turkish-Kouloughli origin, who constituted an obstacle to the alliances with the peoples that were necessary for him to expand his power base. He then married a Firkeche woman, a segment of the Barasa tribe. This marriage allowed him to build an alliance between the Qadhafa and the great tribes of Cyrenaica linked to the Barasa.

Third, he also built an alliance with the Misrata, a literate elite that subsequently occupied many of the regime's posts. However, over time, this alliance broke down and led to a growth of hatred towards the colonel that would play an important role in the revolution that brought down Qaddafi.

Fourthly, after having lost Misrata, Gaddafi recomposed his strategy by relying on his own confederation, that of the Awlad Sulaymans, enemies of Misrata since the time of Italian rule. This alliance covered the city of Tripoli and geographically extended the territory of the ruler.

Fifthly, the ruler's problem would be the result of the previous points: tribal alliances. Fractions of his allies conspired against him in 1973 to attempt a coup d'état. Gaddafi's army, however, prevented it and condemned the ringleaders to death. From this point on, the colonel began to distrust the tribes of this region, Tripolitania, and gradually began to break off relations with them. This would prove fatal to him.

Qaddafi facing the world

International activism under Gaddafi sought the fusion of the Arab peoples with the goal of creating a transnational caliphate. In 1972, although he did not yet control the whole of Libyan territory, he contributed to the creation of the Union of Arab Republics (Libya, Egypt and Syria), which was dissolved in 1977. In 1984, he created the Libyan-Moroccan Union, which would disappear two years later. Four other attempts were made: with Tunisia in 1974, with Chad in 1981, with Algeria in 1988 and with Sudan in 1990; none of them succeeded. These attempts at union caused tensions on the continent, especially with Egypt, with which there was a border conflict from July 21 to 24, 1977. As a result, the mutual border was closed until March 1989.

As for the rest of the world, the dictator's support for terrorist movements during the 1980s made him enemies, especially the United States, Great Britain and France. Several attacks by the Libyan regime, such as the shooting down of an American plane over the Scottish town of Lockerbie and the assassination of ambassadors, led the UN Security committee in 1992 to adopt a policy of trade and financial embargo sanctions. Added to this was the socialist orientation of the colonel, who nationalized the oil companies and the assets of Italian residents on the grounds that they had been stolen during the colonial era.

The fall of the regime

Over time, the regime lost power and national support. This decline was due to the march of Economics, as the citizens benefited from the direct income from hydrocarbons: health and Education were free, and agriculture was subsidized. In addition, there was a project to create a "Great Man Made River" (GMMR), 4,000 kilometers long. In summary, the five million inhabitants had an exceptional life, with a GDP per capita of 3,000 euros in 2011.

The main civil service examination came from Islamic circles, more specifically from the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist groups (Sunni Islamic ultra-right movement), who from 1995 onwards were radicalized with the financial aid of groups from Afghanistan. Their reasons for opposing Gaddafi were the westernization of the country: leaving behind to some extent the Tuareg tropism and a turn towards the countries of the North. That same year an Islamist rebellion broke out, initiated by the Front for the Liberation of Libya in Cyrenaica. Qaddafi responded with a major crackdown, establishing anti-Islamic laws that punished anyone who did not denounce the Islamists and the closure of most zawiya (religious schools and monasteries), especially those of the Sanûsiya.

In 2003, Libya acknowledged its involvement in the Lockerbie bombing and undertook to compensate all victims. This led to the lifting of sanctions by the UN Security committee . In December of the same year, the country renounced the production of weapons of mass destruction and in 2004 acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. With these new measures, the regime began to ally itself with Western countries, which in turn promoted the industrialization of the country. One example was the treaty signed between Gaddafi and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, whereby Italy undertook to reimburse Libya $5 billion over a period of 25 years, provided that the African country opened up to the Italian market and avoided illegal immigration to Europe.

Libya did not experience "the Arab Spring", as it was suffering from a civil war born in Cyrenaica, which began as an uprising of a Berber minority living near the border with Tunisia. Qaddafi, fearful of spoiling the good image he had finally managed to build in the international community, decided not to use military force to re-establish his power in Cyrenaica, but as time went on he had no choice but to do so. This action led to what he already knew: international outcry.

