In the picture
Hezbollah militants in a training exercise in Aaramta, southern Lebanon, May 2023 [Tasmin].
Since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza in response to Hamas attacks on October 7, Hezbollah has been mounting regular drone and missile offensives from southern Lebanon. These attacks have been directed both against military targets and launched indiscriminately into northern Israel. Consequently, Israeli forces have responded with heavy aerial and artillery bombardment. As result of the fighting, at least 60,000 people have been displaced from the Lebanese border area. Are we on the verge of a second front?
The United Nations (UN) has warned about the real possibility of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon: hostilities and the exchange of threats between the two countries do not cease, and are even increasing. The UN describes this scenario as "worrying" and recognizes that a military solution is not viable to resolve the existing tension on the disputed border between Israel and Lebanon, known as the Blue Line, which is under the supervision of the United Nations.
Israel has already mobilized 50,000 reservists and says it is prepared for "very strong action" against Lebanon. However, tensions and confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah are nothing new.
Origins of the rivalry and war of 2006
Hezbollah is a Shiite political-military organization based in Lebanon, founded in 1982 in response to the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. It emerged with the goal to fight against Israel and eliminate its presence in the region, as well as to promote the interests of the Lebanese Shiite population. Since 2006, it also has a political arm, and has achieved an important role in Lebanese politics.
It is undeniable that the current war in Gaza has exacerbated tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, which has expressed its support for the Palestinian people. The tension, however, is not new; in recent decades, the area has witnessed intermittent clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli army. The latest took place in 2006; that year, Hezbollah militants carried out a cross-border attack that resulted in the death of eight Israeli soldiers and the kidnapping of two more. Hezbollah demanded at the time the release of Lebanese prisoners as a condition for the release of the Israeli soldiers, but Israel responded with swift and forceful offensives.
The war ended in about a month, with UN Security committee resolution 1701, which established a ceasefire and reinforced UNIFIL, the UN Force Provisional in Lebanon. This peacekeeping mission statement was intended to help enforce the ceasefire and facilitate the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Despite the ceasefire, tensions continued between Israel and Hezbollah in the years that followed.
Fear of escalation
Last February, the Israel Defense Forces bombed for the first time Hezbollah targets outside the region of southern Lebanon, bordering the State of Israel, where daily artillery crossings between the pro-Iranian training and the Israeli army have been taking place since the beginning of the war in Gaza. The attacks were concentrated in the Baalbek region of eastern Lebanon. This region, in the vicinity of the Syrian border, is a fiefdom of Hezbollah, where it has a prominent military presence.
On the other hand, the leader of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, declared that he would suspend bombings on Israeli territory as long as a truce was reached in Gaza. However, Yoav Gallant, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that attacks against Hezbollah could increase, even if a ceasefire agreement is reached with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. He has also stated that the only goal is to drive Hezbollah away from the Israeli border, either through diplomatic negotiations or by force.
Diplomats from the United States and European nations have presented various initiatives in the hope of reaching a agreement that would end the border dispute. The main proposals revolve around the withdrawal of Hezbollah to within a few kilometers of the border, a reinforced Lebanese army presence in the border region, and negotiation regarding border points where Lebanon claims Israel has occupied small areas since its withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. These plans could eventually lead to the delimitation of the land border between Lebanon and Israel, after a agreement on maritime boundaries was reached in 2022. Lebanon is evaluating these proposals, and Hezbollah leaders have indicated their willingness to consider it, although both the government and the armed group have made it clear that there will be no border agreement until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.
Fears of escalation seemed to be realized when in April Iran attacked Israel directly, for the first time, launching missiles from its own territory. While there was a counterattack by Israel, its moderate response has allowed both countries to maintain their dignity and claim success in deterring the adversary, returning to the sort of covert warfare they maintained until the bombing in Damascus that triggered the escalation.
Still, with respect to the conflict with Hezbollah, although clashes between Israel and Hezbollah were initially restricted to border areas, both sides have struck deeper into their respective territories. Moreover, the war rhetoric has escalated recently, with attacks that have provoked extensive forest fires on both sides of the border, affecting residential areas.
Israel's military chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, has assured that Israel is already prepared to "go on the offensive" in its fighting with Hezbollah along the border. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that his country is prepared "for a very strong action in the north", promising that, one way or another, he will restore security in the north.
Hezbollah, for its part, has reaffirmed that it does not intend to escalate the conflict with Israel, although it is prepared to face war if forced. "Any Israeli expansion of the war against Lebanon will cause devastation, destruction and displacement in Israel," said Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's issue two. "If Israel wants to wage an all-out war, we are ready for it."
What to expect
There is no doubt that this confrontation has become one of the main sources of instability in the Middle East, and the conflict in Gaza has only worsened the status.
Since the October 7 attacks, the international community fears that the conflict could provoke a chain reaction in the region and thus further clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon, or even another open and direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. However, Israel is occupied in Gaza and would not be interested in opening a second or third front, especially when its reputation is being damaged internationally by the devastating war against Hamas. Netanyahu's statements would attempt to reduce internal pressures and satisfy the demands of the populations affected by the conflict, who are asking for greater assertiveness in the Israeli army's responses.
On the other hand, the United States, an important ally of Israel in terms of security, is trying to avoid an escalation and open war in the region. Despite maintaining its support, Biden is sample reluctant to back certain operations (as in Rafah) or attacks (counter-attack on Iran), pausing in the shipment of arms to Israel, one of the fundamental pillars of the alliance between the two countries. It remains to be seen, therefore, whether Israel is willing to go ahead even without the full backing of its most prominent ally.
On the other hand, Iran, as Hezbollah's main sponsor , will have significant influence. If Iran decides to use its Lebanese 'proxie' to increase pressure on Israel, the status could escalate rapidly. Iran will want Hezbollah not to lose its influence and strength in order to indirectly confront and weaken Israel.
Finally, although the current status points to the real possibility of escalation, several factors may influence the development of events. The international community plays a crucial role in trying to mediate and prevent an all-out war, although the effectiveness of these efforts is uncertain. So is the feasibility of dealing with different conflict scenarios and addressing public opinion. Therefore, although the continuation of border attacks seems to be the most likely scenario in the short term, the possibility of a controlled escalation or even an all-out war cannot be completely ruled out.