Reverse' migration: El Darien begins to see migrants returning to the South

report SRA 2025 / [ pdf version ].

√ Since December 2024, once Trump was elected, the issue of people crossing north through the Darien bottleneck dropped by about 90%.

√ Already upon becoming Panamanian president in July 2024, José Raúl Mulino began deportations, paid for by the U.S., of those crossing the jungle from Colombia.

√ Mulino has agreed to receive migrants returned by Washington and then send them back to their places of origin, amid questions about human rights.

It remains to be seen whether the trend will grow and be maintained, as the causes behind the intense migratory phenomenon are underlying, but the authorities themselves have detected a reverse migratory flow, not to the United States, but back from its border, in the intricate passage through the Darien jungle. Colombian authorities claim that at the beginning of 2025 some 200 people are arriving daily from Panama, while those of this country fear that the figure will reach 5,000 in some daily peaks throughout this year, according to testimonies collected by the WSJ.

This is a new dynamic and a complete turnaround from what has been experienced in recent years, when the Darien Pass, previously an impassable place, became, while maintaining its risks of all subject, a corridor that opened up migration on foot from South America to North America. Between 2021 and 2023, more than 900,000 people took that route. The drastic increase in the passage of people through this point of Central America began after the Covid 19 pandemic: in 2021 transits shot up to 130,000, in 2022 they reached 250,000 and in 2023 they exceeded 520,000. Restrictions applied thereafter reduced the figure to 302,000 in 2024 and in 2025 an even much lower Issue is expected.

This Panamanian jungle on its border with Colombia - the only point that interrupts the Pan-American Highway, hence the name Tapón del Darién - is a vast swampy expanse, historically almost impenetrable, covering 17,000 km2. It is home to criminal groups and human traffickers operating outside the law, exacerbating the vulnerability of those who seek to cross it. Here, migrants face not only the harsh terrain and extreme weather conditions; the presence of trafficking, extortion and violence networks adds a dimension that is difficult to control and exposes state limitations in the region.

In previous years, the Darien crossing was mostly used by people from other continents, especially Asia and Africa, but has since become the main route followed by Haitians, Cubans and Venezuelans as living conditions in their countries have severely deteriorated.

Mulino and Trump

The arrival of José Raúl Mulino as Panama's president in July 2024 marked a turning point, albeit a moderate one. His election campaign focused on promises to "close the Darien" and contain the flow of migrants through mass deportations, a strategy designed, according to the government, to discourage migrants from using this route. As soon as he took position, the new president signed a US State department program with the US to deport migrants arriving in Panama after crossing the Darien, responding to growing political pressure from Washington to curb irregular migration.

With the re-election of Donald Trump, partnership efforts were redoubled. Thus, in Trump's first weeks in the White House, the Panamanian National Migration Service executed seven expulsion and deportation flights in partnership with the United States, which resulted in a historic decrease of 94% in the entry of irregular migrants to Panama in January 2025, compared to the same month of the previous year, as highlighted by the SNM in its social networks. Already the previous month, with Trump victorious electorally but not yet having entered the White House, the reduction of actual entries into Panama had dropped by 80% compared to December 2023. The fear of the particularly restrictive policies announced by Trump prevented many people from making the journey to the US, and those who still set out had to face the risk of repatriations operated by the Panamanian authorities.

Mulino himself has stated "ClosedMulino himself has declared the Darien Pass "Closed", both because of the clearly lower Issue of people arriving from Colombia and because of the consequent closure of the migrant reception stations established at the exit of the jungle. The 'reverse' migrants no longer cross the difficult pass, as they no longer have to go clandestinely as on their outward journey, but on their return they take boats in Panama to cross the Gulf of Urabá and reach Colombia.

In addition to the deportations carried out by the Panamanian government from its territory, the Trump Administration has added those from the US, sending to Panama migrants of many different nationalities that the Central American country must then send back to their countries of origin or other places. This strategy responds to Washington's difficulty in deporting migrants from countries such as Afghanistan, Iran or China, because diplomatic restrictions make their repatriation difficult. Panama, in the midst of Trump's pressures related to the control of the Canal, has assumed the role of core topic link in this migratory strategy.

Controversial deportations

This has provoked international controversy, especially because the asylum request that many migrants intended to process upon arrival at the U.S. border was not considered. Instead of having their cases evaluated, they are detained by border guards and Army personnel, chained in chains and flown to Panama. The fate of these migrants is uncertain. According to the testimony of a large group, upon arrival in Panama, their passports were confiscated, as well as most of their cell phones, and they were locked up in a hotel without access to lawyers, waiting to be sent to a makeshift camp on the outskirts of the Darien region, in the town of San Vicente. On February 20, Panamanian authorities carried out the first transfer to this detention center in the Darien, a measure harshly criticized by international media due to the precarious conditions of these facilities. In the face of the controversy generated, the Panamanian government finally released these migrants, requiring them to leave the country within 30 days, although some of them assured that they would try again to reach the US. As of early March, Washington had sent three flights to Panama, with a total of 299 migrants.

The Mulino government has defended its actions, assuring that the operation of transfer from the US to Panama and temporary stay in this country would be supervised by UN agencies, while insisting on the validity of the outsourcing of migration management carried out by the United States and which has also been extended to Costa Rica.

However, international organizations warn that these measures may violate the principle of 'non-refoulement', a fundamental right in international refugee law, which prohibits expelling people to countries where their life or freedom would be in danger. The UNHCR has stressed that many of these migrants may qualify for international protection and that deporting them without assessing their cases violates their rights. The challenge for Panama is that mass deportations may not only be ineffective in generating new migratory routes, but could also increase risks for migrants and deteriorate security in the region. In addition, anti-immigrant rhetoric could fuel xenophobic attitudes in the country and hinder the integration of those migrants who, for various reasons, end up staying in Panama.

Although only 3% of the migrants who crossed the Darien so far expressed their intention to stay in the country - the vast majority intended to reach the United States; to a lesser extent, Mexico or Canada - the new obstacles in the north have generated a concentration effect in the Darien region, the poorest in Panama. A year ago, eight out of ten respondents said that, if they could not reach their goal, they would wait until they were allowed to proceed. Sixty-seven percent of Haitians and Venezuelans interviewed reported not having received any information subject the new requirements for entry into the United States.