The first country to oppose was Nicolas Sarkozy's France. Under the pretext of humanitarian interference, France, together with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries, decided to destroy the Qaddafi regime. In March 2011, they recognized the National Transitional committee (NTC). The African Union also wanted the change of government, but nevertheless advocated that this should be done through negotiation, in order to avoid negative consequences such as the disintegration of the state. 

During the month of February 2011, the colonel had to face a triple uprising. In Cyrenaica, by the jihadists (remember the anti-Islamic laws), who were also supported by Turkey and the local mafias, who felt threatened by the Italo-Libyan agreement on migration. In Tripolitania, by the Berbers, who now saw their identity denied in favor of the defense of Arab nationalism. Finally, also in Misrata, the zone had a staff account to settle with the dictator since 1975 (tribal conflict).

Gaddafi took preventive measures, such as banning demonstrations or suspending sporting events, and announced social reforms favorable to the population, thinking that these were grievances that would not transcend. His error of analysis was to think that the protest had a social motive, whereas its reasons were tribal, regional, political and religious subject

The government was able to control the status for a month, until on February 15 the violence escalated into a full-blown civil war.

Foreign interference began on March 17, when the French Foreign Minister promoted in the UN Security committee Resolution 1973, which authorized the creation of a no-fly zone over Libya, as well as the imposition of the "necessary measures" to grant protection to civilians. This resolution excluded land occupation, and was supported by the Arab League, with military air support from Qatar.

A few days later, on March 21, the intervention of NATO countries went beyond the guidelines of Resolution 1973, as Gaddafi's residency program was bombed under the pretext that it served as a command center. The African Union, supported by Russia, then called for the "immediate cessation of all hostilities". For its part, the Arab League reminded NATO that it was deviating from its stated objectives. However, the Western countries paid no heed. On March 31, through his son Saif al-Islam, the colonel proposed a referendum on the establishment of democracy in Libya. NATO was ready to consider his proposals, but the National Transitional committee was categorically opposed, demanding as it did, quite simply, the removal of Gaddafi from power.

On September 16, the Security committee , through Resolution 2009, created the United Nations Support mission statement in Libya (UNSMIL). Its goal was to attend the national authorities in restoring security and the rule of law through the promotion of political dialogue and national reconciliation.

The "liberation" of the country took place on October 23, 2011, when Qaddafi was captured on his way to Fezzan, accompanied by his son. His convoy was attacked by NATO air forces. He was taken prisoner and subsequently lynched by his compatriots. The president of the National Transitional committee , Mustapha Adbel Jalil, then proclaimed himself the new legitimate ruler of the country until new elections.

Libya after Gaddafi

The transitional president declared on his first day that Sharia would be the basis of the Constitution as well as the law, reestablished polygamy and outlawed divorce. The consequences of the civil war were tremendous: they led to the disintegration of the country. Qaddafi's death did not mark the end of the conflict, as the tribal, regional and religious militias that participated in the war defended different visions of what the new government should be like, making unification impossible.

Externally, territorial decontrol changed the geopolitics of the Sahara-Sahel region, offering new opportunities to jihadists.

Three periods can be distinguished. The first, between 2011 and 2013, could be considered as the time of uncertainty, but also the time of democratic hope and illusion. Despite wars between different peoples over different ideologies (defenders of the old regime against Muslim fundamentalists defending Islamic traditions) and a territorial proxy war (Cyrenaica against Tripolitania for the capital of the new state), what appeared to be democratic mechanisms were being put in place.

On October 31, 2011, Abdel Rahim al-Keeb, a native of Tripoli, was elected Prime Minister of the transitional government by 26 votes out of 51. Legislative elections took place on July 7, 2012; they were won by the General National congress (GNC), which replaced the Transitional National committee . But the status was far from being consolidated. On September 11, 2012, the American ambassador John Christopher Stevens was assassinated by a Salafist group called Ansar al-Sharia.

