The fear created by Trump stops illegal immigration arrivals in their tracks

The arrival of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border has been drastically reduced since Trump's return to the White House. His aggressive policy of arrests and expulsions of undocumented immigrants, who in many cases had been living in the U.S. for years, has had an immediate deterrent effect. Although the deportation Issue is currently below Biden's and almost on par with Obama's record periods, it has been above all the psychological and social impact of the bad attention and abuse exhibited in the raids that has stopped the migratory flow to the former 'promised land': the fear that the American dream is actually going to be a terrible nightmare.

Rhetoric, media blitz and deterrence policies have succeeded in substantially reducing the issue of people attempting to sneak across the southwest US border (the border with Mexico). The count of 'encounters', as the US border authority calls the interception of these immigrants (it previously used the term 'apprehensions'), sample a B drop, from a monthly peak of 300,000 in December 2023, during the Biden Administration, to around only 10,000 being recorded monthly since the start of the new Trump Administration.

During his first term, from January 2017 to January 2021, Trump heavily publicized his promised wall for the border with Mexico, but the pressure from migrant caravans arriving from Central America did not stop. Only at the end of the presidency did some policies such as those agreed with Mexico and the Central American Northern Triangle begin to have some effect. In his second term, Trump has opted for the big impact: indiscriminate raids by immigration agents in the suburbs of major cities, with vexatious and intimidating attention , which has frightened a good part of the migrant population, even those residing in the country legally.

Deportation operations have been in the news continuously, alarming the estimated 14 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. on a daily basis. In September, the department of Homeland Security announced that 400,000 deportations had been carried out and that 1.4 million immigrants had "self-deported" for fear of being expelled without notice or even, in some cases, being transferred to prisons in other countries such as El Salvador; in other words, in 250 days two million illegal aliens had left the country.

Collapse of arrivals

The alarm over this status has cut short the flow of new illegal migrants to the US. Comparing the data of 'encounters' of the first nine months of Trump's second term with the data of former President Biden in the same period in 2021, there is a big change in immigration. While in the start of the Biden administration there were 643,590 'encounters' under degree scroll 8 of the Immigration Act (January-September 2021), in Trump's administration only 147,139 took place (January-September 2025). In other words, considering the same period and context of both, there has been a drop in the number of 'encounters' at the southwest border of 77.13%. This seems to indicate that the aggressive anti-immigrant policies and rhetoric of the new Administration are achieving their purpose of deterring the migrant population from attempting to enter the country.

The graph prepared by the US Customs and Border Protection (US Customs and Border Protection) reflects this drop very well, with a complete collapse of the issue of people who are intercepted when they try to enter the country illegally in January 2025, the month in which Trump took office again and began his drastic immigration policy. The 'encounters' fell below 20,000 per month and have been maintained at that reduced level in successive months (it has always been assumed that the issue of apprehensions is a direct index of immigration pressure).

On the other hand, it should be noted that during Biden's term in office there was no year in which the number of 'encounters' did not increase in relation to the previous year, although the increase was not uniform. From 2022 to 2023 there was an increase of 55.54%, while from 2023 to 2024 it was 11.64%.

When analyzing the immigrant profile in each presidency, it is observed that during Biden's term the most prominent categories among migrants from various countries corresponded to individuals in a family unit (FMUA) or unaccompanied alien children (UAC). However, since Trump's arrival in all countries the predominant category is single adults, representing at least 43%.

Thus, with the tightening of immigration measures, not only are there fewer people trying to enter the country, but also the subject immigrants is changing, with the majority being adults. This is coherent, since in the face of the uncertainty caused by the greater difficulties in successfully crossing the border, single adults who have no one to depend on them are more willing to go ahead with the attempt.

Darien and reverse migration

The reduction of 'encounters' at the border with Mexico does not imply that migratory flows have disappeared. Push and pull factors continue to operate and instead of pushing migrants to travel to a new country, they are paradoxically serving to abandon their route. In this way, Trump's policies are acting as a 'pull' factor not towards a new country, but back to their home country in a phenomenon known as reverse migration.

In that sense, the deterrent effect is not only seen at the US border, but along the entire migratory route. The Darien Gap - the dense jungle on Panama's border with Colombia, in recent years a symbol of the massive flow from South America to North America - has seen its transits drop below 3,000 in the first months of 2025, in drastic contrast to the 263,296 recorded during the same period in 2024. Statements from both Panamanian and Colombian authorities confirm this new return flow from the US or from transit countries to their countries of origin. The Panamanian government closed the Darien Pass route in March.

This trend is also supported by UNHCR monitoring. In March 2024, UNHCR stated that 8 out of 10 respondents expressed that, if they were unable to reach their destination country, they would wait to be allowed to proceed. By contrast, in January 2025, only 2 out of 3 respondents stated that they would wait, a reduction of 13.34%. data such as this reveals the hopelessness of transit to the US and shows that migrants are increasingly less likely to value staying in transit countries, preferring to return to their home country.

Perception

At the core of President Trump's strategy are deportations and threats of deportation. These measures are of real importance, as they are concrete actions carried out by the department of Homeland Security through law enforcement agencies such as ICE, OFO and USBP, to remove people from the country and address migration in the most extreme way.

However, the data reveal a paradox: the Trump administration does not deport the most. The stated goal of 600,000 deportations for the first year of Trump's return to the White House would not surpass the record of FY 2024 under the Biden Administration, which was nearly 700,000 deportations. In fact, the latest figure offered by Homeland Security on October 27, 2025 of 527,000 deportations in the first ten months of the presidency would also be below those carried out by President Obama in FY 2014, with 577,295 deportations, although these would likely be surpassed by the completion of 2025.

It is important to remember that, in migration, one of the most important aspects are perceptions, since in the end migrants do not know the reality of the destination country and only know about it through the news that reaches them. In this way, by exploiting perceptions, it would seem that the Trump Administration is achieving its goal of curbing immigration at its southwest border.

This perception is also affecting the U.S. population of immigrant origin living legally in the country, especially those of Hispanic origin, who are in the majority. The elections held on November 6 for the mayoralty of New York and the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey revealed the disaffection of a part of the Latino voter who a year earlier had supported Trump's election.