Climate disruptions hit Argentina and Brazil, two of the world's breadbaskets

In a context of increasingly frequent extreme weather events, in 2023 South America experienced for the third consecutive year a severe drought, the worst in a century. Argentina and Brazil, two of the world's largest granaries, have faced the consequences of a triple La Niña episode. The role of Brazil and Argentina in global food supply highlights the need for a strategic and sustainable approach to address the emerging challenges of climate change on food security in the region.

The World Meteorological Organization defines La Niña as a phenomenon that produces a large-scale cooling of the surface waters of the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific, in addition to other changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, affecting winds, pressure and precipitation. It generally has weather and climate effects opposite to those of El Niño, which is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, such natural phenomena now occur in the current context of climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to an increase in global temperature average , changes in precipitation patterns, continued sea level rise, reduction of the cryosphere and accentuation of extreme weather patterns. These variations have pronounced consequences in a region as directly related to the natural environment as Latin America.

Argentina

Argentina, the world's third largest soybean producer and exporter behind Brazil and the United States, suffered a historic 43% drop in its crop for the 2022/2023 season compared to the previous season due to drought. In the 2021/2022 season, Argentina produced 43.90 million tons of soybeans, a figure that reached just 25 million tons in the 2022/2023 season. result As a result, the oilseed complex, which includes soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, among other by-products, saw its exports decrease. To supply the demand, Argentina bought soybeans from Brazil, becoming the second destination of Brazilian soybeans, after China. The drop in production also had a negative impact on Argentina's position in key markets where the country used to be the world's leading exporter, such as soybean meal, a position it left in the hands of Brazil after 25 years. Between January and August 2023, Brazil exported 15.34 million tons of soybean meal, while Argentine shipments amounted to 11.74 million tons.

The agricultural sector represents around 7% of Argentina's GDP, as well as 55% of its exports. The soybean complex leads the South American country's agricultural exports, followed by corn and wheat. The decline in the soybean harvest had an impact on the country's foreign currency income, which stood at US$ 11.03 billion in the first semester of 2023, a 42% year-on-year drop.

Aware of the vulnerability of its crops to climatic phenomena, in April 2023, the Argentine government launched the Integral Plan Argentina Irrigada, which plans to increase the area under irrigation in the country by 90%. There is no timeframe to achieve this goal; the plan currently includes 95 infrastructure projects. At present, only 5% of the 42 million hectares cultivated in Argentina are under irrigation. In this regard, in September 2023 the Inter-American Bank of development (IDB) approved a credit 100 million dollars to execute rural infrastructure works through the Provincial Agricultural Services Program (PROSAP). The loan obtained for PROSAP will favor the adoption of technologies that promote environmental sustainability, adaptation to climate change, and economic profitability for small and medium-size agricultural producers.

Brazil

Brazil faces similar challenges. La Niña brought more rainfall to the north and northeast of the country and drought to the south, affecting corn, soybean and wheat growing regions. While corn and wheat have limited tolerance to heat, climate stress has a more moderate effect on soybean production. After a drop of about 9% in soybean production in the 2021/2022 season, Brazil harvested a record crop production in the 2022/2023 harvest, representing a 23.1% increase over the previous year. The South American country also achieved record corn production in the 2022/2023 season, positioning it as the world's leading exporter of soybeans and the second leading exporter of corn in 2022.

Agriculture is one of the main instructions of Brazil's Economics , accounting for 6.8% of GDP. In recent decades, irrigation has played a role core topic in the growth of Brazilian agriculture, with 54% of the country's water consumption going to irrigation systems. However, decreasing precipitation, longer dry periods and warmer temperatures resulting from climate change are expected to increase water evaporation fees , reducing both surface and groundwater availability . This reality raises serious concerns about the long-term sustainability of irrigation systems, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive and sustainable strategies to ensure water security and resilience of the agricultural sector in the face of emerging climate challenges.