The second period began in early 2013. Libya was on the path to normalization through democratic elections and the reactivation of oil and gas exports. However, the following year saw the beginning of lawlessness and attempts to recompose internal order. The "democratic advances" had not been enough, as the regions had a great deal of autonomy and there was no border security. No one had been able to control Libyan territory in its entirety. Chadian President Idriss Déby, who had already warned of these consequences when the West intervened in the civil war, called the new Libyan status a "Somalization".

From February 2014 onwards, this lawlessness resulted in a series of resignations of "government" officials due to threats by the various militias in the country and protests in front of the NGC, as the government was not dissolved after the expiration of the mandate. On February 20, elections were held for the 60 members of the Constituent Assembly whose goal was to draft a new constitution, but only 15% of the voters participated. Meanwhile, on March 6, in Rome, at the International lecture on Libya, the Italian Foreign Minister considered that the main problem was the "overlapping of legitimacy".

The third period, took place at the end of 2014, when the so-called "second Libyan war" started. From 2015 onwards, the Islamic State entered the scene, which changed the Libyan political picture. The UN created a transitional executive body called the Government of National agreement (GNA), with the goal of directing Libyan politics in this new status. It was formed by the union of the General National congress and the House of Representatives. It is composed of 32 ministers, and Fayez-al Sarraj holds the position of president of the Presidential committee and prime minister of the GNA.

Libya then found itself with two parliaments, one in Tripoli, under the control of the Islamists, and the other, recognized by the international community, in Tobruk, Cyrenaica, near the Egyptian border, which had been forced to desist from action by jihadist forces. This led to the start of another conflict, which is still ongoing today. In Cyrenaica, a confused and multiform war is taking place, involving jihadists and supporters of General Khalifa Haftar, who leads the Libyan National Army (LNA) and opposes both the jihadists and the Government of National agreement . Through his army, the general launched air strikes against Islamist groups in Benghazi in May, with the goal of seizing the parliament. He also accused Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg of cooperating with Islamist groups. In June, Maiteg resigned after the Supreme Court ruled that his appointment was illegal.

In 2014, Haftar launched "Operation Dignity" against the Islamists, trying to remove from power Colonel Moktar Fernana, commander of the military police and elected by Misrata and the Muslim Brotherhood. This mission statement failed due to the power of the different Muslim militias throughout the territory of Tripolitania, divided into different areas: there is the city of Misrata, which is jihadist territory under the command of the Muslim Brotherhood; to the West, the Arabic-speaking Berber militia of Zenten reigns; in the capital, the Islamist militia Farj Lybia is in control, while Fezzan and the Great South have become almost autonomous territories, where the Tuareg are fought.

In June 2014, parliamentary elections took place. The Islamist parties were defeated, there was a leave turnout due to insecurity and the boycott of the dominant parties, and a confrontation arose between the forces loyal to the NTC and those of the new Parliament or House of Representatives (HoR). Finally, the National Salvation Government emerged, with Nouri Absuhamain, an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, as president.

In July, national security deteriorated severely following several events. Tripoli International Airport was destroyed due to conflicts between the Misrata militia and its Dawa Libya operation against the Zintan militia; the HoR moved to Tobruk after the Tripoli Supreme Court (composed of the NTC) dissolved it; the NTC voted itself a replacement for the House of Representatives; Asar al-Sharia moved to control Benghazi; and UN envoys left the country due to increasing insecurity.

On January 29, 2015, the LNA and its Tripoli allies declared a ceasefire following the "Libyan Dialogue" organized by the UN in Geneva to encourage reconciliation between the different sides. On December 17 of the same year, the Libyan Political agreement , or Skhirat agreement , promoted by UNSMIL, took place. Its goal was to resolve the dispute between the legitimate House of Representatives, based in Tobruk and al-Bayda, and the NTC, based in Tripoli. A 9-member Presidency committee was created to form a unity government that would lead to elections in two years. The HoR was to be the sole parliament and would act as such until the elections.

