The US preserves submarine superiority, but China may try to crowd Taiwan's waters with its submersibles.

The Chinese navy's B progress is also being made in the submarine fleet. Although the US Navy has already fallen behind its Chinese counterpart in issue of ships, the superiority of the US naval force is still clear: not only in terms of aircraft carriers and their battle groups - something that, in any case, the Chinese are supposed to be able to match in time - but also in the specific field of submarine warfare, where the US has a technological advantage that Beijing may find somewhat more difficult to catch up with. But it is enough for China to populate the seas around it with submarines to try to keep the sluggish Americans at bay. The development of quieter Chinese submarines may lead to the same Cold War 'game' popularised by "The Hunt for Red October".

The Pacific Ocean separates Asia and America and is the privileged, though by no means unique, stage for the rivalry between their respective great powers. China's emergence is also leading to a naval rivalry that is turning what was historically only a land power into a maritime power. After 25 years of modernisation of its armed forces, the People's Liberation Army Navy has overtaken the US Navy at issue .

In its latest report on the military capabilities of the People's Republic of China, the Pentagon attributed to its rival a battle fleet of 355 ships (including submarines) by the end of 2021, while the US fleet currently stands at 295 vessels, according to the Vessel Naval Register of the department Defence. agreement And the difference will increase, since, according to the US estimates, the Chinese could reach 420 ships by 2025 and 460 by 2030, while in the US the Pentagon has not yet fully achieved the political commitment to reach the 400 it is aiming for.

The issue total number of warships is certainly not the best way to contrast the military capabilities of the two powers, in a comparison in which, at least for the time being and certainly for some time to come, the US maintains its superiority not only in tonnage, but also in firepower and technological sophistication. It is often cited, for example, that compared to 11 US aircraft carriers, China has only two (a third is under construction). But US dominance also takes the form of subject of submarines, although by the end of 2021 the two countries had the same issue number of units, 68, from agreement with the Pentagon.

The US Defence report analysing China's military capabilities specifies that the People's Liberation Army Navy has placed a "high priority" on modernising its submarine fleet. However, "its structural strength continues to grow modestly as it matures its force, integrates new technologies and expands its shipyards". By this count, China has six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines and 46 diesel-powered attack submarines. The Pentagon believes China will remain between 65 and 70 submarines throughout this decade, simply by replacing some older units with more advanced ones.

While the bulk of China's submarine fleet is diesel-powered, all US submarines are nuclear-powered. The Navy has 14 ballistic missile submarines (SSBN-726) and 4 guided missile submarines (SSGN-726). The other 50 are attack submarines (3 SSN-21s, 28 SSN-688s and 19 SSN-774s).

When comparing the two forces, one must also take into account other aspects that are not strictly speaking Materials or technological, such as the fact that China has no experience in global maritime operations, with an ongoing deployment and resupply capability that is still very deficient. But while this prevents it from undertaking ambitious operations beyond its coastal borders for the time being, it does not prevent it from already posing a serious threat to nearby countries such as Taiwan. Thus, in relation to that island, China would be fully capable of deploying its massive number of ships in a short amount of time before the Americans could show up in sufficient force to deal with status, as the IISS points out.

Ghost Fleet, a novel that has been studied in US war schools for the past few years, begins with the theme of disabling the US's current submarine superiority and analyses the coming war between Washington and Beijing. The book argues that to defuse the US naval danger, China first needs to knock out its rival's most advanced submarines. That is how it could take Taiwan and also defeat the power that was once described as 'indispensable'.

Chinese advance

China's technical progress on subject submarines has been rapid and it continues to increase its inventory of conventional submarines capable of launching advanced anti-ship Wayside Cross missiles. Since the mid-1990s and over the course of a decade, China has purchased 12 Russian submarines and then its own shipyards have delivered 30 conventional submarines (Song and Yuan classes). The Pentagon expects China to build at least another 25 units of class Yuan by 2025.

In the last 15 years, China has also acquired 12 nuclear-powered submarines: two Shang-I, four Shang-II and six Jin. The latter, armed with ballistic missiles, constitute China's "first sea-based nuclear deterrent", according to the Pentagon's report , which states that China will begin building its next generation of ballistic missile submarines early this decade. China is also upgrading its anti-submarine warfare inventory and training to protect the Navy's aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines.

The submarine fleets of both countries are moving towards a greater focus on anti-submarine warfare. Until now Chinese submarines have been essentially a surface ship strike force, but as they improve their capabilities they aspire to be more of an equal partner with the Americans, suggesting a new stage of 'hide and seek' that may reprise the 'cat and mouse game' between the two superpowers that took place in the deep sea during the Cold War.

This leads to the greater stealth that the Chinese are being able to apply to their submarines, hitherto lagging behind the Americans in this respect. The Chinese navy has made progress with the installation of new devices on new-generation nuclear submarines. The acoustic supremacy of the Americans may be threatened by this advance, and it would not be the first time that the US has fallen victim to Asian naval advances: one need only recall the events of Pearl Harbor and the great contribution of the long-range torpedoes developed by the Japanese Navy. The big question is whether these advances will be of similar magnitude, which would mean a change in the naval status quo. Chinese naval operations, in any case, will be heavily offensive-oriented, on a par with the US Navy's operational priority.

Another consequence of China's increased development submarine capability, even if only referring to issue of units, may be an attempt to 'crowd' the South China Sea, or at least the Taiwan Strait and its surrounding waters, with a flotilla of submarines to hinder US freedom of navigation efforts and ultimately keep US vessels at a distance. Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute has pointed out that China's growing submarine fleet could likely attempt to 'flood the area' to overwhelm US submarine warfare assets, threatening US naval forces with an attack, or attempting to blockade Guam or Taiwan.

That part of the strategic pulse between Washington and Beijing is played out in the deep is also demonstrated by other elements, such as the AUKUS alliance between Australia, the UK and the US. This is a security and defence cooperation agreement that begins with the US and British commitment to share technology for the construction of 12 nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian Navy. China has reacted with a particularly strong verbal response to this initiative.