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José Luis Álvarez Arce, Director of department of Economics of Economics and Business Administration.

Caution in the face of encouraging data

Thu, 03 Oct 2013 09:06:00 +0000 Published in Navarra Newspaper

AYER we knew the data of registered unemployment corresponding to last September. According to these official statistics, the issue of unemployed people in Navarre would be 50,407, with a decrease of 318 people compared to August. Likewise, the issue of indefinite contracts would have gone from the 467 signed in August to the 1,256 signed in September, a figure very similar to the increase experienced by the registrations in the Social Security.

The data is positive, as it provides some relief in what we can and should consider to be the worst problem of our Economics. It should also be borne in mind that this is the seventh consecutive month of falling unemployment figures, after having reached an all-time high in February. A maximum that, in any case, continues to condition the evolution in annual terms, since in September of this year there were 730 more unemployed people than in the same month of 2012.

Of course, the question to be asked is whether this new reduction is cause for optimism, especially when other indicators seem to suggest that this second recession is whether this new reduction is cause for optimism, especially when other indicators seem to suggest that we have reached the bottom of this second recession of the crisis and are now at a turning point. There are certainly variables whose recent trajectory clarifies somewhat the dark panorama that we had ahead of us half a year ago. We could mention, among those of greatest interest for Navarra, those related to Europe.

If Europe pulls the prolonged recession suffered during the last year and a half by the European Union and, specifically, by the Euro zone, hit Navarre hard. It was a recession with a marked industrial character. And our region is especially sensitive to this subject of 'shocks', since we have a productive fabric in which industry has a great weight.
industry. In addition, our main trading partners are in Europe.

For all these reasons, the end of the European recession last quarter and the progressive recovery that has been observed in the continent's industry should help us to get closer to the surface in the coming months. To the extent that this recovery consolidates in Navarre, it should also pave the way for positive growth in the coming quarters, fees .

We will have to be on the lookout for new developments and updates on various statistics. For example, we will have to wait until the 24th of this month to know the data of the survey of Active Population, which will give us more detailed information about the labor market. In any case, the reduction in unemployment is a good sign, although there is still a long way to go and we must be cautious.