Vatican ceremonial precisely arranges each and every detail concerning the opening and development of the Conclave. After the Mass "pro eligendo Pontifice", this very afternoon the cardinals will gather in the Pauline Chapel and from there they will march towards the Sistine Chapel singing the Litany of the Saints. After proceeding to the oath of silence, the ceremonial officer will close the doors to the cry of "Extra omnes", everyone out! From then on, absolute secrecy.

Perhaps generations from now it will be possible to know the details of the scrutinies. In the meantime, Catholics can only pray that the cardinals will be correct in their choice. For, although they must not lack the light of the Holy Spirit, their decision is absolutely free and staff, their conscience being burdened by the enormous responsibility of voting for the one they consider most suitable to guide the helm of the Church at the beginning of the third millennium.

In the history of the Popes there are very few elections carried out in first ballot. We can remember the case of Julius II, elected on November 1, 1503 in what is considered the shortest conclave ever held, since it lasted only ten hours. Since then it has not happened again. Pius XII, elected on March 2, 1939 (incidentally, his 63rd birthday) on the second day of the conclave, is the closest, although three ballots were necessary, as was the case for the election of John Paul I in August 1978. Four were needed for the election of Benedict XVI.

If it is almost impossible to be elected on the first ballot, how important can this scrutiny be? Very important, since it will mark the course of the Conclave. If a name appears in an outstanding and resounding way, it is almost certain that it will obtain more votes in the following ballots and with a certain speed it will obtain the absolute majority, as it happened in 2005 with Cardinal Ratzinger.

If instead of one, there are two purpurates with a similar number of votes, issue , the scrutiny can be narrowed down and a compromise solution can be found. It is possible, finally, that if there is no name that stands out, the votes will be repeated until, after the thirty-third or thirty-fourth ballot, the choice will be made between the two cardinals with the highest issue of support. If so, the Conclave could be prolonged, which is not desirable.