Mexico, the focus of Trump's relationship with Latin America

In addition to dealing with the priorities set by the international diary - the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East - Donald Trump is supposed to pursue a foreign policy in line with his first term in office on his return to the White House. There are, however, some modulations. The selection of framework Rubio as Secretary of State, who as a senator has stood out for his active role in relation to Latin America, invites us to think of a presidency relatively more attentive to the continent itself. There will probably be a greater emphasis, if possible, on immigration and drug trafficking, making Mexico an important focus of this interaction, in which there will also be room for trade issues.

In its relationship with Latin America, Donald Trump's second presidency could move from relative indifference to a more active and decisive posture. Specifically, the United States will focus a significant part of its efforts on Mexico, where policies will prioritize a border impermeable to irregular immigration, an intensified fight against crime and a renegotiation of the main trade agreement. Mexico is bracing itself for the challenge of a more threatening United States with clear priorities at subject security.

During Trump's first term, a key foreign policy focus was immigration, which was also reflected in some treaties. For example, the Asylum Cooperation Agreements with Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, which allowed the United States to deport migrants back to one of those countries as a "safe third country", although their effectiveness was reduced. With respect to certain countries, the United States will vary its proactivity depending on its national interests. Brazil is not at the top of the list of priorities, and as for Argentina, the good feeling with President Milei could translate into concrete policies. In Peru, the new port of Chancay, built by the Chinese business Cosco Shipping Ports, creates tension due to the growing influence of the Asian giant in the region. As far as Colombiais concerned, the United States will exert pressure on Petro's government to increase control of drug trafficking, fitting in somehow with the president's questionable 'Total Peace'. In El Salvador, sympathy for Nayib Bukele may help strengthen ties, although relations will continue to be primarily about immigration. Trump designated Cuba as a 'State sponsor of terrorism' before leaving the White House and a similar hard line towards the island is expected in this second term. The appointment of framework Rubio as Secretary of State announced by Trump would rule out the opening of a broad dialogue with Maduro's Venezuela and would ratify the line of confrontation -at a distance- maintained in his first term; in fact, the recognition of Edmundo González as president-elect just made by the Biden Administration may already be marking that orientation of greater pressure.

Rubio's confirmation in the Senate would likely mark a period of increased U.S. attention to the region. Born in Miami to parents who fled Fidel Castro's revolution, Rubio has a reputation as a 'hawk' and embraces Trump's plan for mass deportations of migrants. He has also applauded Bukele and is critical of Boric and Petro. As for Venezuela, he has his own 'Rubio Doctrine', which materialized in his crucial role in recognizing Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela in 2019.

Looking at Mexico

The country governed by Claudia Sheinbaum should expect a continuation of policies under the guise of campaign rhetoric regarding immigration issues, mass deportations and tariff threats. In his first term, Donald Trump redefined border policy and revised the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), renamed the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC). The signature of this new agreement allowed the United States to use trade issues to gain leverage in immigration negotiations. Trump's subsequent pressures on Mexico to implement more border controls were vital to attempt a drastic reduction of illegal flow and the 'Stay in Mexico' policy was established, which forced those arriving at the U.S. border seeking asylum to remain in Mexico while their case was being decided. However, with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) Mexico became the main trade partner of the United States, and remains so. With that, Mexico has some room to negotiate if it cooperates on U.S. priorities, as AMLO did by promising to implement greater security on the Mexican side of the border.

However, the rhetoric of the last campaign and differing positions make the relationship between Sheinbaum and Trump difficult. Many of Trump's promises are expected to go forward, and immigration from Mexico is a priority issue. Moreover, Trump's mandate is further enabled by the Republican Party winning the Senate and the House of Representatives, which widens his room for maneuver.

It is important to add that U.S. trade dependence with Mexico has increased, so it will not be an easy task to put pressure on subject immigration without affecting trade. The main line of action will be border security, as suggested by appointments such as 'border czar' Tom Homan. Although the wall has not been mentioned as much as in previous presidential campaigns, construction will continue and border control units will be reinforced. Central to all diplomatic interactions will be the issue of fentanyl and other opioids, whose entrance in the U.S. are creating an urgent public health crisis.

On the trade front, Mexico has an important opportunity. The T-MEC has a six-year review mechanism, so the official review will be in 2026. This procedure could be used as an instrument to pressure Mexico, but Sheinbaum can also use it to her advantage to show Mexico's trade dependence and thus cushion Trump's threats; she could also rely on U.S. companies that benefit from the T-MEC and depend on their plants in Mexico. After Mexico has allowed Chinese companies to expand their presence in the country in recent years, raising fears in Washington that they will seek to enter the U.S. through that back door, Sheinbaum has proposed to her T-MEC counterparts a plan to reduce imports from China.

The question is to what extent Sheinbaum is willing to negotiate and cooperate with the Trump Administration. Rubio accused AMLO of endorsing the tyrannies of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, as well as of surrendering to the drug cartels. Precisely in relation to drug trafficking, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, was one of the advocates of the initiative launched last year to classify Mexican cartels as terrorists and thus sustain that they can be attacked by the US Armed Forces in Mexican territory.