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Víctor Pou, Professor at IESE Business School, University of Navarra

Latvia joins the euro

Sat, 01 Feb 2014 15:58:00 +0000 Published in La Vanguardia

Latvia has joined the euro zone as a member state issue eighteen. It is the second former Soviet country to adopt the single currency. The first was Estonia in 2011. Latvia's decision is highly significant, as it comes at a time of open geostrategic confrontation in the Eastern European territories located between Moscow and Brussels.

Today's Russia is an attempt to rebuild the empire lost after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, considered by Putin as "the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century". The three Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - have already slipped through his fingers with their accession to the EU. The dispute is now in the other six states: Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Latvia has done its homework by applying the Brussels prescriptions in an exemplary manner
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All six are part of the so-called association East, an integral part of the EU Neighborhood Policy. Of these, the jewel in the crown is Ukraine. Aware of its great importance, Putin has made a strong bid to keep Ukraine in his sphere of influence. Ukrainian leader Yanukovych has rejected the European proposal of a agreement from association and has opted to receive an immediate financial aid from Russia for $15 billion and a substantial reduction in the price of gas. But Putin's victory is more apparent than real. The Ukrainian Economics is in crisis and will soon need new aid to avoid collapse. There will continue to be large pro-European demonstrations and rejection of Moscow's blackmail. A democratic Ukraine would constitute a serious danger for Putin's autocratic regime. So far, he has managed to keep Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan at bay with the same arguments, but he has not been able to prevent Moldova and Georgia from signing agreements with the EU. This is how the chips are stacked on the great geopolitical chessboard of Eastern Europe.

Latvia has entered the euro zone with its homework done. Its budget deficit is 1%, well below the 3% limit set by Brussels, its public debt is also far from the European ceilings at 40% of GDP, inflation is leave and growth forecasts exceed 4%. It has been able to overcome the deep crisis experienced between 2008 and 2010, which led to the destruction of 24% of GDP, and has done so by applying in an exemplary manner the Brussels recipes: austerity, adjustments, internal devaluation and structural reforms. As EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said, "Latvia is entering the euro zone through the front door". But Latvia still feels the breath of Moscow's imperialism close at hand, especially in the form of its almost total gas dependence on Russia.