Four months of reduction in registered unemployment is an encouraging series, but is it temporary or sustained? The analysis is not easy. Moreover, the excessive optimism of other times has inoculated us against the so-called green shoots. We must therefore be cautious. However, neither is it necessary for Economics to follow pessimistic trends as a dismal science. Registered unemployment in June fell by 127,248 people. A historic monthly drop. This has caused the Government to throw the bells into the air. However, the increase in Social Security affiliates, which better expresses the creation of employment, has not been to throw rockets. Only 26,853. In any case, we must wait for the EPA for the second quarter to have a better analysis. Because the registered unemployment does not count the people who are looking for work without registering with the former Inem, today Public Service of employment. It seems that they will also be data good.

The improvement of data should be confirmed in September and October.

But both data may be seasonal. Are they due to summer jobs, essentially temporary? Tourism, agriculture, construction? Or are they stable jobs? Permanent contracts have not exceeded 10%. But that is not significant, because in Spain temporary contracts with the same or different people are chained. At least until the Inspection of work takes seriously this anomaly of our labor market or until the dismissal of temporary and permanent contracts is equalized, ending the duality that all experts denounce.

To know whether this creation of work is solid or evanescent, we will have to wait until September-October. Every year, when summer falls, temporary contracts come to an end. This means that unemployment increases by about 100,000 people. If this year there were far fewer, it would indicate that the recovery is on the way. In any case, the figure should not be underestimated. It would be worse if it were lower or negative. Only one year into the crisis did unemployment grow in June, and it was terrible. Of course, at that time there were not 4.7 million registered unemployed.

One last fact: of those 4.7 million, only 2.8 million were receiving benefits. There are, therefore, almost two million unemployed without this benefit. This is the road to long-term unemployment and social exclusion. And not all of them are young or foreign and can emigrate or return to their countries. This is a social problem that will have to be addressed, while waiting for the announced recovery.