On March 30, 2016, the GNA arrived in Tripoli by sea due to the air blockade. The settlement of the legitimate government prompted the UN to return to the territory after two years in April. In addition, the GNA, together with U.S. air forces, liberated Sirte from ISIS in December 2016. However, the LNA continued to gain territory, counting in September with the control of the eastern oil terminals.

In July 2017, the LNA drove ISIS out of Benghazi. A year later, it controlled Derna, the last western territory under terrorist groups. On December 17, Haftar declared the Libyan Political agreement null and void, as elections had not taken place, highlighting the obsolescence of the Libyan government created by the UN. The general then began to gain strength in the national and international context: "All the institutions created under this agreement are null and void, as they have not obtained full legitimacy. Libyans feel that they have lost their patience and that the promised period of peace and stability has become a distant fantasy," Haftar declared.

April 19, 2019 was the date on which the Libyan National lecture was to be held in Ghadamas to advance agreements and close a date on which the presidential and parliamentary elections would be held. However, days before the lecture convocation was cancelled due to the LNA's "Operation Dignity Flood" with the goal of the "liberation" of the country.

Correlation of forces in the Libyan civil war, February 2016 [Wikipedia].

Foreign interference

The current Libyan status is worrying. The international community fears that the country could become the next Syria. The National Liberation Army, led by Haftar, is supported by the United Arab Emirates, hoping to stop the advance of the Muslim Brotherhood, which it considers a terrorist organization. It is also supported by Egypt and Russia, interested in controlling the country's energy resources. The Government of National agreement , with Fayez al-Sarraj as leader, represents the legitimate government for the international community (the UN recognizes it). Moreover, it is supported by the United States and the European Union countries (except France), as well as Turkey and Qatar, which provide military support (especially the Turks). However, the United States and the EU defend the maritime borders of Greece and Israel against the desired Turkish project to build gas pipelines across the Mediterranean to supply itself.

The rapprochement between Haftar and France began in 2015. The European country tried to transform the LNA into a legitimate actor by assisting him with clandestine operatives, special forces and advisors. On July 20, 2016, Holland's France officially declared its military support for him after the killing of three French special forces soldiers in Benghazi at the hands of the GNA, which argued that it was a "violation of its national sovereignty." On July 25, 2019, the Paris Summit took place. Macron invited the two leaders to dialogue on peace and unity. France's greatest interest is to eradicate terrorism.

On March 6, 2019, the Abu Dhabi agreement brought together the leaders of the most important sides of the Libyan war and emphasized several aspects: Libya as marital status, shortening of the government transition period, unification of state institutions (such as the Central Bank), the cessation of hatred and its incitement, the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections by the end of the year, the peaceful transfer of power, the separation of powers and the monitoring of the agreed points by the UN. The location of the meeting sample the strong involvement of the United Arab Emirates in this war, especially as an ally of General Haftar. The Persian Gulf country denied supporting the attack on Tripoli which took place on March 31, 2020 by the LNA. However, several Libyan media outlets stated that two military cargo planes arrived at the Emirati Al-Khadim airbase in the east of the Libyan city of Marj from Abu Dhabi's Sweihan airbase.

On November 27, 2019, the Maritime Border agreement between the GNA and Turkey took place. Turkish President Erdogan and Fayez al-Sarraj signed two memorandums of understanding. They agreed on an 18.6 nautical mile limit as a shared maritime border between Turkey and Libya and signed a military cooperation agreement whereby Ankara would send soldiers and weaponry. Instead of creating a new troop, which would take longer, Turkey offered a salary of $200 per month to fight in Libya as opposed to the $75 it gave for fighting in Syria.

The problem with the maritime border is that it ignores the islands of Cyprus and Greece and violates their rights under the 1994 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, although neither country has gone to the Law of the Sea Tribunal. The Turkish interest lies in the possibility of the presence of oil and natural gas off the southern coast of Crete. The agreement will for the time being last as long as the GNA lasts, in an unstable status to which the unpopularity of the military intervention in Turkey also contributes.

