All data from the United States and the EU suggest a rather weak second semester of 2010.

Every time the vacations are over I agreement of an old joke of Forges. Two civil servants meet in the elevator on the first day of work. After the usual questions about the vacations, one comments: "And now, the return to ordinary life..." And the other says: "I'm going to make it easier for you to get back to work. Anvil of a silversmith: tas". (This is a frequent word, and not an easy one, in crossword puzzles).

As you and I have also closed our 2010 vacations, I would like to help you in the rentrée. That's why I thought I'd make a little map of what the Economics has in store for us in the coming months. Too bad what I'm about to tell you won't be a joke, but something rather sad. Take comfort in the fact that we economists are always wrong when we predict the future: we do not know what will happen, but we can explain why we think what we say will happen will happen.

In any case, even Paul the octopus will agree with agreement that the next few months are going to be very weak, and not only in Spain. In the United States, there is talk of the possibility of a relapse into recession, i.e. another couple of quarters of negative growth: a few weeks ago, both Goldman Sachs and Pimco experts gave this unfortunate result a 25% probability, which is not insignificant. It is significant that the US Economics , which was growing at a rate of 5% at the end of 2009, only grew by 1.6% in the second quarter of this year. After this, it does not seem logical to expect a dazzling rebound.

In the European Union, the joy is not greater, despite the positive figures from Germany and France: Europe is a continent with many countries, and with notable differences between the 3.5% growth expected in Sweden in 2010 and Greece's -4%. Emerging countries are maintaining high growth, especially in Asia and Latin America, and fears of accelerated inflation have moderated thanks to tighter policies. In particular, the Chinese authorities have been better able to control growth, which was excessive.

All this suggests a rather sluggish second semester of 2010, for many reasons. Households and companies are still heavily indebted - in Spain, for example - so a strong recovery in consumption is not to be expected, especially where unemployment is still rising - Spain, again - and where there is no expectation of a recovery from employment (USA). The real estate sector has not yet bottomed out in Spain; housing prices will continue to fall.

Companies are starting to have investment projects, but are in no hurry to implement them, because demand is not going to grow, except perhaps in exports. The sectors that grew with artificial life, such as housing in the U.S. and automobiles in Spain, are once again at status delicate. At final, the buoyancy of the past few years has given way to a lack of appetite.

Families and companies are not buying, and neither are governments, because the international markets will only provide them with financing if they show a clear willingness to reduce their indebtedness. And this means reducing the public expense and raising taxes. When we saw the VAT hike approaching, we may have exaggerated its negative impact, but there is no doubt that fiscal consolidation will subtract a few tenths of a percentage point from growth in the coming months. And, just in case, keep an eye on the US deficit, which is shrinking too slowly, and this may alarm the markets.

There is a third major cause of the loss of economic momentum: financial problems. Especially in Europe, which suffered greatly from the crisis of its banks, first, and then its public debt. After the solvency or stress tests, the confidence of the international markets in our banks and savings banks has returned, at least in part, and they are once again receiving financing; the specter of bankruptcy or, at least, suspension of payments has receded. But this does not mean that our financial system is healthy and ready for a new degree program. The credit will continue to be scarce.

Will there be new financial stress? I suppose so, of course. Some European banks will take on water; the Greek debt problem is not completely solved¿ The risk premium will remain high. We remain under observation...

I apologize for this bleak outlook. But I promised you a road map, and what can be expected of it is that it will be realistic. You won't find gas stations for many kilometers, the road surface is in bad shape, and it will rain. But remember what the road was like just a year ago: if we've made it this far, I think we can make it to our goal. In the meantime, relax, drive carefully, play with the children, keep an eye on the car's indicators and obey the traffic rules. And another day I will tell you about the good things we can get out of our trip.