Heat waves in Brazil are increasingly frequent, threatening the physical integrity or even the lives of Brazilians. In 2023, the country experienced an intense heat wave that affected several cities, with record temperatures and extremely high thermal sensations, reaching 58.5 Degrees Celsius in Rio de Janeiro. According to the World Bank, extreme weather events - such as droughts, flash floods and overflowing rivers in cities - cause annual losses in Brazil of around R$13 billion a year. Added to this are the challenges of deforestation in the Amazon, which recorded a net loss of forest mass of 430.4 km2 in January 2022 alone. After an acceleration of deforestation in the Amazon during Jair Bolsonaro's government, logging was reduced by 33.6% in the first semester of 2023. The above effects underscore the need for policies that help mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and safeguard the country's environmental and economic future.

The La Plata Basin

The rivers that make up the La Plata basin, which has about three million km2 of surface area, have recorded an extraordinary low water level since the austral winter of 2019. In particular, 2020 ushered in a historic low in the Paraná River, the second largest river in South America after the Amazon. The river stretches some 4,880 km between Brazil, where it has its sources, Paraguay and Argentina, where it flows into the Rio de la Plata, and is a core topic part of the commercial and fishing industry. It is also one of the most important waterways for the transport of grain. If in 2019 the level of the Paraná at the Argentine port of Rosario was at 4.49 meters, in 2020 it dropped to one meter and in July 2021 it stood at only 0.20 meters, the worst record since 1944. During 2023 the river increased its flow thanks to rainfall in the upper basin in Brazil. Despite this, concerns remain about the sustainability of river flow, as the climate trend remains unfavorable for a rapid recovery.

The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is the third largest groundwater reservation in the world in terms of surface area and coincides with the basin of the Paraná and La Plata rivers. The Guarani extends over 1.2 million km2 beneath the surface of mainly Brazil, but also Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. Low recharge capacity is the most common problem in our planet's aquifers, as it is usually not enough to cover the amount extracted, thus jeopardizing their sustainable use. Situations of extreme drought in the SAG countries jeopardize the aquifer's renewal capacity (between 160 and 250 km3 per year), since the aquifer depends very directly on rainfall and the distribution of water in the atmosphere.

In November 2020, the 'agreement on the Guarani Aquifer' signed in 2010 by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay came into force with the aim of establishing a legal framework legal framework for its conservation and management. Aware of the strategic importance of the aquifer, the SAG countries in partnership with the Bank of Latin America development (CAF) and UNESCO are promoting the project 'Implementation of the Guarani Aquifer Strategic Action Program: enabling regional actions'. The initiative has $2 million in funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) to design and execute field tests; agree on a multipurpose monitoring network ; promote participation with a gender perspective, dissemination and scientific-technical capacity building, in the interest of a greater scientific knowledge on the SAG.

Paraguay and Uruguay

The triple episode of the La Niña phenomenon also affected the Paraguayan Chaco region, in the north of the country. Soybean is the crop with the largest volume produced in Paraguay and the most important for the generation of foreign exchange for the country. Drought conditions significantly reduced soybean production in the 2021/2022 season, which reached 4.18 million tons, 56.6% less than the previous season. This is the worst crop since 1985/1986 and the most leave production since 2008/2009, when the cultivated area was 25% lower. An increase in rainfall levels allowed the 2022/2023 crop to reach normal figures, about 10 million tons of soybeans.

Uruguay, with 60% of its territory affected by extreme drought, declared an agricultural emergency in October 2022, effective until December 2023. In this regard, the Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries implemented a line of support for livestock, dairy, horticulture, fruit and agriculture for the entire national territory in rural areas, which was later extended to beekeeping, poultry and forestry.

Due to the water deficit, 28% of the summer crop area in Uruguay was not harvested and was used for grazing or for cattle fodder reservation . Uruguayan soybean production reached 700,000 tons, its lowest level in sixteen years. Other crops such as corn, sorghum and sunflower also showed low yields as result of the drought.

South America has experienced an increase in food insecurity in recent years, driven by the increased frequency of extreme weather events. According to the report on the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, published by the United Nations, at least 118 million people in Latin America did not have access to sufficient food in 2021. Adding to political conflicts, economic recessions, the Covid-19 pandemic and even the war in Ukraine, climate change will continue to put additional pressure on the food systems, public finances and infrastructure of countries in the region.