The question seems to be a must these days in discussions and debates: will there be a Russian invasion? The answer will be left to the arúspices; these lines will limit themselves to outlining some of the keys to the current situation in Eastern Europe, leaving it up to each individual to draw the conclusions they consider most plausible.

It is worth starting by pointing out the importance of Russia's western neighbour. Ukraine occupies a central place in Russia's collective report , for it was in Kiev that the Rus was established that began the historical journey of today's Russia; Catherine the Great incorporated - by Russifying it - the territory into the Russian empire; and in the 20th century it constituted an important part of the Soviet Union until Moscow, powerless and humiliated, had to attend its independence in 1991. 

Over and above sentimental issues, Ukraine has historically been the gateway to entrance invasions that have sought to reach Moscow from the West, and thus an essential part of Russia's security glacis. Moreover, control of the Crimean peninsula gives it, through the important port of Odessa, vital access to the warm waters of the Black Sea, and brings it closer to the Russian-controlled Moldovan region of Transnistria.

Demographically, as a result of the Russification policy practised by some of Russia's rulers throughout its history, Ukraine has an 18% Russian population, mostly concentrated in the south-eastern part of the country and the Crimean peninsula.

All of these issues make Ukraine an integral part of Russia's identity and security system core topic . Keeping the country within what Moscow considers to be its 'sphere of influence' is therefore a vital interest for the country, which cannot allow Kiev to escape from its control.

Since the collapse of the USSR, Russia, the heir to the Union, has watched with increasing frustration as the safety belt that protected it has crumbled. One by one, the countries that made up the Warsaw Pact, and some of the former Soviet republics, have fled Russia's orbit and entered the West, whose institutions they joined in search of prosperity and security.

This is precisely what the government in Kiev is trying to do after the attempt at rapprochement with NATO and the EU that was tried in 2014 and ended with the Russian occupation of Crimea and the Donbas region, and which would have prompted Moscow to deploy more than 100,000 men and numerous combat assets near Ukraine's border with Russia and Belarus in order to demand firm guarantees from the West that Ukraine will never join NATO, which would almost certainly be a casus belli for Russia.

If, on that occasion, Russia tried to stave off this possibility with actions it denied direct responsibility for - with little credibility - it is now raising the stakes by making an undisguised show of force along its border with Ukraine to convince Kiev and the West of the seriousness of its intentions, and to make a maximalist demand that the United States and the Alliance have been quick to reject as unacceptable for violating Ukraine's right to sovereignty.

Faced with Russian demands, the West presents a fractured front. The EU, internally divided on the issue, takes a secondary role, with President Macron seeking a negotiated exit that does not jeopardise the gas supplies on which the EU is so dependent. NATO, not legally bound to Ukraine's security, has no appetite to intervene directly on its behalf - which in itself speaks eloquently about how important Ukrainian security is to the allies - so the US-led deterrence effort is focused on military reinforcement of Ukraine to try to defend itself and the promise of tough economic sanctions on Russia, on which there is also no consensus among Western allies.

The time that has passed since the crisis began, and Vladimir Putin's own attitude and rhetoric, arguing that he has no intention of invading, suggest that there is still a narrow margin for understanding. However, Putin's terms of engagement make it difficult to envisage a de-escalation, which, if it were to happen without further ado, would seriously damage his reputation and credibility. 

It is not unreasonable to think of the possibility that, behind closed doors, an agreement could be reached to grant Russia some kind of guarantee subject that would sufficiently satisfy its security needs, and that could be accompanied by a public gesture from the Ukrainian government or even some limited Russian military action to ensure its control of the Russian zone of Ukraine, which, one can imagine, would be tolerated by the United States - not without protest, of course.

As time passes, the world holds its breath as Russia and Ukraine intensify their military activity in the border area. While awaiting a negotiated solution to the conflict, it is advisable to proceed with extreme caution so as not to worsen the status, in the hope that neither an incident nor an accident will occur that could precipitate a status as unstable as the one currently being experienced in the region.