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Marta Rebolledo de la Calle, Professor of Communication School

Outsiders and populism in France

The author analyzes the exceptional circumstances of these French elections, with Marine Le Pen and Macron vying for the presidency this Sunday. She considers the rise of populism to be very serious.

Thu, 04 May 2017 12:10:00 +0000 Published in The World

OF 'OUTSIDERS', populisms and movements. This is what the French electoral campaign is all about, a singular campaign if ever there was one, also because of its context due to a confluence of factors. On the one hand, it is the first time in France that a president is not running for reelection. Surely, the 4% approval rating of François Hollande by French citizens influenced this decision. On the other hand, the 30% of undecided voters is an even higher percentage compared to previous elections - it must be taken into account that there are 3.3 million young people eligible to vote for the first time; 7.4% of the electorate. However, this high issue of undecided voters does not mean that this campaign does not arouse interest. According to a survey prepared by the research center CEVIPOP of Sciences Po, 82% of the French would be interested in these presidential elections, of which 57% would even be very interested. The data concerning the issue of undecided voters, first-time voters and interest in this event reinforce the importance and necessity of the campaigns in terms of attracting votes by the political options.


But these elections will be remembered especially for the prominence of outsider candidates, the strengthening of populism and the flight of political movements against the Structures of the parties.


Several candidates have presented themselves as outsiders; two of them, the candidates facing the ballotage. Emmanuel Macron has made degree program professional outside of politics and although he held the portfolio of Economics in the Hollande government, he stayed only two years and then left, preparing the assault on the Elysée and distancing himself from everything that had to do with the management of the current Executive, somewhat reviled. In this sense, the centrist leader blames the candidate for the National Front that she is not an outsider as her party and her ideas have been given to her by her father and founder of the party, Jean-Marie Le Pen. At the same time, Marine Le Pen dissociates herself from everything considered as belonging to the establishment. Of course, her main success has been to soften and normalize the image of the National Front, distancing it from the familiar business air it had for years, as well as to consolidate a core of loyal voters.

Populism has consolidated. The French presidential election follows the line of other European countries where parties considered populist have starred in recent campaigns. Le Pen's failure to be elected president in Sunday's second round does not mean the fall of populism. If we look at the distribution of the vote in the first round, the populist vote rose to almost 50%, the latter represented mainly by Le Pen's National Front and Mélenchon's La France Insoumise movement, which fell four points behind Macron. The possible scenario between two populisms in the second round, one from the left and the other from the right, was not far-fetched. Contrast all this with the decline of the traditional parties: the Socialist Party and the Republicans have gone from almost 60% of the vote together in 2012 to 26% in these elections.

One of the causes of the deflation is precisely the emergence of new political movements: En Marche! led by Macron, and La France Insoumise, led by Mélenchon. However, depending on how one looks at it, the success of these platforms can be understood as the result of the French people's weariness with their political class . What is striking about these movements is the political spectrum they bring together. The first one represents the center and has benefited from the vote of a large part of voters who once voted for Hollande, in addition to that of former voters of the centrist Bayrou and some flows of Republicans. As for the second, it is situated to the left of the Socialists, and has also been able to pick up the vote of a part of Socialism disappointed by the management of the current government. What is curious in view of the second round is that the vote of La France Insoumise will probably be capitalized by both Macron and Le Pen; the latter aspires to win over this spectrum of the electorate through her promises concerning economic protectionism to create employment and protect the welfare state, as well as through her ecological proposals. This is a further indication of how the classic left-right ideological axis is losing force and ideological divisions, as they were understood until now, are blurring.

In this second round, the final candidates are playing their last cards by intensifying the axes of their strategy. In the last campaign events, Macron continues to defend his pro-European position and warns of the negative consequences for the country of leaving the European Union. As for the candidate of the far-right, her message is based on the defense of the interests of the French and makes immigration and security her campaign slogans. From the point of view of communication, Le Pen is an excellent pupil and knows how to orchestrate coups d'effect. An example of this is the visit she made to the workers of a business in distress in Amiens, while her rival was meeting behind closed doors with union representatives. This visit has served her to show that she is "the people's candidate" and to increase in the polls, although the margin between the two is still significant -some very serious and unexpected event would have to occur, such as a terrorist attack, for an electoral turnaround to take place-. The scenery at her events reflects her importance as a candidate along with the country of France: it is not surprising that the party's acronym is relegated to the background and her clothing is limited to the colors of the national flag.

As for Macron, several facts have puzzled the public opinion as a result of several communicative errors due to his inexperience in these matters. After knowing the results of the first round, he showed too much triumphalism: he celebrated his passage to the second round as if it were the final victory.

THE COMPARISON of this celebration with Sarkozy's party after winning the presidential election in 2007 in a distinguished place in Paris has dented his image of candidate serious and prepared with which he tries to convince, showing a person far from reality. In addition, his wife's excessive visibility in this campaign is perceived, as was evident that same evening, as if she were already the First Lady of France. This protagonist role of his spouse only encourages the interest of the people media in her intimacy and dedicates front pages to her life staff. A bad management of her privacy can pass invoice on her image as a politician in the long run deadline.

Even if Emmanuel Macron is elected 25th president of the French Republic, as all polls clearly indicate, this does not mean the end of the problems and uncertainties that beset France and, by extension, Europe. May 7 symbolizes an open door before a tangle of problems and questions that the political class and French society will have to face from the first moment to avoid harsh and irreversible consequences in the long term deadline for the country. Macron faces two major challenges after his victory. The first one will be to show his worth and credibility as a politician, and this will only come from being able to shape his movement into a real political structure in view of the legislative elections next June. Macron needs a parliamentary majority or a good result to be able to govern with a certain margin. Should this not be the case, a possible cohabitation is on the horizon. The second challenge has to do with the management of expectations. If the French expect too much from the future president, they may be very disappointed if he does not deliver. This disappointment would further undermine French society and leave more room for populism.

Next Sunday is not the end of an election, but the beginning of a new political period.