Milei: What to Expect in Foreign Policy

After an election marked initially by citizen insecurity and then by the difficult status In the midst of Argentina's economic crisis, Javier Milei comes to the presidency with a series of radical prescriptions that remain to be seen in what way they will be able to Degree Applies. In subject On foreign policy, Milei has not been very specific, beyond presenting himself as an 'anti-communist' crusader; while it will strengthen relations with the United States and Israel, it will also have to assume large doses of pragmatism, especially in economic relations with Brazil and China. His election adds fuel to the impetus of the Latin American left in the reactivation of CELAC and Unasur.

Although foreign policy played a residual role in Argentina's presidential election, the leading candidates hinted at their ambitions in debates, speeches and interviews. Issues such as the functionality of Mercosur, the role of China, the sovereignty of the Malvinas, or even relations with the Holy See came up on a recurring basis.

In general terms, Javier Milei's candidacy – through the presidential candidate of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) himself and his adviser Diana Mondino – maintained an ideological vision of international relations, marked by anti-communism and the rejection of governments "that do not respect the ideas of freedom". The new president expressed in the last discussion his intention to align Argentina with the United States, Israel and all those countries that belong to the "free world", as well as the institutional distancing with Brazil and China. The latter two countries are Argentina's current largest trading partners, so there is a risk that the new government's stance will harm those exchanges.

His first trip abroad as president-elect was to the United States, where he also maintained a close contact with part of the Jewish community, thus setting their priorities. In relation to Brazil, however, Milei seems to be taking a turn, with the invitation to Brazilian President Lula da Silva to his inauguration; It also has a pragmatic attitude in relation to trade with China, a country with which it can maintain political distance without damaging Argentine exports to that country. In any case, in line with his libertarian ideology, he has insisted on limiting the intervention of the State in commercial relations with the outside world, where he believes that the classic 'laissez faire' and the free action of private subjects should prevail.

In the election campaign, his direct opponent in the second round, the Peronist Sergio Massa, advised by Ambassador Gustavo Martínez Pandiani, defended a pragmatic vision of Argentina's relations with the world, included in his "Plan of Action". His proposal It was based on a line of continuity combined with some changes with a strong economic motivation. Basically, his coalition promoted the development of commercial alliances that would increase exports and attract investment and inbound tourism. In this regard, the strengthening of ties with Brazil and China as Argentina's main trading partners, the entrance in the BRICS alliance and further integration into Mercosur were the main objectives. On these matters, Milei openly disagreed with Massa.

Mercosur

The functionality of the Southern Common Market was one of the main points of collision between the ambitions of both candidates. Massa advocated greater regional coordination and integration, understanding that Mercosur is a bloc that could boost the region's role in the world. Milei's position, on the other hand, is closer to that of Uruguayan President Lacalle Pou, promoting changes from the flexibility of the bloc to its reformulation or even dissolution.

Despite the fact that the new president went so far as to affirm the latter as "a flawed customs union that harms Argentines", the most widely held opinion is that this option does not seem feasiblein the short term. Not only would Argentina have no authority to dissolve it, but the mere exit from the bloc would require the denunciation of the Treaty of Asunción through the congress. Taking into account that LLA does not have a parliamentary majority, the new government's action would be, at most, limited to freezing relations across the bloc, as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro did in his day.

However, it seems that even this will not be the option immediately chosen by the new government, since no abrupt change in Argentina's position is expected in the short term. This was confirmed by Diana Mondino, who stated that Mercosur "has been functioning as a customs union and with a small touch it can turn around a big one. We have to associate and negotiate between our countries, together with the rest of the world. That will be fantastic for all four [countries]."

BRICS

On August 24, President Alberto Fernández announced Argentina's official incorporation into the BRICS alliance in 2024. Far from being unanimously welcomed in Buenos Aires, the advertisement It caused a stir between the two main opposition forces, who expressed their disagreement with the measure. Candidate Patricia Bullrich and Milei himself reiterated their civil service examination to the entrance of the country in the alliance (which so far has been part of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), both because of differences with some current members and those with Iran, a country that will also join in January 2024.

On the other hand, Sergio Massa's team defended throughout the campaign the advisability of such an entry, endorsed by Brazil. "When you don't sit down at the table to be a diner, you end up being the food," Martínez Pandiani himself said , referring to the refusal of the civil service examination. Peronism not only saw in this entry a greater South-South integration and the link with a group which represents 25% of the world's GDP, but also valued the possibility of accessing a source alternative foreign financing to the IMF, through the New Bank of development.

Looking to the future, there is every reason to believe that the evaluation of the new government's incorporation will be marked by economic pragmatism and status of the country rather than ideological overtones. However, Milei's pro-American orientation seems incompatible with continuity in the alliance in the medium to long term.

Bilateral relations

Under the future government of Javier Milei, it is presumed that institutional relations with the other countries in the region will be conditioned by the ideological positioning of their governments. The most obvious example is the countries of the Bolivarian axis, which Milei describes as 'off-siders' with a foreign policy contrary to Argentina's national interest. Far from the acquiescence proposed by Massa and allowed by Alberto Fernández, Milei argues for the need to break diplomatic relations with countries such as Venezuela, Cuba or Nicaragua. In this sense, his election adds water to the impetus of the Latin American left in the reactivation of CELAC and Unasur.

However, the election of the new president could also strengthen diplomatic ties between Argentina and other countries. test this is the relationship between Milei and his counterpart Lacalle Pou, which is better anticipated than the one between the latter and Alberto Fernández. Thus, the flexibilization of Mercosur could be promoted and progress could be made in the agreement signed with the European Union in 2017 (yet to be finalized in its essay final), issues on which Massa's team was more sceptical. An improvement in the relationship with the United States is also expected, given Milei's insistence on "ideological alignment" with the North American giant. But this won't be immediate. While it is true that his relationship with Donald Trump is very good, Joe Biden is still reluctant to approach Milei and is waiting to see what direction the new government takes.

The question of the Falklands

It is at this point, of capital historical and cultural importance for Argentina, that the position of both candidates was more similar. Beyond a statement by Diana Mondino to 'The Telegraph' in which she said that the rights of the islanders would be respected , the position of the candidates regarding sovereignty over the Malvinas has been the same. This could be witnessed in the second discussion In which both reiterated the importance of the constitutional premise that declares sovereignty over the islands.

However, a resolution to this matter does not yet seem feasible. Milei declared his determination to take back the islands through diplomatic channels, but British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has already closed the door on any subject of negotiation.

However, any hasty conclusion of a change in Argentina's foreign relations must be qualified. Although there are analysts who believe that the cooling of institutional relations with China and Brazil would have devastating consequences for the country's international trade, there are many who put the effects of these policies into perspective. Neither does it seem that Argentina is risking so much in its relationship with China, nor will the cooling of relations with Brazil inevitably lead to the loss of all bilateral trade between the two countries. If it serves as a precedent, it is worth remembering that Bolsonaro maintained intense trade with China, where he even traveled as president to meet with Xi Jinping, despite the fact that in his election campaign he had advocated a break with Beijing.

In any case, the changes that Milei repeated during the campaign do not seem to be materializing in the short term. The new government is expected to take a pragmatic stance and maintain trade ties with all its current partners, at least until it is able to stabilize the economy. status and have enough support to form new alliances.