On January 2, 2020, the presidents of Algeria and Tunisia met with Khalifa Haftar. The Algerian president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, insisted that the solution to the Libyan problem must be internal and not depend on the influx of arms brought about by foreign interference. He proposed the creation of new institutions allowing the organization of general elections and the establishment of the new instructions of the Libyan democratic state with the approval of the UN.

On January 6, the LNA took control of Sirte. This city is strategic as it is close to Libya's "average oil moon", a coastal strip where several important oil export terminals are located.

On January 12, Russia and Turkey declared a truce in Syria and Libya. This agreement was a quid pro quo, since Russia has greater interests in Syria than in Libya, as it seeks a port in the Mediterranean, and Turkey, as explained above, wishes to build a gas supply system across the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. However, the agreement is not being fulfilled, especially in the Libyan scenario. UN envoys allege that both countries continue to provide weaponry to the guerrillas.

On January 19, the Berlin lecture took place, which constituted an attempt to appease the status of the country. The United States, Russia, Germany, France, Italy, China, Turkey and Algeria took part and expressed their commitment to put an end to political and military interference in the country. Without the intervention of third parties, the country would not be able to sustain a civil war because none of the sides is strong enough. The lecture also discussed the non-compliance with the arms embargo established by the UN Security committee in 2011. The problem is that no power, especially Turkey and Russia, recognizes its involvement, so there are no responsibilities and no sanctions.

A week later, the first violation of the pact took place. As for the truce, the Haftar government, with the goal of recovering the capital, launched an offensive towards the city of Misrata, where an important base of the Government of National agreement is located. Moreover, the UN special mission statement in Libya (UNSMIL) affirmed that material continues to reach the fighting sides by air.

On March 31, the European Union launched "Operation Irini" ("peace" in Greek). It replaces the 2015 "Operation Sophia", which was aimed goal combating human trafficking off the Libyan coast. The new operation has changed its main goal , as it will fight to enforce the arms embargo. In addition, it has other secondary tasks such as the control of oil smuggling, the continuation of the training of the Libyan coast guard and the control of human trafficking through the collection of information with the use of air patrols. This initiative is born above all by Italy, the first country to which Libyan refugees arrive and therefore concerned about immigration. This leadership is manifested in the development the operation, since the headquarters is in Rome and the operational management is in position of Italian Rear Admiral Fabio Agostini. For the time being, it has a duration of one year.

On April 5, the UN called for a cessation of hostilities to combat Covid-19. It called for a humanitarian truce involving not only the national sides but also foreign forces. The virus claimed the life of Mahmoud Jibril, former prime minister and leader of the rebellion against Gaddafi.

New regional geopolitics and conclusion

We can define the new Libyan geopolitics through the following points. First, the spread of arms throughout the Sahara-Sahel region, the area of old and current conflicts. Secondly, the border threat felt by Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia due to the internal conflict. Finally, the disinterest of the new Libyan authorities in the Greater South, as it has practically become independent, controlling almost all trade through the Sahara. Al-Qaeda, through subgroups such as Fajr Lybia, is trying to establish an Islamic State of North Africa imitating that of Iraq. To this end, in the conquered areas, Daesh destroys the tribal paradigm by liquidating tribal chiefs who do not want to ally with them in goal to terrorize the rest. It is through these practices that all the jihadist militias were able to ally themselves at the end of 2015. Faced with this, the United Nations sponsored Fayez Sarrraj as Prime Minister, who was installed in Tripoli in April 2016. 

Libya is a privileged state in terms of natural wealth. However, in its history it has suffered a lot and continues to do so. It has gone through monarchies, colonization and dictatorships until finally becoming today a failed state. Its political structure is complicated, as it is tribal, and therefore none of the political systems has succeeded completely because it has not managed to harmonize the internal organizations. Today the country consists of three rival governments and hundreds of militias and armed groups that continue to compete for power and control of territory, trade routes and strategic military sites. For the status to be resolved, the countries actively involved in the conflict (Russia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Qatar) need to comply with the UN arms embargo. In addition, foreign powers must increase their understanding of the country to be successful in bringing about the best possible solution. Even if Libya is on the verge of becoming the next Syria, there are still opportunities to save the status quo and give the country what it has long lacked: stability.

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