Published in
Diario de Navarra, Heraldo de Aragón, Diario Montañés, El Norte de Castilla and El Día de Tenerife.
Santiago de Navascués
Professor of Contemporary History
One thing is clear: the so-called "cordons sanitaires" in politics work. In the French elections, with record turnout, the far-left New Popular Front coalition has avoided a majority of the far-right National Rally party, and between the two is the centrist coalition led by Emmanuel Macron, Ensemble. The latter has managed to revive in the second round, but faces a scenario of difficult governability.
In this respect, it seems that nothing is going to change in France. The country is at a technical deadlock that is difficult to overcome. But why are the extremes growing and the center shrinking?
These elections show that France is experiencing an unprecedented social crisis, of which the triumph of the extreme left is only a symptom. Several analysts explain a common patron saint in this social revolt that threatens the values of the French Republic. The enfant terrible of French literature in our days, Michel Houellebecq, recently pointed out that in France "a revolt of the people against these elites" is taking place, with an increasingly civil war atmosphere. This social division can be seen in the issues that most concern citizens: inflation, followed by crime, citizen insecurity and the control of migratory flows.
This last topic is perhaps the one that most radically divides the left-right options, and raises the complex discussion on the secularity of the French State. Since the Revolution, the French Republic continues to impose the values of liberty and equality as a necessary dogma for the assimilation of immigrant populations, allowing the nationalization of children born of foreign parents. However, the growing advance of the Muslim population challenges the system whereby mere nationalization should produce "free and equal" citizens.
Thus, while the extreme left does not see Islam as a danger to the values of secularism, the right is finding more and more reasons to oppose its advance. This may be the best way to understand the division between the extreme left and the extreme right: a fracture between two models of society in a country that claims to be a defender of the values of freedom and equality.
Mélenchon's party is the preferred party of the Muslim population and Le Pen's party intends to champion the anti-immigration cause in defense of Republican values. Thus, the New Popular Front has promised to repeal the pension and immigration reforms and to create a rescue agency for undocumented immigrants and to facilitate visa applications. National Rally, on the other hand, calls for tighter border controls and reduced immigration. His party offers a more liberal approach towards social issues and is positioning itself in an increasingly centrist position and this evolution may also explain the success of AN, which has gone from 4 to 10 million votes in two years.
It is not superfluous to recall the wise words of Alexis de Tocqueville on the exhaustion of political ideas after the French Revolution. In one of the most famous chapters of Democracy in America, he argued that the democracies of the future will essentially be societies of class average , which maintain a certain revolutionary impulse, but have much to lose from social fracture.
The task is to identify whether France has really reached a point of malaise so serious as to justify a rupture by extremes. Despite his impassive image of centrism and neutrality, Macron has taken measures that we would have considered radical in other circumstances. At the beginning of 2021, he closed several border crossings with Spain and a few months ago decreed curfews for minors in troubled municipalities.
Thierry de Montbrial, director of the CRSI (Centre de réflexion sur la sécurité intérieure), wrote an open letter to the president warning that the country is "on the brink of the abyss" because of the "cowardice and renunciations" of the State in defending its citizens.
Macron has barely survived this latest round of elections, but he seems unlikely to survive in the long term unless he mends the country's increasingly obvious rifts. A few months ago, his priority was to contain violent unrest; last week, to contain the advance of the far right. The political speech changes, but the problems remain. So far, the political elites have been unable to produce an assimilationist speech that clearly states that immigrants must be equal to the French, whether they want it or not. The elitist speech on the right to difference and unrestricted tolerance generates incoherence and anxiety in the country that, a little more than two centuries ago, wanted to consecrate the universal rights of humanity.