German results augur more efficient government with Merz

The results of the German elections augur a more effective government than the outgoing one. The leadership projection of Friedrich Merz, more defined than that of the defeated Olaf Scholz, and the future compromise between only two political groups -CDU/CSU and SPD, something less complex than mediating between three (the outgoing 'traffic light' coalition SPD, Greens and Liberals)- should help to restore Germany's leading role in Europe. And that, in turn, should make it easier for the European Union to move forward in its response to the challenges posed by the first great crisis of Atlanticism in which we find ourselves.

The Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats should not find it very difficult to reach a pact, although the talks may run aground for some time on certain aspects. The success of the new government depends both on the former managing to put an electoral ceiling on Alternative for Germany, and on the latter, after the worst results in the history of the FRG, avoiding being overtaken in the next elections by the extreme left, perhaps by joining forces between Die Linke and the breakaway Sahra Wagenknecht, whose party has been on the verge of entering the Bundestag.

If on election night it seemed that the new government would have to be a three-party government (which would have especially highlighted Merz's lackluster result , the second worst obtained by the CDU), the non-participation of the Greens greatly facilitates the rapprochement between the Union and the SPD. The Bavarian CSU had already drawn some red lines that could abort the understanding in this tripartite. On the other hand, the non-presence of the Liberals, excluded because they fell below 5% of the votes, poses less unacceptable requirements for the SPD (their disagreement led precisely to early elections). In any case, compared to the slim majority of the Union and the SPD (328 seats, eight above the absolute majority), the strength of the extremes together (216) constitutes a blocking minority for reforms requiring broad support.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian lobby within the SPD has already been dismantled, and the goodwill in the economic relationship with China represented by Scholz has been discredited, the future government is supposed to be born without being tied to policies that have been shown to be wrong. In the CDU, too, Merz represents a turning of the page with respect to Merkel, both with regard to immigration and perhaps with regard to nuclear energy: the lack of Russian gas and the greater demand for electricity that digitalization - a particularly pending subject - should entail, could make the country reconsider certain energy taboos.

The increase in the radical vote, to the right and to the left, seen in the elections invites the two traditional center political formations to strengthen together, but this also has its risks. The German economic model is in need of reconversion and that threatens work, with the likely upheaval on the streets in the event of a recession. There are no quick and easy solutions, but the social desire for them fuels the extremes.

The political urgency comes from the peace negotiations in Ukraine and Europe's relations with the Trump Administration. Merz is in a position, more so than French President Emmanuel Macron, to rebuild some bridges with Washington and to articulate the response of a Europe increasingly outside the U.S. military umbrella.