Towards a New World Order: The Age of Revenge

The Global Affairs correspondent for the newspaper 'El País', Andrea Rizzi, analyzes in this essay his vision of the current global scenario, which he calls 'The era of revenge'. Rizzi explains the current context as the result two revanchist processes that are developing in parallel.

The first consists of the disaffection with the system experienced by the social classes of the global North that have been disadvantaged or less favored by the globalization process. This discontent has also been fueled by the inflationary tensions resulting from the war in Ukraine, which have led to a loss of purchasing power. This feeling of loss of social status has translated into the adoption of political options outside the traditional system and an increase in nationalist sentiment, which would explain phenomena such as Brexit, the two presidencies of Donald Trump or the rise of extreme right-wing parties in Europe.

The second revanchist process reference letter to the will of various actors to challenge the current world order, as well as the questioning of the universalism of human rights and democracy. The author points out as a cause the design of the international institutional architecture, which does not reflect the political, economic and demographic status of our current world.

For example, the UN Security committee is composed of five permanent members with veto rights, including France and the United Kingdom, but not India, the world's most populous country, whose Economics is greater than those of the other two nations. It also mentions the International Monetary Fund, where China has 6 % of the voting rights compared to Germany's 5.3 %, its Economics being four times larger.

Rizzi notes that the 'era of revenge' first manifested itself in 2008 with the Russian invasion of Georgia. In his speech at the Munich Security lecture in 2007, Putin had already been expressing his dissatisfaction with the international order established after the Cold War, characterized by unipolarity around the United States and by Russia's demotion from the superpower status that the USSR had held during the second half of the century.

As far as China is concerned, its entry into the World Trade Organization at the beginning of the century brought about an unprecedented economic development that has allowed it, in less than two decades, to regain its position as a global power lost throughout the 19th century. Xi's rise to power has been characterized not only by a personality cult not seen since Mao's times, but also by a much more assertive stance in its foreign relations, in line with the desire to regain its central position on the global chessboard.

Other players, such as India, are also acquiring greater economic and demographic weight on the global stage, which is not reflected in the international order. New Delhi is torn between its alliance with the West to defend itself against China and its regional ally, Pakistan, and its leadership of the global south through the BRICS. In addition to other factors, on the international core topic , this scenario gives wings to the ethno-nationalist ideology championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In the face of what Rizzi considers an involution in the global order proposed by some actors, he proposes a reformist evolution that takes into account the new demographic and power balances, as well as the legitimate claims of many actors, without relativizing human rights and democracy in the international order. The author points out that, historically, world orders have changed as a result of major confrontations, such as the Peace of Westphalia after the Thirty Years' War, or the Vienna congress after the Napoleonic Wars, or the consensus reached after the two World Wars. Although history does not repeat itself, but often rhymes, we should learn from it and act in advance.

This reform proposal would logically entail concessions on the part of some actors, mainly Western ones. However, these could be offset by the establishment of a new, reformed world order that would be more attractive and allow for the continuation of the multilateral, rules-based governance that has proved so beneficial. "Sometimes, what is ethical coincides with what is most convenient," Rizzi points out, explaining that abuse generates resentment and this, in turn, generates a desire for revenge, which is not beneficial in the long run.

Finally, for all these reasons, the author proposes the implementation of a series of measures goal at reforming global governance, including the reform of the Security committee to make it more representative, with the inclusion of India and Brazil and, to some extent, the African continent. He also suggests reforming the Bretton Woods financial institutions, modifying their voting rights quotas. Finally, his reform proposal calls for developed countries to assume their responsibility in subject fight against climate change in proportion to their contribution to the phenomenon.