The expected Democratic defeat in the midterm elections has occurred. It is clear that Obama is going through a rough patch. The punishment vote on Day 2 reflects, in part, his low approval ratings (44%) and the fact that a large majority of voters think the U.S. is going in the wrong direction (75%).The deterioration of the economic status and the perception that he has become cold and distant have also been major drags. The defeat admits no palliatives: the Democrats have 6 fewer senators, 8 fewer governors and...59 fewer congressmen. They have lost the congress and have come close to the disaster of losing the Senate as well. They have suffered painful defeats in states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois or Pennsylvania that were loyal to him in 2008. But Obama will have time to recover from the speech State of the Union in January. Nor is Obama the first to lose under these circumstances. In fact, the election was reminiscent of the defeats of Bush in 2006 and Bill Clinton in 1994.

What is worrisome for the Democrats is their lack of response. In January 2010, when they suffered a painful defeat in Massachusetts, they were already nine points behind the Republicans (exactly the same as now). Obama, who in 2008 was able to capture the Americans' desire for change, has insisted on turning a deaf ear. The great communicator has become incapable of listening.

The big winners have perhaps been the tea parties, in plural, because this movement is local and quite complex, far from the monolithic image that is sometimes conveyed. They reflect a commitment to lower taxes and more power for the states in the face of federal interference. They are part of a tradition that goes back to Jefferson, the principal drafter of the Declaration of Independence. Ideological considerations aside, this is a typical Internet insurgency phenomenon: a collection of local groups organized with financial aid from social networks. The tea parties were as much against Obama as they were against the Republican Party establishment, which they aspire to reform and control. After winning Republican primaries, they have also defeated some Democratic candidates, and now it will be difficult not to take them seriously. That is why the elections will have a strong impact on the future of the Republicans.

The midterm elections are a showcase for the leaders of the future: senators and governors, what Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton or Obama himself were, before the assault on the presidency. Obama's (or Hillary Clinton's.) rival may emerge from the November 2 election. Among the pledges, candidates such as the Hispanic framework Rubio (39 years old), new senator for Florida, or Rand Paul, elected senator for Kentucky, stand out. Susana Martinez, another Hispanic Republican, has become the first female governor of New Mexico. The degree program for 2012 begins.