Who governs Mexico today, Sheinbaum or AMLO?

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, president issue 65 of Mexico and founder of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), ceded power in 2024 to his successor and political ally, Claudia Sheinbaum. His government was distinguished by a personalist and populist leadership, under the slogan of the 'Fourth Transformation' (4T), which prioritized social justice and the strengthening of the State, but left deep challenges in subject security, institutionality and political polarization.

Morena, for its part, went from being a protest movement to consolidating itself as a hegemonic party, evoking the times of the "perfect dictatorship" of the PRI (1929-2000), as Mario Vargas Llosa called it. AMLO left not only his successor but also a series of reforms approved after his departure that have transformed the Mexican political system. In this new political scenario a central question arises: who really governs Mexico today, President Sheinbaum or Morena's moral leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador?

AMLO's political bequest

First of all, it is fundamental to understand that AMLO built a political model rooted in popular rather than institutional legitimacy. Through social populism and narrative control, he established a solid support base where citizens feel directly identified with political power. His project of the Fourth Transformation seeks that the legitimacy of the State emanates from the people, not from traditional institutions.

The very term 'fourth transformation' is meant to enhance the image of the Morena party and its leader, since it places him on the same level as the historical heroes who were part of the three previous 'transformations'. In this way AMLO properly positioned himself as a future historical figure leading the rebirth of Mexico under the 4T, so his followers admire him almost as a 'revolutionary leader'. AMLO held more than 1,400 'mañaneras' in six years, controlling the media diary without intermediaries. Sheinbaum maintains this format, benefiting from inherited legitimacy, but limiting her ability to differentiate.

On the economic front, AMLO prioritized the strengthening of the State using public companies such as PEMEX and CFE, to the detriment of foreign investors. He also militarized several civilian tasks, from public security to infrastructure construction, drastically normalizing the army's presence in the country's daily life.

In summary, López Obrador left his successor a country more aware of inequality and therefore more socially divided, where presidential charisma keeps the civil service examination weak. López Obrador's six-year term did not end with his departure: his institutional, symbolic and ideological bequest continues to define the limits of Mexican politics.

AMLO's residual power

"Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's shadow will haunt his successor," headlined 'The Economist' reflecting the current reality of President Sheinbaum. She leads a country where the former president continues to mark the public diary without occupying any position. AMLO retains more than 66% citizen approval more than a year after leaving position, an exceptional figure for a former Mexican president. This support turns his opinions into political instructions: what AMLO approves prospers; what he criticizes is stopped.

Through the control of Morena and the loyalty of governors, senators and deputies, he maintains decision-making capacity over candidacies, reforms and alliances. According to the Wilson Center, "her movement functions more as a vertical structure than as a democratic party". Therefore, we can interpret that Mexico has a dual leadership; the president governs, but the founder of the movement dictates the direction of the country.

Sheinbaum, between continuity and self-identity

Dr. Sheinbaum has from 2024 the double task of giving continuity to López Obrador's bequest and at the same time building her own identity. Her more technical profile contrasts with the charismatic and combative style of her predecessor. Sheinbaum represents a more institutional and less polarizing version of 'obradorismo', but firmly anchored in the principles of the Fourth Transformation.

His government plan, graduate 'The 100 steps to build your Mexico', aims at a managementapproach efficiency and long-term planning. He has also sought a more conciliatory tone with the private sector, achieving investment commitments of more than US$20 billion with Mexican and US businessmen, thus marking certain differences with his predecessor's government plan. However, he has also given continuity to López Obrador's social programs, making it clear that the axis of government remains the same: social justice.

In her very recent book 'Diario de una Transición Histórica', Sheinbaum praises López Obrador, describing him as "the leader who gave hope back to the people" and presenting her own mandate as a continuation of the historic task begun by her predecessor. On the cover of the book she appears walking alongside the former president, symbolizing that Mexico, under López Obrador and Sheinbaum, is headed in the same direction. In this way she seeks to consolidate her inherited legitimacy, and at the same time demonstrate that she also has a plan C the moral power of Morena.

Sheinbaum has excellent approval fees . According to 'El Economista', 71.5% of the Mexican population approves of the president, with a rising trend. This increases her freedom of action, but also puts her in front of a paradox: If she exercises too much autonomy, she may lose the legitimacy granted to her by her predecessor's followers, causing her approval to fall. However, if it remains too aligned, its leadership could be diluted under the shadow of the founder. Thus, by analyzing the decisions she has made so far, we can deduce to what extent AMLO's influence is still present in her government.

In his first months in office, the most relevant decisions, from the continuity of social programs to the strategic appointments in Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) and the Federal Electricity Commission, reflect the permanence of the political and economic model outlined by his predecessor.

His cabinet is mostly composed of figures close to López Obrador. This guarantees political cohesion, but limits the margins of presidential autonomy. Morena governors and legislators continue to see AMLO as the moral arbiter of the movement; his statements from Palenque, the municipality in Chiapas where he has his farm, retain almost institutional weight. Sheinbaum governs with formal legitimacy, while López Obrador retains symbolic and disciplinary power.

Strategic scenarios: Three possible futures...

Mexico's political future under Claudia Sheinbaum's administration will depend on the Degree of influence that López Obrador maintains over the public diary and the Morena party. Based on current trends, three possible trajectories of power sharing between the two leaders can be delineated:

1) The first and most likely scenario, and the one the current administration seems to be opting for, is conciliation. Sheinbaum governs in tune with the Fourth Transformation, while AMLO gradually reduces his media exhibition and acts as a moral reference. This generates absence of public criticism of the former president, maintenance of social programs intact and technical but loyal appointments in Pemex and CFE. This vision assumes that there will be moderate to high institutional stability.

2) On the other hand, the president seeks autonomy and AMLO may respond by exerting pressure from Morena or public opinion. If this happens, it will be visible through declarations of the former president questioning policies, legislative resistance from pro-worker cadres and mobilization of instructions, which would increase political volatility, slow down structural reforms and lead to a reappearance of spaces for civil service examination.

3) Finally, the most unlikely scenario is that of an economic or political crisis that pushes Sheinbaum to contradict the 4T, which would almost certainly lead to a crisis of governance, possible internal fracture in Morena and risk of electoral advance.

... and a finding

Mexico is a country with a president who governs from her desk and an ex-president who continues to set the pulse from the shadows. Claudia Sheinbaum tries to leave her mark without breaking the mirror of the Fourth Transformation, while López Obrador, from Palenque, still pulls the strings of the national narrative. Thus they build the political future of Mexico, which for this simple matter seems unstable. Time will show if Sheinbaum finally becomes the author of her own story or if in the end the script is dictated by AMLO.