In the picture
The icebreakers 'Yamal' (Russia), 'Louis St. Laurent' (Canada) and 'Polar Sea' (USA) in the Arctic in August 1994, in a moment of international partnership that today is far away.
After almost ten years without updating it, the United States has published its National Strategy for the Arctic Region, in which, as it has been doing in other recent strategic documents, it unmistakably singles out Russia and China - and all their initiatives in the region - as the main threats to the status quo in the Arctic. From being a sea normally used as a safeguard against international tension, the Arctic is beginning to become part of the geopolitical chessboard as well.
The Biden Administration has recently - and somewhat belatedly - published the latest National Security Strategy, which has also been accompanied by the new Arctic Region Strategy. And although the publication of the latter document may come as a surprise given that the focus of international security is currently on Ukraine, the fact is that the Arctic is destined to continue to gain prominence in the security strategies of many countries over the coming decades. Thus, it is safe to say that the 'exceptionalism' characteristic of this region has come to an end, or will do so shortly.
The reasons behind this progressive change, while somewhat more complicated than may appear at first glance, emanate from two particular features, both related to climate change. Over the next two decades, as has been the case for some years now, global warming will continue to increase the massive melting of the North Pole. This melting opens up two avenues for exploitation of the Arctic: that of natural resources, whose presence beneath the seabed has been highlighted by many programs of study, and that of trade routes that will open up through increasingly open seas. Resources require thawing and development of the necessary technology to be extracted, and may take longer to become accessible. Trade routes, on the other hand, will arrive sooner, as the Northern Route (which crosses from the Pacific to the Atlantic along the Russian coast and Norway) already has ice-free regions. Together with the Northwest Route (which runs along the Canadian and Greenland coast) and the hypothetical Trans Polar Route that could exist once the ice at the Pole is almost completely gone, the potential for Arctic trade transit in the future is very significant.
This context is compounded by the increasing activity and military presence of Russia, which considers the Arctic as a region almost of its own, and is sample determined to exploit the two aspects just mentioned. During the last two decades, and even before, Moscow has extended its activity in the region without any interference from other states, and has also collaborated with other Arctic nations in subject climate change and maintenance of regional stability. The United States and NATO, focused on their tasks in other regions, minimized their presence in the region, whose main standard bearer has always been Norway (among other reasons, because the status in the Svalbard archipelago obliges it to get involved in a special way). This status, however, has come to an end. The conflict in Ukraine, the return to competition between great powers (and the polarization between powers), and the climatic phenomena already mentioned will change this paradigm. As we say, Arctic exceptionalism has come to an end.
U.S. Arctic Strategy
The new U.S. strategy, which had not been updated for almost ten years, highlights the change in Washington's mindset. While the 2013 strategy did little to reference letter geopolitical tensions and focused on cooperation and prevention in the face of climate change, the new edition clearly underlines the dramatic change in the strategic environment. In addition, it aims to establish an "affirmativediary " U.S. Arctic over the next ten years and to set the "picture of how the government will respond to emerging challenges and opportunities in the region."
The paper highlights the aforementioned challenge posed by climate change and the melting of the poles. While stressing that a more accessible Arctic will create new economic opportunities, "its growing strategic importance has intensified the scramble to shape its future as countries pursue new economic interests and prepare for increased activity." Among those countries pursuing economic interests, the strategy unmistakably singles out Russia and China - and all their initiatives in the region - as major threats to the 'status quo' in the region. China, with its desire to "increase its influence in the Arctic through an expanded range of economic, diplomatic, scientific, and military activities" and its early navigations in the region, represents a new challenge for the United States that will grow in magnitude.
To achieve its objectives, the doctrine establishes four fundamental pillars: security, climate change and environmental protection, sustainable economic development , and international cooperation and governance. Security, the first of the four and the one to which most relevance is given, highlights the pressing need to cooperate with Canada in subject communication, surveillance and preparedness for possible adverse situations, and establishes an "increase in the US Coast Guard icebreaking fleet to support a permanent presence in Arctic national waters and a greater presence if required in the European Arctic".
The remaining three pillars, also new compared to the previous edition, and of a much more general nature, include: investment in new infrastructure ("the largest investment in physical infrastructure in almost a century"); greater investment in research climate to better adapt to changes resulting from melting ice; and emphasizing the validity of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea as an instrument for delimiting and defining the continental shelves of each Arctic country.
What's next
At final, Washington's new Arctic strategy highlights the change that the region is undergoing, and will continue to undergo over the coming decades as the ice melt progresses. Russia and China are emerging as major geopolitical rivals, with interests that could compromise the security of NATO countries and destabilize a region traditionally characterized by a lack of conflict. As the thaw increases the navigable area, it is to be expected that the naval presence of the countries involved in the region will increase both commercially and militarily.
On the other hand, the addition of countries outside the region (besides China) that wish to cooperate with Russia once the region is completely free of ice will reveal an additional complication. While Russia with the Northern Route, or Canada with the Northwest Passage, consider these waters as national territory, the United States advocates its internationalization to be able to exploit them as well. Inevitably, the melting of the ice will bring with it the need for new legal frameworks to clearly delimit and establish what belongs to whom, and what can be done in these regions.
In this way, the exceptionalism of the Arctic comes to an end in this decade, to become a new stage - in time perhaps one of the main ones - in the great powers' maritime struggle that will characterize the world order.