Dr. Arinze Nwokolo presented last Monday, October 16 his thesis Essays in Development Economics: On Civil Conflict in Nigeria. His doctoral study, directed by Professor Full Professor of Econometrics and Director of department of Quantitative Methods at School of Economics, Luis Alberiko, focused on the economic costs caused by the three fronts of conflict in Nigeria: the attacks on oil in the south; the presence of the group terrorist Boko Haram in the north and that of the Fulani nomads in the middle belt of the country.

Nearly three-quarters of Nigeria's GDP comes from the oil industry. Attacks on power plants in the south present a serious economic threat to a country so dependent on black gold. "I wanted to find out whether international fluctuations in the price of oil affected the civil conflict in Nigeria," says Dr. Nwokolo. His analysis sample that an increase in price produces an escalation of conflict provoked by militants based in the Niger Delta. "They are more likely to attack civilians and the government because they increase their profit," he adds. The newly proclaimed doctor's main conclusion is that Nigeria urgently needs to diversify its revenue sources. Dr. Nwokolo asserts that this is necessary not only for economic reasons, something very much justified in contemporary literature, but also to curb the cycle of violent attacks between Niger Delta militants and the Nigerian government. "If the importance of oil on the Economics decreases the government will not respond as brutally to attacks as they do at present," he explains.

If we travel to northern Nigeria we find the second focus of conflict analyzed by Dr. Nwokolo. The abduction of the Chibok girls by the terrorist group Boko Haram captured international attention in 2014, and since then bomb attacks have been recurrent. In his analysis, the doctor wanted to analyze how these attacks affected the birth of babies. "We found that the baby's weight is reduced in the first trimester by eleven grams and four grams in the third trimester," he claims. "This sample that Boko Haram activities not only bring death, but also affect the future life of children who are exposed to group during their mother's pregnancy." The long-term effects deadline of terrorist group violence cannot yet be studied because it is a more or less recent phenomenon, but Dr. Nwokolo says he is interested in studying the possible effects of terror on the Education, the employment and the mental health of those living in areas with high levels of terror.

The last part of the thesis doctoral dissertation analyzes the strategies used by families that are victims of the Fulani militant conflict to ensure food consumption. "We found that those households exposed to the conflict experienced a 17% reduction in their food consumption," says Dr. Nwokolo. "However, those who are victims receive remittances from abroad and save some of it and the money in informal groups in the face of the uncertain future ahead." The increase in conflict in Nigeria between 2010 and 2016 is due to the activity of the three aforementioned groups. In 2014 Fulani militants killed 847 people, 92% of whom were civilians, and were listed as the fourth group most dangerous terrorist in the world by the Global Terrorism Index.

The panel that judged the thesis was formed by five prestigious experts in the subject: Professor Javier Gardeazabal of the University of the Basque Country; Professor Christos Kollias of the University of Thesally; Professor Macartan Humphreys of Columbia University and WZB, Berlin; Adjunct Professor Mirko Abbritti of the University of Navarra and Adjunct Professor Pedro Mendi, also of the University of Navarra. Dr. Nwokolo's work was recognized by the panel, which awarded him a grade of A.