The Gulf of Fonseca as an exponent of success or failure of Central American integration

Central American cooperation involves closer cooperation partnership especially on three sides, both between Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, which share a land border, and between the latter two countries and Nicaragua, whose borders meet at the Gulf of Fonseca. The strategic value of this gulf -it is Honduras' only outlet to the Pacific, but its access can be controlled by its two neighbors- and its logistical importance, with the improvement of its ports and other infrastructure, make it an enclave of discord, but also of potential development. The success or failure of regional integration depends heavily on the convergence here of its three coastal countries.

The Gulf of Fonseca is a bay on the Pacific coast of Central America, formed by the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. It has an area of about 3,200 square kilometers and includes several islands and islets. Reached by the Spanish conquistador Gil Gonzáles Dávila in 1523 in his attempt to define an inter-oceanic route in the Central American isthmus, it was designated with the name of Archbishop Juan Fonseca. During the colonial period, all the coasts of the Gulf were part of the Captaincy General of Guatemala; once independence was achieved, they remained in the hands of the Federal Republic of Central America. When the latter was dissolved in 1839, the gulf became part of the three bordering countries. Of the 261 kilometers of its perimeter, 185 correspond to Honduras, 40 to Nicaragua and 29 to El Salvador.

Historical conflict

Since the emergence of the Central American republics, the gulf has been considered a geostrategic area for the countries that comprise it and has constituted a source of disputes and territorial tensions between them. It is Honduras' only outlet to the Pacific, and although the specific weight of this country is oriented more towards the Atlantic (much of the economic activity is centered in the Sula valley and foreign trade is conducted mainly through Puerto Cortes, in the northwest corner of Honduras), Tegucigalpa has a special strategic interest in enhancing its opening to the south. But the mouths of the gulf, formed by El Salvador's Amapala Point and Nicaragua's Cosiguina Point, give these other two countries the key to access. Honduras is guaranteed free passage through the central section of the mouth, in waters of co-sovereignty between the three neighbors, but in an open conflict status El Salvador and Nicaragua could illegitimately block the circulation.

The land boundary between Honduras and Nicaragua was established jointly agreement by a Joint Boundary Commission in 1900. However, the traditional dispute lies in the delimitation of waters. In August 1914, the Chamorro-Bryan Treaty was signed, a agreement between the United States and Nicaragua, granting the latter for 99 years the right to the North American country to build an inter-oceanic canal, as well as to establish, maintain and operate a naval base anywhere in Nicaraguan territory, including the Gulf of Fonseca. However, in 1916, El Salvador appealed to the Central American Court of Justice, arguing that some of the clauses of the treaty violated its rights, requesting that the sovereignty of the gulf be maintained as it was before. Finally, the Court ruled in favor of El Salvador, even though Nicaragua opposed the decision, denying the Court's jurisdiction.

On the other hand, since 1969 an atmosphere of tension was generated between El Salvador and Honduras due to border disputes, in a dispute later joined by Nicaragua. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled final in 1992, granting El Salvador and Honduras exclusive sovereignty over a 3 nautical mile strip of the gulf from its coast, awarding the administration of the rest of the waters to both countries and Nicaragua. Of the main islands, that of El Tigre was confirmed for Honduras, while the Meranguera and Meranguerita islands, on the route in and out of the gulf, were ratified as belonging to El Salvador. However, disputes have persisted, mainly due to the dispute between Honduras and El Salvador over other islands.

In 2007, the three countries declared the gulf as a place of "peace, development and prosperity". In that framework, in 2018 they held a "meeting Trinational Technical of the Gulf of Fonseca", aimed at turning the gulf into a zone of cooperation between the three neighbors. However, the purpose to consolidate a peaceful agreement between the countries did not end up materializing.

In 2019, the three states agreed to adopt a Master Plan for the gulf, with the financial aid financial arm of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI). The plan revolved around trinational economic development and investment projects, several of them aimed at turning the gulf into a region of free trade and sustainable tourism.

Rabbit Island

More quarrels led Nicaragua and Honduras to sign a new maritime boundary treaty in 2021, ratifying the 1992 ICJ ruling. In 2022 Nicaragua and El Salvador accused each other of trespassing into their sovereign waters. But the most enduring dispute is the one between El Salvador and Honduras. The latter country requested in 2021 attendance to the UN Security committee to resolve the dispute over Conejo Island. It is an islet of barely half a square kilometer. Although very close to the Honduran coast, its sovereignty has been doubtful. Honduras claims that it belongs to it, invoking the division established in the ICJ ruling, but El Salvador points out that the ruling did not specifically mention Isla Conejo. The enclave was abandoned by the Salvadoran Army in 1980 at the beginning of the Salvadoran civil war, which was used as an opportunity for its occupation by the Honduran Armed Forces.

In October 2021, the then president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, approved an executive decreeto unilaterally confirm Honduran sovereignty over more than twenty islets in the gulf. In September 2022, the Honduran Armed Forces held a ceremony in Conejo to commemorate the country's independence and raised the national flag. The appropriation of the island was rejected by El Salvador, which presented it as an attempt by Hernandez to divert public attention, at a time of pressure from the national civil service examination due to accusations of drug trafficking that would eventually lead him to jail in the United States. However, the Salvadoran government has not prioritized this dispute. President Nayib Bukele seemed to downplay the significance of the Honduran actions , writing on Twitter: "Relax JOH, eat a snickers". Hernández's rival and successor, Xiomara Castro, has not reviewed any of the decisions made.

Projects

The Master Plan for the Gulf of Fonseca development is of particular interest to Honduras, which, with CABEI financing, hopes to build a 1,200-meter bridge between Coyolito, on Zacate Grande Island, which is already connected to the mainland, and Tigre Island, and to build a deep-draft port there. Honduras could connect this infrastructure with the El Amatillo logistics center, also at development, located at the main land border crossing with El Salvador. It is precisely up to El Amatillo that the 'dry canal' -the 330-kilometer road widening- connects that point with San Pedro Sula and Puerto Barrios, promoting the transfer of goods between the Atlantic and the Pacific on a north-south axis.

At the moment, the main port south of this axis is La Unión, in El Salvador, a country that is also interested in the dynamization of the gulf. The possibility of Chinese capital investing in La Union's development was left open after El Salvador stopped recognizing Taiwan and established diplomatic relations with China in 2018. Now that Honduras has done the same it is normal that speculation arises about a possible Chinese interest in these infrastructures. In any case, these are ports with modest projection, more oriented towards fishing and in any case to the regional exchange (there is the project of a cargo ferry connection between La Union and Puerto Caldera, in Costa Rica) than towards international trade.

There are also prospects for tourism growth: Bukele has proposed locating his "Bitcoin City" in the gulf, while Nicaragua hopes to improve the influx to its beaches (the coastline is dominated by mangroves, but there are sandy areas) through the implementation of a tri-national ferry, among other means. Equally important is the preservation of the environment in the face of the consequences of climate change, which could have particularly negative consequences for this enclave, especially because of the threat of rising sea levels.