In the picture
Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin during the meeting they held in September 2023 at the Russian Vostochny Cosmodrome [KCNA].
The growing partnership between Putin and Kim Jong-un worries the international community -and especially Japan, which has a difficult relationship with both countries- because of the possible exchange of war resources that could result from it. North Korea amended its Constitution in September to strengthen and expand its nuclear program and in November announced the launch of its first military spy satellite. Japan perceives as a new threat both this escalation and the backing that the North Korean regime seems to be receiving from Russia, a country with which the Japanese keep alive the dispute over the Kuriles.
Despite the resolutions and warnings it has received from the international community, North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear program, reaching a record number of missile launches in 2022. Moreover, in September 2023 it amended its Constitution to enable it to strengthen and expand its nuclear program, which makes its intention to continue with this program permanent and makes it clear to other countries that it is not going to denuclearize as the West demands. Two months later, it launched its first military spy satellite, an action that was condemned by the UN and countries such as South Korea and Japan. It was precisely the attitude of these two neighbors towards the North Korean regime that Pyongyang referred to when justifying its constitutional reform, alluding that the reinforced alliance of both with the United States constitutes the "worst real threat" to North Korea.
The meeting of Kim Jong-un and Putin in Moscow for the 75th anniversary of their bilateral relations, held in September, has increased tension in the international arena given the commitments expressed about closer military and space cooperation. According to international media, during the visit to Russia the North Korean leader would have offered anti-tank missiles and artillery ammunition to support Moscow in the war in Ukraine, while Putin would have agreed to supply financial aid food and technology related to satellites and nuclear-powered submarines. This particularly alarmed South Korea and the United States, which warned that this attention would violate international law and the resolutions of the UN Security committee . Japan also expressed its warning.
North Korea may be taking advantage of the fact that global diplomatic attention is focused on the current proliferation of conflicts (the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the tension surrounding Taiwan) to advance its nuclear program more quickly and aggressively. While these matters of international emergency certainly occupy the world's major capitals, for Japan Pyongyang's moves are always a priority.
Japan is probably less exposed than South Korea to a North Korean attack, but the ballistic tests ordered by Kim Jong-un also affect it directly; moreover, Japan also feels concerned about an entente between Pyongyang and Moscow, given its bitter dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands. agreement The Kuril Islands came under USSR domination as a result of the Yalta Treaty of 1945, but the Japanese claim has meant that to date the two countries have not yet signed a peace treaty. The latest talks have been stalled by Russia's withdrawal from the negotiating table in protest at Japan's support for the sanctions imposed on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine.
On the other hand, North Korea and Japan also have some grudges such as Japan's colonization of the entire Korean peninsula between 1910-1945, for which Tokyo has order apologized, or the abduction of Japanese nationals by the North Korean regime. In the 1970s and 1980s, 17 Japanese were abducted to teach North Korean intelligence agents about Japanese language and culture in order to enhance their infiltration of the country. In 2002, North Korea admitted its actions, apologized and promised not to do it again. Although it returned some abductees to Japan, it did not give a satisfactory explanation for the others, so Japan never normalized relations.
These past grievances are compounded by misgivings about the alliances cultivated by the two countries. North Korea has been critical of the agreement The U.S.-South Korea-Japan economic and military alliance reached in August 2023, which in turn reacted to the rapprochement between China, Russia and North Korea over the war in Ukraine and the attitude toward Taiwan.
In the first decade of this century, Japan faced the North Korean nuclear program between the firmness of the United States and the more conciliatory attitude of South Korea, China or Russia. Because of the history of mutual tensions, Japan insisted on a peaceful, non-military resolution of the problem; nor was it committed to forcing regime change in North Korea, but rather advocated gradual political and economic changes.
However, in the face of Kim Jong-un's clear intention to continue with the nuclear program, and even in the face of a possible exchange arms deal with Putin, as well as the obvious threat from China, Japan's attitude has changed. Preparing for a status conflict, on December 16, 2022, the government of Fumio Kishida published three strategic documents aimed at the defense of the country: the national defense strategy, the national security strategy and the defense strengthening program. These documents outline the threats looming over Japan and address how to deal with them in the next decade; they also recognize the importance of military, as well as intelligence and technological capabilities to pursue deterrence and strengthen national diplomacy.
Until now, Japan's defense capabilities have been limited by Article 9 of the Constitution; this plan will radically increase the defense budget to 2% of the country's GDP and cover the acquisition of counter-strike capabilities (this includes the purchase of 1,500 missiles to be deployed by 2026 to confront nuclear powers in the area). This strategy also calls for closer collaboration with the United States on response capabilities. Japan wants to advance its claim to be able to defend itself and not be so dependent on Washington. This does not mean that it has set aside its other alliances; in these it is rightly seeking cooperation that will enable it to share defense technology and equipment. In January 2023, Prime Minister Kishida made a trip that took him to the main countries of Europe and North America to prepare for the G7 summit to be held in May in Hiroshima; in his meetings with the respective leaders, he discussed military and strategic issues.
In conclusion, the continuing nuclear breakthrough and the events that reinforce it (such as the meeting between Putin and Kim Jong-un) have led Japan to feel the need to develop and enhance its defense capabilities, and also to tighten its alliance with other countries. Tokyo is moving with a greater sense of urgency in improving its national security system.