The Catholic Church, with more than a billion faithful, is not only a spiritual institution; it is also a major geopolitical actor. This was demonstrated by John Paul II, whose firm stance against communism played a crucial role in the fall of the Berlin Wall - and has been reaffirmed by Pope Francis with a different voice, closer to the Global South, more uncomfortable for the hegemonic powers.

With the death of Pope Francis, a period of reflection and maneuvering has begun. The choice of his successor is not only an internal Vatican affair; it is also a geopolitical question. Who will occupy the throne of St. Peter at a time when religion is once again being instrumentalized, democracies are receding and the global poles are moving dangerously far apart?

During his pontificate, Francis prioritized the forgotten: the poor, the migrants, the indigenous peoples, those marginalized by a profoundly unequal global system. And he did so not only with gestures, but with a clear doctrine focused on positioning the Church as an advocate for social and environmental justice. His encyclical Laudato si, published in 2015, was a milestone in the relationship between religion and climate change, making the Vatican an unexpected ally of the global environmental diary .

But Pope Francis has also been an uncomfortable figure for the great powers. His refusal to align himself with the Trump administration's plans to overthrow Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, especially his distance from the figure of Juan Guaidó, reflected a diplomatic approach more inclined to mediation than confrontation. This "non-aligned" style has been applauded by some and criticized by others, but it has undoubtedly reinforced the Pope's image as a moral leader in times of polarization.

The new Pope will face an even more polarized world. Religion has returned to the forefront, but not as a space for reconciliation, but as a political weapon. In Europe and the United States, extreme right-wing parties are instrumentalizing Christian symbols in a core topic of identity and exclusion. In Latin America, meanwhile, Catholicism is losing strength in the face of the evangelical boom, especially in urban and popular areas.

Added to this is the global crisis of democracy and a diplomatic environment marked by the return of Donald Trump to the center of global politics. His transactional negotiating style, based on confrontation, represents a direct challenge to the positions of Pope Francis on relevant issues such as immigration, climate change or international cooperation.

In the midst of this global reconfiguration, the new Vatican leadership will be defined between three possible paths: a more moral approach that could be well received by the identitarian right; an Asian Pope that reinforces the geopolitical projection of the Church; or the continuity of Francis' bequest , with a pontiff more focused on social issues and inequality, both in the West and in the Global South.

While in the West the Church seems to be retreating, in Asia it is gaining relevance. The Philippines, India, South Korea and Vietnam show an increasingly active presence, and in the case of China - despite tensions - the Vatican is exploring ways to maintain its influence.

In this context of global disengagement between the West and Asia, where strategic skill has replaced multilateral dialogue, the Catholic Church can play an unexpected role: that of a spiritual and diplomatic bridge between two blocs that are less and less in dialogue.

Unlike other international actors, the Church does not need to exercise economic or military power to be relevant. Its influence depends on its moral credibility, its ability to build bridges and its willingness to stand above bloc logics. This uniqueness makes it an atypical geopolitical actor, but with a unique capacity to act as an interlocutor between opposing blocs.

The new pontiff, whoever he or she is, will have to navigate these tensions, revitalize the institution from within and maintain the Church's voice as a moral reference in an increasingly fragmented world.

In times of fragmentation, uncertainty and noise, moral leadership remains a rare commodity. And very few have the Pope's global microphone.