Spain may be one of the EU states furthest from Eastern Europe, but the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is being felt very closely in the Spanish food system, with the resulting knock-on effects rippling throughout the European Union. The reason is that Spain - the EU's largest importer of maize - receives around 28% of its supply from Ukraine, and then, as the EU's largest manufacturer of feed for pigs and cattle, Spain uses that maize to produce animal feed to help nourish Europe's livestock. In short, Russia's war against Ukraine is also an attack on Europe's supply of pork and other meats. Spain has four to five weeks before the maize shortage starts to affect production. If no action is taken at national and EU level, pork and meat prices, which are already rising, could lead to a social and political crisis.

Ukraine is the world's fourth largest exporter of maize and the disruption of Ukrainian supplies has sent the world market soaring. On 3 February, the price of maize on the Chicago Stock Exchange was 596 dollars per bushel, but a month later, on 3 March, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the price stood at 749 dollars, an increase of 26%. Spain receives grain from Ukraine by cargo ships, with most deliveries via the Black Sea arriving at the port of Tarragona. With activity in Ukrainian ports virtually paralysed, Spain will have to find alternative suppliers. But even if Spain can substitute Ukrainian maize, the higher prices will be difficult for the Spanish feed industry to bear and will be passed on to livestock producers. In the case of pigs, for example, feed accounts for 60-70% of production costs. By the end of 2021, the pig population in several EU markets core topic was already contracting, with a year-on-year decline of 7% in Germany and 20% in Poland. With pork prices rising and France, Portugal, Italy, Germany, the UK, Greece and the Netherlands being Spain's main feed export markets in 2020, the impact of added input costs will eventually be felt in butchers' and supermarkets across Europe.

Consumers in Spain and the rest of Europe will not easily be able to withstand a price shock of this magnitude subject in an environment of rising inflation. Spain already has an overall inflation rate of 7.4%, the highest in 33 years. Similarly, the Eurozone entered 2022 with record inflation levels, and data February 2022 has been triggered even higher. The status has been exacerbated by China's hoarding of more than half of the world's grain stores, including 65% of global corn stocks, 51% of global wheat stocks and 38% of soybean stocks, all of which are used in Chinese animal feed as well as for human consumption. Beijing's urgent need for animal feed intensified during 2021 and early 2022, as the government stepped up efforts to quickly replenish its own pig population following an African swine fever epidemic that wiped out half of the country's pigs. Rising soybean prices, exacerbated by strong demand for human consumption, have also hampered Chinese pig farmers' ability to feed their herds. Two days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's National Food and Strategic Stockpile Administration announced that it would release soybeans from its strategic reserves.

The current status in the Spanish agricultural sector is tense. Protests and mobilisations by agricultural and livestock producers' associations erupted across the country during January 2022 and culminated in demonstrations in Madrid in which a convoy of tractors, horses and ox-drawn carts paraded through the streets of the capital. The crisis may also be politicised in Spain and across Europe by those who see an opportunity to reduce meat consumption. Spain's consumer affairs minister has order citizens to eat less meat to help combat climate change. In Germany, the new government's coalition agreement states that "we will strengthen plant-based alternatives and advocate the approval of innovations such as alternative protein sources and meat substitute products in the EU". Europe can afford neither inaction nor political opportunism. The Chinese Communist Party's Central committee and China's State committee (the national cabinet) are concerned about the "large-scale resurgence of poverty" in their country due to difficulties in the agricultural sector. Policy-makers in Madrid and Brussels would do well to take a forward-looking approach and decisive action to ensure the stable functioning of the EU's agricultural production value chains.