Taiwan clash can be avoided

No area exemplifies the Sino-US rivalry as clearly as the island of Taiwan and the strait of the same name. In today's turbulent world, with two major open wars in Ukraine and Palestine, this territory, coveted by Beijing as an integral part of the People's Republic of China (PRC), is emerging as one of those geographical areas in which an incident, a priori minor, can initiate a conflict of global scope that pits China against the United States with consequences as unpredictable as they are disturbing.

Since its incorporation as the Republic of China (ROC) in 1949, Taiwan has tied its security to US military power; through a mutual defense treaty in force until 1979, and through the guarantees of the Taiwan Relations Act since then. The United States, meanwhile, has always placed its relationship with the island in the context of its relationship with the PRC, which is strategically much more far-reaching.

So much has changed in the interaction between China, Taiwan and the United States since Washington opened up to Beijing in the 1970s that the previously unthinkable possibility of the Asian power attempting to achieve Taiwan's integration through the use of force now appears to be an increasingly plausible option; the opposite of what is happening to the strategy of ambiguity practiced by the United States since that time, whose credibility is questioned by the magnitude of China's growing military power. Will the PRC take its defiance to internship ? Will it provoke a global crisis?

US-Taiwan Relations. Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?' explores precisely these questions in an interesting text in which its three authors, all of them prestigious figures in the world of US think tanks, ask themselves precisely whether we are on the verge of a world crisis over Taiwan. The answer is clear from the very first pages: although the current status presents a real risk of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait, such a possibility is not inevitable.

The book opens a window into the history of the complex triangular relationship between China, the United States and Taiwan from the time when the Nationalist leader, Chiang Kai-shek, settled on the island of Formosa after his defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949 to the present day; The liberalization and democratization of the Kuomintang (KMT) regime and the emergence of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), opposed to the country's integration into the PRC, as its main political rival; the radical shift in US foreign policy in the 1970s; and the emergence of Taiwan as a thriving economic power that dominates the production of the world's most technologically advanced microchips.

Despite having written this book from a purely U.S.-centric perspective, the authors make clear in their analysis that the maintenance of peace in the cross-strait region separating the former Formosa from the Asian mainland, and the survival of Taiwan as a democratic and economically dynamic player as it is now, are strategic interests of global scope. Armed conflict in the region, it argues, could trigger a world-scale recession, if not outright a depression similar to that which preceded World War II; it would disrupt global supply chains, seriously jeopardizing access to the advanced microchips that Taiwan produces, and which are so badly needed by industrially advanced countries; and it would trigger a collapse of the global financial system that could shrink U.S. GDP by as much as 10%, which in turn could have catastrophic consequences for the world's major economies.

Avoiding a determinism that sees an armed conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan as inevitable, the book concludes that the Taipei regime faces a double threat, of a military and political nature, from the PRC, and outlines a series of scenarios, economic and political-military, for the possible future of the region, ranging from the conclusion of a negotiated agreement between China and Taiwan to achieve unification in a peaceful manner, to a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait initiated by the PRC. In any case status, the maintenance of stability in the region appears as the main strategic interest of the United States.

In this context, the book warns of the danger that Washington would run if it were to reduce the confrontation over Taiwan to an exclusively military level, ignoring other dimensions of it; in treating it in this way, it would ignore the reality that China is already practicing a coercive strategy without violence to wear down the will of the Taiwanese to resist and lead them to the conclusion that the territory's integration into the PRC is inevitable and resistance, therefore, futile. Ignoring the coercion already exerted by China on the island would not serve US interests in the area well.

The best way to avoid China's coercive strategy and to make the Taiwanese less sensitive to it, in the authors' view, is to strengthen confidence in the island's future as a prosperous, developed, democratic territory with autonomous agency. The task of the United States, according to them, should focus on practical measures that support Taiwan's efforts to strengthen its international prestige and respect, and that contribute to keeping the country at the forefront of technological innovation, ensuring its economic competitiveness and guaranteeing the health of its citizens. The more democracy, freedom, prosperity, and economic development , the less influence Chinese coercion will have on Taiwan.

The book does not limit itself to this diagnosis, but goes further, proposing a catalog of practical non-military measures to ensure this scenario and strengthen Taiwan. These include, for example, sharing information or routinely consulting with Taiwan on security or public health issues to be discussed in international fora in which Taipei is not represented; put on knowledge from Beijing that the United States will react to Chinese attempts to pressure Taiwan; negotiate with Taiwan on a bilateral free trade agreement ; deepen toward greater integration on technologies core topic, supply chains, or research and development; or give Taiwan more of a voice in the development of international technology standards. Although proposal does not grant any role to military capabilities, their importance as an enabler of success can hardly be underestimated.

U.S.-Taiwan Relations' makes a far-reaching proposal that is not about solving Taiwan's problems, but about serving U.S. strategic interests, and that puts the focus on what should be its goal for the region: maintaining an open space for the PRC and Taiwan to find a peaceful solution to their differences. It is not, therefore, a matter of solving the imposing problems associated with the relationship between the two territories, but of maintaining an open path towards an end satisfactory to all parties. That is the purpose of this contribution.