We know that everything that goes up has to come down and we have the recent experience of the trajectory that oil prices took in 2008, but in an economic context like the current one (in which economic growth is not around 3% as it was three years ago, but around 0%), the question we ask ourselves is how long will it take for oil prices to come down this time?

We know that everything that goes up must come down and we have the recent experience of the trajectory that oil prices took in 2008, but in an economic context such as the current one (where economic growth is not around 3% as it was three years ago, but around 0%), the question we ask ourselves is how long will it take for oil prices to come down this time? To the speculative pressures that drove Brent prices in 2008 to over $140 per barrel must now be added the current geopolitical risks that did not exist three years ago.

Inflationary pressures

These not only exist in Tunisia, Egypt and, above all, Libya, but in recent days we have been attacked by rumors about Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Arab world, with a world market share of almost 12% and reserves of 25%. If these geopolitical risks are prolonged, or even increase, the black gold price chart may draw a horizontal trend at high levels.

At a time when the Spanish Economics is stagnant, with four and a half million unemployed, and with a year-on-year inflation rate of 3.6%, the price of crude oil would cause new inflationary pressures and the ECB would be forced to give up its announced strategy of "strong vigilance" for the irremediable rise in interest rates.

The rise in interest rates would not be the only problem facing our country, but the deficit that would be generated in our trade balance (in which crude oil represents 14%) would be very difficult to finance, especially at a time like the present, when both the public and private sectors are struggling to obtain financing.

The topic energy saving is not the only one that needs to be addressed, since energy is not only consumed in homes and on the roads, but the main problem lies in the competitiveness of Spanish companies, represented by unit production costs significantly higher than the European average , and this cannot be solved with short-term measures deadline.

A country is never prepared for a supply shock of these characteristics, but the moment in which it takes place is one of the worst possible scenarios, just when the country is trying to emerge from the first economic crisis of the 21st century, caused by the crisis of the financial system and the bursting of the real estate bubble that has caused so much damage to the Spanish Economics .

There is another aspect that international organizations should analyze with regard to the rise in crude oil prices and that is that, as has happened in other oil crises, there is a redistribution of wealth from both industrialized countries and emerging countries, whose economies are so dependent on traditional energy sources, to countries whose socio-political status is very convulsive. It cannot be ruled out that this greater wealth will lead to greater tensions in the processes of instability, transition and democratization.